2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Lee Stone]

Seattle wants crazy price still for Haniger and Minnesota wants Sandy but Mish and others think settle for Pablo.

Settle for Pablo? Lopez had a weak return from injury last September (awful even) but I think he has more potential than Alcantara.

Monte Harrison still whiffing at Puerto Rican winter league. Criollos de Cagua most recently had him batting 8th in the order. Chisholm was merely okay before leaving the team several days ago. Harrison may be through now too.

Miami offered Caleb and more for Rosario and more but Minnesota is waiting to see if they get a FA first

I don't find this impossible to believe ... but I would find it impossible to accept. C Smith, when on his game, is fairly elite.

[tjfla]

Giving up Caleb smith plus others for Eddie Rosario is idiotic. Just sign a fucking outfielder, no need to trade someone for an above average at best stop gap type guy. That makes 0 sense

Ya .275+ AVG 25+ HR and 30+ 2B is a stop gap

U guys do realize that next year SP on the 40 man(meaning likely will be called up eventually in 2021) are Sixto,Pablo,Jordan,Guzman,Holloway,Sandy,Neidert,G arrett,Rogers,Elieser,FA SP,Mejia

12 guys for 5 spots? Not saying ALL will start on ML roster but all could be up sometime in 2021 which is why Miami is willing to trade Caleb IF they get what they want

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Seattle wants crazy price still for Haniger and Minnesota wants Sandy but Mish and others think settle for Pablo.

Settle for Pablo? Lopez had a weak return from injury last September (awful even) but I think he has more potential than Alcantara.

Monte Harrison still whiffing at Puerto Rican winter league. Criollos de Cagua most recently had him batting 8th in the order. Chisholm was merely okay before leaving the team several days ago. Harrison may be through now too.

Settle for Pablo as in Minnesota wants Sandy but if we said Pablo they would take that. Miami isnt trading him they countered with Caleb or Urena and were told maybe lets see if we can get a FA SP first

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When say Caleb plus more for Rosario plus more I mean something like this

Minnesota-Caleb,Jerar,minor piece
Miami-Rosario,Another bat Rowson likes,non 40 man arm or IFA

Dont forget Rowson knows Minnesota

[Namaste]

for an above average at best stop gap type guy.

How fish16 describes 99% of major leaguers.

[tjfla]

Teams are trying to get us to overpay in trades. Its an issue we are gonna have for the next 2 years,I know its new to most of us but when u have a Top 5 system teams try to get u in all trades

Texas asked for Sandy and we countered with Urena and Jerar which would have been more than they got from CWS

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U have 6 teams fighting over 2 pitchers(Both LHP) so as soon as they sign u are gonna have those 4 teams still going after arms as well as lots more.

Marlins have 3 maybe 4(Urena is SP on some and RP on others) all who are cheap. Tanner Roark just got 12 million a year

NOT saying we are taking either of these guys but u have 2 guys in Rule 5 who could be #5 SP next year in Sterling Sharp and Zack Brown. This is why Rule 5 is so interesting this year for us-lots of solid arms in it who are 24/25 already. We are reportedly looking at Sharp and arms from Milwaukee,Houston and SD. Draft is at NOON!!!

We are also in on RP-Romo,Cishek,Joe Smith and Betances(he reportedly prefers Northeast teams like NY or Philly however)

[emkayseven]

Only a couple of those SPs are proven. We took our shot trading Gallen for Jazz. We shouldn't be trading any of the established SPs until others establish themselves as well. Trading any of Caleb/Pablo/Sandy for Rosario is a huge mistake IMO. Plenty of FA OFs out there if they're that hard up, or just stay internal with it.

[fish16]

How fish16 describes 99% of major leaguers.

It’s almost as if the vast majority of guys who have started for years and aren’t stars are merely above average

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Ya .275+ AVG 25+ HR and 30+ 2B is a stop gap

U guys do realize that next year SP on the 40 man(meaning likely will be called up eventually in 2021) are Sixto,Pablo,Jordan,Guzman,Holloway,Sandy,Neidert,G arrett,Rogers,Elieser,FA SP,Mejia

12 guys for 5 spots? Not saying ALL will start on ML roster but all could be up sometime in 2021 which is why Miami is willing to trade Caleb IF they get what they want

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Settle for Pablo as in Minnesota wants Sandy but if we said Pablo they would take that. Miami isnt trading him they countered with Caleb or Urena and were told maybe lets see if we can get a FA SP first

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When say Caleb plus more for Rosario plus more I mean something like this

Minnesota-Caleb,Jerar,minor piece
Miami-Rosario,Another bat Rowson likes,non 40 man arm or IFA

Dont forget Rowson knows Minnesota

Yes, that is a stop gap in the modern age of baseball, especially for a guy who is a free agent after 2021

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He had a 1.2 war last year. He’s a bad fielder. He doesn’t walk. He has a super low obp consistently. He is the definition of a dime in a dozen player. Low obp, bad fielding, guys who just hit a lot of hrs aren’t hard to find. You don’t give up Caleb smith for that. It’s not remotely special

[Nick]

Only a couple of those SPs are proven. We took our shot trading Gallen for Jazz. We shouldn't be trading any of the established SPs until others establish themselves as well. Trading any of Caleb/Pablo/Sandy for Rosario is a huge mistake IMO. Plenty of FA OFs out there if they're that hard up, or just stay internal with it.

