Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[emkayseven]

They should be gone because this team is not competing in the timeframe in which they'll be around.

If you're lucky you're competing at the tail end of Yelich's contract, which means he's getting old and value is decreasing but you'll be in a position where you'll have to resign him for poor value.

And also, PR wise, just rip the band-aid off. Do Yelich and JT bring more fans to the ballpark? Probably not. But if next offseason the Marlins make two MORE blockbuster trades? It's all "here they go AGAIN!"

[lou]

They should be gone because this team is not competing in the timeframe in which they'll be around.

If you're lucky you're competing at the tail end of Yelich's contract, which means he's getting old and value is decreasing but you'll be in a position where you'll have to resign him for poor value.

And also, PR wise, just rip the band-aid off. Do Yelich and JT bring more fans to the ballpark? Probably not. But if next offseason the Marlins make two MORE blockbuster trades? It's all "here they go AGAIN!"

You have no basis to state the team is not competing 20-22. The only way you get there is assume their best 15+ prospects, and whatever they get back for Bour/Straily/Castro/Barraclough/etc., mostly tank. No one knows what will happen. Maybe they are right and they get most of their rotation out of Alcantara/Guzman/Rogers/Garret/Neidert/Peters/Gonzalez/etc.? Maybe Sierra and Anderson are pretty solid 2+ WAR players? Who knows.

The smart thing to do is trade out everyone with 2+ years of service time besides Yelich and Realmuto, and see where you land. Both are easily tradeable in 2019 and there value isn't going to be decreased as two core guys in their prime. Maybe the 2017/2018 trades don't work out, but this at least gives them a fighting chance of getting better faster with Yelich/Realmuto in their primes if they are indeed correct on these players. There is no harm here. Yelich and Realmuto are easy guys to trade. 20 teams will be lined up next year if they are available. Who cares if it is a here we go again headline. If that happens where they do have to trade these guys, it means 2018 was devastating to the farm. Maybe the headline before that is "Mike Hill fired" and that should make people happy.

Also, Yelich is going to be 30 the entire 2022 season. Realmuto 31 (assuming they smartly buy him out for 5). Those are prime years and a bargain with what they bring. I don't get the old comment. Those years are exactly when you want those players. A contract year in their prime playing for their likely last big contract.

[Namaste]

The Marlins need a true rebuild.

If they keep Yelich and Realmuto, they still have a bottom third farm system.



How could we (reasonable diehard Marlins fans) possibly be ok with going into the 2018/2019 years with a bottom third farm system?


New ownership either needed to sign a #1 and a #2 and keep everyone else or burn the entire thing down.

NOTHING in between that works for me.

[rmc523]

The Marlins need a true rebuild.

If they keep Yelich and Realmuto, they still have a bottom third farm system.



How could we (reasonable diehard Marlins fans) possibly be ok with going into the 2018/2019 years with a bottom third farm system?


New ownership either needed to sign a #1 and a #2 and keep everyone else or burn the entire thing down.

NOTHING in between that works for me.

Except, knowing us, we'll trade them and STILL have a bottom third farm system.

[lou]

The Marlins need a true rebuild.

If they keep Yelich and Realmuto, they still have a bottom third farm system.



How could we (reasonable diehard Marlins fans) possibly be ok with going into the 2018/2019 years with a bottom third farm system?


New ownership either needed to sign a #1 and a #2 and keep everyone else or burn the entire thing down.

NOTHING in between that works for me.

I think advocating for trading every single player in the organization with over 2 years of service time during the 2018 calendar year - except 2 - is burning it down. Pretty emphatically actually.

[sports24/7]

The Marlins need a true rebuild.

If they keep Yelich and Realmuto, they still have a bottom third farm system.



How could we (reasonable diehard Marlins fans) possibly be ok with going into the 2018/2019 years with a bottom third farm system?


New ownership either needed to sign a #1 and a #2 and keep everyone else or burn the entire thing down.

NOTHING in between that works for me.

With what we've heard mentioned for the return on these guys (and based off of history), they will still be a bottom half farm system after trading all of those guys, with no players with real big time potential. They already botched the rebuild, unless they get lucky and all of these guys hit the absolute high water mark for them, which is unlikely. If the rumors of this team being ready to spend again for 2020, then you'll have both guys with years left on their deals, get decent development from an Anderson/Rogers/Garrett, and hopefully will have hit on one or two of the guys you brought back in this fire sale. You can then use free agency to supplement your team, and that's a respectable team. If you trade those guys, and don't bring anything more than mid-rotation pitchers and mediocre position players, you're worse off than you are now.

Now, if you can get legitimately good deals for these guys, that's different. I won't believe they can do that until they prove it, though.

