Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[tjfla]

This.

I did it before somewhere, but I think Brinson is May 8th, Anderson/Peters/Alcantara May 14th, and Sierra May 25th (give or take a day or two for all of them) for the service time clock. Call them up after those dates and they preserve 2024 club control. Keep them all down.

Ya and everyone knows Chen will be out by then. Peters just steps into his spot

No point in pushing any of these guys when 2018 is already over. Even tho we will probably screw up and call someone up early or for 1 game

[fish16]

Peters barely pitched last year anyway so a month in new Orleans isnt a bad idea. Alcantara wont be up by anywhere near that time anyways, so thats not a big deal. Same with Sierra. Brinson and Anderson is where it gets sketchy. I think Brinson is pretty clearly MLB ready and same for Anderson, so i think it will be hard to explain that away, but as long as they dont care about more bad PR, its the obvious move.

I said this the other day but the Anderson move would make much more sense be much easier to rationalize away if we keep all of Prado, Dietrich, and Castro until the deadline. Brinson is much harder to do that with, though, unless we sign a couple OF's before opening day to 1 year contracts. If Brinson and Sierra are sent to the minors smartly, who is our starting OF's to start the year? Cooper? Dietrich? Van Slyke? Lee? Van Slyke had a really bad year last year as much as i liked that signing, so doing that might be tough. Hopefully they bite the bullet and do it though. Just look at how much better that worked out for the Cubs by doing so. They got another full year of Bryant in his prime in exchange for keeping him down for the first 2 weeks of the season. It's a no brainer.

I kind of wish they would change those rules though. Dont know how they would do so, but it's a bad look and bad business in the relationship between players and teams.

[tjfla]

If willing to spend some cash(5 or so) Jaime Garcia and Melk Man or Jon Jay wouldn't be bad signings.

Get a #5 SP and OF u can trade in July for prospects. OF DD/Jon Jay/Van Slyke with Braxton Lee and Cooper as Backup

[lou]

Peters barely pitched last year anyway so a month in new Orleans isnt a bad idea. Alcantara wont be up by anywhere near that time anyways, so thats not a big deal. Same with Sierra. Brinson and Anderson is where it gets sketchy. I think Brinson is pretty clearly MLB ready and same for Anderson, so i think it will be hard to explain that away, but as long as they dont care about more bad PR, its the obvious move.

I said this the other day but the Anderson move would make much more sense be much easier to rationalize away if we keep all of Prado, Dietrich, and Castro until the deadline. Brinson is much harder to do that with, though, unless we sign a couple OF's before opening day to 1 year contracts. If Brinson and Sierra are sent to the minors smartly, who is our starting OF's to start the year? Cooper? Dietrich? Van Slyke? Lee? Van Slyke had a really bad year last year as much as i liked that signing, so doing that might be tough. Hopefully they bite the bullet and do it though. Just look at how much better that worked out for the Cubs by doing so. They got another full year of Bryant in his prime in exchange for keeping him down for the first 2 weeks of the season. It's a no brainer.

I kind of wish they would change those rules though. Dont know how they would do so, but it's a bad look and bad business in the relationship between players and teams.

The "trade everyone" roster is probably:

C - Wallach
1B - Cooper
2B - Rojas
SS - Riddle
3B - Prado (untradeable now)
LF - Dietrich (save to deadline)
CF - R. Ortega (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/proj...gent-hitters-2)
RF - Veteran cheap free agent 1B/OF type
B - Telis, Van Slyke, J. Rodriguez (https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...23&position=1B), C. Adames (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...13&position=SS)

SP - Urena, Conley, Veteran cheap free agent, pick 2 of Despaigne/Nicolino/C. Smith/vagabonds
RP - Barraclough (save to deadline), Steckenrider, Wittgren, J. Garcia, loser Nicolino/C. Smith/Despaigne, E. Hernandez, and pick 2 camp arms (Jumbo/Turner/O'Grady/Ellington/whoever/etc.)
DL - Chen

Brinson May 8th or so
Anderson, D. Peters May 14th or so
Alcantara and Sierra up when deemed ready late May or later
Gallen, Brigham, T. Richards, B. Lee, etc., all can come up when deemed ready after Super2 deadline June 7-10thish

Would also have some trade returns from the other guys moved to maybe put in here.

