What is the Appropriate Amount of Time for Marlins Fans to Vent?

[Bobbob1313]

I think Turner-Alvarez will be a good 3-4 for years. Problem is where they getting a 1-2? Fernandez is it for the top end. Everyone else (Heaney, Nicolino, Eovaldi) profile as 4s.

It always comes back to re-investing. if Fernandez is ready next year, and they go get Matt Garza or James Shields or something in free agency, things look a lot better.
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2. Jake Marisnick, OF
DOB: 3/30/91
Height/Weight: 6-4/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Third round, 2009, Riverside Poly HS (CA)
2011 Stats: .320/.392/.496 at Low-A (118 G)
Tools Profile: Yes; all of them.

Year in Review: Every year, a few ultra toolsy outfielders just click. Marisnick was one of them in 2011.
The Good: Marisnick looks the part of a high-ceiling prospect. He's a big, majestic athlete with above-average speed, excellent hitting skills, and is just starting to tap into his power, which projects as plus. He's a good center fielder, and his arm is a weapon.
The Bad: Marisnick looks to hit fastballs early in the count and could use more patience at the plate. There is a debate about his power ceiling; while he's plenty strong, Marisnick’s swing is more conducive to hard line drives than towering fly balls.
Ephemera: Marisnick was successful in his last 15 stolen-base attempts.
Perfect World Projection: He could be a 20/20 center fielder, and that might be light.
Fantasy Impact: He will be a multi-category contributor and an early pick.
Path to the Big Leagues: Marisnick will be hard-pressed to put up big numbers in the Florida State League in 2012.
ETA: 2014

BaseballProspectus' writeup of Marisnick from before the season. I guess maybe his poor performance as a 21-year-old (after being really solid in high-A) was enough to wipe away a five-star prospecting rating and absolutely stellar reviews. Doesn't make a ton of sense to me, though.
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Just to clarify: Still not a good return for the package of guys the Marlins gave up.

Just also not total poop.
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Marisnick also put up a .314/.380/.457 line in the AFL.

[Erick]

Escobar being a cancer significantly lowers his value because no one wants him. And if the reports of him being shopped are true it shows we don't see value in him or that the organizational philosophy is pay the absolute minimum.

What makes Alvarez even remotely interesting? I mean the guy can log innings. Maybe this past year is not an indication of future performance but he was walking batters significantly more often and striking out batters significantly less often than he did in the minors. He just doesn't project to be anything better than a number 5 and good teams that are built around good pitching and defense don't win with a number 5.

I'd love to see Marisnick succeed but when it comes to fixing players, the marlins are just flat out bad. It's more of a statement about how we develop players. I see it as a similar situation as Maybin; he debuts too early and then everyone is calling for his head for sucking and then he gets shipped out before reaching arbitration.

-Re: Escobar
If it affects his trade value to the point that it makes the team not want to trade him anymore, that would be great. Fact of the matter is, we're not going to find a better 3B, short-term. Even if they somehow do, there's no guarantee that Hechevarria will hit well enough to play SS every day at the big league level or if his defense is good enough to negate his mediocre hitting. Even if those two things happen, Escobar could still play 2B because he's definitely better than Donovan Solano. It's a team-friendly contract and he's a solid player. I hope he stays, personally.

-Re: Alvarez
Maybe he will ultimately suck. However, your comments about him are rather unfair, don't you think? "He just doesn't project to be anything more than a number 5?"

If you're just a numbers guy who doesn't care about context, he's still better than a "#5." This is a guy who, at the age of 22, has already pitched 251 innings in the big leagues. He has pitched in a hitters' park against great lineups in the AL East and has put up a 4.52 ERA during that time. Despite the mediocre strikeout totals, that is not absolutely terrible.

Looking outside the box a bit, he's only 22 and has time to develop.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...cceeds-harder/

The link above is about a September 20th start against the Yankees in which he was throwing harder and apparently (contrary to what the article says at the beginning if you look at the comments), he began throwing his changeup in the 90's in terms of velocity.

I'm not a scout, pitching coach, etc., but perhaps this is a thing.

Obviously the changeup is a very important pitch for him. Scouting reports have it listed as a quality pitch.
In 2011, it was a + pitch for him and it led to a 3.52 ERA in his time with the Blue Jays; lefties hit .246/.301/.397 off of him.
In 2012, he struggled with the changeup and it led to an ERA near 5; lefties raked him to the tune of .309/.372/.512.

