2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

Exactly. The outrage is borderline embarrassing.

Not one person here (me included) wants Sherman as the owner. But Manfred and Jeter/Sherman butt fucked this organization and there’s nothing we can do about it now.

There’s still time for moves! Let Bendix cook.

Would you rather the folks that are pissed just not post? What the fuck else is there to post about in an off-season where nothing has happened?

[fish16]

I generally agree with you, but the team's 26 man roster is very set compared to previous years with having to make series of moves for 6-10 guys before. This was coming back day 1, not really suggesting they needed to make big moves:

Fortes, _____
Bell
Arraez, Edwards
____, Berti
Burger, _____
DLC, Garcia (or Myers)
Jazz
Sanchez

Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
Scott, Nardi, Puk, Weathers, Chargois, Okert, and two likely internal relievers pending Max and Bender return. Not a huge need

Bethancourt became 1 line, Brujan a second (which is a good reclamation project). They frankly don't *need* to make moves absent getting a SS. If that's the bar, not much left to do and they are in fact waiting out the market. It's good they arent just making moves to make moves as what they are bringing back is good. But the problem is yes, Bruce is cheap as they should be kicking Garcia to the curb for a better OF, getting at least one better C or SS, another SP/bulk guy, and maybe another RP


Big picture, this is screaming Luzardo and Arraez will be traded likely in July if they aren't a real contender. I think Bendix has 2025 circled with Sandy + larger arm inventory with Eury, Cabrera, Max, and Rogers. Get rid of that impending $25m in payroll and get three awesome club controlled kids making the minimum to match with Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, and optimistically some of Fortes, Edwards, Brujan, and DLC stick.

Edit - That extra $25m goes a long ways over 1-3 players, as they'll have open payroll on top of that with Bell, Scott, Chargois, Okert, CUETO, BARNES, and probably Berti coming off too, which those guys are over $30m on their own. That is an enormous payroll dump compared to 2024 even with Sandy, Jazz, Sanchez, Burger, Garrett, Cabrera and Puk getting raises, and those may only be +$20m or so. A lot of potential spending money here next year theoretically, even at their prices. Hope?

Off of last year's team at the end of the year we are without Stallings, Gurriel, Wendle, Sandy, Hampson, Robertson, Cueto. That's 8 guys there, not counting guys who shouldnt have a strong claim to a roster spot like DLC, Fortes, Brazoban, Avisail Garcia, Rogers, Hoeing, hell even Okert, Chargois, and Weathers were terrible last year to end the year.

This team has plenty of room. Just because you can put a players name next to a position doesnt mean you have a set 26 man roster. This team has holes all over the place. Getting quality depth is a good thing. Having to send guys to AAA to start the year is a good thing. There is 0 excuse for this offseason other than having a terrible owner who has no business owning this team.

[lou]

Off of last year's team at the end of the year we are without Stallings, Gurriel, Wendle, Sandy, Hampson, Robertson, Cueto. That's 8 guys there, not counting guys who shouldnt have a strong claim to a roster spot like DLC, Fortes, Brazoban, Avisail Garcia, Rogers, Hoeing, hell even Okert, Chargois, and Weathers were terrible last year to end the year.

This team has plenty of room. Just because you can put a players name next to a position doesnt mean you have a set 26 man roster. This team has holes all over the place. Getting quality depth is a good thing. Having to send guys to AAA to start the year is a good thing. There is 0 excuse for this offseason other than having a terrible owner who has no business owning this team.

I'll forgive you for the Rogers flub, he's a non-negotiable.


But my list above is pretty worthy of 26 man spots even if there are potential luxury upgrades in FA. As said, they should have done a few of those (notably Garcia and an extra RHP arm somewhere), but maybe Namaste is right and it's coming. They could sign Rosario/Urshela, Duvall/Pham/Taylor, Lorenzen, and Fulmer tomorrow, and shoot out Luzardo and Okert for a total motherload (Brooks Lee and more? Coby Mayo and Kjerstad? Mayer and Yorke/Rafaella?), and that's a $110m team and probably makes a lot of sense on paper all things considered.

We'll see. I'm expecting nothing exciting, but the problem is obviously Bruce won't let them spend. The roster is though full of worthy enough guys at the moment with the 1 glaring spot at SS. That being said, this is in "be a .500 team" kind of way not a contender. Again, Bruce is the problem which we all don't disagree about.