Ugly as hell, but this is as scorched earth as it gets.

If they end up keeping Castro (can't trade him), Bour (save to deadline), Straily (save to deadline), and say acquire a veteran catcher/Wieters Realmuto trade/etc., that really helps the team get to June/July. They would be a "respectable horrible."

[sports24/7]

Went aaway for the weekend and it seemed like JT was getting close to being traded. Seems to have cooled down some now. Hope it picks back up. Soto and Kieboom/Fedde + another prospect. Take it and run.

Just so we have it on record, you are not going to defend this deal if Kieboom is the headliner, right? That would be an awful return, but I really fear that's what is going to happen.

[flamarlins93]

IF they trade any reliever and take Wieters back that reliever has to be Tazawa. No one is taking him otherwise. I find it highly unlikely they would even consider taking on Wieters contract but if they do Tazawa has to be the one to go.

[fish16]

Just so we have it on record, you are not going to defend this deal if Kieboom is the headliner, right? That would be an awful return, but I really fear that's what is going to happen.

Depends on the package as a whole, but likely no

[fish16]

IF they trade any reliever and take Wieters back that reliever has to be Tazawa. No one is taking him otherwise. I find it highly unlikely they would even consider taking on Wieters contract but if they do Tazawa has to be the one to go.

im cool with taking Wieters for a few reasons. If it means we get Soto, im perfectly fine with it. Also, I like weiters because we have no upcoming guy at C especially for this upcoming season so he wouldnt be taking a young guy's playing time, and there is good buy low potential which im always about. If you can get him to get back to a .725-.750 OPS guy and then deal him for a mid level guy at the deadline, thats a win. Or, if he doesnt work out, taking his contract made the nats more likely to deal Soto and he's a free agent at the end of the year and you move on.

[flamarlins93]

im cool with taking Wieters for a few reasons. If it means we get Soto, im perfectly fine with it. Also, I like weiters because we have no upcoming guy at C especially for this upcoming season so he wouldnt be taking a young guy's playing time, and there is good buy low potential which im always about. If you can get him to get back to a .725-.750 OPS guy and then deal him for a mid level guy at the deadline, thats a win. Or, if he doesnt work out, taking his contract made the nats more likely to deal Soto and he's a free agent at the end of the year and you move on.

They shouldn't have to take on a 10 million dollar contract to be able to get Soto included in the trade period. Can't see this group taking on his contract anyhow. You will like the trade you know you will regardless of what they get back.lol

[fish16]

They shouldn't have to take on a 10 million dollar contract to be able to get Soto included in the trade period. Can't see this group taking on his contract anyhow. You will like the trade you know you will regardless of what they get back.lol

it a 10 million expiring contract. I know we're the marlins but we're not taking the equivalent of Chen's deal back, and it would be only around 5-6 depending on if/when they would trade him. Id be perfectly fine taking Wieters back regardless as a buy low opportunity because the nats want to get rid of him and it would come with better/more prospects. We dont have anything close to a catcher of the future in the organization and it's the equivalent of the 1 year deals other people are talking about to help potentially aid in a rebuild at the deadline. And no, i wont like the deal regardless of what they get back. I do want them to trade JT before the year though no matter what.

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Pretty big news for a variety of reasons in the D-Backs signing Alex Avila. Not only were the D-backs interested in JT which would take them out of the running, but the Nats were heavily interested in Avila. Dont know if Avila took the most money or if the Nats are focusing on JT now or what, but that would help us get more out of the Nats.

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Or i suppose it could shrink Jt's market. Guess we'll find out.

[rmc523]

Was reading about Fan Fest, which is only one day this year - Saturday, Feb. 10 - (Not like anyone will go) and they mentioned Jessica Blaylock is still around.....ugh.

