2023 Game Thread

[Namaste]

smeltzer has a 5.95 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP and 14 hr's allowed in 65 innings in AAA. he had a 7.56 ERA last year in 50 AAA innings..

Then why was Smeltzer brought up to face the Phillies?!?!?!??!

Thank you!

[lou]

For SS, id go the peraza route or, even though ive given you shit about Rosario, if you can get him on a cheap deal after a down year, that's not a bad alternative. I dont love the player, but he is a decent enough hitter, should be cheap for a 1-2 year deal, and there is just no other options. Id rather do that than trade for a prospect who wont be ready next year. You get immediate, albeit mediocre, production, and you dont give up an asset to do it. Then just re-evaluate next year.

Id rather trade for a C. Toronto seems to have 20 of them and a need for pitching, figure out a deal, whether it's fulton, Rogers, Cabrera (i wouldnt do that), or some of the lower level guys. Danny jansen is a free agent to be after next year, so he would be a cheaper option, or you can go all in for Kirk, who has more control but hasnt had a great year hitting like he did last year. Either one works for me, they need some sort of impact addition there.

2b- Edwards
1b- Arraez
DH- Bell
CF- Jazz
3b- Burger
RF- Sanchez
LF- DLC
C- Kirk/Jansen
SS- Rosario

The only assets you're giving up would be pitching for the C they acquire. Then spend some money on legit bullpen arms or make some of the minor trades they seem to make every offseason for some legit complementary back end bullpen arms.

I wouldnt mind that at all, but i wouldnt give a ton to Rosario. It's just a value play for him coming off a down year. That's unfortunately about the best they can do.

Can't see the Yankees moving him but 100% if he is available. With you entirely on Peraza or any Toronto C if possible. I can also get down for Rosario, trading the "Rogers" package for Jansen/Kirk if one is somehow available, and signing a more rental OF (Grichuk?) to replace the threesome. That may be cheaper than a fancy OF to allow to sign for another arm for that blank line I had above. Kirk has also picked it up BTW. He's back to hitting. I think it's Jansen with the less control if they do something. Kirk is their future whether they like it or not.

That would do this. This team is close to $100m

C JANSEN TRADE FOR ROGERS*, Fortes
1B Arraez, Bell(DH)
2B Edwards, Berti
SS ROSARIO FA 1 YEAR
3B Burger
LF GRICHUK FA 1 YEAR, DLC
CF Jazz
RF Sanchez, Garcia

----> w/ Banfield, Johnston, Nunez, Amaya, Groshans, Mesa Jr., Myers, and Burdick in AAA and on 40 man roster

SP-R Sandy, Eury, Cabrera
SP-L Luzardo, Garrett
RP-R Lopez, NEW RHP FOR OKERT, CHARGOIS AND PROSPECTS, Bender, Brazoban
RP-L Scott, Puk, Nardi
13th Arm - _______ < --- They have budget for a FA here and go be a #4 SP or a real decent bullpen arm to kick Bender or Brazoban to AAA

----> w/ Meyer, Weathers, Hoeing, Soriano, and Maldonado on 40 man roster, and Fulton and Monteverde not on 40 man roster + 1 40 man spot left

*(Marlins get back something in minors too - maybe Pop and a mid/low prospect comes back. Resign Jansen to a 3 year extension)



Also for a quick SS trade primer, this is what I immediately think about if SS is a trade route:

Yankees - Peraza
Orioles - Westburg** or Ortiz
Rockies - B. Rodgers <--- I forget whose idea this was but if he can play SS for 1-2 years, good enough
Cardinals - Edman <--- He still can be available
Twins - R. Lewis < -- Injuries galore but Brooks Lee (drafted AFTER Berry) is better and in AAA already. This might be a real exciting idea to go back to the Twins
Guardians - Rocchio <-- They might deal if Arias looks good ROS, but unlikely

(**yes I know Nick I have said Westburg is not a SS, but if he can do it 1-2 years that works and we all of course believe in the stick. They just gotta get something).

[fish16]

out of the prospect category, the orioles guys make way too much sense. They already have Henderson, Holliday is a stud on the way, there is only so much room for these guys. Plus they need pitching because they did the opposite of us and went hitter heavy on the rebuild and figured they could trade for pitching, which they can. Ive got no idea which guy can actually stick at SS, but whether it is ortiz or westburg, they just make too much sense. And it fits the cost controlled guy they have clearly been prioritizing in recent deals.

They had also inquired last offseason about either Santander or Hays, cant remember which, so if you add one of those guys and make it a big deal that makes sense too. Santander is a free agent after next year and Hays has 2 more years after this year.

