2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Lee Stone]

$17 million a year isn't star money.

To the Yankees or Dodgers, definitely not. The problem with much of what I'm reading here is that apples are not being compared to apples. The Marlins see $17 million the same way those others see $50M - and they have to due to revenue. A giant contract for the Marlins should net better than a hit-only non-athlete like Castellanos. I didn't even like tha Aguilar contract for just a few million.

[Nick]

And if he does, god bless you Nick. You killed it.

Thank You.

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$17 million a year isn't star money.

To the Yankees or Dodgers, definitely not. The problem with much of what I'm reading here is that apples are not being compared to apples. The Marlins see $17 million the same way those others see $50M - and they have to due to revenue. A giant contract for the Marlins should net better than a hit-only non-athlete like Castellanos. I didn't even like tha Aguilar contract for just a few million.

The problem is we don't know how much money they are willing to spend. Last year the league average payroll was $115 million. Let's say they don't get to league average, but they get to $90 million which is still well below average. As of right now we could afford to add 2 maybe 3 players in the $15 million range and still fall in that $90 million range for 2020. I can't imagine someone buying a team and saying we're going to be content on being in the bottom 2 or 3 in payroll every year, and then also expect to compete for a World Series and grow their fan base. They have to at least try to build a sustainable winner here, and you don't do that having the lowest payroll in the majors every year, maybe you catch a little bit of magic and have a season like 2003, but it's not sustainable unless you are continuing to invest in the team, and I'm not even saying outspending everybody, I'm saying having a below average payroll instead of being last in payroll every year.

[lou]

$17 million a year isn't star money.

To the Yankees or Dodgers, definitely not. The problem with much of what I'm reading here is that apples are not being compared to apples. The Marlins see $17 million the same way those others see $50M - and they have to due to revenue. A giant contract for the Marlins should net better than a hit-only non-athlete like Castellanos. I didn't even like tha Aguilar contract for just a few million.

News flash Lee - the Marlins play in the same professional sports league as the Yankees and Dodgers

And complaining about Aguilar is really terrible as it's basically an irrelevant move that could work out

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The problem is we don't know how much money they are willing to spend. Last year the league average payroll was $115 million. Let's say they don't get to league average, but they get to $90 million which is still well below average. As of right now we could afford to add 2 maybe 3 players in the $15 million range and still fall in that $90 million range for 2020. I can't imagine someone buying a team and saying we're going to be content on being in the bottom 2 or 3 in payroll every year, and then also expect to compete for a World Series and grow their fan base. They have to at least try to build a sustainable winner here, and you don't do that having the lowest payroll in the majors every year, maybe you catch a little bit of magic and have a season like 2003, but it's not sustainable unless you are continuing to invest in the team, and I'm not even saying outspending everybody, I'm saying having a below average payroll instead of being last in payroll every year.

Right. They can afford 3 major free agents for $50 million combined right now and come in 21st in payroll (2019 opening day numbers). That includes already getting Villar and Aguilar, and keeping Urena, Rojas, and Conley for $12 million. AND Chen's dead money.

Not sure why we can't hold them to be 21st on average (which I'm not arguing they should do this year either, I think something like $80-85 and front loading Castellanos/Ozuna, or eating Myers money, etc. is appropriate and see how the kids work out for 2 years before really opening the spending in 2022).

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On my commute I was thinking about this though which was mentioned above, and it makes a lot of sense to me:

Miami - Myers, $15+ million, TBD 3-4 prospects, one of which is at least a Neidert/Cabrera/Scott
San Diego - David Price
Boston - 2 outside top 20 prospects for the major salary relief. Pure salary dump for them.

Marlins absorb the payroll for prospects and get a high upside flyer even if expensive, San Diego gets a win now pitcher, Boston clears their books to fight another day.

San Diego has enough juice with prospects to get it done. This works out for everybody in theory.

[fish16]

News flash Lee - the Marlins play in the same professional sports league as the Yankees and Dodgers

And complaining about Aguilar is really terrible as it's basically an irrelevant move that could work out

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Right. They can afford 3 major free agents for $50 million combined right now and come in 21st in payroll (2019 opening day numbers). That includes already getting Villar and Aguilar, and keeping Urena, Rojas, and Conley for $12 million. AND Chen's dead money.

