July 2021 Game Thread

[fish16]

as for sandy, i didnt watch the game last night but did he just not have it? Poor guy has been ace level but 2 awful starts inflate his stats. He's been tremendous all year and a guy I'm giving a 5 year extension to anchor the rotation and not look back. I wonder if he will do 5 years 60-70 million and hope that buying out his arbitration years will allow him to take that deal.


Didnt mention this but Braxton garrett has been effective but I still see him as a AAAA rotation or a trade piece for a bat if his velocity doesn't come back. 90 MPH just wont do it even with his great breaking ball.

Zach thompson has also been super impressive to me. Doesnt appear to be smoke and mirrors at all. Given that him and elieser seem to be 5 inning max guys id find it super interesting to see if we can stack them every 5th day if we need a rotation spot filled and let each go 3-4 innings. Might be a good way to turn 2 decent assets into a super effective rotation spot.

Also think we will see Edward Cabrera in September for a few starts. Looking forward to him, he's been unbelievably impressive since coming back. I know Lou said service time implications and we can gain a year by leaving him down until a few weeks into next year but id rather him get some innings at the big league level before the offseason so he can do what rogers did and take his licks last year and work on the adjustments that every young starter has to make to be fully ready to start next year after starting the first month of the year in the minors.

[fish16]

i also dont get why we cant get more updates on jesus sanchez. if he had covid coming out of the break he must have been unvaccinated and got super sick because he's going on his 4th week out now. I desperately want to get him back on the field and give him every day at bats to see him continue to improve before next year. Him showing something at the end of the year and making us feel confident that he is going to live up to his prospect status would be a huge piece to add to Jazz, Anderson, and Aguilar for next year.

And i have no idea what the plan is with Lewin Diaz. I like what I've seen from him in his limited time at the big league level and I get aguilar has 1b locked down but id like to see him up here getting 2-3 starts a week instead of continuing to mash AAA. I dont know how you can go into next year counting on him to be the 1b without giving him more of a look this year. I guess the DH option helps and we can always move aguilar to 1b but at some point we need to evaluate Lewin.

[fish16]

and for my final point as i talk to myself, I like the way rowson manages a lot more than Mattingly. It would never happen because Mattingly wouldn't be demoted but I think Mattingly is the perfect bench coach and rowson would be a good manager. Said it before but Mattingly is great as a presence on a rebuilding team where his in game decisions arent as important as helping in player development, but his in game managing is just so bad. Hope rowson doesn't get plucked by another team before next year but I think he will.

[fish16]

looking forward to seeing luzardo again tonight. Colorado might be a difficult place for him compared to marlins park though so keeping my hopes low. Im not sure why we feel the need to get alfaro's horrendous bat in the lineup so badly that we keep playing him in LF but id like to never see this again. Jesus Sanchez cant come back soon enough. Also dont understand why monte isnt up here. I get he hasnt earned jack shit and also tried to fight marte, but if the options are jorge alfaro in LF or getting Monte ab's, it seems like a no brainer.

Starling marte has absolutely crushed it to start his tenure in Oakland. If the top guys arent realistic (and if they are bryant is the no brainer to me with his positional versatility and consistent production), it would be absolutely enormous to re-sign him back after the year. give him 3 years frontloaded and the 3rd year only partially guaranteed. Something like 3 years, 48 million, 17 in the first year, 17 second year, and then 3rd year only 14 million with only half guaranteed or maybe a club or mutual option for that year or something creative. You go sign him, trade pablo and eder for the best young controlled bat you can get on the open market and i'd be very confident in this team next year with the DH back, Anderson hopefully healthy, Aguilar back on a 2 year 12 million deal, and then whichever bat you get in the trade at C. Something like Pablo for Luis Campusano and a reliever they like.

