Marlins trade Mat Latos, Mike Morse to LA

[Todd]

Dont know why they don't make a run at Arenado who is apparently not happy in Colorado. Granted, he probably wouldn't be happy coming into this shitshow either.

[Bobbob1313]

There's an alternate universe where the Marlins take Rodon instead of Kolek and trade Nicolino and Kiké for Gordon and the future looks a lot brighter.

Of all the things they've done, picking Nicolino+Kolek over Heaney+Rodon would be the absolute biggest franchise killer of all, if true. Those two moves were individually hard to justify, but together are ruinous. I'm never going to let that go.

[rmc523]

Dont know why they don't make a run at Arenado who is apparently not happy in Colorado. Granted, he probably wouldn't be happy coming into this shitshow either.

What would they even have to offer Colorado? I mean I assume they'd want pitching...

[Todd]

Am I bad in my thinking that over the long term, the difference between Dee Gordon and Kike Hernandez might not be wide enough to justify all the other pieces they gave up to acquire Gordon? Because he is looking more and more like a bottom of the order guy with no power who will always struggle to consistently get on base.

[Jay]

Am I bad in my thinking that over the long term, the difference between Dee Gordon and Kike Hernandez might not be wide enough to justify all the other pieces they gave up to acquire Gordon? Because he is looking more and more like a bottom of the order guy with no power who will always struggle to consistently get on base.

I've said that since april.

[HUGG]

Todd and Jay are the sports takes dream team.

[Jay]

I finally looked up the guys. I'd rather have latos arbitration accepted or the 2 draft picks

[Miamarlin21]

This has been a wild, wild ride. It was fun reading over this entire thread since I was at work all day and only on Twitter and MLBTR. Sorry I missed it.

[thatnewguy]

We look at the roster and we can argue whether or not there aren't glaring holes or not, but doesn't anyone see what's within that? Think about it. I don't think anyone would say that players like Hechavarria or Realmuto are terrible. They aren't. They are perfectly serviceable major league players who are young and have room and time to improve. That seems like a good thing, sure, but I think that's where this organization lies. We have two definite stars: Fernandez and Stanton. We have guys who we think will be good in Yelich. But everyone else cause opinions ranging from bad to good and, in most cases, are just average. The Marlins core is that, just average. We were projected by most every reputable source to be a 79-win to 83-win team, fitting that description. I think if injuries hadn't taken there toll and seeing the performances we've gotten, we'd finish at about 75 or so wins. That's not that far off, basically saying that this team hasn't even really underachieved that much.

The Marlins don't have many glaring holes since everyone who starts on a regular basis, sans McGehee, is an okay player. But the problem is, we don't have any players who are special outside of one. Yelich is good, and most definitely has the potential to be great, but is not there yet. Ozuna is talented but way too inconsistent for me to say that he's good right now. Hechavarria has improved each season but will never be much more than he is now. Gordon is a good player and I don't see how anyone can argue against that, but he's a really nice piece on a team that already has great players around him rather than the lone good piece on a bad team. I like Realmuto but it's way to early to predict what he'll be. He'll ever be on the level of a Buster Posey or Yadier Molina, but that's asking way too much. As for Prado, he is what he is at this point and guys like Dietrich have never gotten enough playing time to see whether or not they're good anyway. That to me sound mediocre, which is what the Marlins were projected to be anyway. They may not have glaring holes, but they have positions that are most certainly up-gradable. Couple that with a pitching staff that outside of Fernandez is an absolute mess, and you get a bad team. When that bad team suffers through injuries to its three highest WAR players, you get the 2nd-worst record in the sport.