Not sure why we can't hold them to be 21st on average (which I'm not arguing they should do this year either, I think something like $80-85 and front loading Castellanos/Ozuna, or eating Myers money, etc. is appropriate and see how the kids work out for 2 years before really opening the spending in 2022).

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On my commute I was thinking about this though which was mentioned above, and it makes a lot of sense to me:

Miami - Myers, $15+ million, TBD 3-4 prospects, one of which is at least a Neidert/Cabrera/Scott
San Diego - David Price
Boston - 2 outside top 20 prospects for the major salary relief. Pure salary dump for them.

Marlins absorb the payroll for prospects and get a high upside flyer even if expensive, San Diego gets a win now pitcher, Boston clears their books to fight another day.

San Diego has enough juice with prospects to get it done. This works out for everybody in theory.

They play in the same league but there is also the reality that we don’t have the resources that they do because baseball has no salary cap. So while for teams with league average payrolls let alone the Yankees and dodgers, 17 million might not need to give you star production. When you’re a team like the marlins, you better be getting star leve production if you are going to spend 17 million on a guy for the next 4 years. So while obviously they should be spending more in a perfect world, the world ain’t fucking perfect and they need to get the most fucking value out of every single dollar they spend. That is especially important and easier to do with the way team control works for a players first 6 years of his career. So the question isn’t whether a guy like castellanos is worth 17 million a year to a league average team let alone the dodgers or Yankees, the question is whether we would be getting the most possible value we can be out of 17 million in payroll for the next four years. And the answer is no because he isn’t a star and outfield is one of if not the position in our farm system that we have the most depth in.

So the move is to sign a guy like Dickerson for a year or two to a mid level contract, wait at least another year to evaluate the outfielders in the system to see if you can get a ton of value for at least 3 years of a prospect at the league minimum, and save the true huge money deals for legitimate stars down the line. Doing it the other way might make you a contender slightly earlier but it also would severely diminish the sustainability of the success that we would hopefully experience down the line

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Also for all the discussions of didi we had during the year it would seem that the league agreed with me that he isn’t anything close to a star that you give huge money to over 3+ years

[Nick]

Also for all the discussions of didi we had during the year it would seem that the league agreed with me that he isn’t anything close to a star that you give huge money to over 3+ years

to be fair, I think most of that discussion happened before Didi had even played in 2019 due to injury. Didi had a disappointing 2019 it affected his value, it happens.

[fish16]

to be fair, I think most of that discussion happened before Didi had even played in 2019 due to injury. Didi had a disappointing 2019 it affected his value, it happens.

Most of my argument was he was a career .718 ops guy coming off Tommy John. Lou specifically said at points that the injury wouldn’t affect the value in his opinion

[lou]

They play in the same league but there is also the reality that we don’t have the resources that they do because baseball has no salary cap. So while for teams with league average payrolls let alone the Yankees and dodgers, 17 million might not need to give you star production. When you’re a team like the marlins, you better be getting star leve production if you are going to spend 17 million on a guy for the next 4 years. So while obviously they should be spending more in a perfect world, the world ain’t fucking perfect and they need to get the most fucking value out of every single dollar they spend. That is especially important and easier to do with the way team control works for a players first 6 years of his career. So the question isn’t whether a guy like castellanos is worth 17 million a year to a league average team let alone the dodgers or Yankees, the question is whether we would be getting the most possible value we can be out of 17 million in payroll for the next four years. And the answer is no because he isn’t a star and outfield is one of if not the position in our farm system that we have the most depth in.

