Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[fish16]

Dunand looks like a 3b to me. I see no way that kid will stick at SS. Devers and torres are SS's to me though.

[tjfla]

What is the probability Dunand can stay at SS? Also, what's the probability Kieboom sticks at SS?

JT is going to win his arbitration at $3.5 unless his agent is incompetent

I would say Kieboom is more likely to stick but they are planning to have Dunand at SS in Jupiter so? James Nelson is at 3B and Luis Pintor who is not great but solid defense at SS also in Jupiter for 2018 likely as UT guy

Kieboom and Dunand are more bat than glove types

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Dunand looks like a 3b to me. I see no way that kid will stick at SS. Devers and torres are SS's to me though.

Ya he looks like a 3B to everyone but ARod and Dunand. Already to big (6'2 210) and his glove is iffy for 3B let alone SS

If Dunand or Kieboom show they can hit u move them to 3B and make Brian Anderson a 1B. Its a good problem to have

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Keep adding talent for 2020/2021 and when the time comes figure it out then.

Sign the 21 yr old Cuban LF Martinez,Draft 3 College Guys in Top 75 Picks in 2018 Draft/Draft BPA with 3 of Top 50 Picks in 2019 and trade JT,Bour,Straily,Ziegler,Castro,Bearclaw,other vets for prospects/under 25 yr olds no matter what position they play

Go into 2020 with a 40-50 million dollar payroll and spend 40 million in FA on holes

[lou]

Better spend more than $40 million, but that's besides the point.

They are flat out going to add a shitload of guys from what they have left to trade. I think this is very understated that they have some good assets left. I think it's interesting to look at articles such as this, which are certainly flawed to no offense of the author as this is difficult, but does try to establish a baseline (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valu...100-prospects/). If we're judging a win in free agency at $10 million dollars which seems pretty agreed upon....

Realmuto - Worth $90-120 million, costs $20 million through arbitration, so he’s worth something like $70-100 million in prospects. I would think he should be closer to $100 versus $70 as catcher is a very difficult position to fill and an acquiring team will certainly have a golden opportunity to extend him two years, which if they do so, could turn him into an overall asset worth definitively worth over $100+. I would say $80 minimum in prospects, closer to $90 million in value.

Straily- Worth $45-60 million, more if he breaks out, costs $15-20 million, worth $35-40ish in prospects depending on how much you believe in him, especially if they wait until the deadline and he looks good

Dietrich - Worth $45-60 million, costs $15 millionish. Unlike Bour, he can play a few spots, is younger, and probably has some upside, but some teams might view him as a premier super sub. I would anticipate him being at his lower end here unless he really produces early in 2018, but he’s probably still worth $30 million in prospects.

Barraclough - Worth $30-60 million, costs $10-25 million based on getting saves or not. Hard to judge with RP volatility, but I think estimating him in the middle at $40ish, costing $15ish with a few saves and RP are getting more expensive is fair, so he’s probably worth around $25+ in prospects

Bour - Worth $40-50 million, costs $15 millionish worth $25+ in prospects (safe to assume to be lower end here with his age/corner bats get no love)

Castro - Worth $30-40+ million based on last 2 years stats but prior in his career he has had a bigger higher end and could be viewed as a $50-60 value. Regardless, he costs $22 million. He is young, plays a more desirable position, does have some upside as his bat came around last year, and has a club option on year 3 if he works out. This is an eye of the beholder and need scenario, but to a believer he is probably worth at least $30+ million in prospects, but he does have some downside so some teams probably look at him closer to $20 until he proves last year was for real again. Marlins might be able to max him out with a good 3 month showing and he gets cheaper after they have paid half his 2018 salary to start the year.

Prado - Probably worth between $30-40, his contract is $28, so he’s ideally worth maybe $10 million to another team in prospects. If he proves health, gets to the deadline productive, even better if he plays like 2015-2016, I could see him getting to the $20+ million value range. Definitely a low level prospect at best that would slot into Marlins top 21-30.

Ziegler/Tazawa - Worth somewhere $5-10 million, costs $9/7 respectively. They are not worth really anything until the deadline where the Marlins might get a C+/C arm. Could be use in a bad contract exchange (i.e. Wieters)

Prospect equivalents loosely based on FG article...

