2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

Good, Bad and Ugly.

The good: Troy Johnston is looking awesome at first base, showing all around developing talent. In addition to great and consistent hitting numbers, he has stolen 16 bases in 17 tries. X Edwards has been consistently great every month of the season and has added CF to his repertoire. Dane Myers had a painful blip in his last six or seven Marlin starts, but looks very promising.

The bad: Josh Bell has hit no better than Garrett Cooper this season, and will make $17 million next season. Marlins will also pay him for the rest of this year. He has disappointed in both San Diego and Cleveland over the last twelve months and it seemed impossible that the Guardians could have unloaded that absurd contract. Worse yet, he is now in Johnston's way and cost the Marlins Watson, who is now starting to show some wallop at the plate. David Robertson cost prospects that would have ranked highly in the farm system in 2024 - a steal for the Mets.

The ugly. Jake Burger for Zac Gallen ... or make that Jake Eder. Coming off a long layoff, Eder was showing exactly what the Marlins should have hoped for: huge and rapid improvement. His last start for Pensacola was awesome. Jake Burger logged an awful .616 OPS away from his home field in Chicago this season, establishing a standard the Marlins can anticipate. He can't run or field for shit. This trade was criminal.

No team does business as poorly as the Marlins. As I understand it, the Marlins are paying Cooper's salary for the rest of season - making all those fans who wanted the Marlins to spend very happy. Ryan Weathers gave up 18 runs over his last 15 innings for San Diego. He's not a sleeper, or even a yawner. He's a groaner.

from the man who brought you nasim nunez would be starting by june and ben meyer is a top of the line prospect. Speaking of Ryan Weathers performance, his 18 runs in 15 innings in the major leagues are just 5 more than the 13 ER's your savior Patrick Monteverde just gave up last night in 3 innings of work


Eder might be good down the road. we have more than enough pitching in the organization. we need bats. Burger is a really good hitter despite bad plate discipline and he gives this lineup power that we did not have and is under control for 5 years. It was a fine trade. The gallen trade was fine too.

[Nick]

Nobody was over the moon more for the Jazz-Gallen trade at the time than Lee. I liked Lee better when he just had bad takes. Now he has bad takes and an agenda, he was so horribly wrong about the team this year that he feels like he just has to be negative on every single move this FO makes until he's eventually right about something.

[Lee Stone]

Nobody was over the moon more for the Jazz-Gallen trade at the time than Lee. I liked Lee better when he just had bad takes. Now he has bad takes and an agenda, he was so horribly wrong about the team this year that he feels like he just has to be negative on every single move this FO makes until he's eventually right about something.

For the record, I evaluated the trade for Jazz by saying that Gallen was the last pitcher on the Marlins I would have dealt for him. I wrote about Gallen constantly prior to his trade, celebrating his incredible AAA perormance. Also for the record, do you disagree with any of the trade evaluations I just wrote?

[Nick]

For the record, I evaluated the trade for Jazz in saying that Gallen was the last pitcher on the Marlins I would have dealt for him. Also for the record, do you disagree with any of the trade evaluations I just wrote?

Big time, you didn't even mention Segura, which was the biggest part of that Cleveland trade. Bell is a significant upgrade to Segura, Burger is a significant upgrade to Cooper, with a lot more years of control and younger, and we spent about $10 million more to do it and swapped Watson for Weathers, a guy who is 14 months younger than Eder was just as big of a prospect as Eder at one time, and we'll have a chance to do with him what we did to Luzardo. I don't love giving up Eder, but the offense needed to be improved and it was.

[lou]

Good, Bad and Ugly.

The good: Troy Johnston is looking awesome at first base, showing all around developing talent. In addition to great and consistent hitting numbers, he has stolen 16 bases in 17 tries. X Edwards has been consistently great every month of the season and has added CF to his repertoire. Dane Myers had a painful blip in his last six or seven Marlin starts, but looks very promising.

