July 2021 Game Thread

[Nick]

Gotta be encouraged by recent developments from Sanchez and Diaz.

[lou]

Gotta be encouraged by recent developments from Sanchez and Diaz.

Just need those 2 everyday starting bats and some 3rd platoon option guy to get to 1500+ better PA of new players.

I feel real confident all of Alfaro (as a backup), Aguilar, L. Diaz, Jazz, Rojas, Anderson, Sanchez, Cooper, and Berti (bench) are going to be pretty solid for who they are. Very confident in the pitching.

3 new guys, and 4 if we hate De La Cruz (which we really can't even if it's a ridiculous ridiculous BABIP. Maybe he averages it out but he's earned a look. He has a higher lefty split so that would be great if he can hit them a bit).

[Nick]

Just need those 2 everyday starting bats and some 3rd platoon option guy to get to 1500+ better PA of new players.

I feel real confident all of Alfaro (as a backup), Aguilar, L. Diaz, Jazz, Rojas, Anderson, Sanchez, Cooper, and Berti (bench) are going to be pretty solid for who they are. Very confident in the pitching.

3 new guys, and 4 if we hate De La Cruz (which we really can't even if it's a ridiculous ridiculous BABIP. Maybe he averages it out but he's earned a look. He has a higher lefty split so that would be great if he can hit them a bit).

One big question still needing answered is if the NL will have the DH next year. If we don't, what do we do with Aguilar and Cooper?

Regardless, I think you need 3 bats, CF, corner OF (Adam Duvall type signing) and catcher. De la Cruz will be an awesome 4th OF I think, but I don't see him as an everyday guy.

Maybe you go after one of the SS's if you can get them on a reasonable contract, and live with Cooper/De la Cruz manning LF, but either way I think it needs to be 3 significant bats.

[fish16]

jesus sanchez- good player

[lou]

One big question still needing answered is if the NL will have the DH next year. If we don't, what do we do with Aguilar and Cooper?

Regardless, I think you need 3 bats, CF, corner OF (Adam Duvall type signing) and catcher. De la Cruz will be an awesome 4th OF I think, but I don't see him as an everyday guy.

Maybe you go after one of the SS's if you can get them on a reasonable contract, and live with Cooper/De la Cruz manning LF, but either way I think it needs to be 3 significant bats.

Super luxury bench bats. Or you move one of them.

I think it's a veteran catcher, everyday longterm 2B/SS (maybe 3B), and every day longterm CF.

C - New, Alfaro
1B - L. Diaz
2B - Jazz, Berti
SS - New, Rojas
3B - Anderson
LF - Cooper
CF - New, De La Cruz
RF - Sanchez
DH - Aguilar

LF is a platoon where it's really Anderson 3 days a week (or Sanchez), Cooper 2, and De La Cruz 1.

1B is also a platoon where Cooper gets 1-2 starts per week to shield Lewin here and there and maybe Aguilar plays some.

Rojas can play 4 SS/3B and 1 2B per week. It's easy to get him 500+ PA with Anderson popping out the OF 3 days a week and Jazz/New SS needing an off day collectively 1-2 days a week.


Practically your idea is the best for 2022 - C and two outfielders - but longterm Rojas is gone after 22 so that investment needs to happen now in the infield imo.

If we want to tinker with the above, it's trading Aguilar/Cooper and bringing in another more true OF. But I don't think you need to do that as Bleday/Burdick/etc. are on the horizon.

[lou]

The more I think about this, I like Lee's idea (we'll give it to him as he first mentioned) for Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly (or Varsho).

Arizona is terrible and they are in a worse situation than where the Marlins were with Yelich as those guys are controlled for 3 years (not 5), and when they might be good they'll be on the way out. They'd probably love an all prospect trade.

I'd try something like this, which is a 7/3, 8/3 kind of trade.

K. Marte (3/$30), C. Kelly (3 arb, approx 3/$10-12), and D. Peralta (1/$7.5)
for
(1) M. Meyer, (2) Bleday/Sanchez, (3) Eury/Fulton/Eder, (4) Nunez/Morisette/Lewis/Jerar maybe Burdick/Misner/Scott, (5) Z. Pop or any right handed "non SP" reliever not named Bender or Floro, (6) Neidert/Poteet/Holloway/Some other second/third level arm that could turn into backend guy or solid reliever. Maybe even Nicolas, etc., and (7) Garret Cooper (2 arb, approx. 2/$5-7). If they want Harrison/Brinson/I. Diaz/VVM and other rejects for a change of scenery and hope for the best, lop it in.