[tjfla]

They shouldn't have to take on a 10 million dollar contract to be able to get Soto included in the trade period. Can't see this group taking on his contract anyhow. You will like the trade you know you will regardless of what they get back.lol

and U/others will shit on it unless they get Robles back. Kieboom is a bad centerpiece for a JT deal however if they get something like Kieboom,Fedde,Daniel Johnson,Severino and Antuna or Garcia(5 for 1 and one of the 18 yr olds) it is decent and we would be betting on the 18 yr old we get. I would prefer and is fair too-Soto,Kieboom,Severino and mid level arm or NOTHING but if they get 5 fot him I could understand it

As for Avila it didn't change much,Nats are focused on JT and still other teams looking for a C.Nats didn't think Avila was big difference from Wieters

[fish16]

Anyone else see the Barry Jackson piece on the hitters we've gotten back this offseason? Devers hasnt played much in the minors so thats probabyl the reason we havent seen much scouting on him, but everyone appears to be sky high on him? Also, IDK what Keith Law does to scout these players, but he always seems to be completely wrong compared to everyone else.

Also, fuck him because he took yet another unneeded shot at the Marlins for trading Paddack and then having him go down with TJ surgery as if that was our fault.

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Also, MLB.com came out with a list of guys who just missed their top 100 list, and Guzman, Diaz, and alcantara were all on the list of 12 players who made that list. So essentially we have 5 top 100 or so prospects and then possibly Rogers too as soon as he ever throws a pitch.

- - - - - - - - - -

So what are the Marlins getting with the position player prospects snagged in five trades this offseason?

Some perspective from talent evaluators:

▪ Outfielder Lewis Brinson, acquired in the Christian Yelich deal with Milwaukee. Rated MLB’s No. 13 overall prospect. Hit .106 in 21 games for the Brewers last year (5 for 47, 17 strikeouts) but batted .331, 13 homers, and 48 RBI in Triple A last season. Front-runner to start in center field for Marlins this season.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law: “Plus-plus defender in center with great bat speed and big raw power, with staying healthy his main problem so far in pro ball. He should be able to step in immediately to play center in Miami, which would also allow the Marlins to send Magneuris Sierra to the minors to continue developing as a hitter. Brinson’s swing can get long, and he’s going to strike out at a fairly high rate, but the ball comes off his bat extremely well and I think he’ll more than make up for the whiffs with extra-base power.”

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Fangraph’s Eric Longenhagen: “Brinson has loud physical tools: plus raw power, plus speed, plus arm strength, and the ability to play center field despite mediocre instincts. He didn’t hit for as much power as was expected at hitter-friendly Colorado Springs in 2017, but scouting reports on the raw power, and Brinson’s ability to get to it in games, remain strong. …

“Brinson has 25-homer potential. He has had several soft-tissue, lower-body injuries during his career, including multiple hamstring issues, one of which ended his 2017 season. He’s still a plus runner underway but doesn’t reach top speed as quickly as he once did. Should Brinson need to move to an outfield corner, he still projects to hit enough to play every day, but it would limit his value’s ceiling due to positional adjustment. … He projects as a plus regular and potential All-Star on talent.

“Some scouts are turned off by Brinson’s tentative routes in center field and think he needs to retain his plus speed if he hopes to be an average defender there; if he continues to have issues staying healthy that may not be possible. Should Brinson need to move to an outfield corner, he still projects to hit enough to play every day, but it would limit his value’s ceiling due to positional adjustment.”

▪ Outfielder Monte Harrison, acquired in Yelich deal with Milwaukee. Hit .272 with 21 homers, 27 steals and 67 RBI in two levels of A ball last season. Probably a year or two away.

Law: Harrison “had a breakout season as a prospect in low-A and high-A last year, shortening his swing to make better quality contact and more of it. He’s a plus runner who can play all three outfield spots, and has the power for a corner [outfielder], with 21 homers last year, setting a new career high.

“His baseball instincts still aren’t great, as he was a football recruit to the University of Nebraska after starring in multiple sports in high school, so there may be further growth to come and there’s still some risk that he doesn’t get to enough of his power because of the strikeouts.”

Logenhagen: “Harrison has always had late-bloomer traits. He was a multi-sport stud in high school and only committed to baseball full time after turning pro. In parts of three pro seasons entering 2017, Harrison missed time with a hamate fracture and broken leg, which prevented him from getting the reps he needed and diluted the way his tools looked on the field when he was.

