2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

at first jeimer candelario didnt do much for me as a trade option, but looking more into his play i think he would be a good play if they are willing to cut back segura's play time or get creative with arraez playing some 1b. mostly because he is a free agent to be so the price would likely be very affordable. Good power, really good 3b defense apparently, and can dH too if needed. outside of a down year last year, he has been a really good hitter in 3 of the last 4 years dating back to the shortened 2020 year.

BABIP isnt high so it isnt a fluke this year, but he has a healthy 9% BB rate for his career and his K rate is a career low at 19% this year. WRC+ by year dating back to 2020- 140, 120, 80, and this year it's 115.

him and say hunter harvey wouldnt be sexy but it would improve this team and wouldnt cost much.

[fish16]

this is a really important game tonight and this series in general is big with the braves coming up this weekend. Need sandy to figure it out tonight. Im already counting on at least losing 2/3 to the braves on the road so with Sandy, Luzardo, and Garrett going against a mediocre red sox team we need at least 2/3.

[fish16]

is it me or do our pitchers never seem to come back as scheduled when they get injured. Latest one is cabrera. He's been out 14 days today and he was only supposed to miss 2 turns in the rotation and now it's been 2 turns and havent heard anything about him coming back. Hopefully there has been no set back. If he can return and be fine it honestly will have worked out pretty well because hoeing has been perfect and it helps lower cabrera's innings count on the year and allow him to pitch a little deeper into the year without running into a potential innings limit.

[rmc523]

is it me or do our pitchers never seem to come back as scheduled when they get injured. Latest one is cabrera. He's been out 14 days today and he was only supposed to miss 2 turns in the rotation and now it's been 2 turns and havent heard anything about him coming back. Hopefully there has been no set back. If he can return and be fine it honestly will have worked out pretty well because hoeing has been perfect and it helps lower cabrera's innings count on the year and allow him to pitch a little deeper into the year without running into a potential innings limit.

I feel like that's been true of just about all injuries on this team for years now.

What starts as a hang nail turns into arm amputation.

[Namaste]

Eury. So far, extremely awe inspiring.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eury-perez-starting-strong/

[Nick]

Eury. So far, extremely awe inspiring.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eury-perez-starting-strong/

Very interesting article, and good analysis of success. I watch Eury and I don't see the electricity we saw from Jose. His fastball doesn't miss a ton of bats, his secondary pitches don't have super eye-popping movement, but he's so good at locating those secondary pitches, and the fact that they are working off that 100 mph fastball, that's what makes him so good right now. It's crazy that he's got 4 above average to great pitches as a 20-year old.

[Nick]

this is a really important game tonight and this series in general is big with the braves coming up this weekend. Need sandy to figure it out tonight. Im already counting on at least losing 2/3 to the braves on the road so with Sandy, Luzardo, and Garrett going against a mediocre red sox team we need at least 2/3.

I don't really agree that this series is any more important than others, but I do agree next 2 games are key for Sandy. If he gives up another big inning you gotta think about doing something to get his head straight. (IL with AAA rehab maybe)

[fish16]

I don't really agree that this series is any more important than others, but I do agree next 2 games are key for Sandy. If he gives up another big inning you gotta think about doing something to get his head straight. (IL with AAA rehab maybe)

i think it's important in terms of not taking a step back just because im counting the braves series as at least losing 2/3. if we can just have a .500 week id take it with 7 games next week at home to end the first half. Also because we have 3 good pitchers going for us with hoeing not scheduled to pitch this series. we should theoretically have the pitching advantage every game this series so taking advantage of that is important.

[Erick]

It’s not likely that Segura will continue to have a .224 BABIP

I think you misunderstand BABIP a lot.

[fish16]

I think you misunderstand BABIP a lot.

i dont think he does. there is nothing in his peripherals that indicate that BABIP is what it should be. There is a reason the leaguewide average year after year is in the .300s. He can both be terrible so far this year and be the recipient of bad luck that makes it even worse.

[rmc523]

i think it's important in terms of not taking a step back just because im counting the braves series as at least losing 2/3. if we can just have a .500 week id take it with 7 games next week at home to end the first half. Also because we have 3 good pitchers going for us with hoeing not scheduled to pitch this series. we should theoretically have the pitching advantage every game this series so taking advantage of that is important.