[lou]

With what we've heard mentioned for the return on these guys (and based off of history), they will still be a bottom half farm system after trading all of those guys, with no players with real big time potential. They already botched the rebuild, unless they get lucky and all of these guys hit the absolute high water mark for them, which is unlikely. If the rumors of this team being ready to spend again for 2020, then you'll have both guys with years left on their deals, get decent development from an Anderson/Rogers/Garrett, and hopefully will have hit on one or two of the guys you brought back in this fire sale. You can then use free agency to supplement your team, and that's a respectable team. If you trade those guys, and don't bring anything more than mid-rotation pitchers and mediocre position players, you're worse off than you are now.

Now, if you can get legitimately good deals for these guys, that's different. I won't believe they can do that until they prove it, though.

If you really break down the math and you need a 35+ WAR team to start being considered an 85+ win ball club on paper (Twins/Rockies basically this last year):

Yelich and Realmuto - 8
An above average bullpen - 4 (I don't think this will be hard for them to do)

So can they develop 5-6, 2+ WAR players by 20/21 with what is currently in the farm? If we were at gun point, we would probably say Sierra, Anderson, Alcantara, Guzman, Rogers, Niedert, and Garret are the only guys who plausibly fit this bill. Low margin of error indeed. However, they are going to trade out Bour/Straily/Castro/Barraclough which will net probably a few more names for this cluster, they have plucked 2+ WAR guys (Uggla, Ross, Bour, etc.) out of nowhere before, and who knows maybe someone unexpected turns into a good player. No one here thought Realmuto would be a top 5 catcher in baseball 4 years ago.

Something like this gets you 2/3rds the way to contending with developing no real star players, and including Chen, 2020 payroll is around $60 million. There is room to get 2-3 impact guys there under $100 million easy. Let alone, maybe they do hit the ceiling on one or two of the guys and they turn into the next Realmuto level player.

I understand this is a hard vision to think they have 5-6 normal starting calibre players in the farm right now (and I agree with everyone, they probably don't), but I just think it is very fair to give them this season to see if these guys are going to turn into real players, or they acquire some others in the other moves. Literally 15+ more guys are going to be coming back in trades and who knows what they get.

If they don't and these prospects all stink, no one here can tell me Yelich with 4 years of control or Realmuto with 2 or more years of control (if they sign him or not) aren't insanely valuable and they can trade them for something just as awesome as they can trade them right now. I mean they could get hurt, but let's not play that game.

No harm in keeping those two for this year. Maybe this all works out and they are the cornerstones for good 20-22 teams. If not, their returns from a 2019 trade just join the 18/19/20 draft classes as hope for the future.

It's really that easy.

[fish16]

Why should Yelich and Realmuto be gone? You would really be content trading those guys for a package of guys that end up being inferior when they get to the majors? I agree with you that the rest should be gone because none of them are anything special and/or won't be here by the time they're ready to contend, but both of those players are young, cheap, and under control for a while. If you're not ready to compete by the last couple of years of their deals, you failed in your rebuild anyway. If you can land big time prospects, that's one thing. It doesn't sound like that is the case, though.

id be good either way. Either decide to build around them or trade them. Really isnt a right or wrong answer rebuilding wise either way.

[sports24/7]

id be good either way. Either decide to build around them or trade them. Really isnt a right or wrong answer rebuilding wise either way.

IMO, the only "wrong answer" is to trade those two without getting great deals back. Keeping them, or trading them for legitimately big hauls would both be good outcomes, though.

[rmc523]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/...y-woodrum.html

Marlins hired Bradley Woodrum to join the analytics department.

Back in 2015, Bradley Woodrum applied for a project we were launching on MLBTR: an attempt to create a model that predicts the chance of a pitcher having Tommy John surgery (updated last September). I knew Brad from his stellar work at FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. The Tommy John project was a daunting undertaking, and I was amazed by Brad’s analytical abilities, professionalism, and perseverance in getting the project to the finish line. It took the better part of a year, but Brad delivered what I considered to be the best possible TJS prediction model, given the limitations of public data. I’m proud to have hosted that work on MLBTR. Armed with the superior data of a Major League club, I expect Brad to do great things.

[tjfla]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/...y-woodrum.html

Marlins hired Bradley Woodrum to join the analytics department.

Is there another team who could use a guy who "predicts" TJ more than us??

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I dont pay but if anyone has "The Athletic" Jim Bowden has article about. Likely to be dealt,to whom and for what(Yelich/JT)

https://theathletic.com/209347/2018/...fits-and-more/

[lou]

Realmuto requested $3.5 in arb, Marlins $2.9.

MLBTR projected $4.2 so way off.

I think Realmuto easily wins here. Even more support that they can probably get him for a 5 year deal. Probably for less than the Salvador Perez deal (5/$52.5) I've been mouthing off based on these numbers.

[rmc523]

We signed Jumbo Diaz to a minor league deal with an invite to ST.

[Nick]

All I want in life is for Jumbo Diaz to play for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp.

[fish16]

Nice signing in getting Scott Van Slyke on a minor league deal too.