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Don Mattingly talks at Winter Meetings about Marlins trades
Mattingly talks about the direction of the franchise and the future of the Marlins during a press conference at the MLB Winter Meetings on Dec. 13, 2017.

Andre Fernandeza1fernandez@miamiherald.com
“Harrison’s hands still drift up near his head as he loads them and create a downward swing path; he’s also still not used to timing breaking balls with this new leg kick. He remains strikeout prone because of this.

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“Harrison is a plus runner with elite arm strength and projects to stay in center field, where he profiles as an above-average defender. There’s still some volatility here because of the bat, but Harrison has an All-Star ceiling and seems hell bent on attaining it.”

▪ Second baseman/shortstop Isan Diaz, acquired in the Yelich deal. MLB’s No. 86 overall prospect, Diaz is a .261 hitter in four minor league seasons but batted just .222 (with 13 homers, 54 RBI) in advanced A ball last season. At least a year away, if not longer.

Law: “Diaz’s year was disappointing after he slugged .469 and hit 20 homers in low-A in 2016, although he played with a hamate injury for part of 2017, eventually having surgery to repair a fracture at the end of August. He has played shortstop in pro ball but he’s not a regular there, with much better defense at second base and the power to profile there. He did play much better in the Pan Am 23U qualifiers in November, showing glimpses of power again, and the Marlins may have done well to acquire him now while his value was temporarily low.”

Logenhagen: “He is strike prone, a result of middling breaking-ball recognition, bat control, and a somewhat violent uppercut swing. Diaz continued a long anticipated transition from shortstop to second base in 2017 and saw more time at second than short for the first time in his career.

“He has an above-average arm but fringy hands and range. Diaz’s combination of power, patience and ability to play an up-the-middle position, even if he’s only average there, give him star potential despite likely issues with contact. He’s a bit risky because the hit tool isn’t in place but projects as an above-average regular and potential All-Star.”

▪ Shortstop Jose Devers, acquired in the Giancarlo Stanton trade with the Yankees: A left-handed hitter, he batted .245 with one homer, nine doubles, three triples, 16 RBI and 16 steals in 19 attempts, plus 12 errors, in 53 games in rookie league, his only season in the minors. Likely at least two years away.

American League scout: “Devers is going to be a superstar. He reminds me of a smaller Tony Fernandez. His instincts are great. The impact he puts on the ball is surprising considering he’s 150 pounds. I think he will stay at shortstop and stay there for many years.”

Sirius XM’s Jim Bowden also agrees Devers will stay at shortstop and likes his “high offensive potential.”

But Law projects Devers “more likely at second than short, with some speed, but doesn’t flash or project to any above-average abilities at the plate. He’s just young, having turned 18 [on Dec. 7], but that’s his best attribute.”

Baseball America’s Jim Callis: “More of a defensive-minded shortstop. Solid runner. Contact hitter.”

Marlins vice president of scouting/player development Gary Denbo: “He’s 18 years old, but he has a body that looks like is going to be a major-league player. He has a great swing that we think … eventually will provide us an everyday major-league shortstop.”

▪ Outfielder Magneuris Sierra, acquired in the Marcell Ozuna trade with the Cardinals: Left-handed hitter batted .270 with 21 doubles, seven triples, one homer, 44 RBI and 20 steals in 30 attempts in Single A and Double A last year, then hit .317 (19 hits, all singles) in 22 games for the Cardinals. Could start in the Marlins outfield opening day or open the season in Triple A.

Law: “He’s a potentially game-changing defender in center with plus speed and good contact rates, unlikely to ever hit for power but otherwise a potential everyday player. His chance to become more than that depends more on his willingness to work the count; he puts the ball in play often, but rarely runs deep counts and thus never walks, which severely limits his [on base percentage] and thus his leadoff potential.”

Denbo: “We’re certainly going to take a good look at him as he comes into spring training this year. He definitely has the skill set to compete for a starting position at the major league level.”

Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill: “We love to tool package, the speed element. An above average defensive player, above average arm. Top of the lineup type of bat. At spacious Marlins Park, [he has an] an ability to cover ground and control the running game with his arm strength.”

▪ Infielder Christopher Torres, acquired in the Dee Gordon trade with Seattle: Switch-hitting second baseman/shortstop hit .238 with six homers, eight doubles, eight triples, 23 RBI, 14 for 17 steals in rookie league and A ball. Only 19; has 61 errors in three seasons. Likely years away.

Law: “A true shortstop who made modest progress at the plate last year but doesn’t project to make much impact with the bat and is probably a bottom-third sort of hitter if he pans out.”

Bowden: “Solid bat to ball skills with solid to above [average] defense.”

▪ First baseman Garrett Cooper, acquired from the Yankees in a trade involving primarily prospects: The right-handed hitter hit .326 with six RBI in 45 Yankees plate appearances this past season (his first big-league experience) after batting .359 with 18 homers and 84 RBI in 83 games in the upper minors in 2017. Figures to back up Justin Bour and occasionally play against lefties.

American League scout: “His swing is improved and I think he’s going to hit. Doesn’t stand out defensively but adequate.”

Denbo: “He has long arms and long legs. From my experience as a hitting coach, those guys sometimes take longer before the power emerges in their swing. Sometimes those types are late bloomers. We hope that the power that he showed over the course of last season continues to emerge and he’s an option for us at first base for the 2018 season.”

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/sp...197576439.html

Heres the Barry Jackson article I was referring to. Brinson is the best prospect, but the scouting on Harrison and Devers especially get me really excited to see what they do this year. Especially Devers. I think devers has a shot to be our Adames that they Rays got in the Price trade in that he was a much lesser known prospect who was found with good scouting and developed into a really good prospect. And i think Chris Torres has a really good shot to develop in a solid prospect as well. People who actually do the scouting say his bat isnt anything special, but his power numbers as a 19 year old last year in limited time were kind of impressive. 8 doubles, 8 triples, and 6 homers in just 202 ab's and 52 games.

[tjfla]

For the rankings crowd. 12 prospects who just missed the Top 100

3 Marlins on it

https://www.mlb.com/news/12-prospect...?tid=151437456

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Torres was big time who the Yankees(Denbo) tried to signed but something happened and ended up in Seattle. Has not lived up to it but solid prospect who needs AB's which he will get in Gboro

We have depth at SS now with Dunand/Torres/Devers/Marinez/Machado however the problem is they are ALL years away. Dunand might be ready in 2020 however doubt he sticks at SS which is why Kieboom or Garcia makes sense if we do something with Washington. However if we suck as bad as we should in 2018 there is a very nice HS SS in 2019 draft in Bobby Witt Jr at #1 as well as SS Robert Puason in 2019 IFA. (Neither would be ready till 2022/23 tho)

Isan Diaz is a wildcard. Went from Robinson Cano comps to lower value because of inury. Solid Defense at 2B and power

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Avila signed with AZ for 2/8.25

JT asking for what 3.5 million?

[lou]

For the rankings crowd. 12 prospects who just missed the Top 100

3 Marlins on it

https://www.mlb.com/news/12-prospect...?tid=151437456

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Torres was big time who the Yankees(Denbo) tried to signed but something happened and ended up in Seattle. Has not lived up to it but solid prospect who needs AB's which he will get in Gboro

We have depth at SS now with Dunand/Torres/Devers/Marinez/Machado however the problem is they are ALL years away. Dunand might be ready in 2020 however doubt he sticks at SS which is why Kieboom or Garcia makes sense if we do something with Washington. However if we suck as bad as we should in 2018 there is a very nice HS SS in 2019 draft in Bobby Witt Jr at #1 as well as SS Robert Puason in 2019 IFA. (Neither would be ready till 2022/23 tho)

Isan Diaz is a wildcard. Went from Robinson Cano comps to lower value because of inury. Solid Defense at 2B and power

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Avila signed with AZ for 2/8.25

JT asking for what 3.5 million?

What is the probability Dunand can stay at SS? Also, what's the probability Kieboom sticks at SS?

JT is going to win his arbitration at $3.5 unless his agent is incompetent