[Namaste]

Would you rather the folks that are pissed just not post? What the fuck else is there to post about in an off-season where nothing has happened?

No that’s not my intention. I’ll back off.

[Namaste]

Fangraphs projects the Marlins to have the 10th best pitching staff WAR in MLB without Sandy.

[lou]

To appease Fish16's rage, they DFA'd Groshans and picked up this guy Jonah Bride from Oakland (cash considerations) - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...position=2B/3B

.305/.432/.544 in AAA last year, but in the PCL. A .330 BABIP with a 17%/15% BB/K which is all great. He was pretty bad though at the MLB level in a small sample (.170/.286/.205), but his expected slash was .242/.348/.313 with how low his BABIP was. His xwOBA was just about what Hampson did last year. He has 1 option left. Hes also 28.

These scouting reports are two years old but not much else out there on him. This is MLB and FG. He was a FV40 and came up with Puk in Oakland's system so they know each other.

Talk about perseverance. Bride was nowhere near the prospect radar as a 23rd-round pick by the A’s in 2018. In fact, his struggles in 2019 as a 23-year-old had the A’s thinking they might need to demote him to Low-A. However, he returned from the pandemic and put together a solid 2021 season in which he showed supreme versatility while hitting .265 with nine home runs and 49 RBIs for Double-A Midland. Bride is considered to have the best fastball contact of any player in the entire system, particularly against fastballs in the zone. There is some power in his game, and he’s always been able to get on base at a high clip. The definition of super-utility, Bride can play third, first, second and left field well. This past season, he added catcher to his list of positions, getting extra reps behind the plate in the Fall League due to the injury to Tyler Soderstrom. Known to be a great teammate who is hard-nosed and has already overcome several challenges in his career, he’s moved his way up the system and reached the big leagues in June as a solid utility man.

A catcher conversion will likely carry the squat Bride through the threshold of the big leagues and into a very cool bench role as a third catcher who can also play both corner infield spots. Bride walked as much as he struck out at Double-A this year but doesn’t have the raw power to profile at first base, where he’s now spending most of his time. He only began catching in a normal game environment during the fall of 2021, both at instructs and during Fall League, the latter being an absurd assignment for someone new to the position. Bride handled it with aplomb and is likely to improve into a viable big league catcher. We considered Bride for the 40+ tier to indicate that he might track similarly to Austin Nola, who made a similar late conversion and looks like a suitable everyday catcher when healthy, but we didn’t receive a lot of industry support for that potential outcome here. Scouts instead think Bride will be a Swiss Army knife bench player.


I can't imagine Oakland is giving away anyone they think is valuable for nothing because they are terrible so there is that, but there are some interesting things here if Oakland is just keeping their 40 man full of ceilings and not floors. Nola who was referenced above ended up improving the second he got out of Miami's system and dropped 4+ WAR over 1,000 PA his age 29-32 seasons. Maybe Bride turns into a poor man's version of that, which is something like Joe Panik/Logan Forsythe kind of guy and is a suitable uninspiring bench player for a few years. It seems like the catching teetered off, but that would be really interesting if that's the plan. Seems like this is a much higher floor player than Groshans for 2024, so it's a fine move if they've sadly lost confidence in him turning into something. Hey Berti didn't make it until he was 29, you never know. This is probably nothing but a back end 40 man swap, but we're starved for baseball content and this is somehow their third largest bat move this offseason so far.

[rmc523]

I generally agree with you, but the team's 26 man roster is very set compared to previous years with having to make series of moves for 6-10 guys before. This was coming back day 1, not really suggesting they needed to make big moves:

Fortes, _____
Bell
Arraez, Edwards
____, Berti
Burger, _____
DLC, Garcia (or Myers)
Jazz
Sanchez

Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
Scott, Nardi, Puk, Weathers, Chargois, Okert, and two likely internal relievers pending Max and Bender return. Not a huge need

Bethancourt became 1 line, Brujan a second (which is a good reclamation project). They frankly don't *need* to make moves absent getting a SS. If that's the bar, not much left to do and they are in fact waiting out the market. It's good they arent just making moves to make moves as what they are bringing back is good. But the problem is yes, Bruce is cheap as they should be kicking Garcia to the curb for a better OF, getting at least one better C or SS, another SP/bulk guy, and maybe another RP


Big picture, this is screaming Luzardo and Arraez will be traded likely in July if they aren't a real contender. I think Bendix has 2025 circled with Sandy + larger arm inventory with Eury, Cabrera, Max, and Rogers. Get rid of that impending $25m in payroll and get three awesome club controlled kids making the minimum to match with Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, and optimistically some of Fortes, Edwards, Brujan, and DLC stick.