Back to the link, he had a lot of success that night. After that night, he had two more starts the rest of the year. It's a small sample so it could be irrelevant, but he ended the year with 17 K's in his last 18.2 innings, two of those three starts coming against a very good Yankees lineup, the other against a contending Orioles team.

Maybe it's something.

Either way, it's a matter of perception. You seem to be fine with Nicolino; why not Alvarez? Look at Alvarez path to the big leagues and you'll see he was rushed. This is a guy who only got to throw 88 good innings in AA before being rushed to the big leagues. The difference between the positive Nicolino opinions/negative Alvarez opinions is probably that Alvarez was given a shot to struggle in the big leagues as opposed to Nicolino who's path has been a more normal one.

Alvarez has the stuff to strike out more than only 10% of the hitters he faces. The velocity is there; he needs to work on his secondary pitches. It's part of the development process with a lot of young pitchers.

Even if you want to look at what he's done and assume zero improvement, he's still a strike-thrower. He has that ~4.5 ERA in over 250 innings in the big leagues. Now consider the fact that he's moving from the AL East to the NL. From Toronto to Miami. It's a transition that should definitely help him. Just ask Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle how much more they enjoyed pitching at home last year; I'm sure they'd agree.

One last thing...much of Alvarez failures (aside from the bad K rate) has been the HR's. Aside from the change in ballparks/leagues, HR/FB rate is usually a stat for pitchers that regresses toward league average over time. It's highly unlikely that his HR/FB rate is going to be at ~17-18% on a yearly basis. He could suck but to say he'll be nothing more than a #5 is rather premature at this point.

-Re: Marisnick
He struggled in AA but that's a small sample of plate appearances.
It's impossible to predict his future. He's struggled at times but scouts seem to like him a lot.

Maybe it takes him awhile to develop? That was the certainly the case during his stop in A ball. In 2010, he had a brief stop in A ball (143 PA's) and had a .636 .OPS. He came back the next year at the age of 20 and had an .888 .OPS. It seems like, perhaps, it takes him awhile to adjust. For what it's worth, he performed well recently in the AFL. It seems like he doesn't have to rake to be valuable at the big league level because he projects to do well, defensively. Has + range and a great arm so there's that. Just has to be respectable with the bat (same can be said for Hechevarria).

There are question marks but they have upside. I will agree, however, that the Marlins have not done well recently in developing players so that's a downer. But anyway, that's my opinion on the players. Give them some time to develop at least before we say stuff like Alvarez is a #5 at best or Marisnick is just the next Maybin (which, honestly, I wouldn't mind if Marisnick did become the next Maybin, for what it's worth).

[HUGG]

One of the reports on Marisnick from before this season said that the mechanics of his swing almost make an adjustment period at each level to be expected.

[lou]

I can't see them investing in FA SP. They will turn Stanton into two excellent SP pieces within a year, draft all college starters in 2013, and look to amass innings that way. I think they want 12 guys on paper who project to be legit SP by 2015, so when arm blow outs and underperformance happen, they will be able to field an internal controlled rotation. The whole, buy bats develop arms philosophy. It's not a bad baseball only decision on paper if they want to start completely over, but completely insane given the new stadium where they should be building a winner and not developing for 2 years.

I also have doubts of Marisnick, but I certainly think he is fairly valuable. Get ready for that Yelich-Marisnick-Ozuna outfield by summer 2014.

[Bobbob1313]

I was thinking to myself today how smart it would have been to go sign Hamilton, Bourn and Greinke after making this trade. Replace the lost production completely, move Lomo to his natural 1B position and grab a bunch of prospects.

[nny]

I think it's interesting that Hechavarria's bat wasn't as universally hated coming into 2012.

And then he had his best offensive season.

And now everyone hates it.

He had an 8% walk rate and an 18% K rate in AAA last season. If he can come close to those in the major league level, he should hit enough to at least be decent with his defense.

8%/18% is not good. And the once you consider he has no power, it's actually bad. He was good because of a .370+ BABIP

If he puts up near a 100 OPS+ in his career, I'd be surprised. His numbers throughout his career so far suggest around a 75 OPS+. His offensive numbers this year in the majors is actually really similar to about what to expect based off his minor league numbers, just with a little worse BABIP and little better BB/K.

