2023 Game Thread

[lou]

Agree 100%

speaking of %’s, Fangraphs has us at 63.1% to make playoffs.

I think that is more about the Brewers, Mets, Cardinals, and Padres are somehow all bad. I am imaging the Giants get beat up by the other 3, DBacks cling on, Padres assert themselves as third team in that division, and the Marlins are in a real fight with the Phillies down the stretch for the last WC spot. Which is sort of what we thought pre-season, except it was Phillies, Brewers, and Marlins as a toss up for a last spot, and now it's just the Phillies as the Central sucks without St. Louis and the Brewers will overtake the Reds eventually (right?).

I think this number is more interesting - they have to play .500 to win 87 games here on out. That'll do it IMO. We all thought (rather sane individuals) they were a just under .500ish team before the year, so even if they regress to a reasonable expectation, they have a shot here as-is. Other teams must be asking for ludicrous trade returns for them not to make a move for a bat as it is perplexing to me they won't go get even a backup catcher upgrade.

[fish16]

I think that is more about the Brewers, Mets, Cardinals, and Padres are somehow all bad. I am imaging the Giants get beat up by the other 3, DBacks cling on, Padres assert themselves as third team in that division, and the Marlins are in a real fight with the Phillies down the stretch for the last WC spot. Which is sort of what we thought pre-season, except it was Phillies, Brewers, and Marlins as a toss up for a last spot, and now it's just the Phillies as the Central sucks without St. Louis and the Brewers will overtake the Reds eventually (right?).

I think this number is more interesting - they have to play .500 to win 87 games here on out. That'll do it IMO. We all thought (rather sane individuals) they were a just under .500ish team before the year, so even if they regress to a reasonable expectation, they have a shot here as-is. Other teams must be asking for ludicrous trade returns for them not to make a move for a bat as it is perplexing to me they won't go get even a backup catcher upgrade.

im guessing it's more to due with teams not committed to selling yet with the expanded playoffs. With 3 wild cards teams like the cubs can delude themselves into thinking they are in it with a good week or 2

[lou]

I’m definitely not going to say this until we hold our own against the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, Rangers of the league.

Hell, even the Mets and Phillies we’re 4-6 against this year.

Totally, but I'd just change that to the Phillies, DBacks, Padres, and Giants. Just beat two of them.

Can you imagine the Marlins in a short playoff series set-up going to a tighter 9-11 man pitching clump absent dead innings? The bullpen becomes Eury, Cabrera, Scott, Puk, Okert, Nardi, and Floro, and the rotation is presumably Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, and Rogers. Are Meyer and Eder both healthy as they might be in October?

This is a just get in scenario and you live and die with the pitching as we've been projecting for years. Although they still need to get two bats to score a few runs.

[fish16]

Totally, but I'd just change that to the Phillies, DBacks, Padres, and Giants. Just beat two of them.

Can you imagine the Marlins in a short playoff series set-up going to a tighter 9-11 man pitching clump absent dead innings? The bullpen becomes Eury, Cabrera, Scott, Puk, Okert, Nardi, and Floro, and the rotation is presumably Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, and Rogers. Are Meyer and Eder both healthy as they might be in October?

This is a just get in scenario and you live and die with the pitching as we've been projecting for years. Although they still need to get two bats to score a few runs.

not sure how you can presume rogers would be the one in the rotation when he has a fairly major injury and hasnt pitched well in over 2 years. I'd guess it would be cabrera.

[fish16]

on top of jazz and segura coming back, Cooper has really picked it up over the last 30 days and looks like he has the last few years when he has been healthy. Over the last 30 days he's hitting .282, .804 OPS, .487 slugging. Hopefully he keeps it up.

Sanchez has been awful. His ops got as high as .964 in early june and it's down to .747. .609 ops the last 30 days, .424 the last 15 days. a lot of non-competitive at bats too.

[fish16]

red sox going with something called kaleb ort as their starter tonight. career 6.08 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 47 career major league innings. 31 year old journeyman as well so not a prospect either. with garrett going tonight we need to take advantage.

