2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

[QUOTE=Lee Stone;n585935]

Eder isn’t close to being ready to take a spot in a major league rotation for a team needing innings and immediate production in a stretch run. You do this with every single prospect and never take any stock into how consistently wrong you are on the prospects you fall in love with [/QUOte

Yeah, Myers and Edwards will never play in the majors. Neither will Monteverde - at least not for another week or two. And, as I recall, I was touting Jazz Chisholm for the Marlins six months before he even joined Miami.

Edman and DeJong? They are a big part of why the Cardinals suck. Both have barely a .300 OBP.

ive never said myers would never play in the majors and ive been touting edwards for weeks. ive also never said monteverde will never pitch in the majors, i said he wont this year, which is accurate. You've also touted nasim nunez as our starting SS by this point in the year in spring and he's currently hitting .219 with a .619 OPS in AA. You've also touted many other players based on minor league stats without putting those stats in context, which is why you consistently get your minor league projections wrong. Also see every AAAA catcher that lands in the marlins system. Now its Austin Allen who cant hit major league pitching, in the past it's been Tyler Heineman, who now has a .567 OPS across 235 major league at bats.

Im not saying eder stinks. Im saying eder is not close to the guy they need in the rotation right now coming off of TJ surgery making his major league debut while he has predictably had control issues in his first few starts back. He wont be up til next year. They need an established major league quality starter to add to this group for the remainder of the year.

[fish16]

i think they should make a play for Carlson, Montgomery, and Gallegos in a deal, and then go get yan gomes for cheap. Carlson would be OF depth, and he would pair very well with Sanchez. Carlson has an .818 OPS against lefties this year albeit in a small sample, but it was .845 last year, and .923 the year before.

Plus he is a former top 10 prospect or so in all of baseball so it's a bet on talent and having him figure it out here. Then next year maybe you can slot him in at CF, Edwards at 2b, arraez to 1b, and Jazz full time DH or mix and match with edwards and carlson to try to keep him healthy.

[lou]

Carlson works too.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Arraez
Edman, Wendle (still doing Edman or Donovan for me, either can slot in. I guess Dejong also works)
Berti, Segura
DLC
Carlson, Jazz
Sanchez, Soler

Jazz gets two CF and two DH a week, Edman/Berti pops out to the OF often, and we go on a magic carpet ride of 2 games a week with DLC and Soler at the corner OF positions. Myers can hold down the fort until Jazz is back and Edwards will be next man up if anyone gets hurt.

They'll have to like Nootbar in CF longterm to do this (but is playing there and stats say he is solid), and Mesa Jr. would be a good third player to send back to them in whatever permutation of a deal happens to get them a CF defender down the road.

A lot to like with the Cardinals. Of course every team in baseball can say this as the Cardinals have good players.

[lou]

Also want to say Bleday does in fact suck - expected slash .205/.305/.320 (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb)

What was Oakland thinking?


I mention as Puk wanted to start this spring. What do we think about a slow stretch out of 2 innings in July, 2-3 innings in August, and 3 innings in September to help bridge the innings gap? It's not like Scott, Okert, and Nardi when back can't handle themselves as the lefty pen.

Effectively come August 1st, could the rotation be Sandy, Luzardo (+ Rogers in September), Garrett, Cabrera, and a Eury/Puk combo throwing 5+. It would be approximately 11-12 starts, so I am thinking this is 2+ innings of Eury and 3 innings of Puk. It works for workload purposes and becomes even easier in September. Rogers is mentioned there to skip Luzardo a few times to keep his innings down as they should deflect a few starts.

Pen then is

Floro, Chargois, ______, Brazoban/Hoeing/Cueto
Scott, Okert, Nardi


The blank line is the RHP reliever that is often mentioned and could be a very high volume/usage guy, and add Rogers and one of the right handers for September call ups.