Edit - That extra $25m goes a long ways over 1-3 players, as they'll have open payroll on top of that with Bell, Scott, Chargois, Okert, CUETO, BARNES, and probably Berti coming off too, which those guys are over $30m on their own. That is an enormous payroll dump compared to 2024 even with Sandy, Jazz, Sanchez, Burger, Garrett, Cabrera and Puk getting raises, and those may only be +$20m or so. A lot of potential spending money here next year theoretically, even at their prices. Hope?

Counting on the young guys, who will have struggles AND innings limits as “not a huge need” isn’t smart, and the same mistake they make every year…

[rmc523]

To appease Fish16's rage, they DFA'd Groshans and picked up this guy Jonah Bride from Oakland (cash considerations) - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...position=2B/3B

.305/.432/.544 in AAA last year, but in the PCL. A .330 BABIP with a 17%/15% BB/K which is all great. He was pretty bad though at the MLB level in a small sample (.170/.286/.205), but his expected slash was .242/.348/.313 with how low his BABIP was. His xwOBA was just about what Hampson did last year. He has 1 option left. Hes also 28.

These scouting reports are two years old but not much else out there on him. This is MLB and FG. He was a FV40 and came up with Puk in Oakland's system so they know each other.

Talk about perseverance. Bride was nowhere near the prospect radar as a 23rd-round pick by the A’s in 2018. In fact, his struggles in 2019 as a 23-year-old had the A’s thinking they might need to demote him to Low-A. However, he returned from the pandemic and put together a solid 2021 season in which he showed supreme versatility while hitting .265 with nine home runs and 49 RBIs for Double-A Midland. Bride is considered to have the best fastball contact of any player in the entire system, particularly against fastballs in the zone. There is some power in his game, and he’s always been able to get on base at a high clip. The definition of super-utility, Bride can play third, first, second and left field well. This past season, he added catcher to his list of positions, getting extra reps behind the plate in the Fall League due to the injury to Tyler Soderstrom. Known to be a great teammate who is hard-nosed and has already overcome several challenges in his career, he’s moved his way up the system and reached the big leagues in June as a solid utility man.

A catcher conversion will likely carry the squat Bride through the threshold of the big leagues and into a very cool bench role as a third catcher who can also play both corner infield spots. Bride walked as much as he struck out at Double-A this year but doesn’t have the raw power to profile at first base, where he’s now spending most of his time. He only began catching in a normal game environment during the fall of 2021, both at instructs and during Fall League, the latter being an absurd assignment for someone new to the position. Bride handled it with aplomb and is likely to improve into a viable big league catcher. We considered Bride for the 40+ tier to indicate that he might track similarly to Austin Nola, who made a similar late conversion and looks like a suitable everyday catcher when healthy, but we didn’t receive a lot of industry support for that potential outcome here. Scouts instead think Bride will be a Swiss Army knife bench player.


I can't imagine Oakland is giving away anyone they think is valuable for nothing because they are terrible so there is that, but there are some interesting things here if Oakland is just keeping their 40 man full of ceilings and not floors. Nola who was referenced above ended up improving the second he got out of Miami's system and dropped 4+ WAR over 1,000 PA his age 29-32 seasons. Maybe Bride turns into a poor man's version of that, which is something like Joe Panik/Logan Forsythe kind of guy and is a suitable uninspiring bench player for a few years. It seems like the catching teetered off, but that would be really interesting if that's the plan. Seems like this is a much higher floor player than Groshans for 2024, so it's a fine move if they've sadly lost confidence in him turning into something. Hey Berti didn't make it until he was 29, you never know. This is probably nothing but a back end 40 man swap, but we're starved for baseball content and this is somehow their third largest bat move this offseason so far.

The exciting offseason continues!

