2023 Game Thread

[Lee Stone]

If the Marlins somehow clinch a Wild Card spot, I’d do this in the 3 game WC series:

Brax
Eury
Luzardo

*if Sandy is shut down which is entirely possible

I'd go ... Gallen, L Castillo, Pablo Lopez

Seriously, if Cabrera can home in on the strike zone over his last three starts, he'd be my Number One. He's the hardest to hit.

[Namaste]

I'd go ... Gallen, L Castillo, Pablo Lopez

We wouldn’t be sniffing this Wild Card without Arraez. Fact.

[fish16]

We wouldn’t be sniffing this Wild Card without Arraez. Fact.

was just going to say that. the only place they would be playing in the playoffs without arraez for pablo and jazz for gallen would be the dominican winter league.

[fish16]

I'd go ... Gallen, L Castillo, Pablo Lopez

Seriously, if Cabrera can home in on the strike zone over his last three starts, he'd be my Number One. He's the hardest to hit.

just beyond parody at this point on cabrera over 3 guys who have been lights out this year. cabrera is going to be really good at some point if he can mature and have just average command. that's not happening in the next 3 weeks. Maybe it will be like sandy and he will improve year over year and eventually get to ace level in 2 years, but it's not going to be this year clearly.

[fish16]

i hope they dont shut eury down without having signs of fatigue, but he is currently at 119 IP. i think it would be idiotic especially with sandy out and being a half game out.

[Lee Stone]

After we get swept by Atlanta there won't be any need to worry about a playoff rotation.

[fish16]

After we get swept by Atlanta there won't be any need to worry about a playoff rotation.

from the man who brought you this team is awful and will only win 52 games based on spring training

[fish16]

braxton garrett reminds me a lot of mark buehrle. Maybe not yet with the amount of innings because he isnt built up for 200+ yet, but just the style of pitching and the pace and effectiveness he pitches with is very similar. Will likely never put up a sub 2.50 ERA but just a rock solid #3 who can shut you down on any given 5th day. Buehrle was maybe a little worse statistically but better in terms of eating innings than garrett will be. Buehrle pitched at least 30 starts and at least 198 innings in 15 straight years to end his career. Just absurdly good and durable.

Garretts control has been unreal all year. In 2021 he had 20 walks in 34 innings, last year he had 24 walks in 86 innings, this year he has just 27 walks in 149 innings. You dont need to throw 98 when you have that kind of command and with how good his curveball is. 5.4 k/bb this year

[lou]

Don't hate me. Just thinking out loud.

When would you say is time to move on from Jazz? He plays good D at two positions and has some pop while being fairly young.

But on the flipside he is constantly injured and has a meh .750 career OPS(with a .303 career OBP) and he doesn't hit LHP well.

He is an exciting and marketable player when he plays. But is he one you build around?

Yes. He has 4.2 WAR his last 566 PA. He's one of the top 50 best position players in the league as a floor, and that ignores he's one of the best economical options because he'll make nothing in arbitration and you can increase his value by benching him 30 times against left handers as his off days.

It's not over thinking it. You try and "lowball" him and sign him to a 5 year contract (2 FA years) and use the injuries against him which is the only thing you can do (this is maybe a 5/$55 deal, I think his injuries cost him $20-50m in a hypothetical buyout because it shaves his arbitration and creates risk), or take him year to year in arbitration and just be happy you had him for those years. He's too good to move and you just pray for health. And that too ignores the team is offensively starved so they can't even move him as it would be such a net loss. Big picture, I wouldn't build around him like the Tigers built around Baez in FA ($150m contract), or even the Guardians with Gimenez ($100+m contract) or Pirates with Reynolds ($100m+ contract and he's a top 30 statcast hitter), but I'd like to see them "gamble" he can stay mostly healthy with a realistic arbitration extension for a few years. The juice is well worth the squeeze if he remains upright. And I think Jazz would have to seriously think about a deal like that to still be a free agent in his prime at 30 but lock up the bag for his great great grand children even at a discount.

So the question for me is how hard do they want to mini-Buxton him to keep him upright?

