2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Lee Stone]

But if they don't spend, this team is going nowhere...

Like Tampa Bay and Oakland? Those are the teams that Miami needs to emulate, not Atlanta or Houston.

[Nick]

But if they don't spend, this team is going nowhere...

Like Tampa Bay and Oakland? Those are the teams that Miami needs to emulate, not Atlanta or Houston.

If you want to wait another decade to make the playoffs, we can definitely emulate Tampa and Oakland. Loria left this organization in absolute shambles, it's gonna take more extreme measures to right this ship quickly.

[tjfla]

Yep. They absolutely need to ADD two stud 5+ WAR players for this to work. I think the Padres is a good example - they signed Machado a year early. White Sox too. They were in on Machado and Bryce, but they just couldn't pull it off. Those teams get it.

Castellanos/Wheeler type signing isn't this money over 4 years. They can still sign (or trade) for 1-2 Machados and 1-2 more Castellanos/Wheelers and spend on a $15-20 million a year veteran right now. And they are going to have to do that to compete.

Which is why RENDON or COLE is PERFECT this season if they can somehow pull that off, and then add the other guys in 2021. Which is presumably signing a SP, and then trading SP depth for another younger impact bat to round out whatever they need. I really hope Cole wins the World series, World series MVP, and Cy-Young, so he's accomplished everything on the bucket list and wants to max out money, in a NL pitching environment to shoot for the hall.

They have options. They can wait another year for the big acquisitions. I'm just saying, right now, they owe it to everyone to try and field a 70+ win team versus a 55+ win team. It won't hurt short or longterm.

But if they don't spend, this team is going nowhere and will be as good as the McCutchen pirates at most.

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Absorbing that money to get prospects/IFA cash would be fantastic.

I could live with a Castellanos, Desmond (recoup prospects/IFA/pick), N. Walker, "another bench infielder," Romo-type, and keep Urena/Conley offseason.

Also, if you can give them more pitching and get a contract extension, I'll roll the dice Jon Gray becomes a top 10 SP out of the mountains.

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*Desmond was a relatively neutral defender in LF last year and his season numbers tanked dramatically because pathetic in CF. Just saying.

Not saying they are getting Desmond but am saying they dont really like the FA bat market which is why they are looking at the trade market. They like Castellanos but think he will want more than 3/40 or so

Desmond would cost a AAA RP or something and prolly get another prospect back and a 1S pick in 2020

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But if they don't spend, this team is going nowhere...

Like Tampa Bay and Oakland? Those are the teams that Miami needs to emulate, not Atlanta or Houston.

Problem with that is TB and Oakland have been doing it for 8 years now while Denbo has had 2. I love what TB and Oakland do-hit IFA/draft hard but remember they have been doing it awhile not last 2 years.

They are actually trying to emulate SD. Problem with it is SD got into the IFA/Draft market when u could spend anything u wanted alot harder to do it now

[rmc523]

There are some reports out there that Rendon could be open to a shorter term, higher AAV deal.

[tjfla]

There are some reports out there that Rendon could be open to a shorter term, higher AAV deal.

Make him a crazy offer and see. Rendon is best player out there and solves 3B/RF for next 4 years

[tjfla]

MiLB gave out its Gold Gloves and 2 Marlins got them. This is ALL of minors not just 1 level

CF-VVM
RF-Jesus Sanchez

[Nick]

We saw a little bit of trying Sanchez in CF last year in AAA. I'm hoping that once Harrison gets called up we give him a real shot at CF every day in AAA. If Sanchez could be a serviceable CF, that could be a game changer. Obviously I hope Harrison succeeds in the majors, but I see Sanchez as much more of a sure thing as a major league hitter.

[lou]

But if they don't spend, this team is going nowhere...

Like Tampa Bay and Oakland? Those are the teams that Miami needs to emulate, not Atlanta or Houston.

Miami can spend $50+ million on payroll to get to Oakland

[lou]

Also, do we want to emulate the Rays and As out of the playoffs?

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We saw a little bit of trying Sanchez in CF last year in AAA. I'm hoping that once Harrison gets called up we give him a real shot at CF every day in AAA. If Sanchez could be a serviceable CF, that could be a game changer. Obviously I hope Harrison succeeds in the majors, but I see Sanchez as much more of a sure thing as a major league hitter.

I agree would be enormous. The CF redundancy would be fantastic. And honestly, he'd just need to do it 50% of the time as it seems like VVM is going to be an elite defender and Sierra might be too. That's assuming Monte completely fails and doesn't even turn into a bench guy.

Either way, what a nice accolade for VVM and Sanchez.

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Make him a crazy offer and see. Rendon is best player out there and solves 3B/RF for next 4 years

That would be nice. But I think the writing is on the wall they intend to tank one more year even if I (we) disagree.

You know there is a whiteboard somewhere in the front office suites that has this listed for 2022:

Alfaro, Banfield/Fortes
Lewin, Cooper/Dean
Isan, Berti/Devers
Jazz
Anderson, "Wes Helms leadership type"
Bleday
Monte, VVM/Sierra
Sanchez

I can buy another bad year to really max out picks and set up the team longterm on the field. I just fear the off the field lack of fanbase, TV, naming rights, etc. issues attached to that.

