2013 Trade Deadline Talk

[Bobbob1313]

Well, I've explained one possible thought process. *shrugs*

[Mainge]

And I don't really agree. It's all good

[Bobbob1313]

manger pls

[Cambridge]

Nicolino's ceiling is a #3, I don't think anyone has every said otherwise. He was never going to keep up the K/9 at Lansing, but still lefties with plus changeups and average velocity are valuable. No one ever seems to talk about Conley, he struggled at the start of the year but has been awesome for two months now (few too many walks maybe - if being super critical).

Turner is a #3 and a #2 if he finally works out how to put his sw/strike rate to good use. I think Turner/Eovaldi/Alvarez are all guys who are not the finished article but all have scope to improve their peripherals through some small changes in their approach. I agree the great defence behind allows them to outperform their peripherals and continue to do so.

I thought Fangraphs did something on whether 'pitching to contact' is a viable long term plan. I can't remember the results though - may search later - the defence does seem able to get them out of a lot of jams. I think overlooked is the effect of the bullpen - which despite some dodgy moments has on the whole been exceptional this year.

For interest the Marlins pitching staff was #1 in WAR for July, (best bullpen and #2 rotation).

Something that may not have been noticed - Marlins are now only the 3rd worst team in baseball, with others tanking at the deadline the #1/#2 draft pick may no longer happen. I said this team was never going to win 70 games (well more precisely that this team was less likely to win 70 than 06) they need to go 28-27 the rest of the way which is a distinct possibility.

Going back to Nicolino and the whole Blue Jays trade, I have been keeping an eye on JJ's starts. He has been downright terrible all year, his peripherals look good but just seems to get whacked all over the show everytime he goes out there. To tie in to the above, based on what I said before about the Marlins defence, the Blue Jays are pretty terrible defensively - see Cabrera's non-catch recently as a worst case scenario. Seems like JJ has no confidence in them (or his fastball), I think the confidence playing in front of guys you know are going to make the plays makes a huge difference and I think the Marlins may FINALLY have actually gone down the pitching/defence route they had repeatedly, and incorrectly, said they had been doing since 06. (Also the Rogers Centre is a terrible place to pitch).

[marlinsfan24]

I'm not sure what the first sentence means. I mean, I know what it means, but I don't know how it applies to the context of the discussion.

Also, I know I'm in the minority, but I think Eovaldi can become way better than what he currently is.

I am with you, I believe in Eovaldi and Turner. Not so much in Alvarez.
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Worth noting that his groundball percentage is down and his line drive percentage is up. It's not just that his strikeouts are way down.

I also don't see why it's a bad thing to want strikeouts. Generally speaking, guys with high K rates have a lower babip and hr/fb%. Guys that strike out other guys are usually good.

One thing that should be noted, he started the season hurt and only struck out 15 in his first 34.2 innings, but finished with 49 in 62 innings to end his High-A season. So while his overall numbers aren't pretty, digging deeper makes it accurate to say his stock has not taken a dip.

[lou]

I know they wouldn't do this, but I think it would be fun if they turned Eovaldi and Alvarez into RP next year and just had them throw max effort stuff out of the pen. If their ceiling is a backend starter, which I think is the general consensus everywhere, why not just have them throw darts and turn into a David Hernandez (I know he sucks this year, but he has been pretty awesome last few years once Baltimore stopped starting him and example off top of my head). Oh Wade Davis. That's a good one.

If they did something like this for 2014

SP - Fernandez, Turner, Heaney (you know he's up in April), "Top Top SP prospect for Stanton" (because they are going to trade him), 1 year Veteran FA SP/Slowey/whoever

RP - Cishek, Dunn, Eovaldi, Alvarez, Ramos, Jennings, Koehler

High Minors - Nicolino, Conley, Urena, Flynn, Olmos, Dayton, Ames, Wall, DeSclafani, Wittigren, etc.

Moving forward, you have Fernandez and three other 2/3 potential young SP, you'd have Nicolino and likely a top 5 2014 pick to move into the rotation in a year, if a rash of injuries happen you can just stretch out Eovaldi/Alvarez/Koehler, the bullpen is club controlled for 4+ seasons (besides Dunn, who is at 3), and there are at least another few relievers in that high minors group for depth. I love that staff short and long term. That bullpen would be ridiculous.

I'd be satisfied with Yelich/Marisnick/Ozuna/Ruggiano as the outfield core, giving Hechavarria a few years, waiting on Moran, hoping to get one long term starter out of Morrison/Dietrich/Brantly/Realmuto, another in that trade for Stanton, and then figuring out whatever else in free agency.

[Mainge]

I think you have to let them fail as starters first before going to the bullpen. Beyond that, as a philosophical thing, what's more valuable? 200 league average innings or 60 good innings? I don't know the answer to that question.

Let's let them fail and/or let these other guys actually succeed and push them to the pen.

