2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[tjfla]

Another thing about 80% of our prospects is they are actually at the right level or even too young for the level they are at

NOT talking about drafted guys or "injured" guys-Examples are Jake Walters/Tanner Andrews who were at Lo A LY but were taken in 2018 draft which means level in 2019 is fine and Josh Roberson was in Lo A but was coming off TJ

"Rule" is

AA-23+
Hi A-22
Lo A-21
Rookie-17-20(unless just drafted or coming off injury)

College guys drafted the year before should start in Lo A and get some Hi A action the following year IF they are prospects and not just MilB depth

Burdick was a year to OLD for Clinton and Connor Scott was 2 years to Young for Clinton-NOT saying Burdick should be discounted by age however just saying was OLD for the level he was destroying

Massive change from Jeff's FO when he would have 26 yr old in Lo A

[fauowls44]

Dont have any cash for him RIGHT NOW. Very easy to get it especially if he waits till July 2 but we already have 4-5 million committed for 2020 so unless his people tell Miami he wants to be here I doubt we make a serious run at him.

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Rotations
ML-Caleb,Sandy,Pablo,Yamamoto,Urena
AAA-Sixto,Cabrera,Neidert,Dugger,Guzman,Josh Smith,Poteet,Beggs
AA-Garrett,Rogers,Holloway,Roberson,Remey Reed,Puckett(when healthy),Josh Roeder/Kolton Mahoney(SP depth thru majors)
Hi A-Will Stewart,Mejia,Soriano,Guerrero,Walters,Andrews
Lo A-Givin,Palacios,Andrew Miller,Hoeing,Zach King,Maldonado,GCL/DSL Guys

Roberson,Remey Reed,Puckett all should prolly be in Hi A but Denbo has been aggressive with ages and all 3 are AA age level

Pens
ML-Jarlin,Quijada,Yimi,Brice,Sharp,Stanek,Steck,Elies er,Brigham
AAA-Lee,Castano,Venditte,Moran,Stevens,Bugg,Northcraft ,Eveld,Graves
AA-Vesia,Guenther,Mills,Hock,CJ Carter,Mateo,Chad Smith,Braley,Sherrod,McKenna,Tyler Jones(SP?)
Hi A-Lindgren,Alcala,Alexander,Brito,Culbertson,Brabran d,Mitzel,Manny Rodriguez,Wolf,Few draft arms from LY
Lo A-Drafted Arms/GCL/DSL guys-LOTS of options


P depth is impressive!! Probably will sign few more MilB FA and of course they sign some young guys released from other systems/draft tons of arms too.

Something to watch is the GCL/DSL guys. About 20-25 guys ALL under the age of 20 with talent could be put anywhere from Hi A to GCL

The MLB pen needs one more experienced late inning pitcher. Other than that, I'm good with this list...although I don't see Conley on there. I assume in this scenario, you have him dealt.

[lou]

The MLB pen needs one more experienced late inning pitcher. Other than that, I'm good with this list...although I don't see Conley on there. I assume in this scenario, you have him dealt.

There are 9 guys in that pen too which doesn't work. They should do something like this:

Brice (who is OOO) --> Lefty 25 man arm and demote Quijada to AAA; Promote Brigham to AAA to replace Brice
Hernandez ---> position player upgrade, demote Brinson to AAA
Dugger/Holloway/Mejia ---> Upgrade SP, demote Yamamoto to AAA

25 man is:

Alfaro, Cervelli
Aguilar, Cooper
Isan
Rojas, Berti
Villar
Dickerson, Ramirez
"NEW OF", Sierra
Anderson
(AAA 40 man - Dean and Brinson; for later Monte, Jazz, Sanchez, and Lewin)

Sandy, Caleb, Urena, "NEW SP," Pablo
Stanek, Steckenrider, Yimi, Brigham, Sharp
Garcia, "NEW LEFTY," Conley
(AAA 40 man - Yamamoto and Quijada, maybe Dugger; for later Guzman, Sixto, Neidert, Cabrera)


That totally works for me and I like the balance.

They'd have to trade for the bat as FA sucks right now, but they could take back non 40 man prospects with the other two moves and just sign Alex Wood and Ryan Butcher for the SP/RP slots.

