July 2021 Game Thread

[Maddawg]

Seems like they're actively trying to go for a higher draft pick at this point.

That's what I'm seeing too...they've moved up to # 4. They must have their eye on someone specific. Because other than that, this is disastrous for the franchise long-term. This just destroys any goodwill you started to build with the community. I'm starting to wonder if they are getting ready to possibly sell the team, and trying to make it look good with lots of prospects & no long-term contracts. Maybe they understand they don't have the cash to be owners or have decided to cut bait ? Next year is Jeter's last contract year....

It's rather confusing otherwise.

[Maddawg]

Watching the highlights of the game last night. We used Morimando in a one run game in the 8th? Really seems like they’re self-sabotaging at this point.

yep....and what effect do you think happens with the pitching staff when they see that ? To me I think they are setting the team up to be fiscally attractive to a new buyer. No long-term contracts, & loaded with prospects....and they try to sell for somewhere around $1.7 to 2 billion...of course all speculation.

[fish16]

it is absolutely a small sample but its not simply one hot streak. He's been good for 4 months in the playing time he's gotten. In May he had a .296 avg and .889 OPS in the limited at bats he got. June he got sent down and only had 10 ab's off the bench, July he had a .905 OPS in the 22 ab's, and august its 1.067 OPS in the 33 ab's. It is obviously small sample sizes and the rest of the year will tell the whole story, but it's not one hot streak, it's been going on 4 months of playing well when he has been given playing time. In 100 ab's since may he is hitting .304, OPS of 916, and a wrc+ of 147 which is a very good hitter. For the year he has a solid .772 OPS, hitting .268, grading out really well on defense and having a WAR of .5 according to fangraphs.

It is obviously a very small sample and he needs to prove it the last 2 months, but there is no question he has looked like a different, competent player for months now with the bat in his hands. And he's good defensively.

[fish16]

and funny enough christian yelich has been bad for 2 years in a row with the bat and seems to have long term lower back issues that keep creeping up and just signed an enormous extension. That trade is still a disaster though.

[Nick]

yep....and what effect do you think happens with the pitching staff when they see that ? To me I think they are setting the team up to be fiscally attractive to a new buyer. No long-term contracts, & loaded with prospects....and they try to sell for somewhere around $1.7 to 2 billion...of course all speculation.

No.

[fish16]

what theyre clearly doing is trying to throw shit at the wall in the bullpen and see what sticks. they obviously don't give a shit about the rest of the year, they are trying to find bullpen pieces. That's fine with me, its the rotation that makes no sense right now but it's also been exacerbated by sandy having the family issue, rogers now having a family emergency, and Pablo being out. I don't understand why they don't have neidert up here at least and at this point cabrera not being up here and given an opportunity seems like a stupid choice. Enough with the openers. Keep Garrett and Neidert up here if the choice is between them and a bullpen game.

[fish16]

and if the thought is to evaluate some bullpen arms, get guzman up here as well as tommy eveld from AAA and see what some of the AA bullpen arms have like Colton hock. guy was a 4th round pick converted to a reliever and has been good this year. Better than guys like morimando who werent even good in the minors this year. Guenther i want to see more of since he's a lefty and he was phenomenal out of the bullpen in the minors this year.

[lou]

What are we protecting Neidert from? If you made a pecking order of our arms that have made it at least to AA, he'd be maybe 11th at best. This year will be his best and maybe only shot of establishing himself on the roster or at least showing himself off to other teams that may want to trade for him.

From getting drilled? So if he does have trade value, there is one less ding on it?

Honestly, I think Neidert (and Thompson, and Poteet, and Garrett, and Holloway) are exactly the guys not to trade. They have options next year, have shown some flashes, and are the perfect 6-7-8 starters, or 11-12-13th bullpen long reliever arms. Those are the kind of guys that can be immensely valuable to a team being able to cover innings if the main guys get hurt - at club controlled prices with some real upside. None of them is getting a big return by themselves (and the Marlins only need BIG hitting returns right now, not whatever De La Cruz and Henry guys to add next year. They have enough of those), so they will always be more valuable for the Marlins. Maybe something clicks for any of them and they turn into a solid # 4 SP, or a plus bullpen arm? I'm holding all of them for a year.

They need them too. They just shot out a few good relievers - Curtiss, Cimber, etc. - so there is an internal plan to replace them as they were deemed expendable. I'm imagining them needing 20+ MLB arms next year to get through the season with injuries and performance issues. There aren't going to be many material innings past going 20 deep.

