July 2021 Game Thread

[fish16]

for the season now brinson is at .9 WAR according to fangraphs and since 5/1 he has 100 ab's hitting .320, .988 OPS, WRC+ of 165, and a 4.7% bb rate which continues to go up. He's a piece if he can keep this up to end the year which at this point, while he obviously wont stay this hot, i expect him to. This is not lucky bloop hits and inflated numbers, this has been legit production.

[fish16]

dont know how jesus sanchez has missed a month with covid and it has barely been discussed but he should be back this weekend id assume. Cant wait to see him in the lineup everyday. We're not trying to win at this point so I just want the pitchers like Sandy to finish strong and stay healthy, get pablo back and hopefully establish some value, and hope rogers gets back soon from the family issue and even if he isn't dominant at least build up that innings limit so next year they can push him a little more. Once Jazz gets back id make the lineup Rojas, Jazz, Sanchez, Brinson, Anderson, Aguilar, De La Cruz/Isan somehow moving guys around to split at bats, and then Jackson. Id also like to see nick fortes up here soon. Not comparing him to JT but you never know when a guy breaks out. JT struggled for a few years in the minors after a good first year and then in his 4th year broke out in the minors and Salty sucked so he came up and took off. If the alternative is Sandy Leon and Alfaro getting ab's lets play the young kids, evaluate them and most likely move up in the draft anyways, and just continue churning the roster to try and find keepers.

[lou]

for the season now brinson is at .9 WAR according to fangraphs and since 5/1 he has 100 ab's hitting .320, .988 OPS, WRC+ of 165, and a 4.7% bb rate which continues to go up. He's a piece if he can keep this up to end the year which at this point, while he obviously wont stay this hot, i expect him to. This is not lucky bloop hits and inflated numbers, this has been legit production.

.410 BABIP since May 1st. Four Hundred Ten.

Still, if you slash 80 (eighty(!)) average points off of that which starts moving that to an acceptable overachieving BABIP scenario, he is hitting minimum .240/.280/.500 (.780) right now based on May 1 slugging numbers. Which is he has turned himself into an Adam Duvall type player. THAT would be a major step forward for him, let alone if something else has clicked and this hot streak is more real then that BABIP adjusted slash. Hopefully it is (especially ascending walks which is key).

Also let's talk splits. 2020 he had a .795 OPS. vs LHP (.492 RHP oomph), 2021, we have a .944 LHP / .777 RHP split. Sample sizes are obviously incredibly low, but you see the trend that may be developing here. In fact, Brinson's career with all the suckitude is .716 LHP / .532 RHP. I am shocked by this career lefty split (271 PA). He's not a bad platoon option if he's playing above average defense (which he has been lately).

Let's see what happens. I need that May 1st BABIP to radically drop before we start thinking he is anything more than a bench OF.

[fish16]

And not to continue to beat the drum on brinson, but, and this is a huge but, but if he does prove to be for real and a starter moving forward, that even strengthens our OF position long term and can allow us to use not only the pitching depth for a bat but also maybe allows us to flip one of the OF bats for a C or infielder. Moving forward we have Sanchez, Burdick, Brinson, Bleday, Conine as 5 guys in 4 spots (if you include the DH). Plus Kameron misner a year after them who has shown marked improvement recently and might be the best pure CF we have in the organization as well as a different kind of player than the rest of those guys as more speed and less power oriented. Id use the pitching depth first and allow the OF depth to play out before doing that, but it does give us more flexibility moving forward. The biggest question is who the CF becomes. Seems like its Burdick or Misner long term.

Another option is moving Conine to 1b potentially to increase his flexibility and give us backup options if Lewin doesn't translate to the major league level.


I'd like to see us move Pablo for a C like Campusano plus a couple younger fliers, and then identify 1 big time free agent who they think fits the best and just go for it. I think 1 big time free agent (my preference is bryant) , a top MLB ready catching prospect like Campusano, and 1 legitimate closer like Melancon plus a few other controllable bullpen arms like they have had success finding and we are a playoff team next year with health.