The bad: Josh Bell has hit no better than Garrett Cooper this season, and will make $17 million next season. Marlins will also pay him for the rest of this year. He has disappointed in both San Diego and Cleveland over the last twelve months and it seemed impossible that the Guardians could have unloaded that absurd contract. Worse yet, he is now in Johnston's way and cost the Marlins Watson, who is now starting to show some wallop at the plate. David Robertson cost prospects that would have ranked highly in the farm system in 2024 - a steal for the Mets.

The ugly. Jake Burger for Zac Gallen ... or make that Jake Eder. Coming off a long layoff, Eder was showing exactly what the Marlins should have hoped for: huge and rapid improvement. His last start for Pensacola was awesome. Jake Burger logged an awful .616 OPS away from his home field in Chicago this season, establishing a standard the Marlins can anticipate. He can't run or field for shit. This trade was criminal.

No team does business as poorly as the Marlins. As I understand it, the Marlins are paying Cooper's salary for the rest of season - making all those fans who wanted the Marlins to spend very happy. Ryan Weathers gave up 18 runs over his last 15 innings for San Diego. He's not a sleeper, or even a yawner. He's a groaner.

This is pretty rough Lee.

Johnston - Looks like he is ascending which is great, still a FV40 power grade which is going to be difficult for a 1B/OF/DH defensive projection. He has earned a 40 man spot IMO.

Edwards - Goes without saying ascending hit tool, but just saying "added" CF doesn't change the reality he is probably a below average defender everywhere. He deserves a shot soon.

Myers - Is exactly the kind of promise we should be seeing more in the farm even if he doesn't work out, so I agree another good one. A good find for this "inept" front office.

Bell - Bell's expected slash is *much* better than Garrett, and you also forgot to mention they dumped $10.5m in Segura to get him. Bell is more like a $9m a year player for them next year in new money (Cooper's money is accounted for here). I think we all agree Segura gone is a net-improvement so that has to go into your "good" category. This was a good deal. Johnston also won't be blocked as the team has high positional versatility. Best 11 position players are going to be on the roster next year IMO. He will get his shot don't worry. There is no rush.

Watson - Is a head case, not performing well, and contending trades move out FV45 guys for current producers. Bell is fine here for him. I'd rather contend + have Bell for cheaper then any comparable FA next year.

Robertson/Vargas/Hernandez - I agree with you here this one may look very bad in a few years, but those guys are 4+ years away so they have some time to develop other players. This one is a wait and see for me.

Eder - Velocity has DROPPED. Maybe it is short term post injury, but that's going to knock him out of a starter. This is a risky prospect that may turn into "AJ Puk" (who is good despite recent struggles) very quickly. Comparing the Marlins arms to one of the best SP in baseball is an extremely difficult comparison.

Burger - They just traded for a more athletic Mark Trumbo. He is not the core superstar bat they need, but he's going to be a useful 1B/DH/3B for 4 years and probably hit 100+ home runs for the franchise. Eder will have to be a consistent # 3 SP or better for them to "lose" this trade, a backend SP a wash, and a reliever a win. Fangraphs says it's trending to be a reliever. This trade is fine. I wouldn't be too concerned with - and have you heard this before - small sample size home/away splits. Also he is 70th percentile sprint speed so the not running part is huh? He should probably move off 3B within a year though I agree there.

Weathers - Younger than Eder, is a better physical athlete, struck out 11 guys per 9 in the minors this year (SSS), 7th overall pick pedigree. This is a great project. Look at what they did with Garrett. I think you are going to be pleasantly surprised here. I think Weathers is a keeper. San Diego fans are groaning the Marlins will fix him - because teams around the league are starting to fear the Marlins FO identifying pitchers so when they go out and get one, that is scary for them.

