2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

fitting that another hard hit ball directly at a fielder ends it

[Todd]

What a brutal start to the 2nd half.

[lou]

What a brutal start to the 2nd half.

Yep - some bad luck too. They should have had minimum 2-3 more hits on xBA but would that have even made a difference?

Sweep the Rockies?

[Namaste]

Of the 6 games we just lost, the opposing team out hit the Marlins once. Once.

[sports24/7]

I agree 100%, which is why I am thinking guys like McMahon, Edman/Carlson, L. Thomas w/ Harvey and Candelario (+extension), Peraza, Westburg, etc. make sense as if you're going to unload years of control, you need some years of MLB control back. I also think doing something like that is culturally important - making the playoffs is a big achievement and sets goals and gets experience for these guys. Gives the fans something.

Where then, Bruce needs to step in and plug holes. But they'd honestly be pretty set through 2025 with their current MLB control of reasonable guys assuming 2+ MLB pieces come back with some control.

This is just a real THUD coming out of the break but they can make it up before the deadline but will need to do so immediately.

Agreed. And IMO, the best move they can make would be for a young SS. If there’s a way to get Peraza without hurting yourself too much on the big club, currently, that might be a best case scenario.

I wonder if they’d circle back on Brendan Rodgers, who they reportedly went after in the off-season. The injuries are a concern, but he’s about to start his rehab assignment and could be back in the bigs soon.

[fish16]

rumor going around, probably nothing to it realistically given the source, that we are going hard for cody bellinger. Would be a great addition to the lineup, id use him at 1b and get rid of cooper from the starting lineup when jazz comes back. Add gomes to it and that's the best possible move to improve the lineup, but we desperately need relievers. Our current group of relievers is Puk who has been terrible and unreliable this month, Scott, Okert, Chargois, Brazoban, Cueto, Hoeing,and Garcia. That is a puke worthy bullpen. They not only need 2 additions at least, they need to be impact level, back end of the bullpen additions. We cannot continue to have important innings pitched by brazoban and chargois.

Both would be pure rentals so you're looking at probably eder and maybe a few other mid level pieces. Worth it.

[lou]

Agreed. And IMO, the best move they can make would be for a young SS. If there’s a way to get Peraza without hurting yourself too much on the big club, currently, that might be a best case scenario.

I wonder if they’d circle back on Brendan Rodgers, who they reportedly went after in the off-season. The injuries are a concern, but he’s about to start his rehab assignment and could be back in the bigs soon.

I can get behind a healthy Rodgers. That's a good upside bet. But that seems like more of an offseason thing but maybe he is fully healthy with limited rust. Also are we sure he can play SS, as doing the math of their longer term personnel and what's a reasonable start expectation, I come to this:

140 - Arraez
132 - Jazz, DLC
120 - Segura
112 - Sanchez, Berti, Edwards, Myers (plus Edwards and Myers can eat into Segura or Berti, and maybe even DLC, if they take off)
81 - Fortes, Stallings

That leaves effectively 132 starts in SS and CF, and 74 for a 5th outfielder. I'm imagining a world where Jazz plays in the field 2+ times a week and DHs 70+ times to keep him upright BTW. Something like this, acknowledging there is A LOT of positional flexibility here to play the best lineups, i.e. if Jazz proves to be healthy, obviously he goes into the field and DLC moves to DH, etc.

2024 Starts Idea
C Fortes 81 / Stallings 81
1B Arraez 140 / Myers 22 (could swap the 22 DH starts here)
2B Edwards 82 / Berti 80
SS New SS 132 / Berti 30 (+ Amaya and Nasim)
3B Segura 120 / Myers 40 / Berti 2
LF Jazz 62 / DLC 50 / Myers 50
CF New CF 132 / Edwards 30
RF Sanchez 112 / New OF 50 (+ this could be Garcia, and Burdick in AAA)
DH DLC 70 / Jazz 70 / New OF 22 (or Myers)


Rodgers works for me for sure if he can do that at SS. Grichuk also makes sense and maybe he would get a 1 year extension to absorb a slew of that OF time as he can hit and historically plays solid defense.

But this keeps me going back to the Cardinals and would they move Edman, Carlson, Flaherty, and Hicks/Gallegos as that solves all the 2023 problems as obviously I am thinking more longterm above, so that's a win-win for short and longterm. I'd probably send two of Rogers, Eder, and Meyer over as the main pieces, or maybe swapping that to Garrett and Fulton (i.e, the most valuable and least valuable of these mentioned SP) for that Cardinals foursome (plus other notable secondary prospects from the Marlins, but ones we can live without). I am firmly content running out Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, and Garrett/Rogers next year, with at least one of Eder/Meyer in the wings with Monteverde, and this is also what is available in free agency for an innings eater. Someone like Mahle seems like a perfect SP rehabilitation project as he should be ready by June and has the type of arm the Marlins tweak to a killer, but there are some less risky options there even on two year deals.

