2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I think he'll be good, I just question his durability going forward as a starter. We'll see.

The good news is, if you look how the Rays used Littel last year, Fleming pre-injury, or Yarborough in general (a little bit anyways), this organizational philosophy can easily be put onto Puk. You can see 90-105 innings over 30-40 appearances with call it 3 IP at first and seeing if he can handle a 4th after the ASB and isn't wearing down. Doesn't need to start. Can come after a righty opener (Chargois), or in relief for Eury/Cabrera to mess with R/L lineup stacking. You get it. I think that's the idea they will have anyways with him and it'll make sense.

I think this is what I am most excited about with the new brass TBH, treating the Marlins arms like how the Rays use pitchers. The Marlins have arguably more arm talent (even without Sandy) so if they can maximize this production even further through better usage, that will be exciting. I expect an awesome staff losing a lot of 3-2, 2-1 games is what I am saying.

[Namaste]

that's been pretty obvious. he (Sixto) has no ability to throw hard whatsoever anymore.

****car tires screeching*****


U-Turn!

[lou]

MLB has a roster projection - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/mar...ing-day-roster

Offense is as expected entirely. They project Garcia over Edwards(AAA) for final bat and Brujan making the team.


The pitching is interesting;

SP - Luzardo, Eury, Cabrera, Rogers, Puk
RHP - Chargois, Bender, Faucher, Hoeing, Cronin, Sixto
LHP - Scott, Nardi
(Garrett IL)

Generally, you can imagine one of those 5 making the team if Garrett is hurt. But there is no scenario alive Weathers shouldn't be on the team over any of them. Which leaves Soriano and Brazoban in AAA and they opt to keep two of the other guys above them. Which is fine. They are all optionable and going to be mixed and matched all year more than likely. Also.... Sixto is.... healthy?..... Is this happening? I also thought they'd keep Bender in AAA to rehab, but if he's ready and back to 2021 form, sure keep him up. That would be a great development.

Big picture, one of Faucher/Hoeing/Cronin should be in AAA for Weathers, and a second optioned when Garrett is back.


So the full strength staff in their eyes might be:

SP - Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers

BULK - Puk, Weathers/Faucher/Hoeing/Soriano/Optionable Arms (+ Max looming)

RHP - Bender, Chargois, Sixto, Faucher/Hoeing/Cronin/Soriano/Brazoban/Optionable Arms

LHP - Scott, Nardi


Bender and Sixto being healthy and competent really would change the complexion here if that is happening day 1.

[fish16]

****car tires screeching*****


U-Turn!

he threw 14 pitches total the other day, only 5 of which were fastballs. They were at 95.2, 95.3, 94.5, 93.0, and 92.4. i hope im wrong, but even at 95, his velocity is down significantly from where it was when he last pitched. His AVERAGE FB velocity in 2020 was 98.8. He was consistently touching 100. and that was as a starter going deep into games, not in 1 inning out of the pen.

It was better than the lob balls he has been throwing for 3 full years, but i wouldnt consider him anywhere close to back taking victory laps after 1 inning in spring against. I hope he can become anything of help again, it would be one of the more improbable comeback stories in baseball history, especially a comeback from an injury and not something like josh hamilton or ankiel coming back from their issues.

[fish16]

MLB has a roster projection - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/mar...ing-day-roster

Offense is as expected entirely. They project Garcia over Edwards(AAA) for final bat and Brujan making the team.


The pitching is interesting;

SP - Luzardo, Eury, Cabrera, Rogers, Puk
RHP - Chargois, Bender, Faucher, Hoeing, Cronin, Sixto
LHP - Scott, Nardi
(Garrett IL)

Generally, you can imagine one of those 5 making the team if Garrett is hurt. But there is no scenario alive Weathers shouldn't be on the team over any of them. Which leaves Soriano and Brazoban in AAA and they opt to keep two of the other guys above them. Which is fine. They are all optionable and going to be mixed and matched all year more than likely. Also.... Sixto is.... healthy?..... Is this happening? I also thought they'd keep Bender in AAA to rehab, but if he's ready and back to 2021 form, sure keep him up. That would be a great development.

Big picture, one of Faucher/Hoeing/Cronin should be in AAA for Weathers, and a second optioned when Garrett is back.


So the full strength staff in their eyes might be:

SP - Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers

BULK - Puk, Weathers/Faucher/Hoeing/Soriano/Optionable Arms (+ Max looming)

RHP - Bender, Chargois, Sixto, Faucher/Hoeing/Cronin/Soriano/Brazoban/Optionable Arms

LHP - Scott, Nardi


Bender and Sixto being healthy and competent really would change the complexion here if that is happening day 1.

bender will be ready day 1. that isnt really a question. He had his tommy john august of 2022. Same with Meyer. The only question with meyer is whether they use him out of the pen to start the year if he doesnt make the rotation out of spring, or if they build him back up in AAA. I would use him out of the pen if he doesnt make the rotation.

[Nick]

From what I've seen so far from Weathers he should be on the team, w/ Meyer I'd be super cautious, and with him, I think if you're going to play the service time game with anybody it should be him. Have him ready to pitch big innings down the stretch.

[fish16]

From what I've seen so far from Weathers he should be on the team, w/ Meyer I'd be super cautious, and with him, I think if you're going to play the service time game with anybody it should be him. Have him ready to pitch big innings down the stretch.

we somehow have a surplus of talented SP but also a very high probability of a shortage as well towards the end of the year. lots of talent with Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Puk, Garrett, Rogers, Weathers, Meyer, maybe Sixto, Soriano, plus veterans like Gutierrez and Chirinos. But almost every single one of them either has injury concerns or innings limits. They are going to have to get rays level creative to make it work for 162 games.

