2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[fish16]

Pineda is turning 31 and has pitched 250 innings in the last 3 seasons. He's good when he's healthy for sure, but is an ENORMOUS risk. Haven't we seen this with Volquez already?

Castellanos is turning 28 and has hit .295/.345/.515 the last 2 fully healthy seasons, averaging a shade under 3 WAR despite the defense.

This isn't remotely close and not worth my time.

Pineda’s last 3 full healthy seasons: 3.6 war, 3.2 war, and 2.7 war in just 26 starts after coming back from Tommy John a little after the start of the year. He’s a career 3.67 fip and 3.50 xfip and spent most of his career in a little league stadium in New York. He would be the perfect veteran addition for a staff that has tons of prospect depth but could use a consistent veteran anchor for a few years.

Castellanos is a liability defensively, would require at least a 3 year deal at a position we have a ton of prospect depth at, and has 6 less war than Pineda despite having the same amount of years in the majors. It is nothing like volquez other than the injury history because Pineda is a significantly better pitcher than volquez was. Volquez was an exceedingly mediocre pitcher who had two good years in the big leagues and everyone seemed to base their opinion of him based on those years despite the fact that he was a career 4.32 fip and 4.29 xfip

[lou]

Pineda’s last 3 full healthy seasons: 3.6 war, 3.2 war, and 2.7 war in just 26 starts after coming back from Tommy John a little after the start of the year. He’s a career 3.67 fip and 3.50 xfip and spent most of his career in a little league stadium in New York. He would be the perfect veteran addition for a staff that has tons of prospect depth but could use a consistent veteran anchor for a few years.

Castellanos is a liability defensively, would require at least a 3 year deal at a position we have a ton of prospect depth at, and has 6 less war than Pineda despite having the same amount of years in the majors. It is nothing like volquez other than the injury history because Pineda is a significantly better pitcher than volquez was. Volquez was an exceedingly mediocre pitcher who had two good years in the big leagues and everyone seemed to base their opinion of him based on those years despite the fact that he was a career 4.32 fip and 4.29 xfip

You really want to use Pineda's 2015 season as an argument to why the 31 year old version of him will be good post major injuries? You really want to do that?

Versus the safety in a stud bat who might be a 3 WAR floor regardless of defense, turning 28?

Yea, no.

[fish16]

You really want to use Pineda's 2015 season as an argument to why the 31 year old version of him will be good post major injuries? You really want to do that?

Versus the safety in a stud bat who might be a 3 WAR floor regardless of defense, turning 28?

Yea, no.

Ya I’ll take the guy who consistently puts up around 3 war in the rotation when healthy for two years rather than give 4 years at 15+ a year to a defensive liability who plays at a position where we have the most prospect depth in our organization both close to the big leagues and a year or two away. You’re essentially signing yourself up for 4 years of a defensive liability at 15+ million a year rather than waiting a year for prospects that will put up similar wars for the minimum and under team control.

It’s not signing castellanos that’s the problem, it’s signing him given the context of the prospects in our organization and whether you are committing significant money 4 years down the line to a guy whose production can likely be matched by one of the 5-6 really good outfield prospects that we have that can give similar if not better production for the minimum as soon as the second or third year of that deal

[lou]

Ya I’ll take the guy who consistently puts up around 3 war in the rotation when healthy for two years rather than give 4 years at 15+ a year to a defensive liability who plays at a position where we have the most prospect depth in our organization both close to the big leagues and a year or two away. You’re essentially signing yourself up for 4 years of a defensive liability at 15+ million a year rather than waiting a year for prospects that will put up similar wars for the minimum and under team control.

It’s not signing castellanos that’s the problem, it’s signing him given the context of the prospects in our organization and whether you are committing significant money 4 years down the line to a guy whose production can likely be matched by one of the 5-6 really good outfield prospects that we have that can give similar if not better production for the minimum as soon as the second or third year of that deal

"when healthy" - big big big big big qualifier right there

defensive liability compared with, is an ascending bat with likely a 2+ WAR floor and 4+ WAR offensive upside despite the defense

where you can't list a better right handed bat in the organization except maybe Anderson so suggesting prospect depth is false. They need a longterm stud right handed bat. It's a real need.

Pineda would be good 1/$8 FOR SURE, and a vesting option for $12 - I can buy that.

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Frankly, signing Castellanos/Ozuna for 4 for LF, and then trading an entire good prospect OF for 1 elite CF - Bleday/Sanchez, Monte, and Jerar - in a 3-1 trade makes a ton of sense to me.