C- Campusano
1b- Lewin
2b- Jazz
SS- Rojas
3b- Anderson
LF- Bryant
CF- Brinson
RF- Sanchez
DH- Aguilar
with Bleday, Burdick, and Conine waiting in the wings if there are any struggles or injuries.
Sandy, Sixto, Rogers, Meyer, Cabrera, Thompson, Elieser, Eder

With reasonable improvement and consistency from guys like Jazz and Sanchez and if the brinson thing turns out to be forreal, that's a force. Bryant to me is just such a no brainer because his ability to play corner outfield, 3b, and 1b will allow us a ton of flexibility to work around how quickly the young bats in the upper minors end up developing (or not developing). He gives big time insurance for Lewin, Sanchez, Brinson, and the 3 AA OF's.

I know it seems with the struggles this year that the team is so far away from contention, but with the right big time move and much better injury luck next year, it's not that far away. The front office and ownership needs to spend the money though now. IF they don't they will remain in the group of teams that have young players but not enough. This offseason, because of how great of a job they have done building the development pipeline and young pitching, is a make or break moment for the next 5 years of the franchise.

[fish16]

.410 BABIP since May 1st. Four Hundred Ten.

Still, if you slash 80 (eighty(!)) average points off of that which starts moving that to an acceptable overachieving BABIP scenario, he is hitting minimum .240/.280/.500 (.780) right now based on May 1 slugging numbers. Which is he has turned himself into an Adam Duvall type player. THAT would be a major step forward for him, let alone if something else has clicked and this hot streak is more real then that BABIP adjusted slash. Hopefully it is (especially ascending walks which is key).

Also let's talk splits. 2020 he had a .795 OPS. vs LHP (.492 RHP oomph), 2021, we have a .944 LHP / .777 RHP split. Sample sizes are obviously incredibly low, but you see the trend that may be developing here. In fact, Brinson's career with all the suckitude is .716 LHP / .532 RHP. I am shocked by this career lefty split (271 PA). He's not a bad platoon option if he's playing above average defense (which he has been lately).

Let's see what happens. I need that May 1st BABIP to radically drop before we start thinking he is anything more than a bench OF.

absolutely agree. But even if he is a guy who just crushes lefties he's made himself from a disaster to a legitimately useful piece moving forward. the lefty thing has me thinking that he may become even more important moving forward considering Jesus Sanchez, Bleday, and Conine are all lefties, as is Lewin and Jazz. Obviously he doesn't play 1b or middle infield but given the glut of lefty hitting prospects we have that ability to mash lefties can come in huge as those guys make their adjustments to the big league level when they do get up here.

[fish16]

If they go the route of trading pitching depth for the few hitters they need and not spending big on a few guys, they fucking better invest that into a few legitimate back end bullpen arms on 1-2 year deals. You can have success finding bullpen arms for cheap but when you ask them to be high leverage late inning guys instead of good middle options you will run into issues that we ran into this year where you're blowing games that are huge to be able to close out. Give me Brad Hand, Mark Melancon, and a flier on a battle tested guy like a Joakim Soria. If you combine smart trades for controlled bullpen arms with actually spending 10-15 million on 2-3 bullpen arms you truly get a dominant pitching staff.

[lou]

And not to continue to beat the drum on brinson, but, and this is a huge but, but if he does prove to be for real and a starter moving forward, that even strengthens our OF position long term and can allow us to use not only the pitching depth for a bat but also maybe allows us to flip one of the OF bats for a C or infielder. Moving forward we have Sanchez, Burdick, Brinson, Bleday, Conine as 5 guys in 4 spots (if you include the DH). Plus Kameron misner a year after them who has shown marked improvement recently and might be the best pure CF we have in the organization as well as a different kind of player than the rest of those guys as more speed and less power oriented. Id use the pitching depth first and allow the OF depth to play out before doing that, but it does give us more flexibility moving forward. The biggest question is who the CF becomes. Seems like its Burdick or Misner long term.

Another option is moving Conine to 1b potentially to increase his flexibility and give us backup options if Lewin doesn't translate to the major league level.


I'd like to see us move Pablo for a C like Campusano plus a couple younger fliers, and then identify 1 big time free agent who they think fits the best and just go for it. I think 1 big time free agent (my preference is bryant) , a top MLB ready catching prospect like Campusano, and 1 legitimate closer like Melancon plus a few other controllable bullpen arms like they have had success finding and we are a playoff team next year with health.