Campusano/Jackson
Lewin
Jazz
Rojas
Anderson
Jesus Sanchez
Starling
FA pickup like duvall to hold down the fort until burdick/conine/bleday
DH- Aguilar
SP- Sandy, Sixto, Rogers, and then pick 2 out of Thompson, Garrett, Neidert, Cabrera, Meyer, Eder.

My dream though is them deciding Bryant is the one to pay huge money to and just pull the trigger. He makes the most sense to me given his ability to play 1b,3b, and corner OF will allow us to be flexible with him and let his versatility help us by letting the prospects battle it out and have the best ones make the team and move Bryant's position accordingly.

[fish16]

johnathan schoop just re-signed with the tigers for 2 years 15 million. interesting comp for aguilar. id imagine aguilar gets slightly less. 2 years 7 million per is about right to me.

[Namaste]

Luzardo is getting doinked to death and rocked. A bad combo.

De La Cruz has no idea where to throw the ball when there are runners on base

[Nick]

Luzardo has a lot of issues to work out. Not sure trying to fix everything at the big leagues is the right strategy.

[Maddawg]

They haven't had anyone they needed to protect versus Brinson, so that's irrelevant. The Yelich trade is certainly a glaring unforgivable failure. As for drafting bats, the jury is out on that, but Scott and Misner (their first big ones) seem bad, but this could swing around fast for them with Bleday, Burdick, Nasim, Capps, Wilson, etc. It's unfair to go here yet, but they certainly missed on the first few major bat acquisitions (and VVM was a big whiff). In their defense, it does look like the next crop of bat prospects (Jazz, Sanchez, Lewin, Bleday) are going to be much. better so we'll see.

I can get with you on the bolds - this all comes back to are they going to spend money and/or acquire 1500+ improved PA for next year. They need two big time position starters, and another really positive platoon bat (or catcher) at minimum, while keeping everyone. I don't know the answer here if they will do it, but I do see their pitching depth and can't imagine someone who is a professional in baseball not making a decision to go for it as their window is now. They have everything figured out besides those 1500 PA and plenty of payroll to spare. For me, if they don't build a team that can get them to July where they can make another decision to really go for it, it's a failure.


For a hypothetical, is this a good offseason for you:

1 - Sign Chris Taylor, something like 4/$60+ to play everyday somewhere, like 90 games in LF/RF and the rest sprinkled around the IF or matchups and days off.

2 - Sign Tucker Barnhardt, something like 3/$18-21 (I think Cincy declines $7.5 million option and won't be able to trade hhim). Superior defensive option and has hit righties around a .750 OPS for 3 years. Alex Jackson is a righty and we can pray for him hitting lefties to form a solid platoon (his minor league splits are definitely better vs lefties). Alfaro is DFA'd here.

3 - Trade Sandy/Pablo for a longterm CF starter, playable right now and controlled for years. This is someone like Brandon Marsh.

4 - Sign a veteran lefty reliever, nothing to expensive, maybe 2/$6+ similar to what Bass got


Barnhart, Jackson
Aguilar, Diaz
Jazz, Berti
Rojas
Anderson
Sanchez
March type player, Brinson/De La Cruz/Harrison/Cheap camp battle with a vet
Taylor, Cooper
(Bleday and others potential mid season adds)

Sandy/Pablo, Rogers, Sixto, Luzardo, Cabrera (minor league depth - Neidert, Poteet, Garrett, with Meyer and Eder mid season possibilities)
Floro, Bender, Bass, E. Hernandez, Thompson, Holloway/Campbell/etc.
New veteran lefty, Bleier

This probably costs $60ish million, which yes is absurdly low. Are we happy with this? I think we're content with the pitching.


Or, do they need to drop Correa, Story, C. Seager, etc. on top of this, which kicks Berti off the team and turns Rojas into super duper utility. At that point, I think we're all smiles?

Or do they need to do more, and say, keep Sandy/Pablo and do something big like resign S. Marte, and now payroll is easily pushing $100+m. Which isn't outrageous, but is this how far they need to go? At this point, I think we'd be ecstatic?