Throw in Yamamoto too so they can really make amends for the Yelich trade.

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Alfaro, Whoever
Lewin, Cooper/Aguilar
Diaz
Jazz, Berti/Rojas
Anderson, Villar/Backup FA
Castellanos/Ozuna
Stud CF in trade for say Bleday/Monte/And Jerar, Sierra/Brinson/Miller/VVM
J. Sanchez,

That offensive team is awesome on paper

[rmc523]

Ya I’ll take the guy who consistently puts up around 3 war in the rotation when healthy for two years rather than give 4 years at 15+ a year to a defensive liability who plays at a position where we have the most prospect depth in our organization both close to the big leagues and a year or two away. You’re essentially signing yourself up for 4 years of a defensive liability at 15+ million a year rather than waiting a year for prospects that will put up similar wars for the minimum and under team control.

It’s not signing castellanos that’s the problem, it’s signing him given the context of the prospects in our organization and whether you are committing significant money 4 years down the line to a guy whose production can likely be matched by one of the 5-6 really good outfield prospects that we have that can give similar if not better production for the minimum as soon as the second or third year of that deal

If you sign a guy like Castellanos, you can then trade one of those prospects for a controlled something else you need.

We also don't have a surefire "Harper"-esque prospect, so sure you can project, but you don't know.

[rmc523]

The White Sox claimed Tayron Guerrero.

[fish16]

The White Sox claimed Tayron Guerrero.

thank god. read an article yesterday that we are prioritizing strike throwing out of bullpen guys. been asking for that for years now. So sick of these guys out of the pen with stuff but no control. The least valuable thing in the game is a bullpen arm who cant consistently throw strikes.

[fish16]

If you sign a guy like Castellanos, you can then trade one of those prospects for a controlled something else you need.

We also don't have a surefire "Harper"-esque prospect, so sure you can project, but you don't know.

in this scenario id be fine with it then. I'm just clearly not a fan of castellanos. I think he'd be a great DH and a great addition 2 years from now if we are a bat away, but as of now I just dont view him as worth the investment. I can see why Lou likes him obviously, the bat is very solid, i'd just rather not invest long term money in guys who arent stars. Just a personal preference as to how i prefer to do rebuilds. I'd prefer to sign 1-2 year guys this offseason if we arent going to get the top notch talent like Cole and rendon, which we wont. I'd rather just keep making smart short term investments on 1-2 year deals who can help improve us in the short term while not investing long term money that can be used more impactfully on stars down the line. I'd keep signing guys to 1-2 year deals until we can finally convince a truly transcendent player to sign here. The guy im looking at is lindor.

If we can give Castellanos a bunch of money on a 2 year deal or 2 year deal with a 3rd year player or mutual option, id be all for it. Just dont like going over 2 years right now in the rebuild.

[tjfla]

thank god. read an article yesterday that we are prioritizing strike throwing out of bullpen guys. been asking for that for years now. So sick of these guys out of the pen with stuff but no control. The least valuable thing in the game is a bullpen arm who cant consistently throw strikes.

We got 3 more in minors who are just like Tayron

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Romo is down to 3 teams with Marlins being 1 of them!!!!!

1 yr and 1 year option is what he wants and will make decision next week per Jon Heyman

Marlins have also called on Kevin Pillar. 1 of 8 teams

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Lol pineda for two years is too much at 10-12 per year but you’re gonna give defensive liabilities and above average bats like castellanos 15 million a year despite cheap veteran bats being available every year. Sounds good

Marlins have offers out to a number of SP. ALL are 1 yr OR 1 yr plus option for between 7.5 to 9 million a year so 2/15-8 million

Offering ALOT of guys 1 yr plus option(SP/RP)

[fish16]

We got 3 more in minors who are just like Tayron

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Romo is down to 3 teams with Marlins being 1 of them!!!!!

1 yr and 1 year option is what he wants and will make decision next week per Jon Heyman

Marlins have also called on Kevin Pillar. 1 of 8 teams

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Marlins have offers out to a number of SP. ALL are 1 yr OR 1 yr plus option for between 7.5 to 9 million a year so 2/15-8 million

Offering ALOT of guys 1 yr plus option(SP/RP)

romo would be a great addition again. loved his energy and clubhouse presence when he was here. I think a 1 and 1 for a SP is necessary. We have a ton of depth in the SP category but a stable veteran is needed definitely for next year and maybe even the year following just to make sure we're not pushing the young guys too hard. now that pineda is gone (he was my number 1 choice), id be all over teheran or porcello or wacha or ivan nova or someone like tht. No one who is a world beater but just a guy who can be a decent mid-back end of the rotation for a year and possibly a second.

