2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Just to be fair, Eury is under 1 year of service time, and Cabrera is under 2 (and will be under 3 next year and a super 2). This is a lot of control. You could probably sign them right now to say $60-70m for Eury (above H. Greene extension), and maybe high $20s for Cabrera (closer to Ashby w/ Milwaukee), but that number isn't going to scale too much after this season even if they both kill it. Eury would be 5 seasons from free agency (and we'll be singing Kim's roster maneuvering blessings at that point), and Cabrera 4, so there is epic leverage still to get deals done with them. Maybe that's jumping those numbers above by another $15-20m+ in guaranteed income, but no one is crying about that over a presumed 6+ year deal.

I agree with you they should do Eury now, but I also don't think it's a now or never situation. Luzardo and Arraez are now or never situations, so that's telling what their plan is with them. But I'm not that worried about Eury and Cabrera. If they both are awesome this year, it becomes more crucial.

I don't fault them for this one yet. They can see what happens with them IMO.

yes, it's a lot of control. that's why you sign them now at what will end up being a huge discount for their free agent years compared to if you continue to wait until these guys get to arbitration. they have a sub 95 million payroll, they can afford the up front increases in salaries for these guys. It's an investment in the future.

You wonder why some of these other small market teams compete annually? they sign their young guys to deals that, yes, do pay them more up front, but you save 10 fold on the back end. Obviously wander franco has a mess on his hands, but the rays probably saved hundreds of million on his long term salary by signing him early. Sign these guys early, pay more in their team control years, and save on their free agency years. then youll be able to retain talent longer while also having money to spend in FA intelligently. Continuing to wait until these guys get to arbitration is costing them millions long term. this franchise has 0 vision whatsoever to recognize that.

[fish16]

This is probably coming and will be a good day.

Free Edwards.

im optimistic on edwards and gordon. I think they will both play big roles this year.

[fish16]

jacob berry couldnt even make it past the first round of cuts in spring training. they took a quick rising bat only guy 5th overall and he cant hit whatsoever and he's not rising through the system fast. he's fucking terrible.

[lou]

The talk about competitive windows is annoying - there’s always going to be an unexpected event and the window shifts and shifts again and again and again. How many windows have we already passed for x,y,x reasons?? I just wish they’d act like a real franchise and actually work to go for it instead of hoping and praying for the “if everything goes right we can get in” approach

Yep. All I'm really saying here is - they haven't really had a perfect moment during the Bruce regime. If they had Sandy this year, I think they would as the low $90m budget with this team right now and frankly needing 2 big bat upgrades would be the third best team in the NL hands down. Would they be spending if they had those 200 innings around? I think they would be, but maybe I am optimistic. So its kicked to next year. They'll have the innings again big time if everyone is healthy, and a solid bat core (Arraez, Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, w/ some likely contributors with Fortes, Gordon, Edwards, and DLC). Will they spend then as that team is close to being a scary contender in short playoff series with that pitching.

They should just be spending $130-140m because shit happens, but I'd like to see what they do if on paper there is no excuse. I hope this happens as this is the ultimate and final Bruce evaluation as an owner. If all these pitchers and frankly just Arraez, Jazz, and Burger are healthy going into next year, there is -0- excuse.

[lou]

yes, it's a lot of control. that's why you sign them now at what will end up being a huge discount for their free agent years compared to if you continue to wait until these guys get to arbitration. they have a sub 95 million payroll, they can afford the up front increases in salaries for these guys. It's an investment in the future.

You wonder why some of these other small market teams compete annually? they sign their young guys to deals that, yes, do pay them more up front, but you save 10 fold on the back end. Obviously wander franco has a mess on his hands, but the rays probably saved hundreds of million on his long term salary by signing him early. Sign these guys early, pay more in their team control years, and save on their free agency years. then youll be able to retain talent longer while also having money to spend in FA intelligently. Continuing to wait until these guys get to arbitration is costing them millions long term. this franchise has 0 vision whatsoever to recognize that.