Exactly.

[lou]

Looking more and more like we just gonna sign a FA OF like Dickerson or Calhoun. Reason they like Calhoun more is he costs less(they only looking for stopgap) and less interest. Dickerson has 6 teams AND prefers to go to a contender

U guys realize Berti,Brinson,Harold,Cooper,Dean all have options right? They all won't be on ML roster-all are RHB

This doesn't make sense to me because Calhoun pushes 2 of Cooper, Aguilar, and Ramirez to the bench and they need to see what they have there, and there is a 40 man crunch adding someone like that. Adding Calhoun, a Rule V, and two pitchers would cause them to have to DFA/trade likely Dean/Brinson/Ramirez/Dugger. Not a huge deal, but you'd like to see what those guys could do for 1 more year right?

U guys do realize that next year SP on the 40 man(meaning likely will be called up eventually in 2021) are Sixto,Pablo,Jordan,Guzman,Holloway,Sandy,Neidert,G arrett,Rogers,Elieser,FA SP,Mejia

Yea but they need to get passed the Super 2 deadline this year, and they can't be going in with Sandy, Pablo, and then Yamamoto, Hernandez, and Dugger if they trade Urena and Caleb. I mean, maybe they'd sign a veteran, but they have to get to July and I'm still not confident with two rotation spots to those later three. They can cumulatively be the 5th SP/bulk relievers.

I feel SP is a HOLD ALL until June 15th then reassess. I like Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, and working out Yamamoto/Hernandez to see if they have something before the bigger names come. That's a good SP plan for them!

Miami offered Caleb and more for Rosario and more but Minnesota is waiting to see if they get a FA first

I don't find this impossible to believe ... but I would find it impossible to accept. C Smith, when on his game, is fairly elite.

I agree. Rosario probably has a $30-35 million surplus value (2 years of control), and Caleb is easily in the $50s. I'd want a solid prospect and Astudillo in a 3-1 for Caleb Smith. Minnesota is bad at math if they think otherwise.

When say Caleb plus more for Rosario plus more I mean something like this

Minnesota-Caleb,Jerar,minor piece
Miami-Rosario,Another bat Rowson likes,non 40 man arm or IFA

Dont forget Rowson knows Minnesota

Ok, so if that's included:

Caleb, Jerar, outside top 35 prospect(s)

Rosario, Astudillo, Chris Vallimont, outside top 35 prospect(s)

Only a couple of those SPs are proven. We took our shot trading Gallen for Jazz. We shouldn't be trading any of the established SPs until others establish themselves as well. Trading any of Caleb/Pablo/Sandy for Rosario is a huge mistake IMO. Plenty of FA OFs out there if they're that hard up, or just stay internal with it.

Well they can trade one, but they'd immediately have to sign a FA to make up the innings. I would assume you sign Rosario if you trade for him - which might be OK depending on price. He can hit, but he wouldn't be my first choice.

Still, the easiest thing to do with SP is do nothing and get to the summer. Use your payroll for a longterm bat or absorb a bad contract for prospects. Keep it simple.

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He had a 1.2 war last year. He’s a bad fielder. He doesn’t walk. He has a super low obp consistently. He is the definition of a dime in a dozen player. Low obp, bad fielding, guys who just hit a lot of hrs aren’t hard to find. You don’t give up Caleb smith for that. It’s not remotely special

I agree you need more stuff than Rosario for Caleb, but Rosario is pretty good. Note the .273 BABIP in 2019 and has a 3 year split around a .850 OPS vs RHP. He has also been a well above average fielder in LF all years besides 2019, so what do you believe? I didn't watch him defensively enough to know if he is falling apart, but I do think he was a little hurt last year. He's pretty good, and a good age. I think he can be a solid 2.5+ WAR guy for a few years.

But Ozuna and Castellanos are better. Maybe Puig too if you believe Rosario's 2019 fielding is the baseball versus his career.

This shouldn't be plan A, B, or C, but it could work depending on the package.

[Erick]

Rosario’s a good player.