[fish16]

puk with another good outing. Id really like to see them get creative with the SP's and the innings limits. Stack Puk and Rogers and Eury or Cabrera and Meyer. Or maybe mix and match them to be more effective so its lefty/righty so a team cant just load up the lineup on one side.

Then let Garrett and Luzardo loose on their turns through the rotation.

A bullpen with Nardi, Scott, Bender, Chargois and a bunch of former starters who can go 2-3 innings (soriano, Rogers, Meyer, Sixto) at full effort would be pretty interesting.

[lou]

bender will be ready day 1. that isnt really a question. He had his tommy john august of 2022. Same with Meyer. The only question with meyer is whether they use him out of the pen to start the year if he doesnt make the rotation out of spring, or if they build him back up in AAA. I would use him out of the pen if he doesnt make the rotation.

Bender has pitched under 90 professional innings the last 4 seasons, and over 2/3rds of those were in 2021 with the club. I'd say there is a big question as to whether he can immediately join the MLB staff, but maybe he's got it all back. He's a bit older at 29 so he has been a "professional" for around a decade and better odds as a short burst RP I suppose. Meyer has pitched 67 innings the last 2 years and coming off a major surgery. He's still really young and going to need to be built up for sure. These guys aren't machines. I think you're severely underestimating the conditioning and repetition these guys need, especially Meyer, let alone the mental side. It'll be incredible if they both come out the gate looking awesome at the MLB level like nothing happened.

[lou]

From what I've seen so far from Weathers he should be on the team, w/ Meyer I'd be super cautious, and with him, I think if you're going to play the service time game with anybody it should be him. Have him ready to pitch big innings down the stretch.

They lost a year of service time with the injury so unless absolutely needed I think they will keep him down to July. I'll say 1.168 days of service time and he's up the last 86 days of the season.

Call it 15 x 4 IP average appearances at the MLB level, and he throws roughly 50 innings in the minors April-June however they land.

[fish16]

the good news is every last one of the guys who has started for us so far this spring have been dominant. the bad news is we cant score a run. it is spring, but the pitching has been impressive. puk and cabrera were great tonight. cabrera did give up 4 hits in 3 innings, but didnt allow a run, 3 k's and more importantly for him 0 walks. if he can improve the control gradually like sandy did, the sky is the limit with him. im glad we didnt trade him with his value at the lowest\

puk in his first 2 starts has thrown 5 scoreless, 9 k's, 3 walks, just 1 hit. Supposedly he came to camp with 2 new pitches, or at leaat new/better versions of pitches.

[fish16]

i didnt realize just how good Puk's k/bb ratio was last year. 78/13. Felt like he was a lot shakier than that but i guess it was just guys hitting piss missile huge homers instead of him losing control.

[fish16]

tanner scott has been awful in spring thus far. he has 2 outs in the 10 hitters he has faced. hopefully it's just some rust because if he regresses they missed an enormous opportunity to trade him at his peak value. I believe he's a free agent after this year.

[lou]

puk with another good outing. Id really like to see them get creative with the SP's and the innings limits. Stack Puk and Rogers and Eury or Cabrera and Meyer. Or maybe mix and match them to be more effective so its lefty/righty so a team cant just load up the lineup on one side.

Then let Garrett and Luzardo loose on their turns through the rotation.

A bullpen with Nardi, Scott, Bender, Chargois and a bunch of former starters who can go 2-3 innings (soriano, Rogers, Meyer, Sixto) at full effort would be pretty interesting.

Been saying this for months, but yes this is the way.

I think Eury + Puk (the hard throwers) and Cabrera + Rogers would be really interesting combo SP with the way Puk is shaking out. I think you'd routinely get into the 8th inning so you'd have two potential bullpen rest days which is huge with maybe only 1 RP needed on average those days. You can see a lot of combo CG with those pairings as Eury should get through 5/6 on average pretty easily as he may just dominate teams some days and Cabrera and Rogers each 4+ even if they both throw 90 pitches each as it takes them so long. We can add Chargois as an opener too for Garrett and a general bullpen day w/ Weathers.

Luzardo (6+ innings)
Eury (5+ innings) + Puk (3+ innings)
Chargois (1+ inning) + Garrett (5+ innings)
Cabrera (4+ innings) + Rogers (4+ innings)
Chargois (1+ inning) + Weathers (3+ innings) + bullpen and eventually Max (this is where Lorenzen would slot in if they were to sign him, and Weathers is his combo partner)

Something like this would be a very Rays system quickly with the bullpen just 5 guys - Scott, Nardi, Bender/Optionable Arms, Sixto/Optionable Arms, and rotating Faucher/Hoeing/McCaughan/Soriano/Brazoban 13th arm quickly until Max's arrival. I think it would work and it's A LOT of air miles for arm 13 which is the bold guys. I think someone in that group is sent up/down every 2-4 games TBH based on use and availability. A total call up circus. This is partially because they may have to keep Sixto, but hey, whatever works. Weathers could also join that mix depending on use.

[lou]

i didnt realize just how good Puk's k/bb ratio was last year. 78/13. Felt like he was a lot shakier than that but i guess it was just guys hitting piss missile huge homers instead of him losing control.

Look at the statcast. It's a bloodbath. He's great and it will show up once yes, those random bombs regress to the mean. - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb