Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[Nick]

What pisses me off more now is the Ozuna trade. Should have taken another pitcher instead of Sierra.

Agreed. I'd take the two OFs we got in the Yelich trade over Sierra and it's really not even close. Picking up a SS or C since it seems Realmuto being gone is inevitable would've been nice as well.

[fish16]

Agreed. I'd take the two OFs we got in the Yelich trade over Sierra and it's really not even close. Picking up a SS or C since it seems Realmuto being gone is inevitable would've been nice as well.

You need 3 OF’s and even if they all work out you can flip them for more. It’s not a bad strategy. And the 2 mi’s we’ve gotten for dee and Stanton have a lot of potential

[Ralph]

Sickels rankings before the trade. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018...pects-for-2018

He mentions the system la led bats. This trade certainly helped.

[fish16]

Sickels rankings before the trade. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018...pects-for-2018

He mentions the system la led bats. This trade certainly helped.

Im probably just a homer, but if just one of Alcantara and Guzman fulfill their potential as a top of the rotation guy, combined with all the other SP prospects we have, our rotation looks not only good, but under team control for a very long time. Obviously some of them will flop, but a lot of the rationale behind the organizational depth theory in rebuilding is that you are kind of throwing darts and hoping it lands in the right place, and we have a ton of future SP options now compared to this time last year. Obviously a huge if, but IF we were able to pry Robles from the Nats, that is a really bright outlook for the future given the amount of cost controlled young players we have just gotten. I really do think that in year 1 of a rebuild, with the inevitable JT trade, we are not in a bad place. This team will obviously be terrible this year, but thats by design, and a top pick combined with increased IFA activity and the work we've done in the trades this offseason, and the outlook of this team is really not bad.

I have a feeling we do end up dealing JT to the Nats, but getting Soto+ for him instead of Robles, which depending on the other prospects would not be a bad deal either at all.

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and reading Keith Law's report on the trade, Diaz apparently played with a hand injury all year which might explain his sub par year offensively and got surgery on it at the end of August, but when he played in whatever winter league this offseason he apparently played very well. Im not the biggest fan of Keith Law, but he thinks we might have gotten a good buy low value for once for whatever thats worth.

[fish16]

If we do get Robles from the Nats, I think it is because they think Harper is leaving and want to give it everything possible this year in a win now move. I just find it super hard to believe they would give him up, because I think he is MLB ready. I see us getting Soto+ . Hope they only do it for Robles though.

[lou]

May 8 for Brinson. They get an extra year of control if he is called up May 8. Pretty sure league calendar this year is 3/29-9/30.

So do the Marlins keep him in AAA for 38 days in a season where they lose 100, in order to retain his rights for 2024, or, play him for any one of those 38 days and 2023 is the last year you got him.

[Erick]

Diaz missed time due to a fracture in his hamate bone.

[lou]

Anderson and Alcantara are both May 14

[Erick]

May 8 for Brinson. They get an extra year of control if he is called up May 8. Pretty sure league calendar this year is 3/29-9/30.

So do the Marlins keep him in AAA for 38 days in a season where they lose 100, in order to retain his rights for 2024, or, play him for any one of those 38 days and 2023 is the last year you got him.

I think he starts the year with the team, but hopefully not.

[lou]

Peters is also May 14

Sierra May 26

[fish16]

Agreed. I'd take the two OFs we got in the Yelich trade over Sierra and it's really not even close. Picking up a SS or C since it seems Realmuto being gone is inevitable would've been nice as well.

That's really not saying much though. Sierra could still be good and we could also get 2 other really good OF's. If we end up with an OF of Brinson, Sierra, and Harrison and Sierra is our 3rd best OF, that would be a pretty damn good scenario. They obviously have to work out, but combining that future OF with a solid 2b guy in Diaz, hopefully anderson could be at least a 2 WAR guy a year, maybe you get lucky on Torres or Devers in the future at SS, all the different SP's we've now got in the sytem + Conley, Urena, Peters already in the big leagues. Not terrible before we even play a game since we've started the rebuild. It's gonna take patience and an increased IFA presence and much better drafting, but we're on the right track here.

