2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Say we're 50-50 near the deadline, which I don't think is too unrealistic. How do you trade away Arraez, Luzardo and Scott, and not alienate what little fanbase you have left?

They aren't building the depth for this to happen so I think it is more unlikely than you think. They are going to be 7-8 games back or more so they are setting this up to fail. Garcia is setting the team up to fail. Hoeing day 1 is setting it up to fail. But if they are .500, they just hold fucking put and you'll get a little less for Luzardo and Arrarez in the offseason, and oh well you didn't get something for Scott and maybe he's great again and give him a QO this time. That's an easy best case scenario pivot for them.

And I'd also say - how are they not alienating the fanbase with this offseason after making the playoffs?

[rmc523]

J.D. Martinez to the Mets 1 year / $12 Million

Unrelated News: Avisail Garcia still a Marlin.

And it’s actually 1/$4.5 with the rest deferred.

[Nick]

They aren't building the depth for this to happen so I think it is more unlikely than you think. They are going to be 7-8 games back or more so they are setting this up to fail. Garcia is setting the team up to fail. Hoeing day 1 is setting it up to fail. But if they are .500, they just hold fucking put and you'll get a little less for Luzardo and Arrarez in the offseason, and oh well you didn't get something for Scott and maybe he's great again and give him a QO this time. That's an easy best case scenario pivot for them.

And I'd also say - how are they not alienating the fanbase with this offseason after making the playoffs?

Good point, but I do think your average fan is more likely to be enraged by players being traded for prospects in the middle a playoff race, than simply failure not to add to the team in the offseason.

[rmc523]

No. It's the same problem as last year of having so many DH only types who can't play defense. This is a definition of insanity. You aren't wrong they need a bat, but this isn't it.

But I remind, if they have $12m (which they do)..... they should have signed say.... JD Davis, Amed Rosario, Michael Lorenzen, AND Michael Taylor for collectively $12m. This kicks Garcia to the curb, DLC to AAA, Hoeing/whoever to AAA, and you sneak Brujan through waivers the first week of the season and don't care at all if you lose him. Those four have a 4.7 WAR projection with Steamer where Martinez and the four guys were kicking to the curb (so one extra player) is a 1.2. This is how a smart and efficient franchise operates and spends money. You rail on efficiency. So let's strive for efficiency and not DH slugs who have a nice triple slash, but it doesn't really matter compared to the multiple other roster spots that could use an upgrade and are killing you. If they didn't have Burger, Bell, DLC, and Arraez it would make 100% sense, but they have those guys. It's why they didn't sign him.

Ultimately, they could have easily added 3-4 wins to this team for around $12m bucks. They didn't do it. So the question is why? Bruce is cheap comes to mind, but even Bruce is not this cheap. We are under 2023 salary for a playoff team. So the answer is clearly, this can is being kicked yet again to 2025 when they have more arm inventory (theoretically) with all the guys built up more + Sandy. And then when Luzardo and Arraez get traded (they will), they'll have a very cohesive roster 23+ guys deep at around $65m so that is a lot of money to potentially spend in free agency if Bruce is generally ok with spending what he spent in 2023. Don't need to overthink it. They are TANKING in a way they can save face by not moving Luzardo and Arraez now and betting they'll make it to July to trade them then. And in their defense, that's not a bad plan as the arm situation obviously will be vastly improved in 2025. But that swings back to none of this should be a thing because Bruce should just be spending $120-130m and they should just contend to put out a product for their fans for fucking once.

And if you disagree, I'd follow that with, imagine if they did sign those 4 role players who are all ripe to being deadline trades if you fall out. Who wouldn't want a JD Davis rental for $1m? Why not spend that nominal money to try and contend and if not, aim for another Cooper for Weathers move or get a bunch of FV40 Maldonados. That improves your overall farm picture right? We like that Weathers move? But they are so fucking scared that the team might actually be pretty OK if they do obtain those extra 3-4 wins, they won't be able to trade Luzardo and Arraez and save face in July.

They want to struggle while the new FO sorts it out and they get Sandy's innings back + Max up to speed + the Puk SP conversion innings + Rogers back off injury so they don't have to push him + Cabrera getting to a 150 IP milestone this sure, etc. No rational human being thinks they have enough hitting or pitching, even if there are great parts all around that.

2025 is circled.

This too. Even if 2024 doesn’t work out (or rather goes as a expected because we’re not expecting much), signing those guys would result in tradable pieces at the deadline.

[fish16]

That is their plan in bold whether you see it or not and Arraez is not resigning here for a $125-150m contract as a non-defender destined to 1B. You'll see, and you will be pumped for getting those prospects August 1st the same way you have cheerleaded this offseason that you really like the Burger, Gordon, and Weathers moves and think they will be longterm pieces. Which you probably aren't wrong on as those were smart moves, but you can't on the one hand applaud moves for finding young assets, and then on the other hand suggest anyone they trade for is unproven and likely won't be a contributor. And if you don't believe me, what happened to Glasnow this year? This is what this FO is going to do.