[fish16]

This doesn't make sense to me because Calhoun pushes 2 of Cooper, Aguilar, and Ramirez to the bench and they need to see what they have there, and there is a 40 man crunch adding someone like that. Adding Calhoun, a Rule V, and two pitchers would cause them to have to DFA/trade likely Dean/Brinson/Ramirez/Dugger. Not a huge deal, but you'd like to see what those guys could do for 1 more year right?



Yea but they need to get passed the Super 2 deadline this year, and they can't be going in with Sandy, Pablo, and then Yamamoto, Hernandez, and Dugger if they trade Urena and Caleb. I mean, maybe they'd sign a veteran, but they have to get to July and I'm still not confident with two rotation spots to those later three. They can cumulatively be the 5th SP/bulk relievers.

I feel SP is a HOLD ALL until June 15th then reassess. I like Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, and working out Yamamoto/Hernandez to see if they have something before the bigger names come. That's a good SP plan for them!



I agree. Rosario probably has a $30-35 million surplus value (2 years of control), and Caleb is easily in the $50s. I'd want a solid prospect and Astudillo in a 3-1 for Caleb Smith. Minnesota is bad at math if they think otherwise.




Ok, so if that's included:

Caleb, Jerar, outside top 35 prospect(s)

Rosario, Astudillo, Chris Vallimont, outside top 35 prospect(s)




Well they can trade one, but they'd immediately have to sign a FA to make up the innings. I would assume you sign Rosario if you trade for him - which might be OK depending on price. He can hit, but he wouldn't be my first choice.

Still, the easiest thing to do with SP is do nothing and get to the summer. Use your payroll for a longterm bat or absorb a bad contract for prospects. Keep it simple.

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I agree you need more stuff than Rosario for Caleb, but Rosario is pretty good. Note the .273 BABIP in 2019 and has a 3 year split around a .850 OPS vs RHP. He has also been a well above average fielder in LF all years besides 2019, so what do you believe? I didn't watch him defensively enough to know if he is falling apart, but I do think he was a little hurt last year. He's pretty good, and a good age. I think he can be a solid 2.5+ WAR guy for a few years.

But Ozuna and Castellanos are better. Maybe Puig too if you believe Rosario's 2019 fielding is the baseball versus his career.

This shouldn't be plan A, B, or C, but it could work depending on the package.

A 2.5 war guy for a few years? That’s not terribly hard to find? Why trade smith for two years of a 2.5 war guy rather than keep smith and just sign a guy who can get you 2-2.5 war. It makes 0 sense. It’s not that he’s a bad player, it’s that trading an asset for 2 years of him is idiotic rather than keeping him and signing one of the 5-10 good outfielders available

[Lee Stone]

Rosario’s a good player.

True ... His projection for 2020 is not dissimilar to Castellanos or Ozuna.

[emkayseven]

I like Rosario a lot. I don't mind trading for him, but I wouldn't trade an SP which is what Minnesota needs, so it makes no sense to me. And, kind of like what Lee is saying (I think) above...I'd rather give up nothing and sign Castellanos or Ozuna.

[lou]

A 2.5 war guy for a few years? That’s not terribly hard to find? Why trade smith for two years of a 2.5 war guy rather than keep smith and just sign a guy who can get you 2-2.5 war. It makes 0 sense. It’s not that he’s a bad player, it’s that trading an asset for 2 years of him is idiotic rather than keeping him and signing one of the 5-10 good outfielders available

75 hitters averaged a 2.5 WAR last 3 seasons. 38 pitchers. That is not a lot. I think a 2.5 WAR player is VERY hard to find and I will be VERY happy if a few of the Marlins players turn into that.

I'm not disagreeing with you signing another guy might be a smarter idea, but Rosario isn't a shlub. That's all I'm saying.

[fish16]

75 hitters averaged a 2.5 WAR last 3 seasons. 38 pitchers. That is not a lot. I think a 2.5 WAR player is VERY hard to find and I will be VERY happy if a few of the Marlins players turn into that.

I'm not disagreeing with you signing another guy might be a smarter idea, but Rosario isn't a shlub. That's all I'm saying.

Absolutely he’s not a shlub, fantastic word btw, I’m just saying it just makes no sense to trade a good cheap pitcher for him when there are guys you can just sign who can give you similar if not better production without costing you a valuable asset like smith. I think saying 75 hitters averaged a 2.5 war over the last 3 years would kind of lend credence to my point that he is merely above average and that you can find guys to give you that production somewhat easily. That’s 2.5 guys on average per team who did that over the last 3 years.

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I view 4 war average as kind of the differentiating point between above average guys and guys who start to become in the star category for me

[fauowls44]

Joe Frisaro
@JoeFrisaro
An under the radar #Marlins pitcher attracting trade interest is Elieser Hernandez. The 24 yr old can start, relieve. He throws strikes and is controllable for five more years. MIA could net a big league or close to big league ready outfielder for him. #WinterMeetings