Just saying here. They said they want a SP which makes sense, but it would be really great to not have to trade for one unless Bruce really lets them go for it and trade everything with an indication they will sign MLB level deficiencies next year. Edman, Carlson, and Gallegos / Candelario, Thomas, Harvey become real interesting one stop shopping with this line of though. So Puk?

[fish16]

I would definitely stay towards the CF, SS, C, SP, and RP market. 3b obviously has been bad but i would count on segura to continue to pick it up as the season winds down and end the year with overall decent numbers. He isnt this bad, and i think he could be looked at as an addition in and of itself with how bad plus unlucky he has been. Just look at his career numbers, he isnt a star but he has been remarkably consistently productive his entire career. Id bet on the track record and him regressing to the mean positively and add to other areas and hope he returns to form. The peripherals suggest he will and he has been pretty good in the few weeks he has been back. Plus you have myers as another option there and he looks to be a solid player at least with the potential that we got lucky and he is a true impact guy moving forward.

Also, i know mish says we will add money at the deadline, just not long term money, but i almost guarantee you what we will do is add money while also subtracting Stallings, Wendle, and Floro's money. All can be non-tendered at the end of the year or are free agents, so i doubt teams with real owners would have much issue taking those guys on if they get prospects in the deal. The 3 of them make a combined 13 or so million. Cooper is another 6 million, but i doubt they cut bait unless the unthinkable happens and they get a goldschmidt level player in a deal. Montgomery for reference is at 10 million. So they could theoretically add him in a deal and subtract those guys in other deals and not take on much more additional salary for the rest of the year

[fish16]

Also want to say Bleday does in fact suck - expected slash .205/.305/.320 (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb)

What was Oakland thinking?


I mention as Puk wanted to start this spring. What do we think about a slow stretch out of 2 innings in July, 2-3 innings in August, and 3 innings in September to help bridge the innings gap? It's not like Scott, Okert, and Nardi when back can't handle themselves as the lefty pen.

Effectively come August 1st, could the rotation be Sandy, Luzardo (+ Rogers in September), Garrett, Cabrera, and a Eury/Puk combo throwing 5+. It would be approximately 11-12 starts, so I am thinking this is 2+ innings of Eury and 3 innings of Puk. It works for workload purposes and becomes even easier in September. Rogers is mentioned there to skip Luzardo a few times to keep his innings down as they should deflect a few starts.

Pen then is

Floro, Chargois, ______, Brazoban/Hoeing/Cueto
Scott, Okert, Nardi


The blank line is the RHP reliever that is often mentioned and could be a very high volume/usage guy, and add Rogers and one of the right handers for September call ups.

Just saying here. They said they want a SP which makes sense, but it would be really great to not have to trade for one unless Bruce really lets them go for it and trade everything with an indication they will sign MLB level deficiencies next year. Edman, Carlson, and Gallegos / Candelario, Thomas, Harvey become real interesting one stop shopping with this line of though. So Puk?

i wouldnt do that just because of our other back end bullpen options. If we add a legitimate closer id be fine with it, but not if it means moving a current arm into the closers role. There is also the history of arm issues including an IL stint not too long ago, so probably best just to be cautious with him and take what you can get from him.

[fish16]

To me the perfect deadline is Yan Gomes for very cheap, then Carlson and Montgomery, adding a righty RP free agent to be, and then maybe taking a flier on tim anderson. That is absent a true impact guy like Robert actually being available. I know that tim anderson is having a horrific year, but it's a bet on proven talent bouncing back and getting a highly impactful player for the rest of the year and next year for very little. Maybe get them to eat some money just to move on. Realistically, i dont see a better SS option out there for this year and next year and maybe you get lucky. He has a very modest contract so it's not like you're taking on 25 million years into the future.

Could role out:

C- Gomes/Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Anderson
3b- Segura
LF- DLC
CF- Carlson/Myers
RF- Sanchez
DH- Soler
Bench- Fortes, Berti, Carlson/Myers, Gurriel
SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Montgomery, Cabrera
RP- Puk, __________, Nardi, Okert, Scott, Chargois, and then fillers depending on who is eventually healthy (Rogers and Max Meyer would be good bullpen arms if they could be ready for the stretch run.