Maybe you are a little jaded because you loved the Yelich deal the most and Brinson/Harrison/Diaz certainly happened, but at the same time this team is *HEAVILY* built via trade - Sandy, Luzardo, Puk, Weathers, Sixto(?), Jazz(Gallen), Arraez, Burger, Edwards, Sanchez, Brujan, DLC and Gordon. Turning expensive guys into more younger guys with explosive upside and money is what is going to happen, it's just a question of what names they get back and yes, will they spend some of that money. And notably there, the plant the flag Jayson Werth level deal which will be the turning point for the organization when Bruce finally lets them do it. I predict it will happen next year if the team and namley the SP is healthy because you can easily triangulate payroll for years so low not extending Luzardo and Arraez and getting multiple young guys to take their places, but we shall see if they can get there as that hasn't happened for a few years now as Rogers, Max, Sandy, and maybe now Eury maybe keep getting hurt. But maybe this is the magic year and upcoming offseason that might convince Bruce to do something as they'll have a healthy staff come the winter meetings?

My prediction is 2024 is going to fucking suck W/L wise, but the team is going to be better than 2023 overall despite a worse record in the standings, and this is all being set up for the magical pitching staff in 2025 where they don't even need Luzardo to have a projectable top 3 staff in baseball. Eyes on the longevity contending prize here. And yes, many dudes will need arbitration buyout extensions this summer/offseason for this to work. But they have some time but really only 1 more year here. And to mention, I am hope I am wrong and the sign Luzardo and Arrarez, I just don't think this is the plan. If it was, they'd have Davis, Rosario, Lorenzen, etc. to plug these holes and help them for nothing.

Burger was acquired for Eder who had barely pitched for a year and a half in the minors. Gordon was acquired for a mediocre bullpen arm. Weathers was acquired for free agent to be mediocre injury prone Garrett Cooper and Sean reynolds. Brujan was acquired for nothing. DLC sucks and was acquired for yimi, a free agent to be. Edwards was acquired for 2 lower lower minors guys. Puk was acquired for Bleday who we could tell pretty quickly wasnt very good.

There's a difference between dealing from the fringes and getting cost controlled guys and dealing by far your best hitter for prospects instead of paying him and thinking you are going to contend next year.

Only guys who should be dealt if we're out of it are tanner scott as he's a free agent to be and Luzardo because he has serious value and we have pitching depth.

Also, the guy is never going to sign a major free agent, and major free agents dont want to come here because they have other options. the second you realize that the second your long repetitive depth chart posts will start being worth the time you take to post them. It's not going to happen. Just stop.

[lou]

Good point, but I do think your average fan is more likely to be enraged by players being traded for prospects in the middle a playoff race, than simply failure not to add to the team in the offseason.

I agree but winning cures all. If that 2025 team looks like the pitching heavy version of current Orioles, no one is going to care. Also, you mitigate that by doing Adames or whoever.

[lou]

Burger was acquired for Eder who had barely pitched for a year and a half in the minors. Gordon was acquired for a mediocre bullpen arm. Weathers was acquired for free agent to be mediocre injury prone Garrett Cooper and Sean reynolds. Brujan was acquired for nothing. DLC sucks and was acquired for yimi, a free agent to be. Edwards was acquired for 2 lower lower minors guys. Puk was acquired for Bleday who we could tell pretty quickly wasnt very good.

There's a difference between dealing from the fringes and getting cost controlled guys and dealing by far your best hitter for prospects instead of paying him and thinking you are going to contend next year.

Only guys who should be dealt if we're out of it are tanner scott as he's a free agent to be and Luzardo because he has serious value and we have pitching depth.

Also, the guy is never going to sign a major free agent, and major free agents dont want to come here because they have other options. the second you realize that the second your long repetitive depth chart posts will start being worth the time you take to post them. It's not going to happen. Just stop.

This is where you are just flat out wrong and you gotta get over Justin Turner not signing here, with the Marlins coming off a 93 loss season.

Chapman, Snell, and Bellinger feel on their faces and Montgomery - who is a top 25-50 SP in baseball in his prime - isn't signed. They literally do not have options and are taking lifeboat 1 year deals effectively. They clearly all want to be paid which is why they are all in this mess. The Marlins offering guaranteed deals to these guys a little bit more gets it done and everyone is a vast upgrade here. They are a playoff team with money. In Miami which is a nice place to be a millionaire IMO. San Francisco is genius what they are doing.

On the other end of the spectrum, very solid guys like Davis, Rosario, Urshela, Taylor, Pham, Duval, Lorenzen, Clevinger, and sure Anderson, are signing deals worth nothing. Literally nothing. $5m and less is nothing in the scheme of baseball. They literally do not have options and are taking what they can get as there is no market because team's are bumping on luxury thresholds or non-contending and really cutting books, and that removes 50% of the league for them. Disagree on a name or two there as being valuable, but a few of those guys will be good this year.

