2023 Game Thread

[lou]

I think I would not be in favor of re-signing Jazz at this point. 102 games missed last year. Looks like he's going to miss at least the next 30 games. Production not all that great when he's been healthy this year. Guy has a lot to prove.

I think I'd do the opposite and use that against him. He has been very solid against RHP this year and was amazing last year and is showing top defense at frankly 2 positions. That's an offensive ceiling if he has a RHP split and even more if he does anything on lefties as he should be better, and a defensive floor. It'll be hard to get killed on him here basically with the defense even if he's a true platoon player forever. He's probably an elite one with this profile. If we're looking for value, they finally have the argument against him with health versus the explosiveness of last year's offense and this year's defense. Much like Buxton - who is signed to one of the best deals in baseballs - buy low and make the bet he will just eventually be healthy. Kevin Kiermaier got $9m in free agency this year at 33 for some perspective. Joc Pederson a $19m tender. If all Jazz does is become a RHP DH and part time defensive fielder to keep him up right over 400-450 PA, he's going to be worth it IMO.

Basically, Jazz could be incredible value right now with say a 5/$45-50m deal with a 6th year option for $20-25m that's 2-3 free agency years. His arbitration numbers might not be scary now with the time off/some lackluster AVG/other stat so they could go year to year and get great 2024-2026 value (call it 3/$20-25 next 3 years all not guaranteed?), but securing the extra years when he is 29-31 years old might be insanely valuable. Especially if year 6 is the option which is the real benefit here. For Jazz, that's a lot of money if there is some uncertainty in his longterm profile.

I'd still sign all three (Arraez, Luzardo, Jazz) to appropriate deals as soon as possible. I would just view this as opportunity on Jazz.

[lou]

Unless Jazz would sign on the cheap, I would trade him before investing big. Names like Cowser, Westburg, Mayo and more from the Baltimore farm would be great adds.

You just keep him in arbitration and have a ton of leverage still next year with 2 more years of control, it just becomes a "Pablo or Reynolds" deal instead of potentially greater value one now if Jazz then works out more later. Which is still fine as if hes awesome, hes awesome.

And Baltimore would want pitching. They aren't a match. Rogers, Eder, Floro, Scott, and friends for those names makes a ton of sense though.

[Nick]

I think I'd do the opposite and use that against him. He has been very solid against RHP this year and was amazing last year and is showing top defense at frankly 2 positions. That's an offensive ceiling if he has a RHP split and even more if he does anything on lefties as he should be better, and a defensive floor. It'll be hard to get killed on him here basically with the defense even if he's a true platoon player forever. He's probably an elite one with this profile. If we're looking for value, they finally have the argument against him with health versus the explosiveness of last year's offense and this year's defense. Much like Buxton - who is signed to one of the best deals in baseballs - buy low and make the bet he will just eventually be healthy. Kevin Kiermaier got $9m in free agency this year at 33 for some perspective. Joc Pederson a $19m tender. If all Jazz does is become a RHP DH and part time defensive fielder to keep him up right over 400-450 PA, he's going to be worth it IMO.

Basically, Jazz could be incredible value right now with say a 5/$45-50m deal with a 6th year option for $20-25m that's 2-3 free agency years. His arbitration numbers might not be scary now with the time off/some lackluster AVG/other stat so they could go year to year and get great 2024-2026 value (call it 3/$20-25 next 3 years all not guaranteed?), but securing the extra years when he is 29-31 years old might be insanely valuable. Especially if year 6 is the option which is the real benefit here. For Jazz, that's a lot of money if there is some uncertainty in his longterm profile.

I'd still sign all three (Arraez, Luzardo, Jazz) to appropriate deals as soon as possible. I would just view this as opportunity on Jazz.

Only thing I'll say against this is he's gotten way more publicity than his production has warranted, which makes me think getting him locked into a super-cheap deal may not be realistic. I could be wrong, though.

[lou]

To add - Jazz is playing like a 3 WAR/600 PA player *this* year with a .693 OPS. I'll take that all day if that's the floor, understanding it is a career .744 OPS and .793 RHP OPS so that would just scale up if this is who he is with no improvement. I don't see how he isn't a 2 WAR floor here with 6 WAR upside. They won't get killed on a deal if all they get is a 2 WAR player. Further noting, he's effectively an .875+ OPS bat vs RHP his last 300 PA against them.

Shitty cheap teams have to take some swings. I'd die on this hill and not fault them if he completely crashes and burns. This is within my risk tolerance if they can do the deal for say under $60m.

[Nick]

To add - Jazz is playing like a 3 WAR/600 PA player *this* year with a .693 OPS. I'll take that all day if that's the floor, understanding it is a career .744 OPS and .793 RHP OPS so that would just scale up if this is who he is with no improvement. I don't see how he isn't a 2 WAR floor here with 6 WAR upside. They won't get killed on a deal if all they get is a 2 WAR player. Further noting, he's effectively an .875+ OPS bat vs RHP his last 300 PA against them.

Shitty cheap teams have to take some swings. I'd die on this hill and not fault them if he completely crashes and burns. This is within my risk tolerance if they can do the deal for say under $60m.

How is that the floor if he hasn't even come close to getting 600 PAs in a season in his career?

[lou]

How is that the floor if he hasn't even come close to getting 600 PAs in a season in his career?

It's the pacing. So Jazz is hurt 1/3rd the year, and they get a 1 WAR bench replacement. If Jazz is playing at a 3 WAR pace, it's effectively a 2.33 WAR starter combined. That is very good for the prices we are talking about here. With superstar upside if he is this good defensively.