Then Jazz comes back, Carlson settles into the 4th OF platoon role with the corner OF's, Myers moves into the backup 1b/3b role if he is for real.

[lou]

Since May 22nd which is a random selected date when Stallings got some hits, he has a .5 WAR as compared to Fortes .3 as compared to Gomes 0.0. SSS yes, but I don't think they care as much as we do about upgrading with these de minimus guys. Just an observation. Stallings has the lowest PA of those 3 also (yes with a big BABIP), but still. Stallings hasn't been that bad the last 6-7 weeks.

If Seattle drops out, they should be looking at Tom Murphy. I think that is a much more interesting upgrade idea if we're expanding the trade pool. I'm hoping Seattle loses 5 in a row here. And if they did that, I wouldn't be surprised if Fortes is optioned to catch his breath versus a Stallings DFA. Fortes has a .431 OPS vs RHP this year which is worse than Stallings. Murphy has an .856 OPS and an expected slash of .256/.308/.490 so he is relatively backing it up. I think that would be a fun offensive upgrade and yell at Stallings remember how to play defense like 2021. BTW, if Fortes is in the minors for August he's knocked off a super 2 for 2025. That does save a million bucks if we project him as a part time catcher for a few years which I think we do.

[sports24/7]

They are a perfect partner for the Marlins. BTW Cardinals fans are souring on WALKER because his defense is terrible, worse than DLC terrible, and having a moderately bumpy start. They want to trade Walker and their rental guys for EURY to really add oomph to their pitching situation. Just for some perspective on what their fan thinks of the Marlins. It's also not an insulting idea on their end as Walker may be a star hitter and it gets the Marlins immediate upgrades compared to the low contributions Eury will make here on out, but it's a no with what Eury showed for me absent something else really interesting coming back.

You could do some one stop shopping with them though - Edman, DeJong, Flaherty (think they would want a right hander over Montgomery). Edman can play literally everywhere and DeJong is showing plus plus defense at SS with an .870 OPS vs LHP. Edman is controlled 24 and 25 and DeJong has a club option for $12.5 if they think he holds up. Edman is perfect for a few years. Cardinals top prospect is a SS so that turnover is coming.

Something like Eder, Cappe/Watson, Fulton/Monteverde/Miller, Fitterer, and some other outside top 25 bullpen project arm gets that done quick IMO. I think they'd be pretty happy turning those guys into that, and having Montgomery, Goldschmidt, and others to get more pitching.


Fortes, Stallings
Arraez, Cooper
Edman
DeJong, Wendle
Berti, Segura
DLC
Jazz
Sanchez, Soler
(Myers and Edwards AAA)

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Flaherty
Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers
Floro, Chargois
Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi
(Hoeing and Brazoban AAA)


That team is awesome, with a little room for improvement with a catcher upgrade and if Rogers is in fact out until September, they could add a RHP reliever at the deadline and Rogers could just come up for expanded rosters and not lose the roster spot. Adding Rogers, Brazoban, and Myers back September 1st, etc.

I'd be pumped for once.

That trade would very much help them contend this year, and I really like the idea of buying low on Flaherty, but if you’re giving up that kind of prospect haul, ideally I’d want more of a longterm bat, which on the Cardinals is one of their young (to young-ish) outfielders.

[rmc523]

I may ask a question I don't want to know the answer to here.......what happened with Garcia, and let's hope they're not counting on him being a "big addition"

[dgriot]

I may ask a question I don't want to know the answer to here.......what happened with Garcia, and let's hope they're not counting on him being a "big addition"

May 10 - To the IL with back tightness
May 29 - Started some rehab games in AAA
June 3 - After 4 games, unspecified setback, has been shutdown since

There's been no real update or timetable or anything since then. Just a "yep, still shutdown" note in late June. The radio silence gives it more of a "is this dude gonna medically retire?" vibe than returning anytime this season.

