July 2021 Game Thread

[sports24/7]

Good news and bad.

First the bad: Mounting losses have mostly been of the worst kind - self inflicted. As someone above noted, catching is awful from both offensive and defensive side (and has been for multiple seasons). There are so many "sellers" at the deadline that returns will be weak. Brian Anderson hasn't been able to put wood on leather at AAA yet - it's been a whiff fest. The minor league hopes have been dampened if not waterlogged. Bleday, Misner, Scott, Encarancion, VV Mesa and even Burdick have all been disappointing to varying degrees (from extremely to very). Cabrera hasn't been effective in his last three starts ('AA and AAA). Meyer and Eder have retained great ERA numbers, but both are fading.

Good news: Bryson Brigman should get a chance to prove he's the beacon of our farm system! It's at least entertaining to have the MiLB HR champ in our system. I'm not sure why Conine's still in A+ ball. His HR numbers would likely be the same at any level.






.

I believe Conine was promoted to AA yesterday. So that’s good news. It’ll be interesting to see if he keeps hitting like he has been there.

[Lee Stone]

I believe Conine was promoted to AA yesterday. So that’s good news. It’ll be interesting to see if he keeps hitting like he has been there.

Thanks. I hadn't heard that Conine is headed to AA.

[Namaste]

Tonights lineup

Alfaro is batting 5th

Marte not in the lineup


Rojas
Berti
Aggy
Duvall
Alfaro
Panik
Sweet Lew
Harrison
Detweiller

[Nick]

Jesus.

Is Rogers hurt or something? Why isn't he starting tonight?

[Namaste]

Obviously the season officially ended yesterday

[Namaste]

Someone get Detty a L-Screen

[Todd]

Good news and bad.

First the bad: Mounting losses have mostly been of the worst kind - self inflicted. As someone above noted, catching is awful from both offensive and defensive side (and has been for multiple seasons). There are so many "sellers" at the deadline that returns will be weak. Brian Anderson hasn't been able to put wood on leather at AAA yet - it's been a whiff fest. The minor league hopes have been dampened if not waterlogged. Bleday, Misner, Scott, Encarancion, VV Mesa and even Burdick have all been disappointing to varying degrees (from extremely to very). Cabrera hasn't been effective in his last three starts ('AA and AAA). Meyer and Eder have retained great ERA numbers, but both are fading.

Good news: Bryson Brigman should get a chance to prove he's the beacon of our farm system! It's at least entertaining to have the MiLB HR champ in our system. I'm not sure why Conine's still in A+ ball. His HR numbers would likely be the same at any level.






.

Bryson Brigman is 26 years old and had a career .267/.344/.333 line in the minors before this year where his BABIP is almost .370.

Come on man.

[Maddawg]

Way to go Front Office....this is what happens when you basically tell a team "we're done trying to win".

[fish16]

how exactly did the front office tell the team we're done trying to win?

[Nick]

how exactly did the front office tell the team we're done trying to win?

I hate to somewhat agree with Maddawg, but if starting Detwiler for the 2nd time in 4 days isn't a white flag, I don't know what is.

[AdamRavs]

I feel like this ownership group is broker than Loria. That was hard to do too.

[Lee Stone]

Bryson Brigman is 26 years old and had a career .267/.344/.333 line in the minors before this year where his BABIP is almost .370.

Come on man.

Come on, man. I was mocking a farm system that has Brigman leading it in batting average. Seems like every level features a lineup of guys hitting low .200's and less.

[lou]

These "owners" as I have stated before are NOT here to win but make profits....low payroll FOREVER and luxury tax & and new TV revenues & stadium naming rights money is going to be making them HUGE profits......Derek's 1st introductory press conference back in Oct 2017....when asked about winning his answer was "we need this team to be sustainable" that's about making profits....not winning....I know you all will pooh-pooh what I say but no long term contracts, not stars to win games, lowest payroll they can have....it all points to PROFITS not winning

Coming into this year, they had huge question marks about how good the pitchers are, plus some did have some lingering injuries which have turned out to be serious for this year. In the middle of a 100 year pandemic, I don't blame them for not breaking the bank in 2021. They did need to see what they had.

We know that answer now - the pitching is fucking incredible, they have a few long-term options they need to play (Anderson, Jazz, Sanchez), and they have "championship calibre" platoon/bench players in Duvall, Rojas, and Cooper. The other 8+ position player spots are a mess for long-term purposes.