He's probably a 2-2.5 WAR player with his defense and mid-600 OPSish offensive, which isn't bad. Against, Clint Barmes/Jack Wilson/Brendan Ryan 2.0. ~75 OPS+, ~+10 glove. Not bad, but you can do better. And he has a large floor under that, because there is no guarantee he can even do a 75 OPS+

[Bobbob1313]

8%/18% is not good. And the once you consider he has no power, it's actually bad. He was good because of a .370+ BABIP

He was saying relative to his previous production, I think.
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His offensive numbers this year in the majors is actually really similar to about what to expect based off his minor league numbers, just with a little worse BABIP and little better BB/K.

I would think it is a little bit realistic to think a player can do better as they get older.

[HUGG]

BABIP in the minors is something that gets thrown out all the time with no context. They don't just translate normally.

BABIP over .350 by level (2011):
MLB: 18 of 265 (6.79%)
AAA: 54 of 225 (24%)
AA: 44 of 235 (18.72%)
Hi-A: 41 of 234 (17.52%)
Low-A: 42 of 242 (17.36%)
SS-A: 39 of 129 (30.23%)
RK: 108 of 268 (40.30%)
Minors total: 236 of 1245 (18.96%)

source: http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/02/...usings-part-2/
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an "average" babip in the minors is something like 25-30 points higher than in the majors

[Erick]

.BABIP for hitters can be seen as a skill, no?

If his batted ball data = what he did in his short time with Toronto last year, he should project to have .BABIP's higher than league average especially considering his above average speed.

21.3 LD%, ~48 GB%, 3.4 IFFB% should translate to high .BABIP's for him most of the time, I would imagine.

[nny]

BABIP in the minors is something that gets thrown out all the time with no context. They don't just translate normally.

BABIP over .350 by level (2011):
MLB: 18 of 265 (6.79%)
AAA: 54 of 225 (24%)
AA: 44 of 235 (18.72%)
Hi-A: 41 of 234 (17.52%)
Low-A: 42 of 242 (17.36%)
SS-A: 39 of 129 (30.23%)
RK: 108 of 268 (40.30%)
Minors total: 236 of 1245 (18.96%)

source: http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/02/...usings-part-2/
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an "average" babip in the minors is something like 25-30 points higher than in the majors

Better for BABIP is using "BABIP+", basically like OPS+ where you compare a players to league average and then base that off MLB's average. Which is what I do.

.370+ BABIP is really high, regardless of level.

[HUGG]

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSL3fxsIuNo[/ame]

[nny]

.BABIP for hitters can be seen as a skill, no?

If his batted ball data = what he did in his short time with Toronto last year, he should project to have .BABIP's higher than league average especially considering his above average speed.

21.3 LD%, ~48 GB%, 3.4 IFFB% should translate to high .BABIP's for him most of the time, I would imagine.

Power is one of the most important parts of BABIP projection. Hence why someone like Juan pierre can constantly put up 20+ LD rates but have a career BABIP of .314.

I'm also confused at the constant people talking about how he should have above average BABIP in context of my post. I said it'd likely regress, not be average/below average. a .310 BABIP is still above average.
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I would think it is a little bit realistic to think a player can do better as they get older.

And the competition he faces in the majors is stronger than that in the minors.

He also has no power projection to actually get significantly better as he gets older.

That then means his BABIP has no real significance potential in getting better.

So his only way of getting better is BB/K. Which will not have a big impact on the final line.
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I'm curious since so many people are disagreeing with what I said:

Do you expect him to do better than mid-.600 OPS? Do you think he'll be a league average hitter? What exactly is being disagreed with?

[HUGG]

I think he could end up being a .280/.320/.370 player.

I wasn't really disagreeing with you though.
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Get ready for that Yelich-Marisnick-Ozuna outfield by summer 2014.

They're gonna be fun to follow in Jacksonville this season.

[Erick]

Isn't speed far more important than power in terms of .BABIP projection? I'm sure you're much more informed about this but power that leads to balls going over the fence have nothing to do with .BABIP, for example.

From stuff I've read in the past, hitters who hit it on the ground more tend to have higher .BABIP's. Obviously having more speed helps. Hitting line drives and not hitting infield flies is important hence the reason why I put those #'s.

I just checked the 2012 .ISO leaders and some have high .BABIP's while others don't. There seems to be little to no relation between the two but I'm sure I'm very wrong about this and you're going to show me why.

[Bobbob1313]

I think he could end up being a .280/.320/.370 player.

I wasn't really disagreeing with you though.

I don't think anyone really was. It was just nitpicking.

I just mostly think it's weird to look at a guy and say "this is it" when he's 23 and doesn't have an exceedingly long minor-league track record to base it off.
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Hugg's triple-slash line seems about right for me.