[lou]

That trade would very much help them contend this year, and I really like the idea of buying low on Flaherty, but if you’re giving up that kind of prospect haul, ideally I’d want more of a longterm bat, which on the Cardinals is one of their young (to young-ish) outfielders.

Well I think Edman is a longterm bat (and does play a very competent CF), I'd want to extend him further but he has control years 24/25. But who are we talking about here?


Walker --- > Gonna cost Eury, how crazy are we going to go here? I do think though the Cardinals would entertain this idea though.

Nootbar ---> 4.8 WAR first 750 PA and is a lefty (Jazz, Sanchez). Will have 4 years of control. This is going to cost "a lot." I think he is a major Cards building block and virtually untouchable. For comparison sake, Jazz has a 5.4 WAR in 993 PA.

Carlson ---> Makes a lot of sense. Hits lefties, plays CF well, stock is a little down, but still 24 with a small BABIP dip. His expected slash is .247/.348/.407 (he's hitting a .715 OPS right now so underachieving a little).

Donovan (as he does play some OF too) --- > Makes a lot of sense, but he has 5 control years. I feel he is part of club Contreras, Gorman, Donovan, Winn, Arendao, Walker, and Nootbar as 7 longterm starting position players for them.

Burleson ---> He's having a rough transition to the bigs and is a lefty (Jazz, Sanchez). Not helping right now. Cards would be smart to hold. Marlins need better unless a secondary longterm move for next year.

O'Neil ---- > He sucks. If he is literally free to pray for something closer to 2021, sure. You'd almost rather have Burdick just hit against lefties though. The guy has fallen apart. I'm least interested in him here.

Yepez --- > He's interesting if cheap, but is he an upgrade today over Yuli? We should be replacing Yuli. Just let Burdick hit the lefties if this is the idea.



So if we want to tweak to Edman and Carlson, sure. I think that's a sneaky major major position player upgrade for the Marlins with a bunch of control. Get Flaherty/Montgomery and Hicks (rental) and that's a 4 player package I'd be happy to blow them away for. Those guys have a 3.7 WAR this year and Edman and Carlson are underachieving IMO.

[lou]

May 10 - To the IL with back tightness
May 29 - Started some rehab games in AAA
June 3 - After 4 games, unspecified setback, has been shutdown since

There's been no real update or timetable or anything since then. Just a "yep, still shutdown" note in late June. The radio silence gives it more of a "is this dude gonna medically retire?" vibe than returning anytime this season.

If Garcia medically retires and the Marlins have an insurance policy to offset his salary, that would be quite the change of events.

I'm expecting a DFA because they will have traded for something and/or Edwards or Dane is actually good

[sports24/7]

Well I think Edman is a longterm bat (and does play a very competent CF), I'd want to extend him further but he has control years 24/25. But who are we talking about here?


Walker --- > Gonna cost Eury, how crazy are we going to go here? I do think though the Cardinals would entertain this idea though.

Nootbar ---> 4.8 WAR first 750 PA and is a lefty (Jazz, Sanchez). Will have 4 years of control. This is going to cost "a lot." I think he is a major Cards building block and virtually untouchable. For comparison sake, Jazz has a 5.4 WAR in 993 PA.

Carlson ---> Makes a lot of sense. Hits lefties, plays CF well, stock is a little down, but still 24 with a small BABIP dip. His expected slash is .247/.348/.407 (he's hitting a .715 OPS right now so underachieving a little).

Donovan (as he does play some OF too) --- > Makes a lot of sense, but he has 5 control years. I feel he is part of club Contreras, Gorman, Donovan, Winn, Arendao, Walker, and Nootbar as 7 longterm starting position players for them.

Burleson ---> He's having a rough transition to the bigs and is a lefty (Jazz, Sanchez). Not helping right now. Cards would be smart to hold. Marlins need better unless a secondary longterm move for next year.

O'Neil ---- > He sucks. If he is literally free to pray for something closer to 2021, sure. You'd almost rather have Burdick just hit against lefties though. The guy has fallen apart. I'm least interested in him here.

