2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Been saying this for months, but yes this is the way.

I think Eury + Puk (the hard throwers) and Cabrera + Rogers would be really interesting combo SP with the way Puk is shaking out. I think you'd routinely get into the 8th inning so you'd have two potential bullpen rest days which is huge with maybe only 1 RP needed on average those days. You can see a lot of combo CG with those pairings as Eury should get through 5/6 on average pretty easily as he may just dominate teams some days and Cabrera and Rogers each 4+ even if they both throw 90 pitches each as it takes them so long. We can add Chargois as an opener too for Garrett and a general bullpen day w/ Weathers.

Luzardo (6+ innings)
Eury (5+ innings) + Puk (3+ innings)
Chargois (1+ inning) + Garrett (5+ innings)
Cabrera (4+ innings) + Rogers (4+ innings)
Chargois (1+ inning) + Weathers (3+ innings) + bullpen and eventually Max (this is where Lorenzen would slot in if they were to sign him, and Weathers is his combo partner)

Something like this would be a very Rays system quickly with the bullpen just 5 guys - Scott, Nardi, Bender/Optionable Arms, Sixto/Optionable Arms, and rotating Faucher/Hoeing/McCaughan/Soriano/Brazoban 13th arm quickly until Max's arrival. I think it would work and it's A LOT of air miles for arm 13 which is the bold guys. I think someone in that group is sent up/down every 2-4 games TBH based on use and availability. A total call up circus. This is partially because they may have to keep Sixto, but hey, whatever works. Weathers could also join that mix depending on use.

Puk and Cabrera's baseball savant page are pretty crazy.

[Todd]

Jomboy said something depressing in their Marlins team preview.

The way they operate there will never truly be a window to compete.

[fish16]

Jomboy said something depressing in their Marlins team preview.

The way they operate there will never truly be a window to compete.

That’s not remotely true. They shouldn’t be operating like this obviously, but that’s just not true. 2025-2026 is a good window for us to compete

[Nick]

That’s not remotely true. They shouldn’t be operating like this obviously, but that’s just not true. 2025-2026 is a good window for us to compete

There's a window to compete, but the ownership has to actually seize that window. Even if everything goes right with our current roster going into 2025, signing some low level free agent like Anderson is not going to be enough. They really need to add to the roster and it will take a financial commitment either in a free agent signing, or taking on a contract in a trade.

[fish16]

There's a window to compete, but the ownership has to actually seize that window. Even if everything goes right with our current roster going into 2025, signing some low level free agent like Anderson is not going to be enough. They really need to add to the roster and it will take a financial commitment either in a free agent signing, or taking on a contract in a trade.

that's the best way, yes, but i dont think it is 100% required to compete. If things break well with the SP this year, a guy like Luzardo being dealt next offseason can add a huge piece or 2 to the lineup long term while still having one of the better rotations in baseball. We would still have Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Puk, Rogers, Meyer, Weathers left over. And the lineup next year will still have Jazz, Arraez, Burger, Sanchez, Gordon, Edwards, etc. plus they can theoretically re-sign Bell and Anderson. Things need to pan out with the SP this year, but with sandy coming back there is certainly a window for contention. They need to sign arraez long term and get ahead of Eury and i hope they get ahead of signing cabrera long term though to extend it.

[Nick]

that's the best way, yes, but i dont think it is 100% required to compete. If things break well with the SP this year, a guy like Luzardo being dealt next offseason can add a huge piece or 2 to the lineup long term while still having one of the better rotations in baseball. We would still have Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Puk, Rogers, Meyer, Weathers left over. And the lineup next year will still have Jazz, Arraez, Burger, Sanchez, Gordon, Edwards, etc. plus they can theoretically re-sign Bell and Anderson. Things need to pan out with the SP this year, but with sandy coming back there is certainly a window for contention. They need to sign arraez long term and get ahead of Eury and i hope they get ahead of signing cabrera long term though to extend it.