[Nick]

Totally, but I'd just change that to the Phillies, DBacks, Padres, and Giants. Just beat two of them.

Can you imagine the Marlins in a short playoff series set-up going to a tighter 9-11 man pitching clump absent dead innings? The bullpen becomes Eury, Cabrera, Scott, Puk, Okert, Nardi, and Floro, and the rotation is presumably Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, and Rogers. Are Meyer and Eder both healthy as they might be in October?

This is a just get in scenario and you live and die with the pitching as we've been projecting for years. Although they still need to get two bats to score a few runs.

He said we're one of the best teams in the league, not make the playoffs. You don't have to be one of the best teams in the league to be a playoff team any more.

[fish16]

He said we're one of the best teams in the league, not make the playoffs. You don't have to be one of the best teams in the league to be a playoff team any more.

i said we've been one of the best teams in the league for a few months, which we have, both in terms of record and run differential. Also, even if we are going based on overall record, we have the 6th best record in the league.

[Nick]

i said we've been one of the best teams in the league for a few months, which we have, both in terms of record and run differential. Also, even if we are going based on overall record, we have the 6th best record in the league.

Ok, but we have to have one of the weakest schedules so far.

[Nick]

Our August and September schedule is brutal.

[lou]

He said we're one of the best teams in the league, not make the playoffs. You don't have to be one of the best teams in the league to be a playoff team any more.

Right, that is silly and I'm with you. I just think of the playoffs as its a crapshoot. Especially with the SP's ability to take over. The Marlins are definitely set up for postseason success with the pitching and are built to win series not divisions. So it's a just get in question for me.


Which keeps getting me back to the Rockies as there are no other catchers and E. Diaz is alright. They are going to be horrible for years and need so much pitching. Ryan McMahon is an incredible defensive 3B who hits the shit out of the ball (.910 OPS RHP, .803 AWAY for the anti-Coors crowd) this year. Why not McMahon????? Grichuk is a career .800+ OPS vs LHP and can play CF.

A surplus value analysis would easily say this is a good deal for the Rocks:

Eder, Cappe, Fulton/Monteverde, J.Miller/Fitterer, Pushard/Reynolds, Simpson, and Stallings (someone has to catch for them)
McMahon, E. Diaz, Grichuk

That clears $70m dollars off Rockies payroll (for Marlins, adds $12m this year, $18m in 2024, $12m in 2025, and $16m each in 2026 and 2027, all very doable) and which is a very very good pitcher they can sign for 4 years, and adds two top 100 prospects and 3+ really strong secondary arms. McMahon would be 28-32 to mention these years. His prime. With an immense defensive floor. Turning effectively McMahon into a $70m pitcher, Eder, Cappe, Fulton/Monteverde, and flyer prospects I think is a really good longterm strategy for them. They have no pitching in their system, some good 2B/SS/OF coming up a few years away so McMahon is worthless to them in a contending window (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/colorado...rospects-2023/). Eder and Fulton would probably be their best two SP prospects likely immediately.

Marlins would look awesome

2023

Fortes, E. Diaz
Cooper
Arraez, Segura
Wendle, Berti
McMahon
DLC, Soler
Jazz, Grichuk
Sanchez

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Cueto
Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers
Floro, Chargois
Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi


2024 (w/ Scott/Okert and Floro to trade to lower payroll to this year's level)

Fortes, E. Diaz
Arraez, ______ (Berry)
Segura, Berti
______, Amaya (Nunez)
McMahon
DLC
Jazz, Edwards (Mesa Jr.)
Sanchez

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Meyer
Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers (Fulton/Monteverde)
Chargois, Bender, Brazoban (Maldonado)
Puk, Scott/Okert, Nardi

We're talking a 1B/RF type that can hit lefties, and they probably will need to make a second plant the flag move for a SS, but I mean there are 8 SP listed there + I am just releasing Cueto here so he could be kept if one of them goes and he looks OK.


Rockies are toast and need help longterm. I think you blow them away to get these guys before the upcoming Phillies series in a week.

[fish16]

Ok, but we have to have one of the weakest schedules so far.