They have historically for sure, but they did sign Sandy in their defense before he won the cy young and will have the opportunity to do extensions with at least Eury, Cabrera, Max, and maybe Jazz, Puk, and Rogers (and dare I say Weathers, Brujan, or Sixto hitting their prospect status), if things all work out this year. (To note, Burger is older and not a candidate, neither is Garrett as a softer tosser, or Sanchez as a platoon corner OF). I'd offer Eury and Luzardo (not too late!) big right now, Cabrera, Jazz, and Puk a fair lowball as there is some volatility to them but I'd accept that risk, and let it ride out with everyone else and see what happens.

But at the end of the day, I think this criticism is more directed to not doing this with Pablo, Arraez who they should have done this the second they acquired him, and Luzardo who this should have happened already this offseason. Everything else will work itself out. Frankly, the writing is on the wall Luzardo and Arrarez are going to get traded if the team sucks this year or in the offseason, but that could really set up 2025 so it may be a swift step forward as those two (+ Scott) are game changers for contenders and would bring in a whole lot, to then open up payroll to maybe actually sign someone notable. We'll see. Don't get too angry here yet. They have some time excluding Luzardo and Arraez.

[Nick]

It feels like every game this spring has been 0-0 going to the 6th inning. Sounds like Rogers had a real positive first outing, and Weathers is dealing man.

[fish16]

it feels like we are going to have ended up acquiring 3 good to great controllable, lefty SP's for half a season of Marte, half a season of Garrett Cooper, and the corpse of JJ bleday. Weathers feels like Puk and Luzardo 2.0. All 3 of them had completely blow up terrible years before they got here (though Puk had a solid year out of the pen for the A's in 2022), and then turned the corner here. Weathers feels like the next one. Which is a pretty remarkable turnaround because he was complete dog shit last year when he came over from san diego.

[Nick]

it feels like we are going to have ended up acquiring 3 good to great controllable, lefty SP's for half a season of Marte, half a season of Garrett Cooper, and the corpse of JJ bleday. Weathers feels like Puk and Luzardo 2.0. All 3 of them had completely blow up terrible years before they got here (though Puk had a solid year out of the pen for the A's in 2022), and then turned the corner here. Weathers feels like the next one. Which is a pretty remarkable turnaround because he was complete dog shit last year when he came over from san diego.

I wonder, who is responsible for these reclamation projects? Is it all Mel? Somebody who works in the high minors? A combination of folks? Whoever it is, we need to keep them around.

[fish16]

I wonder, who is responsible for these reclamation projects? Is it all Mel? Somebody who works in the high minors? A combination of folks? Whoever it is, we need to keep them around.

if he can help cabrera figure out the control, he needs a huge raise. he will have helped turn Sandy, Weathers, Puk, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Scott around.

[lou]

It feels like every game this spring has been 0-0 going to the 6th inning. Sounds like Rogers had a real positive first outing, and Weathers is dealing man.

It was the big boy Astros regular lineup also and Rogers and Weathers decimated them for 6 innings, 5 Ks, 2 hits, and 1 BB.


And a fun side note here, Weathers threw 136.2 innings last year. Only Sandy, Luzardo, and Garret in the entire organization threw more. He's going to be really important to eat innings for the team.

I am fully on board with this set up and hope they do it (and even better if we get a Lorenzen or whoever surprise):

Luzardo
Eury + Puk
Garrett
Cabrera + Rogers
Weathers + bullpen, and eventually Max goes here

And if Garret is hurt for a few times through, just shift Puk or Rogers over temporarily and have Soriano, Hoeing, McCaughan, Faucher, and Brazoban ready to go after the main SP and call them aggressively up and down to always have some arm available for that 13th pitching slot, etc. Call these guys the one time through the lineup bridge bulk reliever as the team figures itself out while we wait on Garrett and Max.

[fish16]

weathers was pumping 98 in there today.... his average fastball velocity before last year was in the 93's, last year it was 95.2.

[Todd]

jacob berry couldnt even make it past the first round of cuts in spring training. they took a quick rising bat only guy 5th overall and he cant hit whatsoever and he's not rising through the system fast. he's fucking terrible.