I think Arraez and Luzardo are a higher priority to sign now, but Jazz is above the line for me and I'd use any angle to get that extension as I believe in him. Everyone else would have to be super deals as they can wait.

[sports24/7]

The player I'd explore trading ASAP is Soler. He's currently 10th in all of baseball in HRs and 17th in the NL in slugging. He's on pace for a 39 HR season. He's either going to outperform his contract, and opt out, or he's going to fall off and we'll be stuck paying him $9M next year. I wouldn't risk the latter happening with his stock as high as it should be right now.

They won't do it because they're technically a wildcard team right now, but we all know that's a mirage and with Jazz out for at least a month, that makes contending even tougher. The best long-term move for this franchise would be to sell high.

[Lee Stone]

Yes, trading Soler right now is an excellent idea. As little as a week ago, it seemed out of the question to think that anyone would take him. A deal would still require the Marlins to take some dead money player in return, but it would be less money.

[Namaste]

Trading players who are performing well now while we sit in the 3rd Wild Card spot is probably my least favorite take of 2023. That’s putting it as nicely as I could.

Yes, there are some clear warning signs of a mirage.

Here are some other things going on:

Sandy has been garbage. He will likely get better.
Edward Cabrera has been garbage
We just called Eury up
We just got Chargois back
Cooper is back as Jazz goes on IL
Jeab Segura is hitting the ball hard and often. Regression is coming

I’m ALL IN on being sellers at the deadline if we are out of the WC hunt. Doing it now? C’mon. This fan base hasn’t been through enough?

[rmc523]

Trading players who are performing well now while we sit in the 3rd Wild Card spot is probably my least favorite take of 2023. That’s putting it as nicely as I could.

Yes, there are some clear warning signs of a mirage.

Here are some other things going on:

Sandy has been garbage. He will likely get better.
Edward Cabrera has been garbage
We just called Eury up
We just got Chargois back
Cooper is back as Jazz goes on IL
Jeab Segura is hitting the ball hard and often. Regression is coming

I’m ALL IN on being sellers at the deadline if we are out of the WC hunt. Doing it now? C’mon. This fan base hasn’t been through enough?

Yeah, way too early to do that for me too.

If we fall out of it, sure...

[lou]

The player I'd explore trading ASAP is Soler. He's currently 10th in all of baseball in HRs and 17th in the NL in slugging. He's on pace for a 39 HR season. He's either going to outperform his contract, and opt out, or he's going to fall off and we'll be stuck paying him $9M next year. I wouldn't risk the latter happening with his stock as high as it should be right now.

They won't do it because they're technically a wildcard team right now, but we all know that's a mirage and with Jazz out for at least a month, that makes contending even tougher. The best long-term move for this franchise would be to sell high.

Yes.

I'm looking hard at Arizona and Pittsburgh here. They too are fringe contenders so if they are going to go for it, they should do it now versus mid-July. Get those extra two months.

Arizona demoted Alek Thomas (statcast solid, low babip, CF). Marlins can sit on him a year. Pirates have two top 50 prospect catchers. Both need young, controllably, play now pitching and Pittsburgh could use a veteran SS (Wendle) and Arizona a stick (Soler). Minnesota is also great as mentioned with Royce Lewis. Exactly the kind of buy-lows to do before they really land at the MLB level. Something like Thomas, Davis, and Lewis would be perfect to set up an offseason 1B/DH to bridge to Berry and 3B to bridge to Cappe. If it costs Rogers, Cabrera, and Garrett, with Soler, Floro, Wendle, and Scott, so be it. We will live with Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Cueto, Eder, and Meyer and a FA if need be.

But it'll never happen like you say.

[lou]

Trading players who are performing well now while we sit in the 3rd Wild Card spot is probably my least favorite take of 2023. That’s putting it as nicely as I could.

Yes, there are some clear warning signs of a mirage.

Here are some other things going on:

Sandy has been garbage. He will likely get better.
Edward Cabrera has been garbage
We just called Eury up
We just got Chargois back
Cooper is back as Jazz goes on IL
Jeab Segura is hitting the ball hard and often. Regression is coming

I’m ALL IN on being sellers at the deadline if we are out of the WC hunt. Doing it now? C’mon. This fan base hasn’t been through enough?

I think the fan base having been through enough is a reason to do it - who cares? I'd rather take a step back now to have steps forward later.

That being said, unless the deal is incredible I think you give them at least 3 more weeks. Maybe they surprise the hell out of us with being a contender with the worst run differential in the NL?

[lou]

Yes, trading Soler right now is an excellent idea. As little as a week ago, it seemed out of the question to think that anyone would take him. A deal would still require the Marlins to take some dead money player in return, but it would be less money.

With what he is doing, they'd easily get a FV45 guy and eat no money. Soler is CHEAP to the rest of baseball.

[Nick]

Trades aren't happening in May anyway. There is time to figure things out.

[lou]

Trades aren't happening in May anyway. There is time to figure things out.

Alternatively why not be the aggressor.

If we all agree trades must happen, let's figure out that Eder + RP - R. Lewis swap now. Similarly ranked prospects and juice them with Floro. Floro isn't making or breaking the Marlins here. Eder could be tremendous for them short and longterm. Maybe Garrett, Scott, and Soriano get A. Thomas and a prospect. Bet on the statcast/babip/pedigree with Thomas and maybe it's a second solid positional prospect.

Helps now, helps later, etc. etc.