C- Campusano
1b- Lewin
2b- Jazz
SS- Rojas
3b- Anderson
LF- Bryant
CF- Brinson
RF- Sanchez
DH- Aguilar
with Bleday, Burdick, and Conine waiting in the wings if there are any struggles or injuries.
Sandy, Sixto, Rogers, Meyer, Cabrera, Thompson, Elieser, Eder

With reasonable improvement and consistency from guys like Jazz and Sanchez and if the brinson thing turns out to be forreal, that's a force. Bryant to me is just such a no brainer because his ability to play corner outfield, 3b, and 1b will allow us a ton of flexibility to work around how quickly the young bats in the upper minors end up developing (or not developing). He gives big time insurance for Lewin, Sanchez, Brinson, and the 3 AA OF's.

I know it seems with the struggles this year that the team is so far away from contention, but with the right big time move and much better injury luck next year, it's not that far away. The front office and ownership needs to spend the money though now. IF they don't they will remain in the group of teams that have young players but not enough. This offseason, because of how great of a job they have done building the development pipeline and young pitching, is a make or break moment for the next 5 years of the franchise.

If they are going to spend big money on a bat, it better be C, 2B/SS (opposite jazz), or CF. It's absolutely an up the middle player and not Bryant. Trade Pablo/Sandy for a second one of them, AND trade Hernandez (hits arb) and one of the minor league arms for a third one.

Basically, this is a massive 2B/SS in free agency (sorry Isan), Pablo/Sandy for an insane CF prospect (it's unlikely someone trades an elite catcher), kick Brinson to a corner and let him duke it out there with Sanchez and see if they can hold off Bleday and gang, and then move Hernandez/secondary arms for likely a veteran catcher (Tucker Barnhardt). Tucker is a perfect platoon option for a lefty killer like A. Jackson (see MiLB stats), and Reds can use pitching. They have Stephenson to take over C who looks awesome. It's a realistic move.

Offense looks good pretty good on paper:

C - Barnhart / Jackson
1B - Aguilar, Lewin
2B - Jazz, Berti
SS - "Stud free agent", Rojas
3B - Anderson
LF - Sanchez
CF - "Stud prospect for Pablo"
RF - Brinson, Cooper

Or, keep Sandy and Pablo and just sign 2 big free agents and stop being cheap. They have the payroll and THAT is an exciting team.

[fish16]

.410 BABIP since May 1st. Four Hundred Ten.

Still, if you slash 80 (eighty(!)) average points off of that which starts moving that to an acceptable overachieving BABIP scenario, he is hitting minimum .240/.280/.500 (.780) right now based on May 1 slugging numbers. Which is he has turned himself into an Adam Duvall type player. THAT would be a major step forward for him, let alone if something else has clicked and this hot streak is more real then that BABIP adjusted slash. Hopefully it is (especially ascending walks which is key).

Also let's talk splits. 2020 he had a .795 OPS. vs LHP (.492 RHP oomph), 2021, we have a .944 LHP / .777 RHP split. Sample sizes are obviously incredibly low, but you see the trend that may be developing here. In fact, Brinson's career with all the suckitude is .716 LHP / .532 RHP. I am shocked by this career lefty split (271 PA). He's not a bad platoon option if he's playing above average defense (which he has been lately).

Let's see what happens. I need that May 1st BABIP to radically drop before we start thinking he is anything more than a bench OF.

Not to jump the shark on this completely, but given James Rowson's presence a name that really intrigues me as a comparison to the start of brinson's career is Byron Buxton. He wasn't nearly as bad as brinson was but he had 4 fairly mediocre years as a hitter before rowson came in and helped him turn into a superstar level talent when he's not running full speed into walls and hurting himself. If rowson can turn around and help brinson turn the corner similarly i don't know how you don't do everything possible to keep him around, including eating money on the stupid mattingyl contract and making him manager for next year. Or at the very least giving him some sort of major promotion into a front office/coach hybrid role where he specializes in our young hitters.

[lou]

If they go the route of trading pitching depth for the few hitters they need and not spending big on a few guys, they fucking better invest that into a few legitimate back end bullpen arms on 1-2 year deals. You can have success finding bullpen arms for cheap but when you ask them to be high leverage late inning guys instead of good middle options you will run into issues that we ran into this year where you're blowing games that are huge to be able to close out. Give me Brad Hand, Mark Melancon, and a flier on a battle tested guy like a Joakim Soria. If you combine smart trades for controlled bullpen arms with actually spending 10-15 million on 2-3 bullpen arms you truly get a dominant pitching staff.

