July 2021 Game Thread

[Namaste]

In classic Marlins deadline fashion, Marte is OPS’ing over 1.000 in Oakland and Luzardo has a 4.86 xFIP but an eye popping 7.36 ERA as a Marlin.

[Nick]

I mean, you can’t have looked at what Luzardo’s done this year before he got here and expected instant success. His mechanics need an overhaul, clearly he has ace stuff, the pitching gurus in the organization will need to earn their paychecks.

[lou]

In classic Marlins deadline fashion, Marte is OPS’ing over 1.000 in Oakland and Luzardo has a 4.86 xFIP but an eye popping 7.36 ERA as a Marlin.

I have no problems not giving Marte a contract for ages 33-36. We will all be angry in 2 years when the pitching may REALLY be rocking by then with presumably a $20 million annual on a fast declining CF. Luzardo is going to be fine. HR rate is obnoxious and the BABIP is a tad high. He's a tweak or two from murdering some people.

That being said, if they can get Marte for 3 years in free agency and front load year 1, they should do it and not worry if year 3 is a mess. I'm talking 3/$63 and it's $30-22-$8, option year $3 buyout, etc.

[Nick]

I guess I shouldn't be, but I'm completely caught off guard every time we have to put together a game with the likes of David Hess and Sean Guenther. I never know how it happens, seems like we should always have excess pitching. I guess Rogers is injured? That's all I can think of.

[Maddawg]

I mean I agree, why are there no big time bats beyond Anderson (they did develop FWIW), Jazz, and whatever Sanchez and Lewin are? It's been a lot of literal swings and misses. I'm ignoring some solid low key moves like Aguilar, Rojas, and Cooper, etc.

But if we are judging them as a whole which is the only way to do, what they have done with the pitching is not normal by any stretch of the imagination. Teams don't develop/obtain 15-20 legitimate MLB options within a 3 year period, and it is literally that many players (High End (8) - Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Meyer, Cabrera, Eder, Sixto, Luzardo, Mid/lower tier potential arms (6) - Neidert, Garrett, Thompson, Elisier, Bender, Floro, Decent hopes and prayers for lower tier work and maybe more (5) - Holloway, Poteet, Campbell, Castano, Pop, etc. This doesn't even include Gallen, and guys like Nicolas, McCambley, and Fitterer who may work out a year after this group. too. Nor free agents like Bleier (good pick up), Bass (not so good pickup but he's also not terrible like Heath Bell and totally fine), and guys like Curtiss and Cimber they already traded.

This is an incredible -INCREDIBLE- success story that could set them up for close to a decade. Saying there is a 1-2 year contending period is laughable IMO. If you have 4 big time starting pitchers and a screaming bullpen, you're going to be a contender, and right now there can be over a 50% flameout rate and they probably get there. They already have 2 (Sandy, Pablo), one needs a repeat performance but looks good (Rogers), and take your pick from Sixto, Cabrera, and Meyer (the TOP 3 prospects of this entire group. The industry thinks those 3 will be the best), as well as Luzardo and Eder are both top 100 arms. They have bullpen arms here for. sure. I'll take that bet they have the arms here, and as mentioned I haven't even mentioned guys like Fulton yet who are also in the pipeline. It's ridiculous the arm talent they have. It's the best in baseball longterm on paper combined with years of control. Yes it needs to translate, but that's why they play the games. Everyone important is up and throwing innings next year for sure so we will know.

So why not draft them? First 7 picks in the 2021 draft were bats and considered throughout the industry to have the top, floor 5th, best draft. I disagree the 2020 draft needed a bat. They fucking murdered that draft. They've had the best draft in the league two years in a row (plus good international signings!). Baseball should be BPA and if the board is all pitchers, you do that.

Basically, for every fault with the bats, they've obtained 2 pitchers to make up for it. Now it's time to leverage that and trade one of those big 8 high end guys for a massive bat, and sign two more in FA/lower trades.

These arms are all under club control for 3-9 years (most of them 5-9, including minors options) so no issues if in 2 years they want a new team. Not going to happen. Irrelevant.

Realmuto and Yelich were part of a prior regime that saw Stanton and Ozuna traded, as well as other ridiculous moves (Paddack trade, etc.) and years of mismanagement. Not comparable. The Marlins made the playoffs last year even if the 2020 season was a worldwide disaster. Also no one on the Marlins is currently as good as Yelich or Realmuto, but Sandy and Pablo are getting closer and Rogers and Jazz have a shot with a 2nd year performance bump. They don't have the clout to demand anything or be angry.

Long story long, this all comes down to they need 1500 PA for next year, presumably the majority of those coming in CF and C, and ideally another 2B/SS and make Rojas a super utility and move him everywhere. Are they gonna do it? I think they will. The pitching is too good, or projectable to be too good, to not to do it.