No team does business as poorly as the Marlins - A few fan bases will argue with you compared to the Marlins assembling a pitching staff that has "top 1" potential in baseball as soon as next year, but yes Bruce needs to spend money to overcome deficiencies. Rinse/repeat the last 2 offseasons here.


Cheer up buttercup. The problem is still Bruce, but the aggregate of all of these are fine and hopefully Vargas doesn't burn us. If anything, they needed to do MORE, i.e. a SS so Fish16 can lower his blood pressure

[lou]

Only ~15 years :p

But yeah, I'm happy with the deals. Not just about making us better this year, but future too. Does suck how many holes there still is, but they are at least generally hard to fill positions. Somehow we aren't even the worst C team in baseball lol

Welcome back old friend! Please pop up more than every 8 years.

I'd also quib they'd have needed 10+ guys 2018-2020, but they certainly need these last 3-4 guys (major major SS, starting OF/heavy platoon, starting catcher, 1-2 arm upgrades depending on who they trade to do the SS) next year. Bruce? Hello?

[lou]

Nobody was over the moon more for the Jazz-Gallen trade at the time than Lee. I liked Lee better when he just had bad takes. Now he has bad takes and an agenda, he was so horribly wrong about the team this year that he feels like he just has to be negative on every single move this FO makes until he's eventually right about something.

I want to point out the only reason the Gallen trade is/seems/looks bad is Jazz's injuries.

Gallen WAR per 180 IP - 3.7
Jazz WAR per 600 PA - 3.3

So yes, the Diamondbacks still "win" here as Gallen has been incrementally better, but Jazz has been awesome too when he plays. If we ignore the injuries (and yes I KNOW we cannot do that), Jazz has been very very good for the Marlins when he is on the field and they absolutely identified someone commensurate for how good Gallen is. This was a good trade, just unfortunate with the injuries. I still think this is a win-win for everyone, Jazz has just been hurt.

Also, Gallen is going to be very expensive as opposed to Jazz in arbitration FWIW. Those injuries are going to be able to buy the Marlins another player as Jazz is going to make a lot less ($10-15m easy) with less playing times these years. For a player of similar production, that is an unintended benefit if they can afford an extra reliever/platoon player each year just because Jazz was hurt early on. So there are some interesting ways to further evaluate this. If Gallen misses half a year next few years and Jazz stays healthy, this could flip quickly you know. This trade is just simply not as bad as it seems with Jazz having 3 control years and Gallen 2 more.

Big picture, the guy just needs to stay healthy. I think he should play whatever position of 2B, LF, or CF which is least taxing on his body forever, and mini-Buxton him for now with 1 off day per week mandatory + 1 DH game per week to further just get him off the field. Maybe Harrison Bader (or Bellinger) is the perfect FA for them to get to get Jazz to LF, and then trade pitching for a SS.

[Nick]

On Johnston. How many homers does he have to hit where we can just all agree that FV40 is wrong, a made up number, and move on? He's got 20 HRs in 408 PAs this year.

[lou]

On Johnston. How many homers does he have to hit where we can just all agree that FV40 is wrong, a made up number, and move on? He's got 20 HRs in 408 PAs this year.

15+ more this season, or 35+ next year if he spends it all in AAA.

It's AA/AAA pitching, he is 26 and old for the level, and he had 31 HR ages 22-25 over 1100 PA previously in A/AA.

I'll eat the crow if this is a swing path launch angle change producing results and he is having his own Daniel Murphy power explosion. If he was doing that, I think we'd be getting a lot more scouting references. His best prospect grade is MLB and he is behind Cody Morisette.

[fish16]

15+ more this season, or 35+ next year if he spends it all in AAA.

It's AA/AAA pitching, he is 26 and old for the level, and he had 31 HR ages 22-25 over 1100 PA previously in A/AA.

I'll eat the crow if this is a swing path launch angle change producing results and he is having his own Daniel Murphy power explosion. If he was doing that, I think we'd be getting a lot more scouting references. His best prospect grade is MLB and he is behind Cody Morisette.