Yeah, I have to agree here. Sure, all series should be "equal" but it'll be important to counterbalance the Atlanta series, which given recent history is likely to be rough.

[lou]

Very interesting article, and good analysis of success. I watch Eury and I don't see the electricity we saw from Jose. His fastball doesn't miss a ton of bats, his secondary pitches don't have super eye-popping movement, but he's so good at locating those secondary pitches, and the fact that they are working off that 100 mph fastball, that's what makes him so good right now. It's crazy that he's got 4 above average to great pitches as a 20-year old.

He is not Fernandez, but that is an unrealistic standard as the best of the best. He was a different level.

Eury is still incredible though. He very quickly might get into Sandy, Brown, and Beckett level territory which is just awesome.

[Erick]

i dont think he does. there is nothing in his peripherals that indicate that BABIP is what it should be. There is a reason the leaguewide average year after year is in the .300s. He can both be terrible so far this year and be the recipient of bad luck that makes it even worse.

You guys have been doing this since like April in the other thread when you said “Arraez BABIP is 305 points higher than Segura’s” in the other thread.

It’s pretty irrelevant. Even if he’s been a little unlucky, he’s still a bad every day starter. His BABIP is currently .224. His xBA is .241. The league wide average is irrelevant. He is one of the worst hitters in baseball, in terms of every day starters.

Also, it’s worth noting that Segura has basically been a really bad hitter for a rather large sample, as it is, against right-handed pitching. He has no business playing at all against righties. Maybe a start here and there against lefties, and he’s fine as a bench infielder.

A lot of his value came from his defense at 2B, a position he’s no longer playing. We definitely need an upgrade at 3B.

[Erick]

Among players with 200 plate appearances this year, Jean Segura is the WORST hitter in baseball.

He has an offensive value of -18.4 on Fangraphs. 2nd worst is Javier Baez at -14.3.

Segura is basically Jacob Stallings bad, but he’s going to play a lot more since Fortes (who is not great either, but better than this at least) is basically covering 60% of the games at catcher at this point.

Segura is locked in as the starting 3B unless we make a trade. We definitely need to make a trade for a 3B.

[fish16]

You guys have been doing this since like April in the other thread when you said “Arraez BABIP is 305 points higher than Segura’s” in the other thread.

It’s pretty irrelevant. Even if he’s been a little unlucky, he’s still a bad every day starter. His BABIP is currently .224. His xBA is .241. The league wide average is irrelevant. He is one of the worst hitters in baseball, in terms of every day starters.

Also, it’s worth noting that Segura has basically been a really bad hitter for a rather large sample, as it is, against right-handed pitching. He has no business playing at all against righties. Maybe a start here and there against lefties, and he’s fine as a bench infielder.

A lot of his value came from his defense at 2B, a position he’s no longer playing. We definitely need an upgrade at 3B.

And his BABIP has been bad all year. No one is arguing he has been remotely good, but that doesnt preclude him from also being super unlucky thus far which is making him even worse.

His expected numbers have him as a low .600's OPS. He currently has a .493 OPS. That is the definition of someone who has had bad luck. That doesnt make him good this year either. The two arent mutually exclusive. His expected slugging is .332 and his current actual slugging percentage is .234. His expected batting average is 51 points higher than his actual batting average.

He also hasnt been "No business playing against righties" bad for years. He was an average .669 last year, in 2021 against righties it was .736, in 2020 it was .746, He does hit lefties better for his career, but he has never been some platoon guy. He has been one of the most consistently solid productive guys for 7 straight years coming into this year.

If he is what he has been for 7 straight years coming into this year, that's not close to one of the worst hitters in baseball in terms of every day starters. He's been a very solid hitter for years, and it isnt just relative to 2b. His numbers play at 3b as well. Even with this year and his first 3-4 full years where he hit in the .600's OPS, he is still a career .729 OPS guy. you dont do that without being a very productive player. He had a WRC+ from 105-126 for 6 out of the last 7 years before this year.

He has been terrible, but what you're doing is completely misrepresenting who he has been for his entire career. He will be better the remainder of the year or else he will have had one of the most unlucky seasons in league history.