[lou]

out of the prospect category, the orioles guys make way too much sense. They already have Henderson, Holliday is a stud on the way, there is only so much room for these guys. Plus they need pitching because they did the opposite of us and went hitter heavy on the rebuild and figured they could trade for pitching, which they can. Ive got no idea which guy can actually stick at SS, but whether it is ortiz or westburg, they just make too much sense. And it fits the cost controlled guy they have clearly been prioritizing in recent deals.

They had also inquired last offseason about either Santander or Hays, cant remember which, so if you add one of those guys and make it a big deal that makes sense too. Santander is a free agent after next year and Hays has 2 more years after this year.

100% on Orioles. And it was Santander 2 offseasons ago I believe. It's getting pretty crowded of slug defenders with Bell, DLC, and Burger though to add a 4th


Ortiz is a 100% defensive capable SS by all accounts. Westburg is a maybe, but you also have Amaya who can play against all lefties for sure (on paper) and defensively may be a "Rojas" so if it was Westburg, you could have Westburg be a 80 game SS and 50+ game 2B/3B/1B and it all works out.

Westburg I imagine will be more expensive, so I think Ortiz makes the most sense here. If I were them, I want the core lineup to by Aldy, Mayo, Westburg, Holliday, Gunnar, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins/Hays, Santandar, with Urias/Mateo on the bench. They have room for an Ortiz style player, but he is too good for their bench when they can sign a utility player and desperately need some pitching. And that's ignoring their second level of prospects (Norby, Beavers, etc.) don't work out too. There is a match here.

Fangraphs on Ortiz - Ortiz put up some silly offensive numbers as an amateur, including a .422/.474/.697 line as a junior at New Mexico State that was caricatured by the elevation of Las Cruces, which is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in college baseball. The Orioles selected Ortiz in the fourth round based largely on his defensive prowess, and he has lived up to those expectations while exceeding them on the offensive side. He has reached Triple-A Norfolk while accumulating a career .271/.349/.425 line in the minors, generating plus underlying contact data in 2022 (an 89% Z-contact%, which would be top 10 among major league shortstops) in the process. Ortiz is a plus defender anywhere on the infield dirt. He makes up for mediocre twitch and range with outstanding instincts, elegant body control, lightning-fast hands and actions, and a plus arm. The floor for Ortiz looks something like IKF, a slick-fielding utilityman with plus bat-to-ball ability, but not enough power to be a true everyday option, essentially a 45-grade player. Except Ortiz hit 19 homers and had 60 total extra-base hits in the upper-minors last year, and while he doesn’t project to produce that kind of power against big league stuff, it’s enough damage to project Ortiz’s offense above the median bar at shortstop. He projects as a 2-WAR player whose versatility could help optimize the way Baltimore’s other young infielders are deployed.

And since this write up, he has hit .358/.405/.584(!) in AAA with a 8%/17% BB/K rate. 269 PA, .8 HR, .409 BABIP. His R/L splits last 3 years are pretty neutral. He's a clear FV50/top 100 prospect everywhere. Rogers is a great float to them for him and the Marlins have excess relievers and lower level arms to figure this all out in a package. They might be able to get an OF out of this too for sure.

[sports24/7]

The notion that Bell is not any better than Cooper is incredibly myopic. Even if we ignore the fact that the metrics tell us he's consistently hitting the ball harder, and just call their performance a wash, Bell is under contract for another year (at a cost of about $8M to the Marlins, overall after the money sent out), and Cooper can't stay healthy. Is there anyone that feels confident that Cooper would be available for the rest of the year if the Marlins continue to stay in the WC race? Bell is also two years younger FWIW.

I don't love giving up Watson to get him, but if we're talking Bell vs Cooper in a vacuum, that's an easy decision to make.

[lou]

The notion that Bell is not any better than Cooper is incredibly myopic. Even if we ignore the fact that the metrics tell us he's consistently hitting the ball harder, and just call their performance a wash, Bell is under contract for another year (at a cost of about $8M to the Marlins, overall after the money sent out), and Cooper can't stay healthy. Is there anyone that feels confident that Cooper would be available for the rest of the year if the Marlins continue to stay in the WC race? Bell is also two years younger FWIW.

I don't love giving up Watson to get him, but if we're talking Bell vs Cooper in a vacuum, that's an easy decision to make.

I just want to add how crazy this in fact is. Their expected production is this based on their batted ball profile

Bell .275/.361/.460

Cooper .248/.288/.420

Yes I shit myself also seeing the OBP analytics here. This is an *enormous* upgrade on paper and myopic is too kind. This is all on statcast.


Cleveland salary dumped here with Civale and Bell, and got their longterm 1B and a flyer prospect. They are getting $12+m to spend next year with these moves, so they are valuing some FA dollars in doing their series of trades here. Actually, it's more than that as they moved Rosario and got money for Syndergaard. Cleveland is going to spend on something in FA, likely a SP (remember - SP pool is deep this offseason) and already have their offensive replacements.