My fear is they go the cheap route - trade Pablo/Sandy for a big CF prospect, trade Meyer/Sixto/Cabrera for a big 2B/SS prospect, and trade Elisier for a serviceable catcher (someone like Tucker Barnhart, and then extend). On paper, that may look pretty alright adding two "Bleday/Jazz" level bats to the MLB team immediately, but then we get into how fast will these guys acclimate to the bigs and now we've wasted another year of pitcher control. This is a bittersweet move.

I think at minimum need to sign 2 veteran free agents - one massive everyday player and a 4th OF-CF type who will play a lot (unless of course fish16 gets his dream and Brinson is viable and then you can keep him), trade for Tucker Barnhart in a low-key move and have a good R/L platoon, and then move "1" of those top 8 arms for a young CF or 2B/SS. They can have some work in progresses at the MLB level (new guy, Lewin, Sanchez, Bleday at midseason, etc.), but they can't just run out all rookies. They have the pitching to win now. So I'll be disappointed if they don't play to win the game. It's time to win. Are they gonna do it?

Lou your post makes me feel a lot better, but that last point is the lynchpin of this off-season. It's just a wait & see project now, and hope they do the right thing,

[Maddawg]

We score 8, yet lose...sigh...swept in Colorado.

[Nick]

I mean I agree, why are there no big time bats beyond Anderson (they did develop FWIW), Jazz, and whatever Sanchez and Lewin are? It's been a lot of literal swings and misses. I'm ignoring some solid low key moves like Aguilar, Rojas, and Cooper, etc.

But if we are judging them as a whole which is the only way to do, what they have done with the pitching is not normal by any stretch of the imagination. Teams don't develop/obtain 15-20 legitimate MLB options within a 3 year period, and it is literally that many players (High End (8) - Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Meyer, Cabrera, Eder, Sixto, Luzardo, Mid/lower tier potential arms (6) - Neidert, Garrett, Thompson, Elisier, Bender, Floro, Decent hopes and prayers for lower tier work and maybe more (5) - Holloway, Poteet, Campbell, Castano, Pop, etc. This doesn't even include Gallen, and guys like Nicolas, McCambley, and Fitterer who may work out a year after this group. too. Nor free agents like Bleier (good pick up), Bass (not so good pickup but he's also not terrible like Heath Bell and totally fine), and guys like Curtiss and Cimber they already traded.

This is an incredible -INCREDIBLE- success story that could set them up for close to a decade. Saying there is a 1-2 year contending period is laughable IMO. If you have 4 big time starting pitchers and a screaming bullpen, you're going to be a contender, and right now there can be over a 50% flameout rate and they probably get there. They already have 2 (Sandy, Pablo), one needs a repeat performance but looks good (Rogers), and take your pick from Sixto, Cabrera, and Meyer (the TOP 3 prospects of this entire group. The industry thinks those 3 will be the best), as well as Luzardo and Eder are both top 100 arms. They have bullpen arms here for. sure. I'll take that bet they have the arms here, and as mentioned I haven't even mentioned guys like Fulton yet who are also in the pipeline. It's ridiculous the arm talent they have. It's the best in baseball longterm on paper combined with years of control. Yes it needs to translate, but that's why they play the games. Everyone important is up and throwing innings next year for sure so we will know.

So why not draft them? First 7 picks in the 2021 draft were bats and considered throughout the industry to have the top, floor 5th, best draft. I disagree the 2020 draft needed a bat. They fucking murdered that draft. They've had the best draft in the league two years in a row (plus good international signings!). Baseball should be BPA and if the board is all pitchers, you do that.

Basically, for every fault with the bats, they've obtained 2 pitchers to make up for it. Now it's time to leverage that and trade one of those big 8 high end guys for a massive bat, and sign two more in FA/lower trades.

These arms are all under club control for 3-9 years (most of them 5-9, including minors options) so no issues if in 2 years they want a new team. Not going to happen. Irrelevant.

Realmuto and Yelich were part of a prior regime that saw Stanton and Ozuna traded, as well as other ridiculous moves (Paddack trade, etc.) and years of mismanagement. Not comparable. The Marlins made the playoffs last year even if the 2020 season was a worldwide disaster. Also no one on the Marlins is currently as good as Yelich or Realmuto, but Sandy and Pablo are getting closer and Rogers and Jazz have a shot with a 2nd year performance bump. They don't have the clout to demand anything or be angry.

Long story long, this all comes down to they need 1500 PA for next year, presumably the majority of those coming in CF and C, and ideally another 2B/SS and make Rojas a super utility and move him everywhere. Are they gonna do it? I think they will. The pitching is too good, or projectable to be too good, to not to do it.