I mean, the guy has not only 20 hr's in just 352 PA's this year, but he also has 29 2b's. He clearly has more power than the reports are indicating. At the very least he has average power, probably more at this point. He, like edwards, deserves a shot if not this year, then next year.

[fish16]

BTW, edwards had another 3 walks last night. He now has 38 walks to 18 strikeouts all year. It is completely absurd what he has done all year. He hasnt had a single lull. At this point, the guy is breaking down the door to come up here. There is nothing left to prove in AAA. Even if he isnt going to start everyday, fine, but he needs a role up here. you cant tell me he cant help, especially now that we have some more power in the lineup. That was the only plausible excuse previously. There are only so many slap hitters you can have in 1 lineup, fine. but now that we have a lineup of Soler, Jazz, Burger, Bell, Sanchez, DLC, there is more than enough room for another contact guy. Hell, you could even make the argument now that they kind of need 1 with the lowered OBP overall in the lineup.

At the very least, i hope to see the following lineup opening day next year:

2b- Edwards
1b- Arraez
DH- Bell
CF- Jazz
3b- Burger
RF- Sanchez
LF- DLC i guess but would hope for a stop gap signing. 1b and corner outfielders have a ton of guys available every year. Even if it is someone on DLC's level, just another option.
C- Trade for pitching
SS- trade or signing

Bench- Berti, Johnston, Amaya, backup C

If they really go for it and go for a high level C or SS (havent even begun to think about who might be available), that could be a really good lineup with the pitching we have. DLC and Sanchez hitting 3 and 4 is a bad lineup, them hitting 7th and 8th is a damn good lineup.

[fish16]

BTW, Wendle has now played in 42 consecutive games. Since the all star break, he has started all but 2 games. He is hitting .120, no extra base hits, 18.2% k rate, 3.6 % BB rate, .287 OPS, i didnt know this was possible but he has a WRC+ of -20 (yes, negative 20), and he has a 65.9% ground ball rate. He is hitting 3.38 ground balls per every fly ball. His iso is .000, which i again didnt think was possible.

He needs to go, especially because they didnt upgrade the C spot. We have no other C options, we absolutely do have other SS options, even if it might make the defense lack a little there if we put edwards there. It's not personal, he seems like a good dude, but at a certain point you just have to cut bait. He is a free agent at the end of the year.

[lou]

BTW, edwards had another 3 walks last night. He now has 38 walks to 18 strikeouts all year. It is completely absurd what he has done all year. He hasnt had a single lull. At this point, the guy is breaking down the door to come up here. There is nothing left to prove in AAA. Even if he isnt going to start everyday, fine, but he needs a role up here. you cant tell me he cant help, especially now that we have some more power in the lineup. That was the only plausible excuse previously. There are only so many slap hitters you can have in 1 lineup, fine. but now that we have a lineup of Soler, Jazz, Burger, Bell, Sanchez, DLC, there is more than enough room for another contact guy. Hell, you could even make the argument now that they kind of need 1 with the lowered OBP overall in the lineup.

At the very least, i hope to see the following lineup opening day next year:

2b- Edwards
1b- Arraez
DH- Bell
CF- Jazz
3b- Burger
RF- Sanchez
LF- DLC i guess but would hope for a stop gap signing. 1b and corner outfielders have a ton of guys available every year. Even if it is someone on DLC's level, just another option.
C- Trade for pitching
SS- trade or signing

Bench- Berti, Johnston, Amaya, backup C

If they really go for it and go for a high level C or SS (havent even begun to think about who might be available), that could be a really good lineup with the pitching we have. DLC and Sanchez hitting 3 and 4 is a bad lineup, them hitting 7th and 8th is a damn good lineup.

How about this next year. There are no FA SS available to mention, plenty of OF and SP.

Three big moves:

FA - Bader/Bellinger. Go for it.