We'll see.

[Lee Stone]

Question of the day: Is Isan Diaz the Marlin second baseman next season and beyond?

Do we toss out his 2019 ML performance this season and attribute it to growing pains? We tried that with Brinson. How is Diaz any different?

Personally, I'm inclined to doubt the feasibility of Diaz over even Jon Berti. Yes, Diaz performed very well at New Orleans ... as did a host of others that are not deemed to be serious ML possibilities.

[lou]

Question of the day: Is Isan Diaz the Marlin second baseman next season and beyond?

Do we toss out his 2019 ML performance this season and attribute it to growing pains? We tried that with Brinson. How is Diaz any different?

Personally, I'm inclined to doubt the feasibility of Diaz over even Jon Berti. Yes, Diaz performed very well at New Orleans ... as did a host of others that are not deemed to be serious ML possibilities.

For the love of fuck, Diaz had basically a 1.000 OPS in AAA, with supporting BB/K/BABIP peripherals, over a statistically significant 400 PA, and then at the MLB level, had a .224 BABIP and totally great 9.5% BB rate in his cup of coffee. Do you know how unlucky a .224 BABIP is? He was a top 10 unlucky hitter in baseball last year. This is also ignoring at basically every level, he has initially struggled (see 2018 AAA especially) and then figured it out.

He's fine. When that BABIP normalizes - and it always does as regression is a bitch - he's hitting minimum .240 which is all he needs to do with that walk rate and power. That BABIP is so low he may even get to .260 which makes him really interesting fast. I think chances are good they have a solid 2+ WAR starter (See Moncada 2018 version) here that has peak upside in a good power year.

If you want to question Isan's defense, I think that is fair game. It was a little scary last year and needs to get better. But nothing is screaming he can't hit. If he's not going to make it, it's going to be the defense how I see it. This doesn't look like a Brinson situation to me as Isan held his own (basically double the walk rate) and the hits didn't fall.

Also, if Berti is for real, he's certainly better as he had one of the more surprising seasons in all of MLB last year and he's a superior defensive option, but Berti is also irrelevant to Diaz. You play Diaz, everyday (absent potentially shielding him against tougher lefties at first) and see what you got. Clearly a top 8 position player in the organization today. Berti can find time at SS, LF, and CF, and then spell someone at any other position on the field as he can play everywhere and/or Rojas and Anderson can move everywhere. There are plenty of PA for both of them if they are going to produce.

[Todd]

Harrison gives me...I don't know what the word is. That K rate combined with a .400 BABIP screams "MLB pitching will eat him for lunch".

[The Canadian]

MiLB gave out its Gold Gloves and 2 Marlins got them. This is ALL of minors not just 1 level

CF-VVM
RF-Jesus Sanchez

I always thought VVM played LF.

[lou]

Harrison gives me...I don't know what the word is. That K rate combined with a .400 BABIP screams "MLB pitching will eat him for lunch".

Monte had a .373 BABIP in 2019 though. Which is obviously high, but it is a big difference from .400. And he's fast. And he is big and hits the ball hard (presumably). He should be a high BABIP player. The year before was .368, and the year before approx. .346.

Monte dramatically lowered his K rate (7%) and raised his BB rate (2.5%), while raising his average 34 points with the same BABIP basically as 2018. He's scary for sure, but this is a real step forward. We can hope.

[tjfla]

I always thought VVM played LF.

Thats what people think he will play in Majors but his defense could have him in LF/CF/RF. He is pretty much a RH Sierra

Worst case for VVM and Sierra is 4th OF(Any spot). Defense++/Speed++/Bat OK/Power--

Same case could be made for Brian Miller except better bat

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Also, do we want to emulate the Rays and As out of the playoffs?

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I agree would be enormous. The CF redundancy would be fantastic. And honestly, he'd just need to do it 50% of the time as it seems like VVM is going to be an elite defender and Sierra might be too. That's assuming Monte completely fails and doesn't even turn into a bench guy.

Either way, what a nice accolade for VVM and Sanchez.

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That would be nice. But I think the writing is on the wall they intend to tank one more year even if I (we) disagree.

You know there is a whiteboard somewhere in the front office suites that has this listed for 2022:

Alfaro, Banfield/Fortes
Lewin, Cooper/Dean
Isan, Berti/Devers
Jazz
Anderson, "Wes Helms leadership type"
Bleday
Monte, VVM/Sierra
Sanchez

I can buy another bad year to really max out picks and set up the team longterm on the field. I just fear the off the field lack of fanbase, TV, naming rights, etc. issues attached to that.

We'll see.

They are not tanking 2020 but they arent gonna try either. Pick 3-10 for 2021 draft is goal. 2020 is find out who can stick,trade guys if needed,max out BPA picks/IFA(Cappe) and figure 40 man out

Still think they shop a package of Devers/OF/SP around for a younger ML player

Guys who can play CF soon are Monte/VV/Sierra/Brinson/Berti/Miller/Sanchez/Jerar (Sanchez/Jerar are better in corner but could play CF in smaller OF)