My fear is they go the cheap route - trade Pablo/Sandy for a big CF prospect, trade Meyer/Sixto/Cabrera for a big 2B/SS prospect, and trade Elisier for a serviceable catcher (someone like Tucker Barnhart, and then extend). On paper, that may look pretty alright adding two "Bleday/Jazz" level bats to the MLB team immediately, but then we get into how fast will these guys acclimate to the bigs and now we've wasted another year of pitcher control. This is a bittersweet move.

I think at minimum need to sign 2 veteran free agents - one massive everyday player and a 4th OF-CF type who will play a lot (unless of course fish16 gets his dream and Brinson is viable and then you can keep him), trade for Tucker Barnhart in a low-key move and have a good R/L platoon, and then move "1" of those top 8 arms for a young CF or 2B/SS. They can have some work in progresses at the MLB level (new guy, Lewin, Sanchez, Bleday at midseason, etc.), but they can't just run out all rookies. They have the pitching to win now. So I'll be disappointed if they don't play to win the game. It's time to win. Are they gonna do it?

lou you didn't even mention Eury Perez who might turn out to be the best pitching prospect we have. He's certainly better at 18 than any of the other pitching prospects we have were at 18.

[Namaste]

I have no problems not giving Marte a contract for ages 33-36. We will all be angry in 2 years when the pitching may REALLY be rocking by then with presumably a $20 million annual on a fast declining CF. Luzardo is going to be fine. HR rate is obnoxious and the BABIP is a tad high. He's a tweak or two from murdering some people.

That being said, if they can get Marte for 3 years in free agency and front load year 1, they should do it and not worry if year 3 is a mess. I'm talking 3/$63 and it's $30-22-$8, option year $3 buyout, etc.

Agreed, lou.

It came off like I was bitching about the move but I meant more from an optics perspective.

I’d be really happy if they could lockdown Marte on a 3 year deal in the off season. He was my new favorite Marlins player.

But I totally understand why they moved him.

[Erick]

I’m not a huge fan of Lewis Brinson, the baseball player, at this point, but he is playing better.

Also, Lewis Brinson is a human being so fuck the guy who was yelling the N-Word today while he was hitting.

[Maddawg]

I’m not a huge fan of Lewis Brinson, the baseball player, at this point, but he is playing better.

Also, Lewis Brinson is a human being so fuck the guy who was yelling the N-Word today while he was hitting.

Oh, those lovely tRumpanzees. I thought maybe they'd all crawled back under their rocks by now.

[Maddawg]

I’m not a huge fan of Lewis Brinson, the baseball player, at this point, but he is playing better.

Also, Lewis Brinson is a human being so fuck the guy who was yelling the N-Word today while he was hitting.

both the Rockies & Marlins local broadcasts are not available on the MLB.TV archive. MLB.TV took them both down.

I have not been a fan of Lew Brinson...THAT IS CLEAR. But I do not know him personally, but I do know he's a good human being. I criticize his play in the field.

But this is the behavior you get when you let an avowed racist who makes it "okay" to spout off extremist racist crap, to lead your country from the highest position in the land, and is the standard-bearer of one of your 2 major political parties. Extremists gain confidence to say extremely offensive things not only in public, but LOUDLY in public.

This is not acceptable and hopefully, Rockies officials & MLB pursue this person. Ban them from all MLB & MiLB stadiums. He can still say that word but just won't do it in MLB & MiLB stadiums.

[fish16]

It’s unclear but I’m seeing stuff on Twitter that the Rockies mascot is named dinger and he was in the picture and the guy was calling out for him. If that’s not the case that’s obviously gross but I think the fact that no one called this guy out as it happened I think this might be a huge misunderstanding

[Nick]

It’s unclear but I’m seeing stuff on Twitter that the Rockies mascot is named dinger and he was in the picture and the guy was calling out for him. If that’s not the case that’s obviously gross but I think the fact that no one called this guy out as it happened I think this might be a huge misunderstanding

I had the same thought, but boy it sure sounds like n word and not Dinger in the video.

[fish16]

on a side note, after the weekend since may 1, brinson now hitting .295, .333 OBP, .545 slugging, and an .879 OPS with a wrc+ of 138. He's been legitimately good when given an opportunity for 4 months straight. Hard hit % in that time is 44.1%, medium is 44.1%, and soft hit is just 11.9%. Fly balls and line drives 59% of the time.

And when asked about him, rowson mentioned he's cleaned his swing up a ton which allowed him to drive more balls consistently.

[fish16]

I had the same thought, but boy it sure sounds like n word and not Dinger in the video.

it does but they found the guy who said it and he's clearly not looking at brinson, and is waving towards the rockies dugout which is where the mascot was. Also i think the fact that no one punched the guy in the face immediately or at least confronted the guy indicates it not what it sounded like over the mic