I don't know, that's a long way out to project, but that still screams to me a team that could sneak into the playoffs if things go right. I want a team that should make the playoffs unless something disastrous happens. (injuries, 1-run losses) And to do that, another bat, a guy you can slot in at 3 or 4 in the lineup and a long-term SS is needed. If Tim Anderson returns to All-Star form this year, can you re-sign him? Money needs to be spent, plain and simple.

[lou]

Puk and Cabrera's baseball savant page are pretty crazy.

Even crazier. Here's two guys near bottom of the league in BB rates.

Snell - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

E. Cabrera - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Both had xERAs last year of 3.77 Cabrera throws harder, gets guys to chase more, and has a massive GB% advantage which is the real key for his success. Cabrera's only real weakness is his walks. Snell gets some more strikeouts with the better control limiting the damage, and his only real weakness are the walks too. I think they are very similar profiles even if they both get there through different offerings. The note here is, Bendix is very familiar with Snell having been with him for 10 years with the Rays. I have a lot of confidence they get the most out of Cabrera however he lands. 32 starts at 4.1 inning average is roughly 140 innings on the season and frankly, that's a good number for him. In theory, that keeps his tank full enough for September if they do happen to luck into being a contender again.

[fish16]

Even crazier. Here's two guys near bottom of the league in BB rates.

Snell - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

E. Cabrera - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Both had xERAs last year of 3.77 Cabrera throws harder, gets guys to chase more, and has a massive GB% advantage which is the real key for his success. Cabrera's only real weakness is his walks. Snell gets some more strikeouts with the better control limiting the damage, and his only real weakness are the walks too. I think they are very similar profiles even if they both get there through different offerings. The note here is, Bendix is very familiar with Snell having been with him for 10 years with the Rays. I have a lot of confidence they get the most out of Cabrera however he lands. 32 starts at 4.1 inning average is roughly 140 innings on the season and frankly, that's a good number for him. In theory, that keeps his tank full enough for September if they do happen to luck into being a contender again.

if this team had any vision whatsoever cabrera and Eury would have been signed to long term extensions already. They are costing themselves either significant long term money or eventually costing themselves the players entirely by not getting ahead. Cabrera is an improvement in his BB% from being a complete monster. This team has 0 vision or ability to think about what will allow them to compete with their payroll constraints.

[lou]

There's a window to compete, but the ownership has to actually seize that window. Even if everything goes right with our current roster going into 2025, signing some low level free agent like Anderson is not going to be enough. They really need to add to the roster and it will take a financial commitment either in a free agent signing, or taking on a contract in a trade.

Yep. But this also goes back to the current excuse and is that window this year. We want it to be now, but to play devil's advocate - Sandy is hurt, Eury/Cabrera/Rogers likely all max out 140 innings, and Meyer/Puk likely max out around 100 innings. In theory, if those 6 guys all work as SP next year, they could easily cumulatively add over 300 maybe 350 innings to 2025 on top of what they can do this year. That's a lot TBH. Aren't you circling this to contend despite whatever loss of momentum you may have in 2024?

2025 Innings potential

180+ - Sandy, Luzardo
160+ - Garrett, Eury, Cabrera
130+ - Rogers, Max, Puk, Weathers
60+ - Nardi, Bender
=1,480 innings over 11 arms, where 1,440 innings is an average full season

Trade Luzardo for 2 guys (which also saves money), now you have this which is easily over a full season of innings, as that's three low volume RP for the blank lines below and Weathers won't even hit his max innings here so there is more room. It's setting up Cabrera/Rogers as a combo 4th SP and Max/Puk as a combo 5th SP frankly.