[Ralph]

I think Sierra starts in center. Struggles and in May swap him for Lewis.

[fish16]

May 8 for Brinson. They get an extra year of control if he is called up May 8. Pretty sure league calendar this year is 3/29-9/30.

So do the Marlins keep him in AAA for 38 days in a season where they lose 100, in order to retain his rights for 2024, or, play him for any one of those 38 days and 2023 is the last year you got him.

I think they'll absolutely do it then. If it was closer to June it would be a little harder, but May 8 isnt bad at all.

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Anderson and Alcantara are both May 14

Referring to Brian anderson?

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I think Peters and Anderson it really isnt worth it and they should just bite the bullet on them if you ask me, but I see no way Sierra and Alcantara get up here before we get the extra year. Brinson is the wild card to me, but if that May 8 date is correct it makes it more explainable.

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I think Sierra starts in center. Struggles and in May swap him for Lewis.

No shot they start sierra to begin the year. He's not really close to MLB ready at this point and it wouldnt make any sense to do that.

I think you'l see us dump some more guys and then sign a bunch of guys to 1-year deals to fill spots on the ML roster to start the year.

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I think keeping Prado around too would help some of this decision making, especially since we're gonna deal Starlin too. Give him the everyday 2b job, LF is dietrich, 3b is anderson, Cooper/Van Slyke can play RF, then you keep all of those guys down till those dates, and when those dates pass you start dealing guys who hopefully hit well and increase their value (Prado strikes me as someone who has a good chance to do this) and give the jobs to the young guys as they hopefully mash in the minors and prove they are ready.

you'd get the best of both worlds by waiting till those extra years of team control vest, giving guys who mostly arent ML ready more development time, and you let guys possibly increase their trade value at the deadline, and then you get the remaining months of the year to evaluate how we did this offseason in the trades.

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If the Phillies would be interested in Realmuto, i'd be ecstatic to get JP Crawford and a guy like sixto Sanchez. I think Crawford is the next Lindor and his value is a little lower than it should.

[fish16]

Or, if the Nats or Phillies dont give up the right package, I think San Diego would be a great trade partner for Realmuto. Start with Gore or Tatis as the centerpiece and build from there.

[lou]

Service time projections of when guys can get called up to ensure there is control for 2024. They need to be under 172 days. This is give/take 1 day as I’m not sure exactly when the league calendar starts.

Brinson - .025 - 146 days - May 8
Alcantara - .031 - 140 days - May 14
Anderson - .031 - 140 days - May 14
Peters - .031 - 140 days - May 14
Wallach - .035 - 136 days - May 18
Sierra - .042 - 129 days - May 25

This probably doesn’t matter for Wallach and D. Peters, but I’m going to be very mad if Sierra, Alcantara, Anderson, and Brinson are up early given how crappy the team is going to be and how they now need to maximize their assets. Especially Brinson and Alcantara. I hadn’t thought about Anderson before, but fuck it. They can live without him until May 14th.

The safe Super 2 clock is also around 115 days, which is June 7th-June 13th for projecting when guys like Gallen and Brigham can get called up with no service time. To get any of those guys above outside the Super2 range, which is being as gangster as possible, they need to be kept down another 50-55 days. That would push Brinson to mid-July, and you can do the math on the rest if interested.

Payroll is currently around $86 million, which doesn’t include the $7 million I read the Marlins will get off an insurance policy for Volquez. Who knows if that is true as I can’t find that link anymore. Highest paid:

Prado $13.5
Castro $10.8
Chen $10
Ziegler $9
Tazawa $7
Realmuto $3.5 (when he wins arb)
Straily $3.5 basically
Bour $3 (I think he loses his arb case, otherwise $3.4)
Dietrich $2.9
Rojas $1.1

I’m not sure how you field a team without them and the May callups above, but we’ll see what these next few trades and some marginal FA acquisitions look like.

Sigh.