2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

So ... how about adding Brinson and I Diaz along with Realmuto in order to get Robles, C. Kieboom and Raudy Read?

[tjfla]

So ... how about adding Brinson and I Diaz along with Realmuto in order to get Robles, C. Kieboom and Raudy Read?

[Lee Stone]

Other than Robles I would pass on any OF

Doubt NYY are in on him but always possible because Denbo has guys he likes still and they have a nice system still

I think Kyle Tucker is comparable to Yelich at the same age. I'd take him.

- - - - - - - - - -

You're right! That would really kill the deal.

[tjfla]

Sucks we missed on Trevor Rosenthal LY cause would have been a solid trade chip. He signed with Washington

[fish16]

So ... how about adding Brinson and I Diaz along with Realmuto in order to get Robles, C. Kieboom and Raudy Read?

Jesus

[fish16]

Sucks we missed on Trevor Rosenthal LY cause would have been a solid trade chip. He signed with Washington

didnt he miss the entire year?

- - - - - - - - - -

I know 2020 is like 40-45 million with Chen being like 22 million of that

that chen deal feels interminable

[sports24/7]

Yep on Washington-I would only do Robles and Kieboom Brothers deal with them and if they say YES call the deal in quickly

If JT is staying in the NL East(Wash or Atlanta) then that team has to overpay!!

In that Houston deal we could probably get a Cristian Javier or Dean Deetz plus a low level prospect too but that would be deal

The Marlins aren't in a position to hike up the price significantly to a divisional rival. They should take the best offer they can get, period. The Houston and Arizona deals you mentioned (not including the Tucker one) are awfully underwhelming, and more so when you turned down a deal for Robles. You should be getting a blue chip prospect and more in return for JT. If you don't, you failed. But setting more realistic expectations for a team that isn't very good at this, you should be getting at least 2 top 100 prospects and a handful of others, or 3 top 100 prospects. You cannot trade another all-star and not make a dent in truly upgrading your system.

[fish16]

The Marlins aren't in a position to hike up the price significantly to a divisional rival. They should take the best offer they can get, period. The Houston and Arizona deals you mentioned (not including the Tucker one) are awfully underwhelming, and more so when you turned down a deal for Robles. You should be getting a blue chip prospect and more in return for JT. If you don't, you failed. But setting more realistic expectations for a team that isn't very good at this, you should be getting at least 2 top 100 prospects and a handful of others, or 3 top 100 prospects. You cannot trade another all-star and not make a dent in truly upgrading your system.

Agreed. Unless you're getting an ace type SP prospect I dont care what position these guys play just get the best return possible and let it settle itself out later. You can either trade from your depth later on, some of them inevitably dont work out, or you can move them to 1b or 3b or something. 3 out of Monte, Brinson, Tucker, VV, Pompey, Scott under team control for 5-6 years is a great outlook for the OF, plus I could see Tucker and Pompey being able to play 1b and maybe even scott. Figure that out later though, just get the best possible return.

Yordan Alvarez, Corbin Martin, Nova, and a C for JT would be a phenomenal return and i could see that being what happens after Houston does not budge on Tucker and Whitley.

- - - - - - - - - -

Is that "overpay because trading in the division" thing actually ever a thing?

[lou]

I know 2020 is like 40-45 million with Chen being like 22 million of that

Well, close. Chen has a $17 million deferment for 2020. Let's assume this. Every single player here is club controlled unless starred (Chen, Riddle, Wittgren):

C - "TBD Club Controlled Catcher, regardless of starter or backup, acquired in Realmuto deal", ________
1B - _______, _______
2B - Diaz
SS - ________, Riddle (Super2)*
3B - Anderson
LF - VVM
CF - Brinson, Sierra/Miller
RF - Monte

SP - ________, "Main Asset Realmuto Trade", Neidert, pick 2 of Alcantara/Ca. Smith/Lopez/Richards/Gallen/Yamamoto/whoever
RHP - Guzman, Steckenrider, Wittgren (arb1 or super 2)* pick your favorite 2 of Alcantara/Guerrero/Merandy/Eveld/Lopez/Richards/Gallen/Yamamoto/Brigham/Hernandez/Graves/Kinley/Beggs/Dugger/whoever
LHP - Chen*, pick favorite 2 Ca.Smith/Peters/Quijada/Lee/Mills/whoever

(The trades from this list - Realmuto, Castro, Dietrich, Straily, Rojas, Urena, Conley, Garcia (will likely be a super2, so he gone). I'm only including 2 players from Realmuto from this group, but you could see some good gets for some of these guys as they are all useful in their own right. This could easily fill out the bench and improve the bullpen numbers, etc.)

-So Riddle is going to make nothing, $2 million. Wittgren even less, let's say $1 million. Combined with Chen, this is roughly $20 million.
-The rest is club controlled - 17 players - let's say that is $12 million combined.

So you're at 20 players for around $32 million. This doesn't include other guys acquired in trades as mentioned above, or if they hit on an O'Brien/Cooper/Rule V 1B, etc.

I mean, of course you can keep Urena ($5+), Dietrich ($7.5+), Conley ($4+), and Garcia ($1+) here in 2020 and get to around that $45 million projection, but I suspect based on their expected contributions, getting one player valued between $15-20 million with that money outweighs all of their contributions compared to the alternatives they could get.

Sorry to nitpick, but it is LOWER than $40-45 by 2020. It's closer to $30 with expected defections of the later arbitration class of players.

Important to note, only Anderson, Brinson, Ca. Smith, Steckenrider, and second arbitration years for Riddle and Wittgren, occur in 2021. Chen is still on the books for $17, but practically, that $32 projection probably moves to $40-45 for those same 20 guys in 2021.