Rogers + teenager prospects for the SS ---> (Joey Ortiz?). Rogers also lowers money as he hits arbitration.

Scott, Chargois, and fleeting FV40 reliever and teenager prospects for a ----> stud RHP club controlled reliever - someone like the Rangers may move Sborz or Twins Jax to get an elite lefty and middle men behind them. Yes this is to move some money also. They gotta save some bucks somewhere. Scott and Chargois in arbitration. Could swap Okert and Scott below and add $2m to this.

This team is $102m assuming Bader/Bellinger $20m or lower (or $104m if you swap Scott and Okert)

C ______, Fortes
1B Arraez, Bell(DH)
2B Edwards, Berti
SS NEW SS FOR ROGERS
3B Burger
LF Jazz, DLC
CF BELLINGER/BADER FA
RF Sanchez, Garcia

----> w/ Banfield, Johnston, Nunez, Amaya, Groshans, Mesa Jr., Myers, and Burdick in AAA and on 40 man roster

SP-R Sandy, Eury, Cabrera
SP-L Luzardo, Garrett
RP-R Lopez, NEW RHP FOR SCOTT, Bender, Brazoban
RP-L Puk, Okert, Nardi
13th Arm - _______

----> w/ Meyer, Weathers, Hoeing, Soriano, and Maldonado on 40 man roster, and Fulton and Monteverde not on 40 man roster. They have 1 more 40 man slot for an arm too which is currently Sixto, but if he's done, they can just do their normal and conjure up a new Brazoban


I have no solution for the catcher. There aren't even good trade targets TBH.

They might be able to do the arm internally as that 40 man group is strong.

They can easily do this team for $105m with nominal backloading to Bellinger or Bader.

[lou]

To further mention there --- > they need 300+ IP out of that blank like 13th arm, Meyer, Weathers, Hoeing, and Monteverde. I consider that SP6-10 effectively. A solid innings eater for 120+ IP and then sprinkling in the rest as guys get hurt or need a spot start or double header start, etc. is pretty easy to do here IMO. I like the idea of a 6 man rotation if they keep it simple, but they never skip Sandy and Luzardo. 32 starts for Sandy, 30 for Luzardo, and can get 25 to Garrett, Eury, Cabrera, and "13th + Weathers + Meyer." That makes a lot of sense to me and maybe Garrett is a little heavier there. They are still gonna have to pace Eury and Cabrera next year.

And there is one FA SS who offers some hope - Rosario - but I ignored him for you there. Plus the defense looks bad. SS is gonna have to be a trade. Orioles have quite a few guys who could work.

[fish16]

For SS, id go the peraza route or, even though ive given you shit about Rosario, if you can get him on a cheap deal after a down year, that's not a bad alternative. I dont love the player, but he is a decent enough hitter, should be cheap for a 1-2 year deal, and there is just no other options. Id rather do that than trade for a prospect who wont be ready next year. You get immediate, albeit mediocre, production, and you dont give up an asset to do it. Then just re-evaluate next year.

Id rather trade for a C. Toronto seems to have 20 of them and a need for pitching, figure out a deal, whether it's fulton, Rogers, Cabrera (i wouldnt do that), or some of the lower level guys. Danny jansen is a free agent to be after next year, so he would be a cheaper option, or you can go all in for Kirk, who has more control but hasnt had a great year hitting like he did last year. Either one works for me, they need some sort of impact addition there.

2b- Edwards
1b- Arraez
DH- Bell
CF- Jazz
3b- Burger
RF- Sanchez
LF- DLC
C- Kirk/Jansen
SS- Rosario

The only assets you're giving up would be pitching for the C they acquire. Then spend some money on legit bullpen arms or make some of the minor trades they seem to make every offseason for some legit complementary back end bullpen arms.

I wouldnt mind that at all, but i wouldnt give a ton to Rosario. It's just a value play for him coming off a down year. That's unfortunately about the best they can do.