So the move is to sign a guy like Dickerson for a year or two to a mid level contract, wait at least another year to evaluate the outfielders in the system to see if you can get a ton of value for at least 3 years of a prospect at the league minimum, and save the true huge money deals for legitimate stars down the line. Doing it the other way might make you a contender slightly earlier but it also would severely diminish the sustainability of the success that we would hopefully experience down the line

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Also for all the discussions of didi we had during the year it would seem that the league agreed with me that he isn’t anything close to a star that you give huge money to over 3+ years

You mean Yelich - which you said was a good trade despite it clearly not being one from the day it happened, and then it got even worse with Brinson failing and Yelich improving

Their payroll is nothing right now - for 4 years. $17 million for 4 doesn't matter. HOWEVER, $17 for 4 starting in 22/23 WOULD matter. Given the club controlled options coming, you answered your own question - are the Marlins getting value out of this spot as they only need 3-4 free agents? The answer is yes. A right handed middle of the order hitter is a need for the next few years.

I like Dickerson for 1-2 years to flip at the deadline, but that is a different role than what Castellanos/Ozuna/Puig/Myers salary dump would be to this team.

And Didi got fucking hurt and didn't recover. You get -0- points for this, so if you think that makes you smart, it doesn't. It makes you dumb for trying to suggest his injury doesn't matter.

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to be fair, I think most of that discussion happened before Didi had even played in 2019 due to injury. Didi had a disappointing 2019 it affected his value, it happens.

Yep, he doesn't get it. He's getting his ass absolutely kicked today and keeps drowning himself

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Most of my argument was he was a career .718 ops guy coming off Tommy John. Lou specifically said at points that the injury wouldn’t affect the value in his opinion

FAKE NEWS. DIDN'T COME BACK HEALTHY. AND SHOW HIS 3.5+ WAR PACE OF LAST 4 YEARS. DISPLAYED A 2 WAR PACE.

[sports24/7]

Mish said last night that he didn't think they'd end up trading Caleb Smith. I would if they can get something decent back.

I'm not sure I completely understand trying to trade Urena. I mean, I get that there's a numbers crunch, but you're probably not getting much back for him. Why sell low? It's not like his stock is going to drop much. I'd rather hope he can bring his stock back up again a bit, and see if you can milk some more value out of a return for him. Even if he goes to the pen, he could probably improve his stock.

[Lee Stone]

News flash Lee - the Marlins play in the same professional sports league as the Yankees and Dodgers

Same game maybe, but Yanks, Dodgers, Red Sox play in a different league. TB, Miami, and Oakland operate with about a third of the revenue and are forced to operate differently. Corey Dickerson and Brad Miller are cheap options that are capable of delivering big results.

[fish16]

You’ve literally already said in the past when I brought up the injury that he’s a ss and it’s not a big deal to you. Don’t act like it all of a sudden changed the entire argument. The entire discussion came with the knowledge of him coming off Tommy John surgery

Also, his .718 opa last year is not like it’s this enormous drop off to his career ops. He’s 29 years old with a career ops of .742, and has never had an obp of over .335 and has now had 5 different years of an obp of less than .320 where he had 270+ ab’s. You overrated him, like I said for months. It’s not like this entire discussion didn’t come with the knowledge that he was coming off Tommy John surgery

Edit- actually confused Lou with namaste who said that you can come back from Tommy John with a strong arm but the point remains that the entire discussion was with the knowledge that he is coming off Tommy John surgery

[tjfla]

Mish said last night that he didn't think they'd end up trading Caleb Smith. I would if they can get something decent back.

I'm not sure I completely understand trying to trade Urena. I mean, I get that there's a numbers crunch, but you're probably not getting much back for him. Why sell low? It's not like his stock is going to drop much. I'd rather hope he can bring his stock back up again a bit, and see if you can milk some more value out of a return for him. Even if he goes to the pen, he could probably improve his stock.

Ya lots of teams are calling on Caleb but mostly just check in stuff. Teams are shooting for MadBum,Ryu-he isnt as popular as u would think.

The Urena situation is Miami wants an innings eater they dont trust Urena. He is popular around the league cause some teams see him as a RP/CL(even tho terrible LY) and others see him as a cheap SP option. Soon as the bigger names start coming off board someone is gonna offer a FV45/40 type and either IFA $,draft pick or another FV40 arm and we will deal him. Soon as we deal him wouldnt be surprise to see us go hard after a Roark,Teheran,Wade Miley.Gio Gonzalez,KBO guy,Ivan Nova on a 1 yr or 1 yr plus option at 7.5-9 million a year. Guys who throw 160+ innings a year

They can use them now and IF the young guys are ready by July trade the SP and if not he is around for 2021 till they are

So long story short. FO/Mattingly doesnt think Urena is durable and want a different innings eater

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News flash Lee - the Marlins play in the same professional sports league as the Yankees and Dodgers

Same game maybe, but Yanks, Dodgers, Red Sox play in a different league. TB, Miami, and Oakland operate with about a third of the revenue and are forced to operate differently. Corey Dickerson and Brad Miller are cheap options that are capable of delivering big results.

