Offseason Discussion - Positions Players/Bench

[tjfla]

I'd define Mickey Mouse organization as drafting guys that will sign at/below slot and not best prospective available (How sweet would Beckham or Smoak be right now?), not tendering arbitration to Class B free agents who will not take it and will get 2-3 year deals (see A. Rhodes, soon N. Johnson) thus not getting us a compensatory 1st rounder, not buying out clear super stars like Cabrea, Willis (yea, if you buy him out even him blowing up is not that big of a liability), and Beckett early on, and when given the "second" opportunity to sign a guy, see Josh Johnson right now, they still balk at the notion of signing a player.

But I mean, it's not over yet. The biggest mistake they've made was not giving Cabrera 5-6 years pre or post 2005 when he was reasonable. I think that's the only thing that is really mind boggling and indefensible.

Tender NJ, sign JJ, don't give Gload that much, and if Coghlan, Maybin, Volstad, West, etc., are awesome in 2010, buy out at least 4 years and tac on FA options ala James Shields/Grady Sizemore.

If they do these simple things that is both safe and smart, I'm cool. If not, Mickey Mouse it is and I guess this stadium isn't the cure all some of us hoped.

We are a Joke Organization. However the drafting guys under slot is not really a problem BECAUSE everyone knows we draft young HS pitching. It is not a real secret around the league that if we have a choice between a solid bat and a young HS arm we will take the arm.The fact that the young HS arm costs less is just a bonus to Loria. Can't really fault an organization for taken arms rather than signing them to 6 yr 100 mil dollar deal when they are 30 yr old

The only reason we took Skipworth is because everyone and there mother was talking about this kid can hit AND Catch. We have been looking for a catcher since the CJ days. Now the problem is that Skip can't hit and his defense at Catcher is even worse if its possible.

The non tender is the joke tho because we could be signing guys to add to the system.Was like this year when we gave a 34th rd pick $100,000. We could have gave Arthur Rhodes arbitration and taken a guy at #34 in the draft and gave him $100,000.Then on top of that we take a nice bat in Dustin Dickerson he has a bad summer and we void his contract??? The same thing is gonna happen with Nick Johnson,teams like him and will pay him.

[Bobbob1313]

I wish we had something more concrete on this. I just can't bring myself to believe anything Sosnick says, and I find the 3/22 figure really questionable. I really think that's what they started with, not their highest offer.

I'm split on the guaranteed fourth year, personally. I know JJ is the man, but his last month was really, really worrisome to me. If it was me, I'd offer him this:

Year 1: $5 mil
Year 2: $8 mil
Year 3: $ 12 mil

(Not far off from what the Marlins reportedly offered. Just 3 mil off total)

And then year 4 is a team option that automatically kicks in for 14 million if he pitches 375 innings in the first two years and is escalated to 16 if he pitches 575 total during the three years.

So he knows by the end of 2011 if he's going to be getting that 4th year but still puts an onus on having a big year in year 3 to get to the max. And even if he doesn't meet those goals, the team can still pick it up. If not, there'd be a $5 million dollar buyout for the fourth year.

That's essentially a fully guaranteed 4th year, but still allows the Marlins to point at it with other pitchers and say "look, we didn't even give him the 4th year!" and maintain their philosophical edge.

Of course, if Sosnick isn't just posturing then even a deal like that gets turned down sight unseen, right?



And, just as a small sidenote to something Swift said, I'm not sure not giving Beckett a long term deal should be classified as a mistake. I'm not sure he was ever going to worth a contract here, given the fact that he absolutely could not stay healthy when he was here. My opinion is probably colored by the fact that I think he's among the most overrated pitchers in baseball, but still, I wouldn't put that on the level of a Miguel. Hell, I'd even say Dontrelle was a better bet for a long term deal than Beckett.

[SFiercex4]

I wish we had something more concrete on this. I just can't bring myself to believe anything Sosnick says, and I find the 3/22 figure really questionable. I really think that's what they started with, not their highest offer.

I'm split on the guaranteed fourth year, personally. I know JJ is the man, but his last month was really, really worrisome to me. If it was me, I'd offer him this:

Year 1: $5 mil
Year 2: $8 mil
Year 3: $ 12 mil

(Not far off from what the Marlins reportedly offered. Just 3 mil off total)

And then year 4 is a team option that automatically kicks in for 14 million if he pitches 375 innings in the first two years and is escalated to 16 if he pitches 575 total during the three years.

So he knows by the end of 2011 if he's going to be getting that 4th year but still puts an onus on having a big year in year 3 to get to the max. And even if he doesn't meet those goals, the team can still pick it up. If not, there'd be a $5 million dollar buyout for the fourth year.

That's essentially a fully guaranteed 4th year, but still allows the Marlins to point at it with other pitchers and say "look, we didn't even give him the 4th year!" and maintain their philosophical edge.

Totally agree with you here. The Marlins can and should offer up to 3/28M with an option year and still be fine in my opinion. Not sure why they wouldn't do it and why Johnson wouldn't take it.

[Bobbob1313]

3/28 I think is a little much.

6-8-14? 5-9-14? 4-9-15?

Either way, you are probably paying more than you should each year. I understand the larger point, but Greinke's only at 3/24.5 for the first three, and didn't his agent say they were looking for just under Greinke?