SOS is hard to find but the website im looking at has us as the 11th hardest schedule so far and the 8th hardest for the rest of the year.

http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/tea...r-rankings.php

[fish16]

Right, that is silly and I'm with you. I just think of the playoffs as its a crapshoot. Especially with the SP's ability to take over. The Marlins are definitely set up for postseason success with the pitching and are built to win series not divisions. So it's a just get in question for me.


Which keeps getting me back to the Rockies as there are no other catchers and E. Diaz is alright. They are going to be horrible for years and need so much pitching. Ryan McMahon is an incredible defensive 3B who hits the shit out of the ball (.910 OPS RHP, .803 AWAY for the anti-Coors crowd) this year. Why not McMahon????? Grichuk is a career .800+ OPS vs LHP and can play CF.

A surplus value analysis would easily say this is a good deal for the Rocks:

Eder, Cappe, Fulton/Monteverde, J.Miller/Fitterer, Pushard/Reynolds, Simpson, and Stallings (someone has to catch for them)
McMahon, E. Diaz, Grichuk

That clears $70m dollars off Rockies payroll (for Marlins, adds $12m this year, $18m in 2024, $12m in 2025, and $16m each in 2026 and 2027, all very doable) and which is a very very good pitcher they can sign for 4 years, and adds two top 100 prospects and 3+ really strong secondary arms. McMahon would be 28-32 to mention these years. His prime. With an immense defensive floor. Turning effectively McMahon into a $70m pitcher, Eder, Cappe, Fulton/Monteverde, and flyer prospects I think is a really good longterm strategy for them. They have no pitching in their system, some good 2B/SS/OF coming up a few years away so McMahon is worthless to them in a contending window (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/colorado...rospects-2023/). Eder and Fulton would probably be their best two SP prospects likely immediately.

Marlins would look awesome

2023

Fortes, E. Diaz
Cooper
Arraez, Segura
Wendle, Berti
McMahon
DLC, Soler
Jazz, Grichuk
Sanchez

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Cueto
Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers
Floro, Chargois
Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi


2024 (w/ Scott/Okert and Floro to trade to lower payroll to this year's level)

Fortes, E. Diaz
Arraez, ______ (Berry)
Segura, Berti
______, Amaya (Nunez)
McMahon
DLC
Jazz, Edwards (Mesa Jr.)
Sanchez

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Meyer
Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers (Fulton/Monteverde)
Chargois, Bender, Brazoban (Maldonado)
Puk, Scott/Okert, Nardi

We're talking a 1B/RF type that can hit lefties, and they probably will need to make a second plant the flag move for a SS, but I mean there are 8 SP listed there + I am just releasing Cueto here so he could be kept if one of them goes and he looks OK.


Rockies are toast and need help longterm. I think you blow them away to get these guys before the upcoming Phillies series in a week.

that would be a truly horrific trade. Forget the small sample of this year, Mcmahon has a career OPS of .674 outside of coors, and is due 56 million over the next 4 years. Hard Pass. Same on Diaz. He's never been a good hitter and he has a .669 ops on the road. Grichuk is a mediocre outfielder with a sub .300 career OBP and a combined 2 WAR over the last 5 years. None of those guys are moving the needle. you can find better upgrades elsewhere for cheaper, both in terms of prospects and future salary.

Eder, Cappe, Fulton/Monteverde, AND Miller? What are you smoking. You're giving up a ton of talent, taking on a lot of salary for just a decent player, all for guys who havent even hit outside of coors either this year or for their career? Awful trade.

No need to take on salary like that if you arent getting a true impact guy. They can get Candelario for not much, a guy like Yan gomes for cheap, and then go find one more reliever for cheap. Those players are better than what youre getting from colorado, cheaper than what you are giving up, and dont have salary well into the future

McMahon has played in Coors his whole career and this is the first year he has a wrc+ of more than 95, and his career home road splits are very Coors heavy

Per BA, you would be giving up our 3rd, 5th, 7th, 16th, and 28th prospect for a decent 3b with a big long term salary, a bad backup C who has never really hit outside of coors, and a journeyman outfielder. truly awful idea.