I suppose you could also just sign Brad Miller and appease Lee, and bank on Villar, Berti, Sierra, and Ramirez covering CF adequately. I'm not opposed to that idea.

[tjfla]

The MLB pen needs one more experienced late inning pitcher. Other than that, I'm good with this list...although I don't see Conley on there. I assume in this scenario, you have him dealt.

I think Conley and either Urena or Brice are gone before OD. They are looking for Non 40 man prospects/IFA $/Picks but all 3 could be had for right price

They want at least 1 RP on ML deal now and sign 3 or 4 more Milb RP deals. IF they deal Urena I think they sign a vet like Wood/Ivan Nova on a cheaper deal to eat innings

Something to watch over next few months is the Cuban guy Colas/other Cuban guys. IF they get clear by July 2 I could see us moving more guys out like Pompey/prospects too. Miami has wanted IFA $ since Oct

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For the 1000th time the Miami/Minnesota trade thats been mentioned makes tons of sense!! Gotta believe its Minnesota saying give us some time to figure stuff out

Minnesota-Elieser/Brian Miller/Cooper or Dean
Miami-Cave/Alcala or RP/Nice Gordon

Something that resembles this is PEREFECT for both teams!!

Minnesota gets a ML SP/Replacement for Cave/DH for AL
Miami gets a ML CF/RP/MIF with options

[lou]

I think Conley and either Urena or Brice are gone before OD. They are looking for Non 40 man prospects/IFA $/Picks but all 3 could be had for right price

They want at least 1 RP on ML deal now and sign 3 or 4 more Milb RP deals. IF they deal Urena I think they sign a vet like Wood/Ivan Nova on a cheaper deal to eat innings

Something to watch over next few months is the Cuban guy Colas/other Cuban guys. IF they get clear by July 2 I could see us moving more guys out like Pompey/prospects too. Miami has wanted IFA $ since Oct

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For the 1000th time the Miami/Minnesota trade thats been mentioned makes tons of sense!! Gotta believe its Minnesota saying give us some time to figure stuff out

Minnesota-Elieser/Brian Miller/Cooper or Dean
Miami-Cave/Alcala or RP/Nice Gordon

Something that resembles this is PEREFECT for both teams!!

Minnesota gets a ML SP/Replacement for Cave/DH for AL
Miami gets a ML CF/RP/MIF with options

You can pretty much just keeping adding to the list with that:

Trade Urena non 40 man options --> Ivan Nova
Trade Conley non 40 man options --> Ryan Butcher, send Quijada AAA
Trade Brice non 40 man options --> Move Brigham 25 man
Trade Dugger/Holloway/Mejia --> Alex Wood (Brice's spot on 40 man), send Yamamoto AAA
Trade Hernandez to Minnesota --> Cave and non 40 man friends, send Brinson AAA

That would be great, and maybe add $8-10 to overall payroll with so much to theoretically trade at the deadline

[tjfla]

Heineman to SF-prolly replacing Posey HAHA

[fauowls44]

19 year old catcher.

Joe Frisaro
@JoeFrisaro
The #Marlins have acquired C Jose Estrada from the #Angels for RHP Kyle Keller, who was DFA'd on 12/20
12:31 PM · Jan 6, 2020·Twitter Web App

[tjfla]

19 yr old DSL C

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...ayer_id=684260

Love when we make trades for DFA guys. ANYTHING is better than letting them walk

[fauowls44]

Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Daniel Hudson's deal with the Washington Nationals is for two years and $11 million, sources tell ESPN. He can earn another $1 million in performance bonuses related to games finished.
3:28 PM · Jan 6, 2020·TweetDeck

[Lee Stone]

Heineman to SF-prolly replacing Posey HAHA

Make note of this. Marlins will regret letting Heineman walk.

[fish16]

Make note of this. Marlins will regret letting Heineman walk.

do you ever just go back like a year or 2 and take note of every guy like this who you fall in love with and how most of them fail after they move up to a level where they arent the oldest guy there?

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that seems like an overpay for hudson. guy obviously had injury issues so there are reasons he was ineffective, but he spent 2012-2017 either injured or pitching awful, had a -.1 WAR in 2017, then had a 5.08 XFIP total last year, although he was great down the stretch for the nationals. Id try to get cishek on a 1 year deal or a 1+1 and try to do exactly what we did for romo. I think getting Lewin for Romo is going to be a move we look back on very favorably, especially given the lack of power bats and 1b in the system. Super high on him. He reminds me of Yordan Alvarez in terms of lefty, big ass dude, 1b, and power.