Arizona gets two major SP prospects, a major OF prospect (I know some may scoff at Sanchez, but you do it for Ketel and an ascending catcher and you trust the other and Burdick/Misner/Scott/Others to man corners longterm), 2 more projectable and/or useful arms, and maybe a swing for the fences upside guy if they want. The inclusion of Peralta/Cooper is basically a salary deflection incentive for them as Cooper will save them $5m for similar PA (as well as he has another year of control and 3 years younger. Could be a good flip at the deadline for them if he can stay healthy). Peralta positionally fits a bit better for the Marlins so eating some payroll and getting a more pure OF is good.

I'll say they take Bleday, Eury, and Lewis from that list, and this is what the marlins have in 2022:

C - Kelly, Alfaro
1B/DH - Aguilar, Diaz
2B - Ketel, Berti
SS - Jazz, Rojas
3B - Anderson
LF - D. Peralta
CF - ________, De La Cruz
RF - Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Hernandez
RP - Bender, Floro, Sixto, Cabrera, Thompson, Bass
LP - Bleier, Okert

This is 25 players for roughly $60 million - and at least a quarter of this (Aguilar, Alfaro, Bleier, Berti) could be DFA'd and that could be used elsewhere, and another close to a quarter of this (Peralta, Bass, Hernandez) isn't that important and could probably shed payroll further. This team is CHEAP. Ketel pops out into the OF a lot to create playing time for Rojas (and some DH time), and Anderson also plays some 1B/OF for the same reason. Peralta is a 350+ PA player or so.

Top prospects after this are Watson, top 5-6 pick 2022 draft, Salas, Fulton, Burdick, Mack, Eder, Misner, Morisette, Cappe, 2nd rounder 2022, Scott, etc. Probably a middle farm as they have a lot of FV40/45 hopes and prayers after this and someone else may turn out to be pretty good, but certainly the trade and Sixto/Cabrera/Bleday/Sanchez graduating really hurts the ranking.

In 2023, it moves to this:

C - Kelly, Alfaro
1B/DH - Diaz, ________
2B - Ketel, Devers/Nunez
SS - Jazz, __________
3B - Anderson
LF - Burdick/Misner/Scott/De La Cruz
CF - ________, Misner/Scott
RF - Sanchez/Bleday

SP - Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Sixto/Cabrera, Luzardo
RP - Bender, Floro, Sixto/Cabrera, Hernandez, Thompson, ________
LP - _______, _______

That is probably also $60 million, and maybe close to $10m of this (Alfaro, Hernandez, Floro) they could likely live without very quickly. Top prospects after this are Watson, top 5-6 pick 2022 draft, 1st rounder 2023, Salas, Fulton, Mack, Eder, Morisette, Cappe, 2nd rounder 2022 and 23, etc. 2022 and 2023 are a year of no graduates besides OF prospects pretty much so the farm start looks pretty loaded again summer 2023, and ideally another really good INT signing puts it over the top.


S. Marte is basically a perfect guy to sign 3/$60 this offseason, and really hit the pavement looking for cheap club controlled backup IF, corner OF, and lefty relievers to build depth longterm.

Hopefully something like this happens.

[Lee Stone]

You can play around with the particular names involved, but the point here is that the Marlins set up as an ideal trade partner with Arizona. Marte and Kelly would change the entire dynamic.

[lou]

You can play around with the particular names involved, but the point here is that the Marlins set up as an ideal trade partner with Arizona. Marte and Kelly would change the entire dynamic.

For sure. I do think a Peralta/Cooper swap is a nice 3rd piece to Marte + catcher as that saves them a lot of money and eliminates the "triple 1B" personnel issue marlins currently have.

I think the real "battle" here is who are the 2nd and 3rd players. I can see them demanding Sixto/Cabrera/Watson versus Bleday/Sanchez, but hopefully upgraded 3rd/4th players and eating Peralta money levels that off. They'll be hard pressed to get someone as good as Meyer I imagine.

[Nick]

I can dig it, but I think Ketel Marte makes more sense in CF for us. Jazz has struggled defensively this year. I'd feel more comfortable keeping him at 2nd, I'm not sure he's suited to be an every day SS.

[Nick]

I also think you gotta spend $10-14 million on 2 quality relievers, guys that can finish games for you. Get Bass out of there, if you have to start one of Luzardo/Sixto/Cabrera at AAA then do that, it's a good problem to have, and you can be more careful with them at AAA if that's what you feel is necessary.

[lou]

I can dig it, but I think Ketel Marte makes more sense in CF for us. Jazz has struggled defensively this year. I'd feel more comfortable keeping him at 2nd, I'm not sure he's suited to be an every day SS.

Sure let them fall how they fall.

I didn't realize how insanely bad Jazz's SS defensive metrics are (like comical worse than Adam Dunn level). Maybe it is time to consider him 2B only. I do think that's a blip though and he'll be fine defensively.