[Todd]

Wade Davis was kind of a special case. While he wasnt lights out as a starter, he wasnt terrible either. Tampa Bay just had a glutton of young pitching and were able to have him fill another role for a season. He is back starting again with the Royals.

[lou]

I think you have to let them fail as starters first before going to the bullpen. Beyond that, as a philosophical thing, what's more valuable? 200 league average innings or 60 good innings? I don't know the answer to that question.

Let's let them fail and/or let these other guys actually succeed and push them to the pen.

Wade Davis was kind of a special case. While he wasnt lights out as a starter, he wasnt terrible either. Tampa Bay just had a glutton of young pitching and were able to have him fill another role for a season. He is back starting again with the Royals.

My first thought would be, and the Marlins don't have a glut of young pitching? Assuming they get an A+ SP MLB ready prospect for Stanton (I find this a very very likely hypothetical scenario. He ain't paying Stanton with three good young projectable outfielders who can play in MLB right now), and they have Heaney in the minors who will have more experience than Fernandez by the end of the year, I think we all agree Fernandez, Turner, Heaney, and "Top Prospect for Stanton" (in any order) is what they are looking at in 2014/longterm.

That immediately pushes Koehler to pen and one of Eovaldi/Alvarez. Doesn't mean they necessarily failed as those three are certainly holding their own right now, but they are just getting pushed aside for a guy with more upside. Which is what we all want and kind of where this discussion is? Plus, the reality that their stuff is probably better suited for the bullpen. I don't think you need to let them fail. I don't think you ever want a guy to fail. Just make the move because it is right for them. And yes I know Wade Davis is starting again. He sucks, but look at that RP line last year. That's his future, and I think you could see especially Eovaldi turn into that rather overnight.

I mean, I guess you can just let Eovaldi/Alvarez battle out for the "5" in spring training too. I'm totally fine with Fernandez, Turner, Heaney, "Prospect for Stanton," and Eovaldi/Alvarez, with a Cishek, Dunn, Eovaldi/Alvarez, Ramos, Jennings, Koehler and "camp battle 5th RHP" for pen. That is basically the same thing as what I said above. I just think they should keep all of them and not move any pitchers not named Qualls, Webb or Slowey right now.

Either way, I like the pitching makeup. I guess part of the point is, it makes a lot of sense to me to run with Yelich/Marisnick/Ozuna and turn Stanton into a premium SP and "somewhere infield" prospect, with 1-3 secondary guys in the deal. I love Stanton, but given ownerships inability to give him a 6/$80 deal right now, go all in on the young pitching and buy bats when you need them.

[Todd]

Fair enough. I still have high hopes for Nicolino if they adjust his repertoire some(maybe get rid of his ineffective curve and add a cutter and splitter maybe). And hopefully Heaney has no setbacks. In a perfect world Eovaldi is still in the minors throwing his secondary pitches 80% of the time and using his fastball just enough to keep it from losing it's effectiveness, but that is sadly not a luxury the Marlins have.

And I am still hoping for an extension for Stanton. But I tend to set myself up for disappointment.

Ramos, Olmos(who I believe is better than he showed), Jennings, Koehler, Hand(Koehler and Hand could be very effective as long guys from both sides of the rubber IMO), Sanabia, and Cishek is a solid bullpen. Throw Dunn and remove someone in he isnt traded in the offseason.

[HUGG]

I think Flynn makes the team next season. He's dominating AAA, would suck if they send him back (unless he's just ass in spring).

He did allow a double with one out in the 7th last night though, the first extra base hit against him in 36 innings.

[lou]

I think Flynn makes the team next season. He's dominating AAA, would suck if they send him back (unless he's just ass in spring).

He did allow a double with one out in the 7th last night though, the first extra base hit against him in 36 innings.

It all depends on health and numbers. They are going to be leaving 2-3 pitchers minimum we all really like in AAA next year.

[Bobbob1313]

Except Mainger. He hates 'em all.
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And Daft too, probably.

[lou]

As a side note, this is the same salary for 2014 (roughly, give or take $1 million depending on arb).

$12 Million - Stanton and Cishek

$12 Million - Fernandez, Turner, Alvarez, Eovaldi, Heaney, Ramos, Jennings, Koehler, Dunn, Yelich, Marisnick, Ozuna, Heachavarria, Solano, Dietrich, Lucas, Brantly, and Mathis. That's 18 guys.

[tjfla]

Even tho reports said that Pitt did not make an offer for Stanton,they did and that was the deal that had many in the FO wanting to trade him before the deadline. Yes even some of Loria's Yes men wanted to bring him the offer,it was that good.

The deal was Jameson Taillon,Alen Hanson,Josh Bell,and another prospect or 2for Stanton and a RP

Loria made the decision tho last week that he is not trading Stanton right now and will not even discuss it until the offseason.

They did however make the offer and watch for Stanton to Pitt IF they can't work out an extension in the off season.

Texas also made another offer however the Pitt one was the one that had many stunned in the FO