I just want the baseline of when we can get to "they are doing a good job" for you. I think my hypothetical above is likely, with the ability to really go for it if they do want to sign 1-2 more major guys. I'd be through the moon if they did the later but I have low expectations for that.

This is a major contender to me if they did the later and is a mid-payroll team for a few years.

Barnhart, Jackson
Aguilar, Diaz
Jazz
Correa, Rojas
Anderson
Sanchez, Brinson/De La Cruz/Bleday
S. Marte
Taylor, Cooper

Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Sixto, Luzardo/Cabrera
Floro, Bender, Bass, E. Hernandez, Thompson, Cabrera/Luzardo, New veteran lefty, Bleier

We can dream right

I like your scenarios, but why not just draft & develop at least *ONE* major league bat to save you some $$$ payroll as you've done with the pitching? This is why I just don't believe this team will have a real "win now" window of greater than a year or two. There need to be some changes in the front office or you're just doing the same thing over & over. It's why 2020 Draft needed to have at least 1 non-pitcher drafted...same philosophy of an NFL team drafting a QB every year until you find "that guy" whether a starter or your quality backup QB. Hopefully the 2021 draft might have one pf those dudes. But I'm worried about 2 years from now, when those pitchers are going to be wanting to go somewhere where they can pitch damn good & not lose games 1-0, 2-1 etc....that has to be frustrating to Sandy, & the other pitchers, and you are just setting yourself up with a bunch of pitchers acting exactly like Realmuto & Yelich did in saying trade me I don't want to be here anymore I want to go somewhere where I can win

[fish16]

brinson 3-3 with 2 doubles again tonight. easily his best stretch as a marlin, though that's not saying much. got the BA at .252 after being below the mendoza line for 3 years, OPS now at .712. He might be playing himself into at least getting another chance to make the team out of spring next year. The at bats just look so much better and more confident and comfortable than he has ever looked at the big league level. Regardless of whether he is here next year, you have to feel good for him. He's been god awful but he works hard and actually gives a shit but just hasnt had the results. Happy for him and i think he eventually figures it out and has a decently long career.

I think he is going to be aaron hicks 2.0. Very similar start to their career. hicks was a top prospect for the twins that struggled for 4 years to start his career and then got a fresh start with the yankees and became a pretty good player.

[fish16]

happy to see alfaro not being the worst hitter ever for a little bit but please god don't let this fool them into keeping him for next year.

also, send lazardo down and let him figure it out in Jacksonville for a little bit. He just needs to have a consistent delivery and release point and a lot of his problems will be solved.

[fish16]

great AB by brinson again. just a walk but the at bats are so much better and more comfortable. he used to be an automatic 0-2 count and swung at shit and took pitches to hit. no one wants to hear this but if he keeps it up i dont see how you dont at least give him another chance in spring. Really looking forward to his last 2 months. If he can be salvaged that would be pretty significant.

also, the 2b he hit earlier apparently would have been a hr in 16/30 ballparks.

Since may 1, he has an .854 OPS in 88 ab's, bb rate sucks but K rate has become more manageable, 130 wrc+, and even a .282 average.

[lou]

I like your scenarios, but why not just draft & develop at least *ONE* major league bat to save you some $$$ payroll as you've done with the pitching? This is why I just don't believe this team will have a real "win now" window of greater than a year or two. There need to be some changes in the front office or you're just doing the same thing over & over. It's why 2020 Draft needed to have at least 1 non-pitcher drafted...same philosophy of an NFL team drafting a QB every year until you find "that guy" whether a starter or your quality backup QB. Hopefully the 2021 draft might have one pf those dudes. But I'm worried about 2 years from now, when those pitchers are going to be wanting to go somewhere where they can pitch damn good & not lose games 1-0, 2-1 etc....that has to be frustrating to Sandy, & the other pitchers, and you are just setting yourself up with a bunch of pitchers acting exactly like Realmuto & Yelich did in saying trade me I don't want to be here anymore I want to go somewhere where I can win

I mean I agree, why are there no big time bats beyond Anderson (they did develop FWIW), Jazz, and whatever Sanchez and Lewin are? It's been a lot of literal swings and misses. I'm ignoring some solid low key moves like Aguilar, Rojas, and Cooper, etc.