If their plan is trading high end arms for high end hitting prospects, and then signing expensive relievers, kill me

[fish16]

If they are going to spend big money on a bat, it better be C, 2B/SS (opposite jazz), or CF. It's absolutely an up the middle player and not Bryant. Trade Pablo/Sandy for a second one of them, AND trade Hernandez (hits arb) and one of the minor league arms for a third one.

Basically, this is a massive 2B/SS in free agency (sorry Isan), Pablo/Sandy for an insane CF prospect (it's unlikely someone trades an elite catcher), kick Brinson to a corner and let him duke it out there with Sanchez and see if they can hold off Bleday and gang, and then move Hernandez/secondary arms for likely a veteran catcher (Tucker Barnhardt). Tucker is a perfect platoon option for a lefty killer like A. Jackson (see MiLB stats), and Reds can use pitching. They have Stephenson to take over C who looks awesome. It's a realistic move.

Offense looks good pretty good on paper:

C - Barnhart / Jackson
1B - Aguilar, Lewin
2B - Jazz, Berti
SS - "Stud free agent", Rojas
3B - Anderson
LF - Sanchez
CF - "Stud prospect for Pablo"
RF - Brinson, Cooper

Or, keep Sandy and Pablo and just sign 2 big free agents and stop being cheap. They have the payroll and THAT is an exciting team.

My only concern with a SS in free agency is how many we have in the wings, although they are all a few years off so that's not a major thing to worry about right now. My thought process as far as the one big signing I think we all agree we need is finding the best possible big time free agent that will both age well and fits several potential holes and doesn't block guys who might come up and produce for cheaper during the length of the contract. If its a 2-3 year deal for a big time SS absolutely, but I worry about paying a guy like Correa for 6-7 years who might not age well towards the end of the deal and who we might have young cost controlled options instead of by the middle of the contract. At SS we really have a ton of depth but it is very very young in Watson, Cappe, Salas, Lewis, Nunez, etc. Id give Rojas and his team leadership and consistency 1 more year at SS and then reevaluate where we are at the position after next year.

Also, while barnhart is an improvement I really would hate if he is the guy. I think they need a legitimate impact bat and he strikes me as another in a long list of C's we have had that would come here and regress, particularly going from his mediocre production in that ballpark to ours. If it is at all available I want them to identify the one prospect that they view is ready and do what it takes to get him here under contract and productive for 6 years. Barnhart to me is just such a "kick the can down the road" another year move and I really would be concerned that his low .700's/high .600 OPS would turn to low to mid .600's OPS in our ballpark very quickly.

[fish16]

If their plan is trading high end arms for high end hitting prospects, and then signing expensive relievers, kill me

It depends on the high end hitting prospects for me and I would still want at least 1 fairly big signing with the bat. I don't like Brandon marsh. I want a guy with at least some success in the majors. I also would be very concerned as to which depth arms they end up dealing. It concerns me that Meyer was the guy they were dangling instead of eder. I think meyer is going to be an absolute stud and i'd rather deal from Eder or even Fulton.

[Nick]

What do we think Corey Seager gets in free agency? A Jazz-Seager up the middle with Rojas playing a lot against lefties and filling in for injuries would be pretty sweet. Would something like 5 years/ $100 million get it done?

[rmc523]

My only concern with a SS in free agency is how many we have in the wings, although they are all a few years off so that's not a major thing to worry about right now. My thought process as far as the one big signing I think we all agree we need is finding the best possible big time free agent that will both age well and fits several potential holes and doesn't block guys who might come up and produce for cheaper during the length of the contract. If its a 2-3 year deal for a big time SS absolutely, but I worry about paying a guy like Correa for 6-7 years who might not age well towards the end of the deal and who we might have young cost controlled options instead of by the middle of the contract. At SS we really have a ton of depth but it is very very young in Watson, Cappe, Salas, Lewis, Nunez, etc. Id give Rojas and his team leadership and consistency 1 more year at SS and then reevaluate where we are at the position after next year.

Also, while barnhart is an improvement I really would hate if he is the guy. I think they need a legitimate impact bat and he strikes me as another in a long list of C's we have had that would come here and regress, particularly going from his mediocre production in that ballpark to ours. If it is at all available I want them to identify the one prospect that they view is ready and do what it takes to get him here under contract and productive for 6 years. Barnhart to me is just such a "kick the can down the road" another year move and I really would be concerned that his low .700's/high .600 OPS would turn to low to mid .600's OPS in our ballpark very quickly.