My ideal offseason at this point given that we definitely wont sign cole or rendon is a guy like dickerson, then a SP for a 1+1 deal, and then 2-3 veteran relievers who can provide stability in the bullpen while we inevitably cycle thru our prospect relievers in the rest of our bullpen for the year. I think if we cant get a guy like rendon or cole, we go after stop gaps who allow us to evaluate our prospects while improving our overall win total slightly and keep us competitive into september. That's while calling up guys like Neidert, Sixto, Cabrera, Monte, Sanchez, maybe Jazz, and a few others over the course of the year.

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gio gonzalez also would be a guy id like to add to that list of potential SP options. I just want an innings eater. We have SP depth for next year but we really just need another 150-200 innings that we can pencil in to be eaten so that we dont rush guys. We have depth but we need to be careful and not rush guys in a meaningless year.

Our rotation next year will definitely include Caleb, Sandy, and Lopez given that he is healthy. We then have guys like Yamamoto, Urena if he's still around, and then prospects such as neidert. but we can definitely use a stop gap guy or maybe even 2 especially for next year. Sixto is probably ML ready but we should give him another few months in AAA for both service time reasons as well as just building arm strength. We just need a stop gap, because the following year Neidert should 100% be ready to either make it or break it in the rotation, as should Cabrera, Guzman if they keep him as a starter, and then you'll start to get the second wave of guys like Rogers and Garrett at some point in 2021,.

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and the more i look into available guys for the outfield and what they would expect in free agency, I think corey dickerson is the obvious choice. He has a career OPS that is .832 vs Castellanos .797 and dickerson would only be expected to get a 1, maybe 2 max contract. That fits in with our need for an OF along with my desire not to spend big both in terms of money and years on a non star. I think he could give similar production to castellanos offensively while not taking up money 3 years into the future and still allowing us to consider a guy like lindor in a few years.

[tjfla]

Oakland is another team in on Romo per Morosi and he loves the Bay Area. Good news is we are in on 3 or 4 other arms but would love Romo. Might be time to dust off old Steve Cishek jerseys

Jordan Lyles just got 2/16 from Texas so the 7.5-9 per year Miami is offering to guys is gonna be MLB standard for SP this year

If we get a SP Urena is probably gone. They want an innings eater and while they like Urena as seen in years past Mattingly doesn't really trust Urena to do that. Plus alot of teams like him-some as a SP and some as a RP

MY #1 choice is Tanner Roark. Not fancy but will give u 180 innings and if u wanna bring up young guys he has no issue being a LR or in pen. Some of these other guys never have been in the pen even tho they prolly could

[fauowls44]

We got 3 more in minors who are just like Tayron

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Romo is down to 3 teams with Marlins being 1 of them!!!!!

1 yr and 1 year option is what he wants and will make decision next week per Jon Heyman

Marlins have also called on Kevin Pillar. 1 of 8 teams

- - - - - - - - - -



Marlins have offers out to a number of SP. ALL are 1 yr OR 1 yr plus option for between 7.5 to 9 million a year so 2/15-8 million

Offering ALOT of guys 1 yr plus option(SP/RP)

I would love to get Romo back.

As for Pillar, I think we can do better. He can play CF which is a plus, but he doesn't get on base enough for my liking. If they are focusing on LH bats, I would rather sign Dickerson, Calhoun, or even the Japanese OF.

[tjfla]

I would love to get Romo back.

As for Pillar, I think we can do better. He can play CF which is a plus, but he doesn't get on base enough for my liking. If they are focusing on LH bats, I would rather sign Dickerson, Calhoun, or even the Japanese OF.

Same. They are looking at Romo,Cishek,Betances,Yimi Garcia,few others

I dont think they get Pillar just doing homework. They are looking at about 10 bats-business will pick up starting Monday for bat and arms. Heyman says Romo will pick in few days

[Namaste]

Romo had a 4.68 xFIP in 2019 (worst of his career by far). I’m not as excited about him potentially coming back as you guys.

[lou]

No surprise here but Padres want to dump Myers - https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-2019...etings-preview

I really like the idea of raiding their farm system and bailing them out of the cash. Their best hitting prospect left (Trammell) is a CF and MLB ready post Super-2 deadline.

Mejia, Hedges
Hosmer, Naylor
Profar, Garcia
Tatis Jr.
Machado, Kinsler/France
Pham
Margot
Grisham, Cordero

This seems like a good opportunity to absorb a lot of Myers money and buy prospects