Make no mistake about this, Bell is a pure salary dump which is a wild thing to think about as they are still contending. Cleveland is pretty deep so that's a tip of the cap to sell and still be in it.

[fish16]

There’s also the fact that bell will almost assuredly opt in for next year and Cooper was a free agent. Also Cooper is a walking injury and this year he was weirdly a walking weird illness thing

[fish16]

huge series on the road starts tonight. Need a big win very badly. Tomorrow im already chalking up to an auto loss given they are going to throw some AAA slop out there. Also getting somewhat lucky, the rangers just swept the tanking white sox but prior to that they struggled against the padres and dodgers, obviously 2 talented teams, but this is probably one of the worse stretches theyve had this year (which is more to say that they have been nuts all year. Their lineup is absolutely nuts. Turns out spending stupid money works sometimes if you arent the mets.

OPS of the guys in their lineup tonight- .807, 1.039, .811, .843, .830, .816, .674, .810, .748. Just completely nuts.

By contrast our lineup OPS is- .894, .821, .719, .757, .643, .802, .710, .720, ..552.

Honestly our lineup has gotten so much deeper since the deadline. The comparison would have been crazy with Wendle in there, plus Cooper and segura.

[fish16]

so tomorrow is the last start without Eury in the rotation. That spot will come up again next friday against the yankees at home, and mish reported that is when he is returning.

[fish16]

just looking at jazz's stats, he has been completely fucking unreliable health wise, but his numbers this year on a 150 game pace are 45 steals, 30 homers, 3.6 WAR, and a .767 OPS. If he can just become merely mediocre instead of completely lost against lefties he can really be something. Without that development though, he becomes a slightly less power a ton more speed joc pederson, which is great, but with a huge hole in his game.

Arraez is also already at 3.2 WAR, matching his entire total last year in 40 fewer games. Pablo is at 3 WAR, with by far his highest k/9 in his career, and his average fastball is now 95 even, which is .9 higher than his career high 2 years ago. Great for him because i was wrong in thinking his shoulder injuries would eventually creep back. I cant remember the last win win trade like that that we had since maybe the hanley deal way back when.

[fish16]

I just want to add how crazy this in fact is. Their expected production is this based on their batted ball profile

Bell .275/.361/.460

Cooper .248/.288/.420

Yes I shit myself also seeing the OBP analytics here. This is an *enormous* upgrade on paper and myopic is too kind. This is all on statcast.


Cleveland salary dumped here with Civale and Bell, and got their longterm 1B and a flyer prospect. They are getting $12+m to spend next year with these moves, so they are valuing some FA dollars in doing their series of trades here. Actually, it's more than that as they moved Rosario and got money for Syndergaard. Cleveland is going to spend on something in FA, likely a SP (remember - SP pool is deep this offseason) and already have their offensive replacements.

Make no mistake about this, Bell is a pure salary dump which is a wild thing to think about as they are still contending. Cleveland is pretty deep so that's a tip of the cap to sell and still be in it.

obviously the expected numbers help, but you dont even need the numbers to watch the difference between the 2 even 2 games in. Bell has such a better eye it pops off the screen just watching it, and his contact is just louder. Obviously no one compares to stanton in terms of "holy shit he crushes the ball when he makes contact", but he pops off the screen in terms of loud contact. Cooper was a nice find and he was a good guy for years, but it's good to change when the status quo clearly isnt working. Cooper's baseball savant page has nothing that is higher than the 57th percentile. He had straight-up bad k%, bb%, chase rate, obviously sprint speed, one of the lowest chase rates in baseball, 17% whiff percentage, and below 50% XBA, xslugging, average exit velocity, and xwoba. Even forgetting the track records of each, it is such a clear and obvious upgrade. Plus you get the extra year of Bell that he will almost assuredly opt into barring a complete explosion in the next 2 months, and in that case, fuck yes that's exactly what this lineup needs. It's such a clear and obvious upgrade it's stupid to even give it the time of day.

[fish16]

This team is so done.

[Namaste]

so tomorrow is the last start without Eury in the rotation. That spot will come up again next friday against the yankees at home, and mish reported that is when he is returning.

perfect because I have tickets to that game

[Namaste]

No such thing as an auto loss tomorrow

how many times over the last 5-7 years have the Marlins started a guy from AAA on the road and managed to win the game?

Answer: lots of times.

[fish16]

edwards went 3-4 with a triple, a steal, and a walk yet again last night. in 4 august games he is 10-15 with 5 walks and no k's. He has hit .348 or higher every month since may. And in april he was .319.