2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Lee Stone]

Hat off to fish16: the biggest douche I ever encountered on a sports forum.

[lou]

Good grief. 57 ML rookies had 150 or more ab in 2019. Diaz had the lowest OPS of all of them. Do we get that? Having watched all the plate appearances that earned him that distinction, I never concluded that his lack of success was attributable to bad luck. As I stated, his performance raised doubt. Could Diaz evolve into an average major leaguer? Sure. However, his initial floundering certainly doesn't increase the odds of that happening.

As to that list of 2B guys, you've made my case. It's bleak ... or full of question marks at the very best.

Good grief indeed. It's a comically low .224 BABIP, further supported by his chase rate (26%, league average 32%), slightly below average swinging strike rate (10%, league average 11%), and solid walk rate (9.5%). This is a good profile for a rookie. No one is saying he is the savior and going to be this awesome 5 WAR player, but it's just enough already treating him like a has-been prospect when he "struggled" with comically bad luck for 200 PA, after absolutely obliterating AAA. He deserves his shot and he should get an extended one. He did nothing to not get it. He could turn into a .250/.350/.425+ hitter relatively overnight. The question with Diaz is going to be the defense.

[emkayseven]

I think Diaz is useful but somewhere between lou's projections and Lee's doomsday scenario. I think he's probably a .230/.325/.400 guy.

[lou]

I think Diaz is useful but somewhere between lou's projections and Lee's doomsday scenario. I think he's probably a .230/.325/.400 guy.

To note, I don't think he will do the above and 2018 Moncada is where I think he lands. That's basically your slash above, with slightly below average defense. That's a 2 WAR guy. I think that would be a good (great) result. Anything more I am thrilled.

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*Especially if that splits higher versus right handers and they get a good right handed platoon 2B/SS/3B to help out Isan and Jazz

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Didn't even realize this before, it's a SSS, but Isan was basically a .600 OPS vs RHP and a .400 vs LHP.

Berti just needs to play against all lefties (.883!) for awhile.

These are comical sample sizes, but I think we can all agree Isan acclimating to MLB pitching against right handers, and Berti doing anything against lefties even when that obviously drops, could turn into a ".750+ OPS" 2B situation very quickly with ideally close to neutral defense and really positive base running. That is an easy 2-3 WAR position profile, if not closer to the 3, which would be great.

I really like this plan for 2020. If Berti does it again, a lefty killer 2B/SS is exactly what they need behind Isan and Jazz.

[Nick]

Isan Diaz

First 230 ABs at AAA .641 OPS
Final 284 ABs at AAA 1.078 OPS

First 151 ABs at AA .664 OPS
Final 141 ABs at AA .914 OPS

2017 doesn't really fit my argument here, but...

2016 Low-A ball

First 189 ABs .599 OPS
Final 223 ABs .955 OPS

That's quite a long track record of slow starts at levels and then crushing. This alone is enough reason for me to not panic with Diaz.

[lou]

Joyce was interviewed on MLB Network and he mentioned Hill told him he has the chance to start 2-4 days a week in RF. That would indicate that they are expecting Villar to play CF since they aren't platooning Anderson. I suppose it could mean Villar will play some games at SS too every week.

This is what is interesting to me. Isan isn't the question.

Maybe it's something like this initially, assuming 6 games a week:

Alfaro 4, Cervelli 2
Cooper 3, Aguilar 3
Isan 4, Villar 1, Berti 1
Rojas 4, Villar 1, Berti 1
Anderson 4, Villar 1, Berti 1
Dickerson 4, Ramirez/Brinson/Cooper 2
Villar 3, Ramirez/Sierra/Brinson 3
Joyce/Ramirez/Brinson/Cooper 4, Anderson 2

Basically, Villar and Anderson play everyday, Aguilar/Cooper and Alfaro/Cervelli are 100% of C and 1B, and Dickerson, Rojas, and Isan are strong side of platoons.

This basically leaves 12 extra starts a week for Berti, Ramirez, Brinson, Cooper, Joyce, and Sierra which sounds about right. Let the best dudes win. This is a real competition for once and not "Herrera and Prado" just there for the sake of a roster spot.

[tjfla]

This is what is interesting to me. Isan isn't the question.

Maybe it's something like this initially, assuming 6 games a week:

Alfaro 4, Cervelli 2
Cooper 3, Aguilar 3
Isan 4, Villar 1, Berti 1
Rojas 4, Villar 1, Berti 1
Anderson 4, Villar 1, Berti 1
Dickerson 4, Ramirez/Brinson/Cooper 2
Villar 3, Ramirez/Sierra/Brinson 3
Joyce/Ramirez/Brinson/Cooper 4, Anderson 2

Basically, Villar and Anderson play everyday, Aguilar/Cooper and Alfaro/Cervelli are 100% of C and 1B, and Dickerson, Rojas, and Isan are strong side of platoons.