After watching video of him as well I can see where a tweak in his swing could unlock even more power. If you look at videos of him from this year he hits hr's on balls that he doesnt even completely square up.

[lou]

do you ever just go back like a year or 2 and take note of every guy like this who you fall in love with and how most of them fail after they move up to a level where they arent the oldest guy there?

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that seems like an overpay for hudson. guy obviously had injury issues so there are reasons he was ineffective, but he spent 2012-2017 either injured or pitching awful, had a -.1 WAR in 2017, then had a 5.08 XFIP total last year, although he was great down the stretch for the nationals. Id try to get cishek on a 1 year deal or a 1+1 and try to do exactly what we did for romo. I think getting Lewin for Romo is going to be a move we look back on very favorably, especially given the lack of power bats and 1b in the system. Super high on him. He reminds me of Yordan Alvarez in terms of lefty, big ass dude, 1b, and power.

After watching video of him as well I can see where a tweak in his swing could unlock even more power. If you look at videos of him from this year he hits hr's on balls that he doesnt even completely square up.

I figured you would love the Nationals offseason, signing a bunch of solid dudes (Thames, Asdrubal, Castro, Kendrick, Hudson, D. Hernandez, and W. Harris; Combined 11 WAR) for $25 all in, and there is some real upside there as Castro was phenomenal in the second half, Thames has real power, Hernandez is on a MiLB deal, etc.

Maybe temper expectations with Lewin also. However, if he is a top 10 defender at the position and can get to an .800 OPS, he's a 2+ WAR player easily. I'd be thrilled if Romo turned into that. Even if that's a guy to just platoon against righties.

[fish16]

I figured you would love the Nationals offseason, signing a bunch of solid dudes (Thames, Asdrubal, Castro, Kendrick, Hudson, D. Hernandez, and W. Harris; Combined 11 WAR) for $25 all in, and there is some real upside there as Castro was phenomenal in the second half, Thames has real power, Hernandez is on a MiLB deal, etc.

Maybe temper expectations with Lewin also. However, if he is a top 10 defender at the position and can get to an .800 OPS, he's a 2+ WAR player easily. I'd be thrilled if Romo turned into that. Even if that's a guy to just platoon against righties.

Decent offseason for thwm but I think they need to sign Donaldson or the void left by rendon will be too large.

We also just dfa Brice to make room for Dickerson. I like that, couldn’t stand Brice. I love the philosophy for bullpen guys that this regime has. I’ve been saying for years that bullpen arms that you can’t rely on to consistently throw strikes are not valuable at all.its a very basic stat but whip to me is huge for bullpen guys. Plain and simple, in short sample sizes you need to minimize base runners period. Guys who walk a ton of players out of the bullpen are my least favorite kind of pitcher

[tjfla]

Brice DFA and should get something for him

How the hell is Moran still on 40 man tho?

[lou]

Brice DFA is interesting. I suspect they'll trade him just like Keller which makes sense as he's OOO and other arms are around. This just speeds it up.

Update

Marlins 25/40 man

C - Alfaro, Cervelli (2)
1B - Aguilar, Cooper, L. Diaz (3)
2B - I. Diaz, Berti (2)
SS - Rojas, Jazz (2)
3B - Villar, Anderson (2)
CF - Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
OF - Dickerson, Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (4)
=18

SP - Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto, E. Hernandez, Dugger, Neidert, Sixto, E. Cabrera (10)
RP - Steckenrider, Stanek, Y. Garcia, Brigham, Sharp, Guzman, (6)
LP - Garcia, Conley, Quijada (3)
Other - Holloway, Mejia (2 - likely non 2020 players)
=21

Total = 39
*Moran is still on the 40 man, but I don't think any of us believe that will maintain

Definitely room for another CF or lefty reliever. And both if they trade Hernandez.

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Brice DFA and should get something for him

How the hell is Moran still on 40 man tho?

You must have posted this 12 seconds before me.

Maybe he's just there in case they can't get another lefty reliever. He won't make it much longer.