But if we are judging them as a whole which is the only way to do, what they have done with the pitching is not normal by any stretch of the imagination. Teams don't develop/obtain 15-20 legitimate MLB options within a 3 year period, and it is literally that many players (High End (8) - Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Meyer, Cabrera, Eder, Sixto, Luzardo, Mid/lower tier potential arms (6) - Neidert, Garrett, Thompson, Elisier, Bender, Floro, Decent hopes and prayers for lower tier work and maybe more (5) - Holloway, Poteet, Campbell, Castano, Pop, etc. This doesn't even include Gallen, and guys like Nicolas, McCambley, and Fitterer who may work out a year after this group. too. Nor free agents like Bleier (good pick up), Bass (not so good pickup but he's also not terrible like Heath Bell and totally fine), and guys like Curtiss and Cimber they already traded.

This is an incredible -INCREDIBLE- success story that could set them up for close to a decade. Saying there is a 1-2 year contending period is laughable IMO. If you have 4 big time starting pitchers and a screaming bullpen, you're going to be a contender, and right now there can be over a 50% flameout rate and they probably get there. They already have 2 (Sandy, Pablo), one needs a repeat performance but looks good (Rogers), and take your pick from Sixto, Cabrera, and Meyer (the TOP 3 prospects of this entire group. The industry thinks those 3 will be the best), as well as Luzardo and Eder are both top 100 arms. They have bullpen arms here for. sure. I'll take that bet they have the arms here, and as mentioned I haven't even mentioned guys like Fulton yet who are also in the pipeline. It's ridiculous the arm talent they have. It's the best in baseball longterm on paper combined with years of control. Yes it needs to translate, but that's why they play the games. Everyone important is up and throwing innings next year for sure so we will know.

So why not draft them? First 7 picks in the 2021 draft were bats and considered throughout the industry to have the top, floor 5th, best draft. I disagree the 2020 draft needed a bat. They fucking murdered that draft. They've had the best draft in the league two years in a row (plus good international signings!). Baseball should be BPA and if the board is all pitchers, you do that.

Basically, for every fault with the bats, they've obtained 2 pitchers to make up for it. Now it's time to leverage that and trade one of those big 8 high end guys for a massive bat, and sign two more in FA/lower trades.

These arms are all under club control for 3-9 years (most of them 5-9, including minors options) so no issues if in 2 years they want a new team. Not going to happen. Irrelevant.

Realmuto and Yelich were part of a prior regime that saw Stanton and Ozuna traded, as well as other ridiculous moves (Paddack trade, etc.) and years of mismanagement. Not comparable. The Marlins made the playoffs last year even if the 2020 season was a worldwide disaster. Also no one on the Marlins is currently as good as Yelich or Realmuto, but Sandy and Pablo are getting closer and Rogers and Jazz have a shot with a 2nd year performance bump. They don't have the clout to demand anything or be angry.

Long story long, this all comes down to they need 1500 PA for next year, presumably the majority of those coming in CF and C, and ideally another 2B/SS and make Rojas a super utility and move him everywhere. Are they gonna do it? I think they will. The pitching is too good, or projectable to be too good, to not to do it.

My fear is they go the cheap route - trade Pablo/Sandy for a big CF prospect, trade Meyer/Sixto/Cabrera for a big 2B/SS prospect, and trade Elisier for a serviceable catcher (someone like Tucker Barnhart, and then extend). On paper, that may look pretty alright adding two "Bleday/Jazz" level bats to the MLB team immediately, but then we get into how fast will these guys acclimate to the bigs and now we've wasted another year of pitcher control. This is a bittersweet move.