[lou]

Some people are truly just beyond comprehension and don't realize players who are 2+ WAR per 600 PA for their entire career (ages 22-28), with a 2.8+ WAR pace their last 2.5 seasons as they have spiked as they enter their prime ages 26-28, which is all adjusted for park factors with mega-defensive and splits proof floors with hard hit rates so any mention of Coors is irrelevant, and paid less then market-rate for solid starters, as such individuals like Josh Bell, Martin Perez, and Joc Pederson make $16-20m per year in free agency now, are not bad ideas. Especially when help is needed mid-season and options are limited with few teams out of it, especially further regarding the catcher market which has been discussed ad-nauseam where no one really good is available as teams like the 3.5 back larger market Cubs with the best run differential in their division are buyers not sellers (Gomes is not an option) and mid .600 OPS catchers are solid options in a depressed offensive environment league. Let's keep throwing out Yuli with a low .600 OPS analytical performance at 1B and no defensive chops, as well as Segura who has a .515 OPS (who also analytically is a mid .600 OPS guy which is a platoon option versus LHP at best) and see if one can win with thoughts, Stallings, Davis, Garcia, Hampson, and prayers against the Phillies who are already being rumored for Goldschmidt and friends as they have the juice (Painter and M. Abel are higher ranked P prospect than Eder or Meyer) to get it done. Let's ignore the August schedule and not try and run up the score right now in June. Let's not do anything prior to Steve giving Ohtani $550m which is coming. Let's get into bidding wars over rentals like Candelario literally everyone will want and have to overpay to win that bid for 2+ months of control versus trading assets you can live without for years of control of a rock solid ascending infielder that aligns with your contending window, plus one-stop shopping so you're not overpaying on multiple deals as there is an economy of scale position here in an environment 20 teams may be contenders. Let's keep not contending for literally 20 years and be more concerned about hypothetical performers who might be good in 2025/26 who we would love to be 2-2.8 WAR paced players at the end of the day as that's a 90th percentile best case scenario if not higher. It is time to plant flags and go for it and two FV50, one FV45+, and a few FV40 guys (as player's value not system rank is the evaluation) do not matter for 6.5 years of player control at unarguable below market prices based on last year's free agency when combined with the enormous club control of the team's starting rotation and top 6 position players have. One must give value to get value which is a hoarding concept the Marlins (and some others) haven't figured out yet. If the Rockies accept their team does in fact suck this much (which it does as compared to their division) and they need to reboot, we could only be so lucky. The juice is Werth the squeeze. It's time to win and today, not July 31st.

[fish16]

Some people are truly just beyond comprehension and don't realize players who are 2+ WAR per 600 PA for their entire career (ages 22-28), with a 2.8+ WAR pace their last 2.5 seasons as they have spiked as they enter their prime ages 26-28, which is all adjusted for park factors with mega-defensive and splits proof floors with hard hit rates so any mention of Coors is irrelevant, and paid less then market-rate for solid starters, as such individuals like Josh Bell, Martin Perez, and Joc Pederson make $16-20m per year in free agency now, are not bad ideas. Especially when help is needed mid-season and options are limited with few teams out of it, especially further regarding the catcher market which has been discussed ad-nauseam where no one really good is available as teams like the 3.5 back larger market Cubs with the best run differential in their division are buyers not sellers (Gomes is not an option) and mid .600 OPS catchers are solid options in a depressed offensive environment league. Let's keep throwing out Yuli with a low .600 OPS analytical performance at 1B and no defensive chops, as well as Segura who has a .515 OPS (who also analytically is a mid .600 OPS guy which is a platoon option versus LHP at best) and see if one can win with thoughts, Stallings, Davis, Garcia, Hampson, and prayers against the Phillies who are already being rumored for Goldschmidt and friends as they have the juice (Painter and M. Abel are higher ranked P prospect than Eder or Meyer) to get it done. Let's ignore the August schedule and not try and run up the score right now in June. Let's not do anything prior to Steve giving Ohtani $550m which is coming. Let's get into bidding wars over rentals like Candelario literally everyone will want and have to overpay to win that bid for 2+ months of control versus trading assets you can live without for years of control of a rock solid ascending infielder that aligns with your contending window, plus one-stop shopping so you're not overpaying on multiple deals as there is an economy of scale position here in an environment 20 teams may be contenders. Let's keep not contending for literally 20 years and be more concerned about hypothetical performers who might be good in 2025/26 who we would love to be 2-2.8 WAR paced players at the end of the day as that's a 90th percentile best case scenario if not higher. It is time to plant flags and go for it and two FV50, one FV45+, and a few FV40 guys (as player's value not system rank is the evaluation) do not matter for 6.5 years of player control at unarguable below market prices based on last year's free agency when combined with the enormous club control of the team's starting rotation and top 6 position players have. One must give value to get value which is a hoarding concept the Marlins (and some others) haven't figured out yet. If the Rockies accept their team does in fact suck this much (which it does as compared to their division) and they need to reboot, we could only be so lucky. The juice is Werth the squeeze. It's time to win and today, not July 31st.