It comes down to me, are they going to spend next year? This is going to cost $45-48 million (approx numbers, and I am overestimating club controlled guys to deflect someone like Pablo making more, etc.) and is frankly, 2-4 players away from being a real contender with that pitching. Note Bleday, Eder, and Meyer are not below which could be tremendous mid-season adds.

Alfaro ($3m), ________
Cooper (3.5m), L. Diaz ($750k)
Jazz ($750k)), Berti ($1.5m)
_________, Rojas ($5.5m)
Anderson ($5m)
Sanchez ($750k)
_________, Harrison ($750k)
Duvall ($3m)

Sandy ($7m), Pablo ($4.5m), Rogers ($750k), Sixto ($750k), Cabrera/Thompson/Poteet/Neidert ($750k)
Bass ($3m), Floro ($1.25m), Bender ($750k), Elisier ($1.5m), Curtiss ($750k), Holloway ($750k)
Bleier ($2m), _________

[This also doesn't account they can probably DFA Alfaro and move Bass and Bleier this deadline, which would get things closer to $38-40 million.]

When you look at 2023, $10-15 million is coming off the books with guys like Rojas, Cooper, Duvall, etc. moving on and likely some non-tenders to someone like Berti or Floro/pen arms. Add in arbitration raises, plus adding in guys like Bleday, Burdick/Jerar, Meyer, etc., the team is going to be around $40 million again. Basically, new payroll isn't emerging even when guys hit arbitration. This team is CHEAP for 3-4 years keeping everyone. They will have internal options for 20+ spots easily with this pitching surplus and some of the bats are bound to be work out into at least bench roles.

If we're looking at roster construction, they frankly need this now and longterm:

-A star level longterm 2B/SS opposite Jazz. Isan stinks. Yelich trade is an 0/4 bust.
-A longterm catcher. Obvious.
-A two year CF, to allow Scott/Misner/etc. cook for 2 more years in the minors and see if you get lucky. Maybe Wilson moves here too. I don't think you commit longterm here with all the guys even if they are collecting flat-lining this year.
-Bullpen lefties. Multiple. They need these guys and have for years.

This trade deadline should net the bullpen lefties, those seem like reasonable things to acquire for Aguilar, Yimi, etc.

Marte plus throwing in lower-level prospects (ala Vallimont, who is doing well) should net them a catcher.

I don't think you move Cooper/Rojas/Duvall as we're at the point the Marlins team and farm is loaded with young talent and those guys aren't' bringing back difference makers. They need to treat them as part of a contending team rather than dish them for outside top 15 system prospects. They are good and they should keep them.


So long story long, we get to - they have a legitimate roster of 20-23+ guys around $40-45 million for 3+ years, and after that it probably jumps to the $60s range when a bunch of guys hit Arb1 and Sandy/Rogers/Pablo are maybe making a bunch. They need to sign "1" longterm awesome starter at 2B/SS (this is Correa for me), and just need someone on a 2 year deal for CF and C to not be embarrassing. Everything else is going to be year to year bench guys/bullpen lefties.

Keep all of the pitchers (someone mentioned maybe trade Pablo. Not yet for any major arm. Hold all the major pitchers to next deadline to see how Sixto, Cabrera, Elisier, Meyer, and Eder look), and then bank on steps forwards from Lewin, Jazz, Sanchez, etc. They can collect bats June/July 2022 if they all stink by moving pitching then.


So back to your point, do they care about winning or profit? They have the team figured out. They tasted the playoffs. They have a top 3 young staff in baseball with more upside coming as arguably their three best prospects (Sixto, Cabrera, Meyer) aren't here yet. Naming rights. TV deal. They have done everything expected of them.

If they give Correa the mega-deal, and just fill in 2-3 spots with ordinary guys, they are well under $100 million, and would probably fall 17-23rd range in overall baseball payroll. If they don't do this with the pitching they have next 2-4 years, we will know our answer. Maybe you are right, but I don't think so. I think so big things are coming. I don't think we can read anything into not wanting Marte longterm. That is a reasonable position to not give him more than 2.

We'll see. Play all the kids and prep for next year.

[dgriot]

I feel like this ownership group is broker than Loria. That was hard to do too.

They haven't reached the "throwing in prospects and competitive balance picks for salary relief" stage yet. Still run of the mill broke in my book.

[Namaste]

Come on, man. I was mocking a farm system that has Brigman leading it in batting average. Seems like every level features a lineup of guys hitting low .200's and less.

It flew about 2.5 miles over Todd’s head.