SP - Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera
SP/Bulk - Rogers, Max, Puk
HL RP - Nardi, Bender, _____
RP - Weathers, ___, _____
---- > Guys with no options - Sixto, Faucher, McCaughan
---- > Guys with options - Hoeing, Soriano, Munoz, Guitterez (will be in arb though, but cheap), Maldonado, Montverde

If you do that, this is now roughly $82m in 2025:

C ____, Fortes
1B Arraez, Burger(DH)
2B Edwards, Brujan
SS ______, Berti
3B ______
LF Gordon, DLC
CF Jazz
RF Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera
SP/Bulk - Rogers, Max, Puk
HL RP - Nardi, Bender, Club Controlled/Sixto
RP - Weathers, Club Controlled/Faucher, Club Controlled/McCaughan

Dead Money - Garcia. Yep he's in that $82m.

And if you want to decrease payroll more, cut Berti (old) and one of DLC/Gordon, and this decreases to say $76m.

So they could be at $76-82m without Luzardo...
having all the innings they need on paper so they don't need a pitcher...
with likely a horde of inventory arms in AAA (maybe Fulton comes back strong and gets added to that?)...
needing 3-5 bats, and Luzardo presumably brings back 2 of them (who would be club controlled)....
so now they are sitting at $78-84m needing 1-3 bats....
Payroll was $110m in 2023...
And whose to say they don't do the reverse Yelich trade and move Noble/top 5 prospect/top 10 prospect for another huge young bat

A lot of options here. These guys need to stay healthy and perform, but if we're looking for that perfect storm event for the Marlins to contend, it's here with the pitching inventory so that article Todd mentions is wrong. They just can't have more TJ surgeries this season, so we can pray for that.


So some pie in the sky scenario, imagine if they trade Luzardo, Scott, Berti, and Chargois at the deadline for Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, and a slew of good lower level Baltimore guys (like Bradfield) not named Basallo (this ditches at least $6m, that is redirected to 2025), trade DLC/Gordon, Bell, and whatever else for low A ball guys (saving the team $5+m in dropped salary which gets redirected to 2025), and then sign Willy Adames and D. Jansen in FA. This is $120m very quickly, but really $110m as you saved $10m dumping payroll at the 2024 deadline.

C D. Jansen, Fortes
1B Burger
2B Arraez, Edwards
SS W. Adames, ____/Amaya
3B C. Mayo, _____/Brujan
LF Gordon/DLC, Norby
CF Jazz
RF Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera
SP/Bulk - Rogers, Max, Puk
HL RP - Nardi, Bender, Club Controlled/Sixto
RP - Weathers, Club Controlled/Faucher, Club Controlled/McCaughan

Now that would be a sustainable longterm lineup. The team is fully controlled for 2 seasons besides Arraez, which yes is a big one there, but let him shed off payroll, take the comp pick, and you can sign someone to replace him or god willingly someone like Berry or Cappe figures it out and shuffle guys as appropriate.

[fish16]

there is no way they can justify carrying Garcia into this season. He has started off 1-14 with 6 k's and 1 walk. He cannot continue to be on this team. just get rid of him. The money has to be paid regardless, there is no sense carrying him just because you have to pay him. Either find a money swap with a pitcher or just cut bait entirely. You're just compounding an issue but making the team worse on top of paying him the money.

[lou]

that's the best way, yes, but i dont think it is 100% required to compete. If things break well with the SP this year, a guy like Luzardo being dealt next offseason can add a huge piece or 2 to the lineup long term while still having one of the better rotations in baseball. We would still have Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Puk, Rogers, Meyer, Weathers left over. And the lineup next year will still have Jazz, Arraez, Burger, Sanchez, Gordon, Edwards, etc. plus they can theoretically re-sign Bell and Anderson. Things need to pan out with the SP this year, but with sandy coming back there is certainly a window for contention. They need to sign arraez long term and get ahead of Eury and i hope they get ahead of signing cabrera long term though to extend it.

Yep, see above.