You could see a lot of things like Jazz-Rojas-Ketel (3B)-Anderson (RF) or Ketel anywhere in the OF. Like you say below, a good problem to have. They still definitely need a BIG bat added to this.

I also think you gotta spend $10-14 million on 2 quality relievers, guys that can finish games for you. Get Bass out of there, if you have to start one of Luzardo/Sixto/Cabrera at AAA then do that, it's a good problem to have, and you can be more careful with them at AAA if that's what you feel is necessary.

I'm not sure I can fully agree here though. For me, they need to be spending all major money on 1500+ plate appearances, not 100 innings. If budget is unlimited or very high, or they do multiple pitcher trades for CC options, sure.

I think you put your best 13 arms in the bigs (only exception 4 of them must be lefties) and let their innings fall how they fall. Let all the "starters" destroy people in the bullpen. Those guys will all get their innings, and as discussed before, the Marlins probably shouldn't be having Sixto/Cabrera/Hernandez/Thompson throwing more than 120ish next year at all levels based on their 2021 injuries/workloads.

I honestly really love this - and this is with Sixto/Cabrera being slowly built up over the season for larger innings totals and those two are counted on to get to around 120+ innings total for the season.

SP - Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Hernandez
RP - Bender, Floro, Sixto, Cabrera, Thompson, Bass
LP - Bleier, Okert

First call ups - Poteet, Neidert, Pop, Holloway, etc.

If you do anything, it's signing someone better than Okert or Bleier (lefties!!!!!!) and Bass getting beat out by someone like Pop or Holloway in Spring training and you eat the Bass money. I do think Bass would be an above average "last reliever" out of the pen at minimum and whether they keep him or not, does nothing for the season outlook.

Maybe the idea is trading Meyer/gang for something like that Ketel trade, and also trading Pablo for another awesome young SS/3B/CF bat. Let's say Bass and Bleier go with Pablo too to a contender to clear payroll for the Marlins, and then all of a sudden you're around $50m in 2022 payroll, can internally move Pop into Bass' spot, and how much do you want to spend on two more staff arms, presumably both relievers as they'll let Thompson/Sixto/Cabrera open in the rotation and monitor all their innings appropriately.

The options of what they can do are really exciting with the low payroll and arm surplus. I really hope they don't blow it or more likely, cheap out.

[Nick]

I don't understand how you could possibly be ok with Floro, Bender and Bleier being the late inning arms in a bullpen and also expect to compete for a playoff spot.

[lou]

I don't understand how you could possibly be ok with Floro, Bender and Bleier being the late inning arms in a bullpen and also expect to compete for a playoff spot.

RP WAR

Floro 17th best reliever
Bleier 44
Bender 49

And if your other relievers are:

Thompson (if we turn his 67 innings into reliever only, he's also mid 30s overall in reliever WAR. Basically, a very above average reliever even if he ticks down)
Sixto/Hernandez
Cabrera/Luzardo

That's a really great 1-6, and adding another veteran/excellent young lefty to the mix would be outstanding if they can do it.

Marlins team bullpen WAR for 2021 is 7th best in baseball. Granted, some of this is Cimber, Curtiss, and Detweiler (he only got shelled when he "started") who all were globally speaking, pretty good out of the pen, but I'd take the bet Thompson/Sixto/Cabrera/Hernandez/Luzardo can cover those innings and much much more.

It's a playoff staff and bullpen for sure if healthy. If we want to predict reliever volatility, that's always a thing, but I'm not sure they can do much better than this on paper. The only luxury missing is not having a Pressly/Gallegos/Hader level arm, and they can't sign that guy. They had one, but they traded him for Jesus Sanchez and I'd do that again.

Assuming they keep all the major league arms, that's 8 guys above, add Sandy, Rogers, and Pablo, and there are 2 spots left. The absolute best I imagine them doing is trading Bass (attaching someone to him, like Holloway to clear salary in a dump and someone takes it for the prospect, etc.) and then keeping Pop as the last right hander who is pretty alright. Then, how about signing Aaron Loup to a 2 year deal. He has a 1.5 WAR(!) this year, and averages .7 WAR per 60 innings for his career. He's perfect and they can hammer finding lefties in the minors for a year.

[Nick]

You’ll never convince me Floro is the 17th best reliever in the league. He’s a quality middle reliever, that’s it. You bring in Kenley Jansen, you bring in Aaron Loup. You don’t let Mattingly attempt to manipulate Cabrera and Sixto’s inning count in the bullpen, I see that as a recipe for disaster. Either they’ll be ineffective out of the pen or they’ll be misused and end up injured again.

Just stop being cheap. You can bring those guys in for less than $15 mil, it’s not going to break the bank.

[Lee Stone]

A vote of no confidence in Floro from me. He's no Alex Vesia.