[I]Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger (mutual option), Alex Cobb (club option), Johnny Cueto (club option), Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Zack Greinke, Andrew Heaney (opt-out), Kyle Hendricks (club option), Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber (club option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea (opt-out), Germ

[lou]

Bellinger is pretty skeptical - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

He isn't hitting the ball hard at all with an expected .253/.299/.401 slash, which is pretty far off from his current .894 OPS. He has a good whiff rate, is still fast, and is playing really good defense so there is a built in floor here of probably an average 2.5 WAR guy with upside. It looks to me he is an improved 2022 Bellinger (1.8 WAR) and this isn't an indication he is back to 2018/2019 levels (5.5+ WAR pace).

That's fine, but I feel you'd need to resign him (see above, they have PLENTY of OF plate appearances to give longterm). What's an extension look like? Nimmo got $162m guaranteed. I consider it a 6 year deal (even though it is 8) because they moved some years/numbers for luxury tax purposes, so I think he was valued closer to $22-25m a year by the Mets. Nimmo is better than Bellinger. Bellinger will be 28, so would he take a 3/$60m type deal, maybe with an opt-out after year 2 if he hits certain allstar/production thresholds. I'm not sure going longer would be smart as there are some huge red flags here. But he has certainly earned a 2-3 year guarantee versus a 1 at this point. I imagine Boras who I believe represents him will want to take him to market though so maybe an in season extensions is a foolish thought absent the Marlins fully believing and getting to $100+ m over 5. Hard for me to see that financial commitment with that statcast, but maybe the defense and K rate and dinking unexpected hits with it keep him over a 3+ WAR average for years.

Also feel the Cubs are pretty smart and they'd just resign him if they believed. If he's cheap sure and will be very helpful, but not sure this is anything more than name brand rental.

[fish16]

or the cubs realize he is going to opt out of his mutual option at the end of the year and they have a top 10 prospect in baseball right behind him. The peripherals are definitely not as good as the numbers suggest though which is interesting. looks like he sacrificed some power for better contact and is getting luckier than he has in years. IF you can get Yan gomes in it as well id take the risk. OR blow them out of the water for Bellinger, Gomes, and Stroman or Hendricks.

[fish16]

idk if he would even be dangled but kyle hendricks seems like a really good fit for the SP we need. Gives us quality innings, and a lot of innings. I hope they dont just go the route of someone who is a 5th starter type who is mediocre but eats innings. they need a legitimate starter who can also eat innings. 14 million this year with a 16 million club option for next year.

[lou]

Bellinger, Stroman, Gomes, and M. Fulmer (very solid since late April, just a bumpy start) certainly fits the "rental" bill pretty significantly if the Marlins are looking for a stick, backup C upgrade, quality SP who will eat massive innings, and a solid RHP reliever (do we still believe in Barnes? Is he coming back?).

Given the significant $$$ attached to Bellinger and Stroman (will cost $20m THIS season if traded now), I honestly think a reasonable return for a quad like that is Fulton/Monteverde and and call it three outside top 20-25 prospect arms. It's a money dump for a maybe backend SP and relievers IMO. That buys the Cubs a year of Nola or Giolito in FA next year, and the prospects would just fill out the bullpen. Which is a good move for them assuming they are not contending as they can't expect much more than that for these guys.

I'd be interested in a contending move if that is the price and Bruce will absorb the money for the run. Even better if Bellinger is extended as I do think a 3/$60 kind of deal is fair, and fuck it give him an opt out after year 1 if he is awesome (all star, marlins make playoffs, he has a 3+ WAR season, whatever), and year 2 just because, and let him get back to FA if he returns to his early form. I'd commit $90m bucks to 3.5 years of Bellinger, and half seasons of Stroman, Gomes, and Fulmer, if all it costs is Fulton/Monteverde and relievers who are 12+ outside the Marlins depth chart.

And if we think that is low for a trade idea, and yes I know BTV sucks, I just double checked with them for an unbiased second opinion and they generally agree Fulton/Monteverde and a collection of RP prospects gets that done.

That's a lot of money for Bruce though as this move doesn't assure multiple playoff games to recoup bucks. So I feel this one is difficult absent the Cubs throwing in money, and now we're moving to Meyer, Eder, Berry, Cappe, and Watson for rentals and that becomes harder IMO.

[lou]

Eury and Sandy top 18 trade value in baseball - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-trade-value-nos-11-20/. That sounds about right to me.

Luzardo looks like a snub on this list and I think Fangraphs is very wrong not thinking his three non-guaranteed arbitration years are a top 35-50 asset in baseball at minimum. But whatever. He's awesome.

[fish16]

Bellinger, Stroman, Gomes, and M. Fulmer (very solid since late April, just a bumpy start) certainly fits the "rental" bill pretty significantly if the Marlins are looking for a stick, backup C upgrade, quality SP who will eat massive innings, and a solid RHP reliever (do we still believe in Barnes? Is he coming back?).