At this point, I wonder if the Marlins should basically just blow the whole thing up and hang on to a handful of guys. Some are untouchable: Stanton, Fernandez, Yelich, Capps, Gordon come to mind. Stanton and Yelich are locked-in. Capps is one of the most dominant relievers I've ever seen. Dee Gordon, to his credit, has been one of the best second basemen in baseball this year, a position that's been a trainwreck for the Marlins in recent years, and Fernandez--23-year-old, controllable aces don't grow on trees, you know? But outside of that, every position is basically "meh" this point out. You keep Hech, maybe. Realmuto because catchers aren't really available, either. But 1B is a weak spot right now, as is 3B. We have Ichiro and Cole Gillespie getting at-bats because Ozuna has been flat awful in 2 of his 3 seasons. And the pitching staff is just bad even being bolstered by the park they play in.

[Jay]

You could make an argument Dee has gotten worse offensively this year. He's swinging at more pitches, swing at more pitches out of the zone, making less contact, and his baserunning has been significantly worse. He's been lucky more than anything.

[Jay]

The bullpen is fine. The starting line up is fine. I still say sell high on dee. The bench and rotation are awful. You get two number 2s or and ace and a 3 and the rotation is set. That leaves a bench which isn't hard to do.

The problem is every trade asset has been wasted. There is absolutely know depth. And they won't go sign two starters or a bench. We'll be lucky if they sign 1 starter and find 1 good bench player.

It's why the dee trade sucks so much. We gave up 2 bench players and the 3rd best starter in the organization for a 2nd baseman and a 5th starter. 3 of the best depth bats cold play 2nd and we had a ton of 5th starters but only an ace who was out half the year and a 2 who was a time bomb.

[Namaste]

So Erick just basically told us that we have a good team because we're not the Phillies?

I think I just read him saying that the Marlins don't have any glaring holes.

I have insomnia so maybe I didn't read his posts right.

- - - - - - - - - -

The Miami Marlins: We've Been Rebuilding For 10 Years.

[lou]

You do realize this is the third different trade that featured them giving up more in talent in order to get more money covered since the end of last season, right? You realize they had the lowest payroll in baseball this season, despite spending something like $130 million less on payroll than the average MLB team over the previous two seasons, right?

There's zero reason to be optimistic about them re-investing the money. If it happens, cool. But you have to completely blind yourself to both the very recent and not-so-distance past of this ownership group to believe they will serious re-invest the money. In a vacuum, this deal is imminently defensible, and the points you are making make sense. Nothing happens in a vacuum.

They'll still have the lowest payroll in baseball next season, they'll continue to make dumb decisions, and they'll continue to do everything possible not to spend money in every facet of the game. That's the status quo. That is what everything they've done over the last decade-plus points to. This trade does nothing to make me believe that status quo has changed or will change.

I don't disagree at all that they make dumb decisions and this won't change the status quo. Cishek should have been moved before the season started to save (and reinvest) his $6.6 million into something else with suitable replacements in Caminero, Capps, and Dyson (all slated for minors preseason). Rodon over Kolek is obvious, plus going under slot on Naylor and not taking a higher rated player. They need to stop this string of Bell, Buck, Salty, and Morse of absolutely abysmal signings, even if they looked OK on paper when doing them. I get that they cover 100% of their payroll on revenue sharing, let alone the gate and other revenue and there is no reason to not have a $100 million payroll. I get they are bottom 5 in analytics in the league and well behind the curve in scouting which is clearly hurting them.

But we can't all be mad at this trade. This is a drop in the bucket to what the real problems are, and really, it's a positive move considering the hand that was dealt. I feel this is pent up frustration of them sucking so long, rather than analytical to what they just did.

-I think it is fair to say no one expected Morse to be this bad. He was owed around $11 million this and next season. The fact they had to make a reactionary trade on him because he was so bad is difficult to criticize. Yes, they created this situation by signing him, but again, no one expected he would be this bad and I find it hard to criticize them for that even if they do need to own some of that responsibility.
-I think it's fair to say Latos would net a worse prospect than DeScalfani in a trade right now. Latos is owed around $3 million the rest of this season.
-The value of that draft pick (i.e. how you put it, a lottery ticket), is probably the value of a solid middle reliever (i.e., Morris type) on trade market. Pick would cost them at least $1.5 million.

