2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

This year Sandy has different innings allowing the following amounts of runs, 5 today, 2 different innings of 2 runs against the nats last time out, 5 against the a's, 2 against the padres, 3 against the giants, 2 different innings allowing 3 runs against the reds, 2 in an inning against the braves, an inning of 4 against the dbacks, and then the game against the phillies with an inning of 4 runs and another of 5 runs.

He has still pitched into the 6th inning or later in 12 of his 14 starts. He just needs to fix whatever is causing these blowups, because he's still pitching well outside of the big innings which is the most frustrating part of all.

[Todd]

I dont know why but today I became genuinely curious as to who the teams emergency catcher is.

[fish16]

Mike Mordecai or Alfredo amezaga

[lou]

I dont know why but today I became genuinely curious as to who the teams emergency catcher is.

Zunino was released by Cleveland.

He has a -.1 WAR his last 250+ PA so this, so this is potentially a 1 win upgrade over the -1.2 WAR Stallings has produced his Marlins career over roughly 500 PA.

Progress.

[Todd]

I am actually pretty fine with Fortes behind the plate.

In his first 71 AB this season he hit .183/.237/.225 with a .226 BABIP.

Over his last 74 AB he has hit .311/.350/.473 with a .345 BABIP.

With a normalized BABIP he is probably a high 600s to low 700s OPS bat with good very good defense.

While that isn't an All Star or silver slugger probably, and he won't ever be a Realmuto, he is a solid average MLB starting catcher IMO.

[Lee Stone]

I dont know why but today I became genuinely curious as to who the teams emergency catcher is.

I've always heard Jon Berti.

[Nick]

I am actually pretty fine with Fortes behind the plate.

In his first 71 AB this season he hit .183/.237/.225 with a .226 BABIP.

Over his last 74 AB he has hit .311/.350/.473 with a .345 BABIP.

With a normalized BABIP he is probably a high 600s to low 700s OPS bat with good very good defense.

While that isn't an All Star or silver slugger probably, and he won't ever be a Realmuto, he is a solid average MLB starting catcher IMO.

I think most people on the board are in agreement with this. I think if Fortes is your main guy, though, you need a really good backup who plays a lot.

[fish16]

fortes is fine, nothing special but definitely starting caliber. His OPS by month has been .525, .684, ..754. That's why i think you make a slight impovement with a guy like yan gomes and really try to get an impact bat at 1b, 3b, or SS. Especially because even the best catcher addition they make will only play 4 times a week. Get a guy who will play every day and can be a consistent impact guy in the middle of the order. Gomes, Goldschmidt level bat, and a guy like Gallegos really does a lot to improve the team once Jazz comes back and edwards hopefully comes back.

Even without goldschmidt, you can get a lesser level guy and still have a net of Jazz, Big bat, edwards, gomes, gallegos while Hampson, Davis, Brazoban/Bradley, Stallings all go. That is a major improvement.

[fish16]

i think evan fitterer would be dealt in some sort of deal at the deadline. Really promising guy when he was drafted, and he is really putting together a nice season. He's only 22, in AA, has a 3.25 ERA in 63.2 innings, 73 k's, he just needs to get the walks down because he has 43 already this year.

I think he can be someone who gets you a quality reliever or a guy like Yan Gomes and that would be all you have to give up.

[fish16]

ian lewis also is slowly starting to figure it out in jupiter. has improved every month and this month so far has cut back the k's a lot. I think you see him in the 700's OPS before too long

[fish16]

scouts are high on marco vargas and with his early returns you can see why. I think he goes up to jupiter soon. In FCL he is hitting .295, .944 OPS, 14 bb's and 7 walks, plus perfect 5/5 in sb's plus a HR and 5 doubles in 44 ab's. just turned 18 a month ago.

[lou]

I think most people on the board are in agreement with this. I think if Fortes is your main guy, though, you need a really good backup who plays a lot.

Fortes Career
vs LHP .812 OPS
vs RHP .667 OPS

That .667 OPS may not seem a lot, but the 30th best catcher in 2022 and 40th best catcher in 2021 had a .667 OPS so that does play as a high end backup level of production. Combined with the exceptional lefty rate, very good framing, and neutral base running (which is above average for a catcher as they are all tubs), he's definitely a very solid starter overall vs RHP and a great one against lefties. His career line of 2.4 WAR over 434 PA (with a .267 career BABIP) is very good. Just posting the data as yes, I think most people support this view on him and if they don't, they should support this view on him as these numbers don't lie and that's becoming a significant sample.