Given the significant $$$ attached to Bellinger and Stroman (will cost $20m THIS season if traded now), I honestly think a reasonable return for a quad like that is Fulton/Monteverde and and call it three outside top 20-25 prospect arms. It's a money dump for a maybe backend SP and relievers IMO. That buys the Cubs a year of Nola or Giolito in FA next year, and the prospects would just fill out the bullpen. Which is a good move for them assuming they are not contending as they can't expect much more than that for these guys.

I'd be interested in a contending move if that is the price and Bruce will absorb the money for the run. Even better if Bellinger is extended as I do think a 3/$60 kind of deal is fair, and fuck it give him an opt out after year 1 if he is awesome (all star, marlins make playoffs, he has a 3+ WAR season, whatever), and year 2 just because, and let him get back to FA if he returns to his early form. I'd commit $90m bucks to 3.5 years of Bellinger, and half seasons of Stroman, Gomes, and Fulmer, if all it costs is Fulton/Monteverde and relievers who are 12+ outside the Marlins depth chart.

And if we think that is low for a trade idea, and yes I know BTV sucks, I just double checked with them for an unbiased second opinion and they generally agree Fulton/Monteverde and a collection of RP prospects gets that done.

That's a lot of money for Bruce though as this move doesn't assure multiple playoff games to recoup bucks. So I feel this one is difficult absent the Cubs throwing in money, and now we're moving to Meyer, Eder, Berry, Cappe, and Watson for rentals and that becomes harder IMO.

Barnes was ruled out for the year so he isnt coming back. I believe it was a hip surgery or something like that.

[Namaste]

rumor going around, probably nothing to it realistically given the source, that we are going hard for cody bellinger.

From everything I understand, some rando Twitter account not affiliated in any way with the Marlins posted this.

I don’t think it’s any more likely that we get Bellinger than we get Ohtani.

[sports24/7]

I can get behind a healthy Rodgers. That's a good upside bet. But that seems like more of an offseason thing but maybe he is fully healthy with limited rust. Also are we sure he can play SS, as doing the math of their longer term personnel and what's a reasonable start expectation, I come to this:

140 - Arraez
132 - Jazz, DLC
120 - Segura
112 - Sanchez, Berti, Edwards, Myers (plus Edwards and Myers can eat into Segura or Berti, and maybe even DLC, if they take off)
81 - Fortes, Stallings

That leaves effectively 132 starts in SS and CF, and 74 for a 5th outfielder. I'm imagining a world where Jazz plays in the field 2+ times a week and DHs 70+ times to keep him upright BTW. Something like this, acknowledging there is A LOT of positional flexibility here to play the best lineups, i.e. if Jazz proves to be healthy, obviously he goes into the field and DLC moves to DH, etc.

2024 Starts Idea
C Fortes 81 / Stallings 81
1B Arraez 140 / Myers 22 (could swap the 22 DH starts here)
2B Edwards 82 / Berti 80
SS New SS 132 / Berti 30 (+ Amaya and Nasim)
3B Segura 120 / Myers 40 / Berti 2
LF Jazz 62 / DLC 50 / Myers 50
CF New CF 132 / Edwards 30
RF Sanchez 112 / New OF 50 (+ this could be Garcia, and Burdick in AAA)
DH DLC 70 / Jazz 70 / New OF 22 (or Myers)


Rodgers works for me for sure if he can do that at SS. Grichuk also makes sense and maybe he would get a 1 year extension to absorb a slew of that OF time as he can hit and historically plays solid defense.

But this keeps me going back to the Cardinals and would they move Edman, Carlson, Flaherty, and Hicks/Gallegos as that solves all the 2023 problems as obviously I am thinking more longterm above, so that's a win-win for short and longterm. I'd probably send two of Rogers, Eder, and Meyer over as the main pieces, or maybe swapping that to Garrett and Fulton (i.e, the most valuable and least valuable of these mentioned SP) for that Cardinals foursome (plus other notable secondary prospects from the Marlins, but ones we can live without). I am firmly content running out Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, and Garrett/Rogers next year, with at least one of Eder/Meyer in the wings with Monteverde, and this is also what is available in free agency for an innings eater. Someone like Mahle seems like a perfect SP rehabilitation project as he should be ready by June and has the type of arm the Marlins tweak to a killer, but there are some less risky options there even on two year deals.

[I]Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger (mutual option), Alex Cobb (club option), Johnny Cueto (club option), Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Zack Greinke, Andrew Heaney (opt-out), Kyle Hendricks (club option), Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber (club option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea (opt-out), Germ

I suppose SS isn't a sure thing for Rodgers, but it feels like he'd be at least serviceable there. He came up as a SS who had to move to 2B to get to the bigs faster, but he won a gold glove at 2B, and seemingly has enough of an arm for SS.