The middler tier - tell me why Kansas City (Lugo 3/$45, 2/$32m) is more likely to contend than Miami and how those guys want to live in Missouri. Do you think those guys might just be chasing $$$$ on a bad team???? Those aren't expensive deals. Do you think Candelario (who is Dominican) would have signed for 3/$45m with the Marlins, or really loves the great American city of Cincinnati? The Reds have so many bats coming he has playing time issues once they are healthy. Maybe it was the money and has nothing to do with the team? The Marlins can afford that. I bet Soler resigns less than 3/$42m to stay in Miami versus San Francisco. The Marlins can afford that. He's not a good fit for DH reasons, but we're talking about a barrier to signing here and this would not have been a thing if Soler was offered. Same for Gurriel. You think a Cuban guy for equal money isn't signing in Miami off a playoff run versus the middle of a literal desert?


Go big, go medium, or go cheap. The guys are there for the Marlins in $110m payrolls which they did last year, as only some nominal deferrals to next year in a worst case scenario would get you there (see payroll might be $65m for 23+ guys from posts above. They have space). Ownership is NOT. Or the Front Office is NOT and this is intentionally to tank this year to get "their guys" for 2025. Which again, may be a good idea but it just sucks for 2024 purposes.

People will sign here. Like Garcia did. Like Segura did. Like Tim did. It's not even a debate. They just have to commit the money and now they can show the winning path for the Turner types as they did make the playoffs and have the SP to back it.

[Namaste]

Let me preface this by saying that I love love love Luis Arraez. A total joy to watch and an exceptional hard working teammate.

He also ranked 78th in WAR last year (Fangraphs) with a batting title.

Arraez doesn't strike me as a guy that Bendix would ever full court press Bruce into giving an extension given that 2025 is clearly circled.

It sucks but it's real.

[Nick]

Minor Elbow Inflammation for Eury. Starts the season in the IL. No surgery recommended.

[lou]

Let me preface this by saying that I love love love Luis Arraez. A total joy to watch and an exceptional hard working teammate.

He also ranked 78th in WAR last year (Fangraphs) with a batting title.

Arraez doesn't strike me as a guy that Bendix would ever full court press Bruce into giving an extension given that 2025 is clearly circled.

It sucks but it's real.

Yep. The time to sign him was after 2022 for Minnesota or Miami, or, summer 2023 when he "proved" 2022 wasn't the outlier. I think an extension right now would be over $120m easily (he's younger than Reynolds at time of signing so he'll get more). Someone will want that OBP even if it's coming as a part time 2B/part time DH vs RHP. It's probably $30-40m less if you did an extension when they got him. That's the failure here. You'll recall the first I saw that trade I said, sign him immediately and then it will make sense. That's on Kim. It was a smart trade for him for sure, but she didn't stick the landing with getting the deal done.

They aren't gonna spend money on a non-defender. Jazz is the only bat in the organization they'll consider extending right now IMO. Sanchez and Burger are churns through arbitration for sure.

[Namaste]

Per Skip rotation is

Luzardo
Puk
Weathers
Rogers
TBD


weeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Namaste]

There are reports on Marlins Twitter that not shockingly, Sixto has made the team. Never say never.

[lou]

Minor Elbow Inflammation for Eury. Starts the season in the IL. No surgery recommended.

This is awesome news.


So it's Garret mid April (so 1-2 Hoeing/Soriano starts so not terrible)

Cabrera late April (he'll bump the worst of Weathers, Puk, and Rogers, presumably Weathers after 4-5 starts)

Eury mid/late May (and he'll bump presumably Puk to preserve innings).


So this might be the opening day staff with the 3 of them hurt + Chargois also banged up I think:

Luzardo, Rogers, Puk, Weathers.....Hoeing
Scott, Nardi, Bender, Soriano, Sixto...... Cronin, Maldonado(?), and a DFA of Garcia (please???) for Yonny or Guitterez added to 40 man??? Guitterez has options. It should be him so they don't lose anyone.

Can also keep Hoeing down for 3 days and call him up game 4 and just keep Munoz or McCaughahn for 3 days of garbage time if there is a blow out.


Basically, there are roughly 40+ innings for Clevinger here over 10 appearances until Eury is back for sure, and even shifting him to be a 1 time through bulk reliever from there, is a 100-120 IP guy. As stated 4 months ago and echo'd by RMC constantly with me, these are the veteran innings they are not signing. But maybe Hoeing/presumably Guitterez/Yonny surprise here.

One caveat here is maybe Max gets a strategic spot or two appearance without radically impacting his clock. We'll see how he looks first few AAA starts but he's the footnote.

[lou]

Per Skip rotation is

Luzardo
Puk
Weathers
Rogers
TBD


weeeeeeeeeeeeeee

(TBD should pitch game 4 so they can skip that slot most readily with the first off day!)

[lou]

There are reports on Marlins Twitter that not shockingly, Sixto has made the team. Never say never.

Herald confirmed it. What a great story. Didn't see this one coming at all, but sign me up for him being even just a decent RHP reliever. Not worth relitigating the Realmuto trade as not sure there is anyway Sixto can make up for it, but a good right handed pen arm for 4 years making near the minimum works for today for sure.