Sandy/Pablo*, Rogers, Sixto, Cabrea, Luzardo (main 5 SP)
Bender, Floro, Bass, Bleier, TBD New Lefty pen arm I am confident they will acquire (main 5 RP arms)
Thompson, Poteet, Neidert, Garrett, Campbell, Holloway, Pop, Castano, Guzman (9 swing arms for backup starters, and back of the pen)
Meyer, Eder (mid season call-ups)

*I am expecting Sandy/Pablo and Hernandez to be traded to save $5m and get 2 bats with them

This looks really good to me (and even better if I am wrong on what arms get traded), and circling back, I think Neidert is pretty important here given the injury problems with Sixto, Cabrera, Luzardo, maybe Lopez and Hernandez do stick around, and even guys like Poteet got hurt. You can easily see him throwing real innings here as he's 1 injury away and being better than Thompson, Poteet, and Garrett at getting into the rotation.

Anyways. I do agree, let's call it maybe 11th, but I kick that can to 2022 offseason. They need throw some of those guys in the pen and see what happens.

[lou]

That's what I'm seeing too...they've moved up to # 4. They must have their eye on someone specific. Because other than that, this is disastrous for the franchise long-term. This just destroys any goodwill you started to build with the community. I'm starting to wonder if they are getting ready to possibly sell the team, and trying to make it look good with lots of prospects & no long-term contracts. Maybe they understand they don't have the cash to be owners or have decided to cut bait ? Next year is Jeter's last contract year....

It's rather confusing otherwise.

Goodwill? What goodwill? We've been saying they are destroying the fan base for 15 years. At what point does it not matter anymore? This flows back to - they need 1500 vastly upgraded PA next year. Who are these 3-4 bats they bring in, and what pitcher(s) are sacrificed to do it? That will tell us all we need to know. If they don't go for it with this pitching depth and a top 5 farm, they don't give a shit.

Also, they aren't selling the team. They are working in fringe players to see who the last 3-4 guys they protect on the 40 man. That's it. It's that simple of an answer.

[lou]

it is absolutely a small sample but its not simply one hot streak. He's been good for 4 months in the playing time he's gotten. In May he had a .296 avg and .889 OPS in the limited at bats he got. June he got sent down and only had 10 ab's off the bench, July he had a .905 OPS in the 22 ab's, and august its 1.067 OPS in the 33 ab's. It is obviously small sample sizes and the rest of the year will tell the whole story, but it's not one hot streak, it's been going on 4 months of playing well when he has been given playing time. In 100 ab's since may he is hitting .304, OPS of 916, and a wrc+ of 147 which is a very good hitter. For the year he has a solid .772 OPS, hitting .268, grading out really well on defense and having a WAR of .5 according to fangraphs.

It is obviously a very small sample and he needs to prove it the last 2 months, but there is no question he has looked like a different, competent player for months now with the bat in his hands. And he's good defensively.

It's not 4 months, it's 100 PA (at a .400ish BABIP and under 4% BB rate). It's not even a cumulative month of MLB time. It's beyond a small sample size. It's a drop in a pond.

Yes he's been better, but I think the point is, you don't need to hype this. He gets no benefit of the doubt until at least another 100 PA (and really ROS of full time work), and that BABIP better drop at a minimum.

Happy for the guy he is having the best year of his career, but I'll be interested in this in September if he holds up.

[Lee Stone]

Brinson: So-so fielder with little range for his speed. Mediocre arm. Can't steal a base by running (or walking). De La Cruz is a lot better and I don't even want him.

[fish16]

you can disagree on brinson but de la cruz stinks. brinson is appreciably better than him.

[Nick]

We'll see how De La Cruz does after we give him 900 ABs then decide.

[fish16]

We'll see how De La Cruz does after we give him 900 ABs then decide.

De la Cruz has 1800 minor league at bats and he has an ops of .757 in those at bats and he's gonna be 25 in december. Prior to this year he never hit over 8 hr's in a year, was 35/59 on steals, and had just one year of slugging in the minors higher than .400. he stinks. nice, likeable guy, but he cant hit. At the majors or the minors.

[Nick]

De la Cruz has 1800 minor league at bats and he has an ops of .757 in those at bats and he's gonna be 25 in december. Prior to this year he never hit over 8 hr's in a year, was 35/59 on steals, and had just one year of slugging in the minors higher than .400. he stinks. nice, likeable guy, but he cant hit. At the majors or the minors.

I don't know why you decided to respond to my joke, but you did.

Brinson is 27 and has a .577 OPS at the major league level in 950 PAs despite this hot streak he's on. If any other 27 year old had a big month after sucking for years, and someone like I don't know, Lee was fawning over him, you'd be giving him shit right now.