In an ideal world, I like to think he's a 75+ game starter in the OF, and 50+ at DH. Build in 35+ off days against nearly all left handed pitching and that's a serious deflection of time in the field to hopefully minimize some wear and tear. That would be a good 2024 plan IMO and see how he does and optimistically he can be scaled back up for the field in 2025 if his conditioning/reckless abandonment can improve as he's a real asset out there. This creates a problem of now Soler (I imagine they are keeping on a qualifying offer) has to play in the field a bit more for those games Jazz has to DH, and Bell is a real dedicated 1B (he's not opting out), but thems the ropes and they made their decisions. The obvious answer for me is trade DLC for a right handed reliever (DLC for all his faults is going to end the year top 75 in HR in the league and power starved teams will like that batting 7th especially if he's a predominant DH, etc.) and go for Bader or Bellinger in FA to be able to handle CF. All of a sudden, they could do something like this. Starts expectations are the numbers

C ______ ? 80 / Fortes 80
1B Bell 120 / Arraez 40
2B Arraez 100 / Edwards 60
SS ______? 70 / Amaya 70 / Berti 20
3B Burger 130 / Berti 30
LF Edwards 55 / Berti 50 / Bellinger or Bader 30 / Jazz 25
CF Bellinger or Bader 110 / Jazz 50
RF Sanchez 120 / Soler 40
DH Soler 100 / Jazz 50 / Bell 10

Something like this works IMO to get Jazz off the field. It gets a real non-DLC defender into the OF, and half the time you are going to have a skeptical option in LF or RF but worse things have happened. And it's not like that isn't already the case with DLC. If they can find some SS who can hit RHP enough (I'm not trusting a 34 year old Berti and an unproven Amaya to carry the load there, even if that might work, etc.), they are in business. Because the internal pitching is ready to go where they won't have to add an arm. Assuming that SS trade is a collection of lower level guys which it should be, that offensive core could be really something. Would Bruce let them spend on Soler and a real FA though? All roads always lead back to shitty ownership. But you can do this same thing with DLC above at the end of the day and just swap Edwards more into CF. That's what I imagine happens.

[fish16]

no one's reading that

[lou]

If the Marlins somehow clinch a Wild Card spot, I’d do this in the 3 game WC series:

Brax
Eury
Luzardo

*if Sandy is shut down which is entirely possible

Might be Eury's last start of the year there. I can also see Weathers getting back quick and they combine him with Cabrera to be a 2 headed monster. Weathers stat lines last 29 innings in AAA are pretty great.

How fun will it be if they make the playoffs, Sandy is hurt, Rogers is hurt, Eury is shut down, and the team's 3rd SP is a Weathers/Cabrera combo.

[fish16]

Might be Eury's last start of the year there. I can also see Weathers getting back quick and they combine him with Cabrera to be a 2 headed monster. Weathers stat lines last 29 innings in AAA are pretty great.

How fun will it be if they make the playoffs, Sandy is hurt, Rogers is hurt, Eury is shut down, and the team's 3rd SP is a Weathers/Cabrera combo.

is weathers/cabrera a 2 headed monster for marlins fans to watch? because it's a truly awful combination. weathers should not be anywhere near a playoff roster. just dont shut eury down unless he is tired or showing signs of an injury. stop playing for 2029 when you are a half game out in 2023. Pitchers get hurt, 5 innings here and there isnt going to make or break a potential future tommy john for him.

[Lee Stone]

I'm hoping that Banfield can be the opening day catcher next season. He strikes out a lot but homers enough to put him ahead of Fortes and Stallings. If he continues to improve his offense, he can be a factor.

[lou]

I'm hoping that Banfield can be the opening day catcher next season. He strikes out a lot but homers enough to put him ahead of Fortes and Stallings. If he continues to improve his offense, he can be a factor.

I mean that would be awesome, but I imagine he'll be the third catcher. Which is fine. I'd get him every day time in AAA as he wouldn't get 350 PA with Fortes around at the MLB level. He just needs to keep getting AB to see if they can get something to click more with a higher BB rate or whatever. He's still just 23. They don't need to rush him. They should get a better veteran and hope for a Fortes offensive rebound IMO.

[fish16]

I think they should bite the bullet with sandy and just have his TJ done as quickly as possible and have him built up for 2025. Worse case scenario is trying to play through it next year and missing most of 2024 and then all of 2025 as well. A UCL sprain means a partial tear, which means at some point it's going to go. If he can't come back this year and try to pitch through it, just get it done. It is an inevitability at this point now unfortunately.