[Jay]

3/28 I think is a little much.

6-8-14? 5-9-14? 4-9-15?

Either way, you are probably paying more than you should each year. I understand the larger point, but Greinke's only at 3/24.5 for the first three, and didn't his agent say they were looking for just under Greinke?

When there is no guaranteed 4th year the salary in those first 3 years must compensate for it. Johnson also has been much more consistent then greinke throughout his young career. JJ has had major surgery which is a concern to most people when making a multiyear investment in a player.

[Bobbob1313]

I'd say the major surgery is a bigger red flag than Greinke's inconsistency.

[Jay]

I'd say the major surgery is a bigger red flag than Greinke's inconsistency.

Greinke quitting baseball altogether because of no longer desiring to play is just as big of a red flag in my mind. Plus clubs insure players incase they get injured so its not like the money will not be reimbursed to some extent.

[Swifty]

I want to not believe everything I read, especially when sensationalism sells, but there's a reason we're the Marlins.

What I was told by my friend, who was at SFX at the time with Fern Cuza, regarding our Cabrera negotiations too closely resembles this. We supposedly went to the table with a one year deal and a 3 year deal. Cuza asked for either 3, 5 or 10 years. Beinfest responded that it was a take it or leave it offer and we weren't budging off the 3 years or the 20-something million so they could take it or go to arbitration. Cuza then gave what is my favorite anecdotal reply ever "fine, we're going to take you to arbitration and we're going to kick your ass." They did, and they did, and it looks like we're trying it again, just hoping for different results.

Like lou, I'm bothered that we just continue to find a way to allocate blame, initially with payroll constraints, now organizational philosophy. If you're not going to build a rotation around JJ, and if you're not going to be flexible to accomplish your "#1 offseason goal" there are really long-term competitive issues that simply cannot be overcome.
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I'd say the major surgery is a bigger red flag than Greinke's inconsistency.

I really don't understand why people consider TJ a major surgery. Just because it ended a career 30 years ago doesn't mean it is still a heart sinking diagnosis. Just because the recovery time is long doesn't mean that it is cataclysmic.

It rolls the arm's "odometer" back to basically 0. If anything, JJ's got a new lease on life.

If this were his rotator cuff, or anything in his shoulder or back that could become 'chronic' yeah, stay the fuck away, but this is Tommy John we're talking about. It's become the baseball equivalent of a NBA/NFL knee scope. It happens, whatever. When the guy's back, he'll be there for a while.

[Bobbob1313]

I disagree that it's not major surgery. It's really a crap shoot, if you look at guys who have come back from it. You have your Josh Johnsons and then you have your Fransisco Liriano's.

Sure, it's not Rotator Cuff surgery, but it's something you have to think about.

[emkayseven]

to me the fact that he had TJ would make me MORE comfortable with signing him long term. the worst is behind him and he's rebounded nicely. odds are he won't ever have TJ again. just for shits and giggles:

Andrews performed 1,169 Tommy John surgeries over the 12-year span from 1994 until 2005. Of those, only 12 players were going for their second elbow reconstruction.

I mean, it barely ever happens. So given the fact that he has no other injury history, I'd say he's a pretty healthy dude.

[Bobbob1313]

Well, it's not just the elbow. I know Anibal had TJ in like 03 and who knows how that might have affected him otherwise.

I'm not saying he's an injury risk at all. But the problems he had in maintaining his pitch count late along with the past injury are potential red flags, and something that shouldn't be ignore. It is the reason his agent wants the guaranteed money and the reason the Marlins don't want to guarantee the 4th year.

[Swifty]

Anibal's issues went on well before the TJ. He had chronic nerve issues with his shoulder which snowballed.
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Well, it's not just the elbow. I know Anibal had TJ in like 03 and who knows how that might have affected him otherwise.

I'm not saying he's an injury risk at all. But the problems he had in maintaining his pitch count late along with the past injury are potential red flags, and something that shouldn't be ignore. It is the reason his agent wants the guaranteed money and the reason the Marlins don't want to guarantee the 4th year.

They're asking for 4 because there's literally no incentive to take 3 at a depressed market rate.

In his 2 years in arbitration, JJ could realistically be looking at $18 million in earnings (since Lincecum is potentially rolling into arby, every 25 year old right hander who K's guys and doesn't walk many has to be literally salivating). He'll probably get $4.25-$5.25 this go around and he'll be easily over $10 mil as a 6th year player considering the crazy numbers given to under 30 starters and what Lincecum figures to earn.

[tjfla]

FOX Sports - Free-agent first baseman Nick Johnson is drawing interest from a number of teams looking for offensive help.

Johnson has heard from the Giants, Mariners, Mets and even the Yankees since free agency began.


So does Loria give the OK to spend the money for the pick or do we go the Arthur Rhodes way and hear he has contract then NOT offer him arbitration and he signs a day later. Would be nice to gave a sandwich pick

[FishFanInPA]

or how about we actually sign him and keep him.

[tjfla]

or how about we actually sign him and keep him.

Well lets offer him a 1 yr 5 mil dollar deal and 1 of the other teams can offer a 3 yr 16 mil dollar deal

Bet he will jump all over our deal