I think it goes without saying they need someone who can hit some RHP a bit and isn't terrible defensively, especially in the run game which is his weakness. You can understand what they were thinking with Austin Allen (lefty) for AAA to just get a right basher if he worked out. Stallings had a .763 OPS vs RHP in 2021 and was superb defensively. Sigh.


Elias Diaz has an .840 OPS vs RHP in 2023, was not good last year, and a .779 OPS vs RHP in 2021. Three year split vs RHP is probably .245/.295/.400 over 600 PA. Even if that slugging is going down because of Coors, this is an immense upgrade over Stallings. He is solid at controlling the base paths also. I don't see Oakland and the Nats having catchers to move that help, and Perez is obviously a different monster if that were to happen. No one else in baseball is probably selling a catcher right now as they are a hot streak from contending, so he is probably it for right now if we like him. Hard to say.

[Lee Stone]

Diaz would be a major improvement over Stallings.

[lou]

Diaz would be a major improvement over Stallings.

Yea. I am definitely into a reasonable trade for E. Diaz and Grichuk. They make around $13.75m They'd need Stallings to catch their staff rest of the year and maybe get lucky with him rebounding, so I do think something very whatever like this would get it done. It's a 5-2 trade.

E. Diaz, Grichuk
Millbrandt/Fitterer, R. Hernandez/Peguero/Gerardo/I. Lewis/Groshans, Reynolds/Pushard/F. Sanchez/Reliever Arm in A ball, OUT30, and Stallings

Probably adds $12m to Marlins payroll next two years removing Stallings. Means nothing to the Marlins prospect wise and might add 2 wins with E. Diaz RHP splits and Grichuk's LHP splits versus Stallings and whatever the F the Marlins would be playing in the OF (Hampson?). There is not some insignificant hope for the Rockies for those guys so I think they'd do it.

Thus setting up a trade for an infielder and maybe another rental SP. Cue the Luzardo/Scott for Westburg or Peraza and friends move, and then find an innings eater 4th SP (Greinke!) and trust Sandy, Rogers, and Cueto to carry an innings load, with Garrett and an innings eater a little less innings but still a lot, and targeted innings from Cabrea, Eury, and checks notes, Hoeing is pretty good! I would trust Puk, Okert, Nardi, Floro, and Chargois on top of this, which would be 13 pitchers with Brazoban, Soriano, and maybe Eder as the injury replacements.

To mention, exact financial numbers here, Luzardo/Scott clears $2.6m for Marlins this year, and maybe $4.5-5m for arbitration tender for Luzardo, thus a Greinke move would be salary neutral, so they'd have around $18m more to absorb/spend if 2024 payroll is to match 2023. Basically, the economics work even for shitty Bruce where they could add another longterm piece somewhere if necessary now or next year.

It just makes sense on paper assuming the Rockies aren't smoking crack as to these bench players.

I would be so into this, we'll say it is Westburg for Luzardo/Scott and non of the parenthesis guys in 2024 for Greinke:

2023

Fortes, E. Diaz
Arraez
Westburg
Wendle, Amaya
Berti, Segura
DLC, Soler
Jazz, Grichuk
Sanchez

Sandy, Greinke, Cabrera, Eury, Cueto, Hoeing
Rogers, Garrett
Floro, Chargois
Puk, Okert, Nardi

2024 --- > With $18million to spend or $24m if they don't option Cueto for 1-2 offensive upgrades. This is probably cutting Cueto for a significant DH and whatever backup OF who can hit LHP.

Fortes, E. Diaz
Arraez, _____
Westburg
Amaya (Nasim)
Berti, Segura
DLC
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez, Burdick/______

Sandy, Cabrera, Rogers Eury, Garrett, Cueto
Meyer, Chargois, Hoeing (Brazoban, Soriano, Maldonado)
Puk, Eder, Okert, Nardi (Monteverde, Fulton)


Would love it. Still have Cappe, Watson, Berry, and Mack here.

[rmc523]

Diaz has "away from COL" + "Marlins affect" collapse written all over him, IMO.