Marlins would like Dickerson but like most vets they are waiting for the contender to call first. Guys 32 and older first choice isnt Baltimore/Miami/Detroit/KC

This is why Boras is so funny when he complains about payroll. He cries about crappy teams not spending cash but dosent make a peep when crappy teams want good older players and they are told well maybe IF no WS contenders are interested we will consider u. Then if they are instead of getting 2/20 or something they get 1/4 million

[Nick]

9 years / $324 million for Cole, to the Yankees.

Holy Hell.

[fish16]

Also not quite sure how I’m “getting my ass kicked” today because you are taking my post out of context in regards to price and Castillo. I wasn’t saying taking on their entire contract, I said taking on some of it while getting some prospects out of it as well if the Red Sox wanted to bite some of their money if it enabled them to be able to sign betts to an extension

[rmc523]

Cole is a superstar pitcher, castellanos is an above average hitter who sucks at fielding. It’s not all that complicated to build a team. You don’t just throw money at above average players for star money because you happen to have cleared the books. The books are clean because we waited out/dealt contracts like the one you’re suggesting we give

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The only one suggesting we try to dink out 81 wins is the guy suggesting we sell out the now clear salary sheet for the next few years for the first available above average hitter. You continue to idiotically suggest paying huge Money over long years for above average hitters simply because this is the first offeseason in which we’ve cleared the books.
It’s idiotic. Wait for the big name and continue to build from within rather than continuing to add Prado/Chen/Ziegler type contracts on a team that is destined to be a small market team for mediocre/ above average players. It shows absolutely 0 vision and reality for how a consistent contender will inevitably be built down here

You're assuming a bigger name would sign here.

If Boston eats a little money I’d be interested in a price and rusney Castillo. Price would be a great veteran innings eater and Castillo is worth another big league shot. Not sure if they are just looking to cut money or would want actual prospects in return but price would be an actual good pitcher on top of saving them some salary

Dude? So you won't pay Castellanos 15-17/year over the next 4 years, but you're willing to trade to get a declining, injured pitcher making $96M over the next 3 years (32/year) and a guy making $14.2M next year who hasn't played in the majors since 2016?????

So 28 year old hitters for something like 4/$68 - NO

34 year old pitchers making 3/$66 - ..... YES?

Castellanos has out WAR'd Price last 2 years.

What a disaster.

It's 3/96! Not 66!

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Side note, the Cubs apparently aren't going to discuss an extension with Rizzo this offseason.

[fish16]

You're assuming a bigger name would sign here.



Dude? So you won't pay Castellanos 15-17/year over the next 4 years, but you're willing to trade to get a declining, injured pitcher making $96M over the next 3 years (32/year) and a guy making $14.2M next year who hasn't played in the majors since 2016?????



It's 3/96! Not 66!

If they foot some of the bill and prices Medicals check out then yes. If they eat 10-15 a year for price and throw in an attractive prospect I’d gladly take on one year of Castillo’s contract. Castillo can be a 1 year guy whose contract we eat for prospects and if prices medicals check out he is still a very good pitcher when healthy and eats a ton of innings. Not playing in that division and that ballpark will also help him out tremendously and he would be a great middle of the rotation stabilizing force for a few years while we see what we have in the young pitchers.

If you can make prices deal let’s say, 3 years 50-60 Million or so, eat Castillo’s contract for a year, and get an attractive group of prospects out of it as well as not give up much of long term value, id be all over that.

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And that would obviously only be a possibility if the Sox make the evaluation that they need to get rid of salary in order to re-sign betts, which has become increasingly a question mark over the course of the last year