This basically leaves 12 extra starts a week for Berti, Ramirez, Brinson, Cooper, Joyce, and Sierra which sounds about right. Let the best dudes win. This is a real competition for once and not "Herrera and Prado" just there for the sake of a roster spot.

Cervelli is gonna get some 1B reps too.

[Nick]

Cervelli is gonna get some 1B reps too.

That'd be real dumb.

[tjfla]

Sounding like we will be announcing atleast 1 signing today and maybe BOTH. Have something worked out since Heyman mentioned it but were waiting till after the SB

I know Nick sounds crazy and u dont like it

[el nino]

I don't think Lee's position on I Diaz is all that absurd. Yes SSS and peripherals allow for a rebound, but with the recent example of Brinson, I don't think it's unreasonable to be pessimistic on him. If you just go by the 'eye test' and don't look at BABIP there's no way you would be excited about him. Yes, that's an outdated way to judge a player but Lee's contrarian takes on our prospects have been right more than enough times to make saying he has "proven time and time again you dont know what the fuck you're looking for or how to evaluate talent" way off base. Maybe it's just luck that he's run into a few really good calls but I think it's a little more than that.

I know I'm not really adding anything to the discussion but sometimes I just wish the 6 Marlins fans left in existence could get along better.

[fauowls44]

I don't think Lee's position on I Diaz is all that absurd. Yes SSS and peripherals allow for a rebound, but with the recent example of Brinson, I don't think it's unreasonable to be pessimistic on him. If you just go by the 'eye test' and don't look at BABIP there's no way you would be excited about him. Yes, that's an outdated way to judge a player but Lee's contrarian takes on our prospects have been right more than enough times to make saying he has "proven time and time again you dont know what the fuck you're looking for or how to evaluate talent" way off base. Maybe it's just luck that he's run into a few really good calls but I think it's a little more than that.

I know I'm not really adding anything to the discussion but sometimes I just wish the 6 Marlins fans left in existence could get along better.

I mean, sure Lee could be right. I'm never going to be surprised about a prospect not working out as planned...that happens all the time. The problem is judging a 23 year old prospect that crushed AAA on is first 179 MLB at bats is silly.

[Nick]

I don't think Lee's position on I Diaz is all that absurd. Yes SSS and peripherals allow for a rebound, but with the recent example of Brinson, I don't think it's unreasonable to be pessimistic on him. If you just go by the 'eye test' and don't look at BABIP there's no way you would be excited about him. Yes, that's an outdated way to judge a player but Lee's contrarian takes on our prospects have been right more than enough times to make saying he has "proven time and time again you dont know what the fuck you're looking for or how to evaluate talent" way off base. Maybe it's just luck that he's run into a few really good calls but I think it's a little more than that.

I know I'm not really adding anything to the discussion but sometimes I just wish the 6 Marlins fans left in existence could get along better.

Nobody is saying that Lee couldn't be right about Diaz. His assertion that he should lose his spot as every day 2nd Baseman to 30-year old journeymen because he had a rough first 180 ABs is what is being taken exception to.

[fauowls44]

Not to mention the fact that Diaz had a history of struggling initially at a level when moved up in the minors and then figuring it out.

[Lee Stone]

Nobody is saying that Lee couldn't be right about Diaz. His assertion that he should lose his spot as every day 2nd Baseman to 30-year old journeymen because he had a rough first 180 ABs is what is being taken exception to.

I merely pointed out that Diaz' performance had "raised doubt." Is that even arguable? It was triggered by discussion of Villar possibly taking over CF. I figured he might well be needed at 2B if Diaz is assigned to AAA. While Diaz performed well at New Orleans last year, we have to realize that others like Austin Dean, Eddy Alvarez, Tyler Heineman and even Brinson performed well there too.

[Nick]

I merely pointed out that Diaz' performance had "raised doubt." Is that even arguable? It was triggered by discussion of Villar possibly taking over CF. I figured he might well be needed at 2B if Diaz is assigned to AAA. While Diaz performed well at New Orleans last year, we have to realize that others like Austin Dean, Eddy Alvarez, Tyler Heineman and even Brinson performed well there too.

The acceptance of Diaz as the big league 2B

I took that as you questioning whether he should be the starting 2nd Baseman this year. The answer to whether he should be the starting 2nd Baseman this year is absolutely definitively yes. Questioning whether he will cement his place as 2nd Baseman of the future and going forward past 2020 is 100% valid, but it didn't seem to me like that's what you were saying.