Basically, they are wide fucking open after they get out of Prado after this year, and move those last 8-10 guys off the team that are above the minimum.

[fauowls44]

From Andre Fernandez in The Athletic:

Jeff Berry, Realmuto’s agent, told MLB Network Radio on Tuesday that his client would not sign a contract extension with the Marlins and said he thought Realmuto “will definitely be wearing a different uniform by the start of spring training.”

Berry also mentioned that Realmuto had informed the Marlins of his intention not to sign a long-term deal with the team.

But a league source told The Athletic on Wednesday that Realmuto has not communicated any such intention to the Marlins’ ownership or front office.

The source said the Marlins plan to continue their efforts to sign Realmuto to a deal that would keep him in Miami beyond 2020.

If I'm the Marlins, I still at least present an offer and then go from there.

[fish16]

Id really like to know the agents reasoning for saying that yesterday, especially if he hadnt told the marlins front office yet. Id offer him 5 years 90-100 million and then deal him if he doesnt want to be here. Its annoying that the conversation is going to be yet again that the marlins are dealing all their good players but just keep sticking to the plan and dont worry about that. The only thing that matters is the long term outlook of the franchise and the only thing that will consistently bring fans into the stadium is a good team.

[Lee Stone]

Id really like to know the agents reasoning for saying that yesterday, especially if he hadnt told the marlins front office yet. Id offer him 5 years 90-100 million and then deal him if he doesnt want to be here. Its annoying that the conversation is going to be yet again that the marlins are dealing all their good players but just keep sticking to the plan and dont worry about that. The only thing that matters is the long term outlook of the franchise and the only thing that will consistently bring fans into the stadium is a good team.

Lay out (explain) your $100M offer, please. Is that five years after these next two arb years? If not, we're looking at maybe $14-15M in arbitration due over 2019-20. You want to give him $85M for the three additional years? In other words, $20M a year for five years starting in 2019? If such is the case, you would basically be eliminating Realmuto's asset value. Right now, it's the next two years at approx $14M that other teams would trade prospects for. They might view his value at $20M per year ($40M), but it's the $25M in savings over those two years that makes them cough up multiple minimum wage guys. Miami needs improvement at multiple positions, not a single catcher with a giant contract.

[fish16]

Lay out (explain) your $100M offer, please. Is that five years after these next two arb years? If not, we're looking at maybe $14-15M in arbitration due over 2019-20. You want to give him $85M for the three additional years? In other words, $20M a year for five years starting in 2019? If such is the case, you would basically be eliminating Realmuto's asset value. Right now, it's the next two years at approx $14M that other teams would trade prospects for. They might view his value at $20M per year ($40M), but it's the $25M in savings over those two years that makes them cough up multiple minimum wage guys. Miami needs improvement at multiple positions, not a single catcher with a giant contract.

He will be making more than 14-15 million over the next 2 years, and im cool with overpaying him a little if it gets him to stay considering our lack of contracts on the books long into the future.

Year 1- 15 million
Year 2- 17 million
Year 3- 20 million
Year 4- 18 million
Year 5- 18 million
Total of 5 years 88 million. Doesnt seem to matter regardless though as he seems like he wants out of here and despite some positive moves i wouldnt want to waste at least the next year or 2 of my prime on a team that isnt contending.

[Lee Stone]

He will be making more than 14-15 million over the next 2 years, and im cool with overpaying him a little if it gets him to stay considering our lack of contracts on the books long into the future.

Year 1- 15 million
Year 2- 17 million
Year 3- 20 million
Year 4- 18 million
Year 5- 18 million
Total of 5 years 88 million. Doesnt seem to matter regardless though as he seems like he wants out of here and despite some positive moves i wouldnt want to waste at least the next year or 2 of my prime on a team that isnt contending.

I don't doubt that there are teams who would give JT that contract, but I do doubt that they'd pay much in assets for the privilege. Those of us who watched the Marlins for years knew that Realmuto was going to be good. He should have been offered a Yelich-like contract a couple years ago.

I don't think that a team has to win a lot to draw fans. A hustling, exciting team can do that too. That's what I'm hoping to see.

[lou]

He will be making more than 14-15 million over the next 2 years, and im cool with overpaying him a little if it gets him to stay considering our lack of contracts on the books long into the future.

Year 1- 15 million
Year 2- 17 million
Year 3- 20 million
Year 4- 18 million
Year 5- 18 million
Total of 5 years 88 million. Doesnt seem to matter regardless though as he seems like he wants out of here and despite some positive moves i wouldnt want to waste at least the next year or 2 of my prime on a team that isnt contending.

Lee is right on this one. He's only going to make around $5.5-6.5 in arbitration this year (catcher comps are INSANE. MLBTR predicted $6), and probably in the $8-11 range depending on how good he does in 2019. Let's just say $6 and $9 respectively to make it an easy 2/$15 million deal. He's not getting much above that unless he goes all Yelich on baseball next year.

I think your proposal is a little high, but not by much. Buster is making $21.4 and peaks at $22 million in 2022. That's an important comp.

I think you're looking at $15 + $66 = $81 million. That pays him on relatively peak arbitration figures and compares him appreciably to Buster. The discount the Marlins get is not guaranteeing year 6 and not applying inflation to Buster's payroll.

Splice up the $81 million however you like in those 5 years. That's the number. The alternative is JT wins the negotiation and gets year 6 guaranteed and it breaks around $100 million all in.

I'm going in 5/$70, maybe going up to $84 when the back and forth happens, refusing to guarantee a 6th year, and if he takes it cool, if not calling a dozen teams and moving him. Zero pressure here.