Pitching health is the absolute key. If everyone major is healthy going into 2025, they have a major SP to burn for sure, which I agree is likely Luzardo, and payroll is low $80s tops even with Arrarez, Sandy, Garcia(sigh), and Jazz eating about 50% of that amount. You'd hope they would invest in 1-3 bats on top of that and not $5m dudes like Anderson.

The direction of the franchise is frankly good despite the lower farm at the moment. They have a lot of control of good players. The problem is, it could be a lot better if Bruce would just spend $120-130m so Bendix could load up on Lorenzen, M. Taylor, JD Martinez (why not and just accept the weird defense arrangement at this point), and others right now to raise the floor.

But maybe that is next year and the can finally - finally - stops getting kicked one of these years. So long as a "Sandy" level excuse doesn't develop this year, 2025 could be that perfect storm we have been dreaming about since 2005 or so. It's all about that arm inventory. The top 13 arms being able to be projected over 1,600 elite innings easily next year is something no other team in baseball can probably say.

[lou]

if this team had any vision whatsoever cabrera and Eury would have been signed to long term extensions already. They are costing themselves either significant long term money or eventually costing themselves the players entirely by not getting ahead. Cabrera is an improvement in his BB% from being a complete monster. This team has 0 vision or ability to think about what will allow them to compete with their payroll constraints.

Just to be fair, Eury is under 1 year of service time, and Cabrera is under 2 (and will be under 3 next year and a super 2). This is a lot of control. You could probably sign them right now to say $60-70m for Eury (above H. Greene extension), and maybe high $20s for Cabrera (closer to Ashby w/ Milwaukee), but that number isn't going to scale too much after this season even if they both kill it. Eury would be 5 seasons from free agency (and we'll be singing Kim's roster maneuvering blessings at that point), and Cabrera 4, so there is epic leverage still to get deals done with them. Maybe that's jumping those numbers above by another $15-20m+ in guaranteed income, but no one is crying about that over a presumed 6+ year deal.

I agree with you they should do Eury now, but I also don't think it's a now or never situation. Luzardo and Arraez are now or never situations, so that's telling what their plan is with them. But I'm not that worried about Eury and Cabrera. If they both are awesome this year, it becomes more crucial.

I don't fault them for this one yet. They can see what happens with them IMO.

[lou]

there is no way they can justify carrying Garcia into this season. He has started off 1-14 with 6 k's and 1 walk. He cannot continue to be on this team. just get rid of him. The money has to be paid regardless, there is no sense carrying him just because you have to pay him. Either find a money swap with a pitcher or just cut bait entirely. You're just compounding an issue but making the team worse on top of paying him the money.

This is probably coming and will be a good day.

Free Edwards.

[lou]

It looks like Garrett is going to start on the IL. Optimistically, this is missing two starts.

Maybe they do this to have the "5th" SP throw at home versus Pitt and LAA sort of thing to have that day be on the weakest opponents.


Pitt
28 Luzardo
29 Weathers + bullpen < --- This is to set up the 5th SP for Pitt/LAA series versus dealing with STL/NYY/ATL who are obviously better
30 Eury
31 Puk + bullpen

LAA
1 Rogers
2 Luzardo
3 Weathers + bullpen

@STL
4 Eury
Off
6 Puk < - Maximum time off for him, + bullpen
7 Luzardo

@ NYY
8 Rogers
9 Eury
10 "5th SP" < - potential Garrett, if not Weathers + bullpen

ATL
OFF
12 Luzardo
13 Puk < - Maximum time off for him, + bullpen
14 Eury

SF
15 Rogers
16 "5th SP" < - potential Garrett, if not Weathers + bullpen
17 Luzardo

I think that makes sense to deflect against Garrett and give Weathers/gang the best two first starts.

[rmc523]

The talk about competitive windows is annoying - there’s always going to be an unexpected event and the window shifts and shifts again and again and again. How many windows have we already passed for x,y,x reasons?? I just wish they’d act like a real franchise and actually work to go for it instead of hoping and praying for the “if everything goes right we can get in” approach