Yepez --- > He's interesting if cheap, but is he an upgrade today over Yuli? We should be replacing Yuli. Just let Burdick hit the lefties if this is the idea.



So if we want to tweak to Edman and Carlson, sure. I think that's a sneaky major major position player upgrade for the Marlins with a bunch of control. Get Flaherty/Montgomery and Hicks (rental) and that's a 4 player package I'd be happy to blow them away for. Those guys have a 3.7 WAR this year and Edman and Carlson are underachieving IMO.

I’d ask on Walker, but wouldn’t give up Eury. Probably a long shot. I’d see if you could make something work with Nootbar. Normally, someone like that would be untouchable, but with their glut of OFers, maybe you could make something work. Carlson feels like a good fit, though, if you can’t find a deal on the other two. He shouldn’t break the bank, but the upside and age is right.

[lou]

I’d ask on Walker, but wouldn’t give up Eury. Probably a long shot. I’d see if you could make something work with Nootbar. Normally, someone like that would be untouchable, but with their glut of OFers, maybe you could make something work. Carlson feels like a good fit, though, if you can’t find a deal on the other two. He shouldn’t break the bank, but the upside and age is right.

I can't imagine a scenario for Walker or Nootbar outside Eury or Luzardo. And if you trade Luzardo, you now need two SP. And you'd still want Edman/Donovan, or more probably DeJong as those other guys will be expensive and an infielder is definitely needed. Cards guys are probably $80m+ on surplus value. I'd like to note they were reportedly trying to trade for Nootbar in the spring so they like him and I get it.

Luzardo is probably worth $50-60m with what he is showing (3+ WAR guy) and some big arbitration numbers coming to impact his overall value. They'd need to bridge that gap.

I imagine it would be something like....

Nootbar, Montgomery, Flaherty, DeJong

Luzardo, Cappe, Fulton, Mesa Jr. Right Handed pen projection (Reynolds/Soriano/Maldonado/Fitterer/Pushard/maybe Sixto/etc.) and LHP pen projection (Simpson/etc.)


Marlins would look pretty awesome IMO. This is adding like $10m in payroll. They have the innings here for sure.

Fortes, Stallings (possible upgrade)
Cooper
Arraez (Edwards for September)
DeJong, Wendle
Berti, Segura (Myers for September)
Jazz, DLC (Myers replaces Jazz while hurt)
Nootbar
Sanchez, Soler

Sandy, Flaherty, Cabrera, Eury
Montgomery, Garrett, Rogers
Floro, Chargois
Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi
(Hoeing, Brazoban, Soriano, I guess Cueto are the injury/AAA replacements, and could get another reliever here)


Then next year they'd have $15-25m (depending on Bruce) to add on top of this, which is basically a catcher and a 5th SP to eat innings while Meyer/Eder/Monteverde more slowly worked in. This is the predominant 26 man next year idea not opening day basically and I wouldn't expect Meyer/Eder/Monteverde up until the summer for reasons I will not say but rhymes with honey.

Fortes, ________
Arraez
Edwards, Berti
DeJong, Amaya
Myers(Can he do 3B? Is he good?), Segura
Jazz, DLC
Nootbar
Sanchez

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Meyer
Garrett, Rogers, Eder, Monteverde
Chargois
Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi
(Bender, Hoeing, Brazoban, Soriano, Maldonado, etc. injury/AAA replacements)

And in 2025, you would hope Nasim/Watson/Morisette/Groshans/Berry/variety of RP can internally replace Berti, DeJong, Segura, Scott, and Chargois as everyone else is still controlled. Or maybe Bruce would finally spend money.

Basically saying here, they can live without Luzardo for a contending push and getting a legitimate longterm player like Nootbar with an infield role player who helps the defense. If anyone doesn't know much about Nootbar, he is very very good - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. It would be a real lefty heavy OF but I'm fine with throwing Edwards/Berti and Dane out there against some lefties. I think anyways.