I think you worry about the depth (guys coming up) later. Also with the DH, you can shift guys around a few years down the road.

This team needs a big bat and to show people they actually mean business and not just "same old, same old" that we've seen thus far spending wise (I'm talking purely ML roster spending, not the draft, international FA, etc which has obviously been better). And I'm not saying throw a Brinks truck at "random player A" just to spend - rather targeted, appropriate spending like you said, but a big signing - one which isn't backloaded too.

[lou]

My only concern with a SS in free agency is how many we have in the wings, although they are all a few years off so that's not a major thing to worry about right now. My thought process as far as the one big signing I think we all agree we need is finding the best possible big time free agent that will both age well and fits several potential holes and doesn't block guys who might come up and produce for cheaper during the length of the contract. If its a 2-3 year deal for a big time SS absolutely, but I worry about paying a guy like Correa for 6-7 years who might not age well towards the end of the deal and who we might have young cost controlled options instead of by the middle of the contract. At SS we really have a ton of depth but it is very very young in Watson, Cappe, Salas, Lewis, Nunez, etc. Id give Rojas and his team leadership and consistency 1 more year at SS and then reevaluate where we are at the position after next year.

Also, while barnhart is an improvement I really would hate if he is the guy. I think they need a legitimate impact bat and he strikes me as another in a long list of C's we have had that would come here and regress, particularly going from his mediocre production in that ballpark to ours. If it is at all available I want them to identify the one prospect that they view is ready and do what it takes to get him here under contract and productive for 6 years. Barnhart to me is just such a "kick the can down the road" another year move and I really would be concerned that his low .700's/high .600 OPS would turn to low to mid .600's OPS in our ballpark very quickly.

Yes the bold is right. Who cares? If Jazz turns out to be awesome, and they sign a Correa/Seager, and Wilson stays at SS in 3-4 years, decisions can be made then. Marlins have this group of pitchers right now. There is no time to waste. They are developed. Sink or swim. This is radically changing the thought process from BUILD to CONTEND RIGHT NOW. The build is over. Record this year means nothing, they have the pieces to do it. Worry about later, later.

For me, they shouldn't sign a major free agent that is a 1B/corner OF or right handed pitcher. They have real upper level/MLB depth there for those to work themselves out so that's the asterisk there. It's C, 2B/SS, and CF where they really need longterm options.

You might be able to convince me about Bryant if he is going to play 3B (no organizational depth after Anderson). Anderson can play some RF, 1B (maybe he ends up there and Lewin sucks?), and maybe even some 2B and CF himself. Turn him into Chris Taylor??? That would be an interesting thing to do, but a lot more moving parts.

[lou]

I think you worry about the depth (guys coming up) later. Also with the DH, you can shift guys around a few years down the road.

This team needs a big bat and to show people they actually mean business and not just "same old, same old" that we've seen thus far spending wise (I'm talking purely ML roster spending, not the draft, international FA, etc which has obviously been better). And I'm not saying throw a Brinks truck at "random player A" just to spend - rather targeted, appropriate spending like you said, but a big signing - one which isn't backloaded too.

Yes, totally. And honestly, it should be FRONT LOADED with how cheap the payroll is next year or two before guys like Rogers, Sixto, and Jazz get to arbitration.

Correa is perfect for me. I know there are strong opinions on him, but he is "brinks trunk" level for me. A 10 year deal is ages 27-36 which isn't that bad at all like the Pujols/Miggy disasters. It's his pure prime years. He is on a 5 WAR pace this year. He's Puerto Rican for the market. He's perfect to shift to 3B if someone like Wilson does work out, or DH last years of deal. I'm not sure what the contract is, but I think he wants $300. I say give it to him (or something close, maybe it's $250-275 range), trade Pablo/Sandy and other pitchers for 2 club controller youngsters, front load the hell out of it (3/$120 then 7/$150-180+deferring some of that sort of thing). It's literally young only contract for a few seasons, absent arbitration extensions.

I can do this permutation where payroll is under $90 million for 22/23, and not much more in 24. If you're gonna win, you need a centerpiece player. I say fuck it. You can always trade them, like you did with Stanton, if things implode in 4-5 years.

Do it. I agree - big splash.