What's better, to get a slightly worse prospect than DeScalfani, have that competitive pick for a top 8-12 prospect in the system, and have Morse get whatever AB he would get on the bench, or wash your hands clean, get a few maybe bullpen arms, and take that $15 million bucks and use it smarter. I think you can use that money smarter. Those players are not worth $15.

Of course if they pocket it, I mean...

But not to sound like a broken record, and to not be blind of the recent front office, they just signed Stanton to $325, signed their first buyout of a young guy with Yelich for around $50 million bucks, made aggressive trades for Latos, Gordon, Haren, and Prado and shed a number of young pitchers to do it, and filled out the bench and pen with solid everyday veterans (Baker, Crow, Ichiro). That is a radical offseason for them, and we can respectfully disagree on this, I suspect them to fill out the roster the same way next year. They pretty much need a platoon partner for Bour, another 4th OF/bench bat, 1 really good SP, and 1 innings eater (or keep Phelps in the rotation and get a 1 year veteran for the pen). They probably still trade Haren, Koehler, and Dunn at a minimum (saves another $8 and likely nets more reliever arms for AA), and can come in at payroll next year at $55-60, and having saved around $25 million from payroll through these trades.

This is a wait and see if they spend it smartly. That's how this shakes down. It will be beyond insulting if they do not use 100% of the traded money, plus more to "raise salary" as promised. I understand the skepticism, but I'll wait until January to get mad. They did do a lot of maneuvering last offseason. There is no sense getting mad right now except that we have to watch this crap team for 60 more games.

As for the rest, you'd hope they are getting smarter and realize things like trading high on relievers and need a better scouting office to not blow these FA moves and draft picks. There is no answer or defense for that, and that's the real issue.

[Nick]

The bullpen is fine. The starting line up is fine. I still say sell high on dee. The bench and rotation are awful. You get two number 2s or and ace and a 3 and the rotation is set. That leaves a bench which isn't hard to do.

The problem is every trade asset has been wasted. There is absolutely know depth. And they won't go sign two starters or a bench. We'll be lucky if they sign 1 starter and find 1 good bench player.

It's why the dee trade sucks so much. We gave up 2 bench players and the 3rd best starter in the organization for a 2nd baseman and a 5th starter. 3 of the best depth bats cold play 2nd and we had a ton of 5th starters but only an ace who was out half the year and a 2 who was a time bomb.

I honestly think we have a decent bench within the organization, the problem is we haven't used it properly.

A bench of:

Ichiro
Dietrich
Rojas
Gillespie
Mathis

Is not that bad, I'd like to upgrade backup catcher, but you have a lot of guys who can play different positions, a defensive wiz in Rojas, power-bat in Dietrich, pinch-hitter in Ichiro.

- - - - - - - - - -

Bigger problem is lack of depth in AAA, where if someone goes down you have to immediately call up a Solano.

[Jay]

I honestly think we have a decent bench within the organization, the problem is we haven't used it properly.

A bench of:

Ichiro
Dietrich
Rojas
Gillespie
Mathis

Is not that bad, I'd like to upgrade backup catcher, but you have a lot of guys who can play different positions, a defensive wiz in Rojas, power-bat in Dietrich, pinch-hitter in Ichiro.

- - - - - - - - - -

Bigger problem is lack of depth in AAA, where if someone goes down you have to immediately call up a Solano.

I don't mind that bench that much, but it hasn't been the bench most of the year. And as much as I'd like to consider bring Ichiro back he's been worth -0.7 wins this year. He's been a plus defender in the corners this year (UZR). His contact is up and he's swinging at less pitches. He's not going to have power, but he's managed 5 extra base hits this year 1 double 3 triples and a HR, so that seems lower. He's also currently got his lowest BABIP in his career. The thing concerning is from 2011 to 2013, he had a BABIP at or below .300 while before then his lowest was .316 in 2005 and never below .330 in another season. I would guess some doubles, 30 points higher BABIP, and not playing CF would fix the WAR to be a positive. I'd resign him if you think he hits 3000, but he's at 2901 now so that's questionable.