2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Only 2 teams hit less HR's than the Marlins in Spring Training

I mean they are going to be bottom 10 somewhere without question and if Burger gets hurt it might shoot to last

[lou]

Also the Tovar Colorado extension is a little instructive for what some bats may cost. I think Colorado overpaid a bit as not a huge Tovar fan although I don't hate him, but they must think he is a very solid 3-4 WAR player moving forward with the defensive floor. Based on that or other recent deals, this is what market value says for Jazz IMO (give or take a few million in each direction). I don't think any other bat is worth a discussion here in the organization. (This is for all starting in 2025 when he's 27, with 2 arbitration years left)

4/$50m + maybe insanely expensive team option, maybe 2 or 3. But I mean insanely expensive
5/$70m + maybe get an option
6/$85 + reasonable team option, likely 2

It gets hard to project past that, but you get to Reynoldsville (8/$106m) or something like Buxton (7/$100m) after this, and the next step up is Baez (7/$140m) or Nimmo (8/$162m, but that deal is really valued in the low $140m range as the Mets are doing some luxury tax deflection strategy there). In any event, Jazz is nowhere close to that so who cares.

If you're Jazz's agent you probably want him to hit FA in his prime or have those years guarantees, so that's (1) doing nothing and a free agent at age 29 season and bet on three good arbitration years, or (2) wanting at least a 6+ year deal guaranteed so you're through 32 years of age. I think there is some real risk teams will be hesitant to sign him though at 29 with what's happened to Baez (i.e. volatile hacking bat), so I think you can't bet too heavily on yourself here 3 years from FA and at some point you take the money (see Buxton, who if ever healthy is one of the best values in baseball). The Marlins of course, want lowest money and most options.

If I'm the Marlins, I'd float him something like 5/$60m guaranteed with two team options on the back worth at least $20+m each. i.e., if he holds up he gets to Buxton and Reynolds range $100-106m. Maybe you have to guarantee him a little more like $62.5-65m and get those options to be $107m so it's just ahead of Reynolds (with 1 less year). That's probably the move actually. 5/$65m with two $21m club options.

I think that's pretty fair both ways. Jazz has made $5.5m in his career (including this year) and even if he is completely awesome the next two years, his arbitration may at most scale another $20m and that's not guaranteed like JD Davis just found out. I'm not sure he can say no once you get over $60m bucks with upside to get over $100m if you're still good when you're 32/33 years old. Give a MVP or WS win opt out also as a kicker. Life changing money that is respectful even if you might miss a Springer type deal (6/$150m) if you completely bet on yourself in arbitration and look like a forever stud.

[fish16]

nasim nunez is likely going to be returned. predictably his bat sucks.

[Nick]

nasim nunez is likely going to be returned. predictably his bat sucks.

23 years old. See what he does in AAA, it's where he should be. Asking him to hit major league pitching this year was ignorance.

[lou]

23 years old. See what he does in AAA, it's where he should be. Asking him to hit major league pitching this year was ignorance.

The primary AAA team is kind of fun?

C Banfield
1B Johnston
2B Nasim
SS Amaya
3B Bride
LF Edwards(?)
CF Mesa Jr.
RF Dane
DH Gray

SP Max, Hoeing, Yonny, Guitterez, McCaughan, Faucher
RP Cronin, Maldonado, M. Givens, Simpson, Munoz, eventually Brazoban


Besides Max and maybe Edwards, no big names there but a bunch of those guys might be viable backend roster players. I think they did a good job here with depth/upside picks FWIW.

(And yes I know a bunch of those pitchers are on the opening day roster but they will be sent down when Garrett, Cabrera, Eury, and Chargois are back)

[lou]

Random FG fantasy article that likes Rogers - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/alex-c...ions-for-2024/

Even if half true, that's probably a good # 4 SP which is frankly very welcome if he does that.

[fish16]

nationals actually kept nasim nunez. going to be a mission for them to hide him on their roster all year.

Also, brazoban is likely done. There is something serious on his record for him to not be cleared for a visa yet and have this issue every year

[rmc523]

D’Backs signed Montgomery for 1/$25M with a $20M vesting option after 10 starts, with additional $2.5M at 18 and 23 starts.

[lou]

nationals actually kept nasim nunez. going to be a mission for them to hide him on their roster all year.

Also, brazoban is likely done. There is something serious on his record for him to not be cleared for a visa yet and have this issue every year

Mish says it's an age issue. He must be a few years older.

They traded for some whatever reliever from the Rays too to replace him. Seems like they don't want Guitterez on the 40 man just yet which is likely smart as their arms are getting healthy.

[fish16]

Mish says it's an age issue. He must be a few years older.

They traded for some whatever reliever from the Rays too to replace him. Seems like they don't want Guitterez on the 40 man just yet which is likely smart as their arms are getting healthy.

gonna be funny when brazoban is 3 years older and his real name is actually leo nunez.

[lou]

Oh shit Berti was just traded to the Yankees.

Don't see names yet.

[Nick]

Not a good sign when you see no names.

[fish16]

good. hopefully they got a righty reliever and edwards makes the team

[fish16]

john cruz. 18 year old in rookie ball with great power. 10 homers in the FCL is pretty unheard of for a 18 year old in 48 games

[lou]

Not a good sign when you see no names.

And could have signed JD Davis for $2.5m if you were shopping him????