I think at minimum need to sign 2 veteran free agents - one massive everyday player and a 4th OF-CF type who will play a lot (unless of course fish16 gets his dream and Brinson is viable and then you can keep him), trade for Tucker Barnhart in a low-key move and have a good R/L platoon, and then move "1" of those top 8 arms for a young CF or 2B/SS. They can have some work in progresses at the MLB level (new guy, Lewin, Sanchez, Bleday at midseason, etc.), but they can't just run out all rookies. They have the pitching to win now. So I'll be disappointed if they don't play to win the game. It's time to win. Are they gonna do it?

[lou]

brinson 3-3 with 2 doubles again tonight. easily his best stretch as a marlin, though that's not saying much. got the BA at .252 after being below the mendoza line for 3 years, OPS now at .712. He might be playing himself into at least getting another chance to make the team out of spring next year. The at bats just look so much better and more confident and comfortable than he has ever looked at the big league level. Regardless of whether he is here next year, you have to feel good for him. He's been god awful but he works hard and actually gives a shit but just hasnt had the results. Happy for him and i think he eventually figures it out and has a decently long career.

I think he is going to be aaron hicks 2.0. Very similar start to their career. hicks was a top prospect for the twins that struggled for 4 years to start his career and then got a fresh start with the yankees and became a pretty good player.

Hicks is bold. He's had a good career. Also I'd pump the breaks for any excitement from summer-Coors hits.

Since May 4th, Brinson is hitting .291/.325/.544, but that comes with the caveat it is only 83 PA, 3.6% BB / 34.9% K, and a .413 BABIP. This is screaming sample size as you know. I'm happy for the guy the hits are landing and I do think observationally, the PA and body language look better, but cold hard numbers are cold hard numbers.

I'd like to see closer to a 6%/30% BB/K rate, and once the BABIP settles he's still hitting over .240. That honestly gets him to something like .240/.300/.425+ probably, and if he can finally get his head straight defensively, that's a fine backup. I think if he does that ROS, you tender him and project him as your 4th OF. He still has some upside in there so that's going to be worth it for 2 months into 2022 and see if it holds up. But he needs a strong end of the year to get there.

I'm rooting for him but have basically 0 expectations.

[fish16]

Hicks is bold. He's had a good career. Also I'd pump the breaks for any excitement from summer-Coors hits.

Since May 4th, Brinson is hitting .291/.325/.544, but that comes with the caveat it is only 83 PA, 3.6% BB / 34.9% K, and a .413 BABIP. This is screaming sample size as you know. I'm happy for the guy the hits are landing and I do think observationally, the PA and body language look better, but cold hard numbers are cold hard numbers.

I'd like to see closer to a 6%/30% BB/K rate, and once the BABIP settles he's still hitting over .240. That honestly gets him to something like .240/.300/.425+ probably, and if he can finally get his head straight defensively, that's a fine backup. I think if he does that ROS, you tender him and project him as your 4th OF. He still has some upside in there so that's going to be worth it for 2 months into 2022 and see if it holds up. But he needs a strong end of the year to get there.

I'm rooting for him but have basically 0 expectations.

absolutely fair. that's why i want to see him in the lineup everyday the rest of the year. I think with 2 more months of sample size we will have a better idea of what he is. To me while the BABIP is indicative of regression, he's also easily at the highest hard hit % of his career here. He's at 42.3% hard hit this year, last year it was 36.8, the year before it was 32, and the first year here is was 38%. If he can increase that BB% a little he's a good 4th OF option and a guy i wouldnt mind starting for a little with injuries.

the biggest thing to me is, aside from the numbers and production, the AB's just look so much better and more comfortable and that gives me a little hope he can become a productive guy for us.

[Erick]

I’m actually hoping the real Lewis Brinson comes back soon before the year ends so the organization isn’t fooled into thinking he can be the starting CF’er again.

Enough of Brinson, Alfaro, Isan, etc. please.