No one is arguing Mcmahon is a bad player. But 56 million over 4 years for a guy who has mediocre numbers outside of coors and whose value is not as a middle of the order hitter but rather as a really good defensive 3b plus a mediocre backup C and a journeyman OF for your number 3, 5, 7, 16, and 28 prospects is a really dumb trade. Mcmahon as a player is fine, but the price you proposed to give up for him is ridiculous.

the coors factor is not irrelevant. His WAR is largely predicated on his defense, which is obviously really good. They dont need a dynamite defender at 3b right now, they need a middle of the order run producing bat. For his career he has a .674 OPS outside of Coors field. Sure, this year is better. But are you going to commit yourself to 56 million over 4 years for a potential glove first, non run producing 3b if the larger sample of his career numbers outside of coors field is what he is? He also has a career 28% K% and it's even worse this year at 30.4%. Not even getting to his slightly inflated .360 BABIP.

Candelario is a better hitter than him, doesnt cost you 56 million over the next 4 years, and will be significantly cheaper prospect wise and will probably make a bigger impact offensively than Mcmahon would. McMahon's last 4 years of WRC+ are 76, 94, 95, and 110. His career WRC+ is 91. Candelario's are 140, 120, 80, and 116. His career WRC+ is 101. They need middle of the order bats. Candelario is a better hitter than him, and you dont have the possibility of falling off a cliff outside of coors and committing yourself to a glove first mediocre hitting 3b for 56 million over 4 years. Candelario is even better than him this year, already putting up 2.3 WAR compared to McMahon's 1.6, and Fangraph's defensive metric also has Candelario as a better defender thus far this year.

This idea that there is going to be a bidding war over a soon to be free agent like Candelario is just nonsense. He will cost a couple decent prospects maybe. Just look at last year- Dodgers got free agent to be Gallo, albeit in a down year, for their 15th best prospect. The best comp is probably the padres getting brandon drury. They got him for a single prospect who is now their 15th best prospect. Astros got free agent to be Christian Vazquez for their 28th and 29th prospect. Red Sox got tommy pham for a PTBNL. Yankees got Benintendi for 3 guys who are now their 10th, 21st, and 24th best prospect. Mets got vogelbach from the pirates for a mediocre reliever.

Decent to good free agents to be like Candelario dont cost much at the deadline. go get the better bat and figure out 3b long term in the offseason if you have to. Better than giving up 3 of your top 10 prospects for a guy with mediocre offensive numbers outside of coors field.

I'm fine with getting a controllable asset, but Mcmahon is paid too much for a guy who could very well be a super mediocre offensive 3b full time outside of coors field.

Go get Candelario and maybe a reliever from the nats and you can wait till the cubs realize they are out of it for a guy like Gomes at the deadline as an improvement on Stallings. No one is saying hoard prospects, but you dont just deal them for the sake of dealing for a guy who is a career 94 OPS+, 91 WRC+, and is owed 56 million over 4 years because he is having by far his best season over half a season. This is the only season of the guys career that he is above 95 WRC+ and 98 OPS+.