I am skeptical about Berry as much as anyone but he wasn't making the team and he really hadn't hit poorly in a small sample size this spring(.375/.444/.500 with only 1 K in 8 ABs) so being sent to MiLB camp to start working there made sense.

[sports24/7]

You don't want to get overly excited about Spring Training, but the Marlins starters have been impressive. I wonder if the Marlins might feel more comfortable trading one away now, and with Giolito looking like his season may be over, you wonder if the Red Sox will feel pressure to add an impact starter.

[lou]

You don't want to get overly excited about Spring Training, but the Marlins starters have been impressive. I wonder if the Marlins might feel more comfortable trading one away now, and with Giolito looking like his season may be over, you wonder if the Red Sox will feel pressure to add an impact starter.

I love the idea of screwing the Red Sox as they have perfect longterm pieces for the Marlins, but the Marlins don't have anywhere near the arm inventory to trade IMO.

In a best case scenario, they might get this for MLB innings:

180 - Luzardo
150 - Garrett (knocking him down a few missing part of April)
140 - Eury, Cabrera, Rogers
110 - Puk
70 - Scott
60 - Nardi, Bender, Chargois
50 - Sixto(?)
---
11 Roster spots - 1160 innings. Full season is 1440.


So for those last two roster spots which are the wild cards of course:

160 - Weathers. He has this arm inventory if they let him loose and he can actually do it
110 - Max, but I have no idea how many of these will be at the MLB level


That basically gets them to 1440 day 1, and then Faucher/Soriano/McCaughan/Guitterez/Brazoban/Hoeing can be the replacement innings, which I think is objectively pretty good depth. Boy would Sandy change this dynamic big time. Sigh.

However practically, someone is going to get hurt, Weathers isn't going to throw those innings IMO (I can see closer to 110 and is used as a 3-4 IP bulk guy like Puk. They said earlier this offseason they view Weathers as a longman FWIW), half of Max is probably going to be in the minors, and some of those other numbers are optimistic. You can see a 200-300 inning scale back quickly where our Faucher/Gang grouping above is legitimately throwing those innings as-is. If they were to move the Red Sox even Rogers or Puk on top of this, that number shoots over 300-400 innings needed for those guys, and it's obviously more if Luzardo. That's frankly A LOT to be trusting that Faucher/gang to be throwing those kinds of innings.


In a perfect world, I think they ADD a SP (Lorenzen, Cleavinger as a bulk, etc.) and have that guy and Weathers penciled in for 240+ innings, so we're talking Max gets them over 1440, and maybe Faucher/gang and then pencil'd in for a max 200 innings. Which isn't a bad number spread out in short bursts over the course of the season with an aggressive call up strategy.


Long story long, they don't have the arm inventory..... but in 2025, add Sandy, Max, and an ordinary RP, and kick Scott and Chargois off the team, and this number rockets past 1600 MLB innings. That's when they can trade IMO.

[rmc523]

Yep. All I'm really saying here is - they haven't really had a perfect moment during the Bruce regime. If they had Sandy this year, I think they would as the low $90m budget with this team right now and frankly needing 2 big bat upgrades would be the third best team in the NL hands down. Would they be spending if they had those 200 innings around? I think they would be, but maybe I am optimistic. So its kicked to next year. They'll have the innings again big time if everyone is healthy, and a solid bat core (Arraez, Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, w/ some likely contributors with Fortes, Gordon, Edwards, and DLC). Will they spend then as that team is close to being a scary contender in short playoff series with that pitching.

They should just be spending $130-140m because shit happens, but I'd like to see what they do if on paper there is no excuse. I hope this happens as this is the ultimate and final Bruce evaluation as an owner. If all these pitchers and frankly just Arraez, Jazz, and Burger are healthy going into next year, there is -0- excuse.

Bruce has had the opportunity to spend to offset some of these unexpected bumps in the road and refuses to. Why should we believe he’d spend in a “perfect” scenario that will NEVER happen. There’s always going to be an unexpected injury to a key guy. The never ending excuse of “wait until x year, then we’ll be ready” is ridiculous and inexcusable IMO.