Tier 1 (FV60/55) - Brinson/Harrison/Guzman - (Realmuto piece 1, less than Brinson, better than Harrison, a FV60/55 type, i.e. Soto on the Nationals is perfect value wise)

Tier 2 (FV50+) - Diaz/Rogers (Realmuto piece 2, Straily piece 1, not quite top 100 guys but still pretty good)

Tier 3 (FV45+) - Anderson/Sierra/Niedert (Realmuto piece 3, Straily piece 2, Dietrich, Barraclough, Bour, Castro, piece 1, second division starters, preferred platoon options, backend rotation, plus bullpen guys)

Tier 4 (FV40+) - B. Lee/C. Torres/Yamamoto/E. Cabrera (Realmuto piece 4, Straily piece 3, Dietrich, Barraclough, Bour, Castro piece 2, Prado piece 1... hopefully bench guys, normal relievers, raw 18 year olds/lottery tickets 4+ years away that jump up rankings with a skill improvement)

Right now it's probably something like 1 really good, 2 pretty good, 6 alright, and 7 ok/lottery prospects. Who the hell knows what this team looks like after they finish the purge, spend the 2018 draft picks on whatever, and god willingly get Martinez/someone similar in IFA this summer. That's going to be 20 more dudes someone can say something nice about, at least a third of which probably everyone generally likes.

It's going to be a mess for 2 years, but hey whatever at this point. Burn it to the ground by at latest the trade deadline this year.

[fish16]

Im of the opinion that you burn it to the ground by the deadline, take as many swings and misses as possible prospect wise in those trades, then re-evaluate next year in the offseason and see what we have. I really do think we've done a great job adding quality depth in the organization. We're missing that 1 mega prospect, but given that we'll likely be picking top 2 in 2019 and we are gonna start spending in IFA (hopefully) and then will have money to spend in free agency given how many cost controlled guys we'll have, we're in a very good spot relatively given that we are in year 1 of a rebuild. I just hope we continue to build it like the Braves, White sox, Padres, Cubs did, and others have done, and dont mess up a few years worth of work on 1 mega trade in the future. I think teams like the Sox and the Braves going after major pieces via trade before most of those guys have had a chance to impact the ML roster is not a good way to go about things. The team just needs to continue to be patient and stick to the process, and given how cost strapped this ownership seems to be i dont think thats gonna be a huge problem in the future.

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Charlie: If you were the Nats, what prospects would you be willing to give up to get Realmuto? Robles? Soto?
Keith Law: Soto & Kieboom would be a great return for Miami, but I also think that’s fair given Realmuto’s age, cost, and production.

Keith law's assessment of a realmuto deal in his chat today.

[flamarlins93]

and U/others will shit on it unless they get Robles back. Kieboom is a bad centerpiece for a JT deal however if they get something like Kieboom,Fedde,Daniel Johnson,Severino and Antuna or Garcia(5 for 1 and one of the 18 yr olds) it is decent and we would be betting on the 18 yr old we get. I would prefer and is fair too-Soto,Kieboom,Severino and mid level arm or NOTHING but if they get 5 fot him I could understand it

As for Avila it didn't change much,Nats are focused on JT and still other teams looking for a C.Nats didn't think Avila was big difference from Wieters

I don't care if they get Robles but if they don't I feel they have to get Soto. I want no part of a deal with Taylor taking place of them or Fedde. I guess when they settle it has to be Keiboom, two of Fedde, Crowe and Romero, one of Antuna, Garcia or Johnson and Read plus one lower level prospect. I still think they have to get Soto tho I really hate the idea of settling for less for Realmuto trading in the division.

[lou]

I don't care if they get Robles but if they don't I feel they have to get Soto. I want no part of a deal with Taylor taking place of them or Fedde. I guess when they settle it has to be Keiboom, two of Fedde, Crowe and Romero, one of Antuna, Garcia or Johnson and Read plus one lower level prospect. I still think they have to get Soto tho I really hate the idea of settling for less for Realmuto trading in the division.

I can't imagine a scenario Realmuto is netting 6 guys. That may line up value wise not getting any premier talent, but you kind of have to get premier talent for one, and two the Nationals are really gutting their farm system doing that. You're throwing a lot of darts at the board there if you are the Marlins and you might get screwed if you're the Nats. It doesn't really make sense for either team.

Realmuto makes $3.5 million and would be wonderful for the Marlins young pitchers. You just sit and wait. A Soto level deal will eventually come from someone before this deadline.

However, Realmuto is really valuable right now (as mentioned in posts above). Easy $80-100 million valuation even with his expected contract figures, with the opportunity to go $100+ if a team acquiring him smartly signs him for 5+ years. A lot of that leverage goes away if they keep him this year (ala Ozuna with only 2 years of control. I think Realmuto is much more valuable than Ozuna right now). Even a 3.5+ WAR projectable Realmuto next year for 2 years is probably only worth $60-70 million after you take his contract into play, and assumed some sort of compensatory pick in 2 years. It's probably in the Marlins benefit to ship him out now and max him out as he is a real diminishing asset as he gets more expensive/potential he does not repeat a 3.5 WAR/no chance for a buyout 2 years from free agency, unlike Straily/Bour/Castro/Dietrich who are pretty much are who they are and the prospect situation probably isn't changing much no matter what they do (unless they totally suck).

Best bet is probably to move him before the year and keep calling the Nationals bluff. They are out of their mind to not include Soto in Harper, Murphy, and Gio's walk year and a season before Max/Straus cost a combined $75 million in payroll (just laughed out loud at Cot's salary excel when I saw that figure for 2019. Some of it has to be deferred).

Soto, Kieboom, Fedde/Crow/Romero, and Read/Severino is the deal, and if they twist their arm to take Wieters, just send them back Tazawa or Ziegler and maybe $2 million to make the deal salary neutral, get another super low level C+ all fastball/no control arm if even necessary, and call it a day. You hate to help someone in the division, but this is a true win-win and hope the Marlins kick their ass in 2021.

I want better pitching coming back, but hey, Soto is pretty good and I like the secondary guys. 2018 draft all pitching if it happens.

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$25 million of that looks to be deferred for Max/Scherzer

They are paying Scherzer $15 million in 2028. That is some next level Bobby Bonilla shit.

[fish16]

I don't care if they get Robles but if they don't I feel they have to get Soto. I want no part of a deal with Taylor taking place of them or Fedde. I guess when they settle it has to be Keiboom, two of Fedde, Crowe and Romero, one of Antuna, Garcia or Johnson and Read plus one lower level prospect. I still think they have to get Soto tho I really hate the idea of settling for less for Realmuto trading in the division.

Agreed. Need Soto. Although i could see being happy if its an incredibly deep package led by Keiboom and Fedde and, say, 3 other good prospect, I doubt we get 5 prospects for JT, and i think we need another star type prospect. Soto is that prospect (we're not getting Robles.)

[flamarlins93]

I agree you probably won't get all of that but if you don't I would say no deal. Screw that Kieboom Taylor Sevarino crap that don't cut it. If they want to keep their best two and its a huge dropoff after that prospect wise then you have to get back a ton. Some time between now and the trade deadline someone will step up and give up quality for Realmuto can't settle for less.

[fish16]

I agree you probably won't get all of that but if you don't I would say no deal. Screw that Kieboom Taylor Sevarino crap that don't cut it. If they want to keep their best two and its a huge dropoff after that prospect wise then you have to get back a ton. Some time between now and the trade deadline someone will step up and give up quality for Realmuto can't settle for less.

I think so too. I think we'll end up getting Soto though. Nats still have Robles and given their free agent rumored interest I think they see a window closing with Harper potentially leaving and I think they're gonna end up going for it all getting JT as well as somehow getting another top pitcher. Barraclough really does make so much sense for them in a deal too though so i wont be surprised if that ends up happening. Ziegler at the least. Would make sense given their need for a RP and us trying to cut some salary.

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I hope they dont go for Michael Taylor. Would be so foolish imo. I really dont think he's a good player either for our plans or just in general.

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Just go JT and Ziegler for Soto, Kieboom, Read, a low level flier guy Denbo likes and Wieters.

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Btw anyone know where we're at salary wise as of right now? Spotrac doesnt factor in the arbitration numbers yet so its hard to figure out.

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Realmuto apparently had his arbitration hearing today too btw.

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Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins
Alcantara can be enigmatic as a pitching prospect, one who throws triple-digit fastballs but doesn't miss as many bats as one might expect him to. But he has two solid secondary pitches to go along with that heater, and there's still time for it all to click.

This is the tidbit on Alcantara in the mlb.com "prospects who just missed the top 100" thing. I thought alcantara's problem was that his secondary stuff wasnt great. Is his problem just a lack of control for his otherwise solid repertoire?

[sports24/7]

Depends on the package as a whole, but likely no

I don't care if they give them their next best 10 prospects. A deal where he's the best player isn't a good one for Realmuto.

[Erick]

It makes the most sense to keep JT Realmuto.

[sports24/7]

So Lewis Brinson is a pretty easy guy to root for. He seems all about being a Marlin.

https://twitter.com/LewisBrinson/sta...88836913881088

[fish16]

It makes the most sense to keep JT Realmuto.

unless he signs an extension, it makes 0 sense to keep him.

[rmc523]

unless he signs an extension, it makes 0 sense to keep him.

You won't be happy until we dump everybody for whatever package we're offered, will you?

[fish16]

You won't be happy until we dump everybody for whatever package we're offered, will you?

At this point thats what we need to do. What sense does it make to keep realmuto unless he signs an extension? And it's not "whatever package offered." Get the best package you can get, but keeping him makes 0 sense at this point.

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TO elaborate, I just think it's way to risky to keep him given how much we're gonna lose the next 2 years at least. You can try to sell him on a vision, but if he doesnt buy into that vision, youre just losing value on our best remaining asset. The very best case scenario if he doesnt sign an extension is that we have to outbid other teams in free agency, which is a bad way to spend money and also risks losing him for nothing just to be bad for the next few years.