[lou]

Counting on the young guys, who will have struggles AND innings limits as “not a huge need” isn’t smart, and the same mistake they make every year…

Sure but the point was, the roster has generally worthy guys top to bottom even if some have limited upside and the team is overall .500ish. So they haven't really needed to be desperate for moves to fill out the back of the roster like in previous years. I think we all agree they should get at least four guys - SS (over Amaya,who has an option), OF (over Garcia and who cares), RHP (over Brazoban, who has an option), and RHP (over Soriano, also who has an option) - and any normal owner who can be shown the stats that suggests get 6+ more WAR on the team and it's a likely wild card team would let the FO find four guys who average into a 1.5+ WAR to make that happen. At a current $90m or so payroll with pretty clean books, with even cleaner books if they are going to move Luzardo and Arraez after this season to cash in before free agency ala how Glasnow, Archer, and all them guys get moved in Tampa a year early at all times. So money can't be a real excuse here either.

This whole situation is bizarre how they haven't used the playoffs to generate offseason buzz. These guys know what has to be done in the FO so nothing makes sense, unless the answer is simply, they have to wait for Bellinger/Snell/Montgomery/Chapman to finally sign which opens up the trade market for everyone a bit more. They are presumably the last dominos as Burnes was finally moved and then any trades and the Rosarios/Phams of the world can sign and we shift to the season.


I do think Milwaukee ditching $20m with Adames and Williams (and another $10m next year) and getting something like Noble, Nardi, and parts and immediately signing Montgomery (which 2 years of his salary is offset by just Adames/Burnes/Williams) makes a ton of sense for everyone. A series of moves like this I think would radically change our offseason perspective:

Miami
-Trade Noble, Nardi, Amaya, FV40s for Adames and Williams (2/$18m)
-Sign Adames $125m+ for years
-Use Bendix magic to find a cheap 100-150 RHP innings in FA/AAA
-Trade Luzardo and Arraez deadline 2024 if you suck or next offseason, recoup 3 major club controlled prospects, and this shaves a ton of payroll so Adames can be accounted for for years

Milwaukee
-Take the Marlins prospects, Noble is a prize
-Sign Montgomery for $125m+ for years with the money you saved
-Peralta, Montgomery, Ashby, Misiorowski, Junis/Hall/Gasser + Noble in their pipeline is a really good longterm P situation, while having many young OF (Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, Weimer), IF (Turang, Black, Ortiz, Amaya), and two catchers (Contreras, Quero). Plus Yelich who is still good even if likely declining soon.

This is a win-win and the Marlins would be fine payroll wise, and longterm I'd be OK with a Jazz, Adames, Burger, Sanchez, and Luzardo/Arraez trade return bat core (plus anyone who makes it from Fortes, Edwards, Brujan, etc.). With the pitching staff led by Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, and Rogers. Milwaukee's situation is deceptively very good and would be an epic roster turnover after moving on from Burnes, Adames, Williams, and Houser.

Hopefully they go all "Florida Panthers" with an aggressive move like this and flip the script on the offseason in an instant and yes, stop repeating these same mistakes.

[rmc523]

You have far more hope than I do lol

[Namaste]

Fangraphs has 2024 playoffs odds up.

Marlins better % than Mets, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Padres and Giants. FG’s know Bendix is cooking!

https://x.com/fangraphs/status/17552...5F6k6qnReU4cyQ

[lou]

Fangraphs has 2024 playoffs odds up.

Marlins better % than Mets, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Padres and Giants. FG’s know Bendix is cooking!

https://x.com/fangraphs/status/17552...5F6k6qnReU4cyQ

With Sandy this would comp. as Phillies/Dbacks equals. SMH.

Also the constant daily comment here that *just* Rosario/Anderson, Lorenzen, and Fulmer/other RHP veteran that is "fine" would bump this to the clear last WC in the NL on this projection (that's at least 2.5-3 WAR in improvements). The only thing that could prevent that Marlins ranking is the Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Brewers, Padres, or Giants signing one of the big 4 (Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, Chapman), and maybe not even depending on which one. And then it's a playoff toss up day 1 on the analytics.

I really think the Brewers/Marlins should do that hypothetical swap I'm musing above (assuming Adames takes a $125m range guarantee and isn't shooting for something ludicrous). Add to that the Brewers signing Rosario to bridge themselves a year, and their team projection wouldn't change from what it is now, and it would be an epic youth/control infusion adding Ortiz, Hall, Noble, Nardi, Amaya, others FV40s, and Montgomery longterm in a straight swap for Burnes, Adames, Williams, and Houser. The Marlins would scale the Phillies honest to god with just Adames and D. Williams. They are very good. Imagine Williams and Scott 8th/9th every close game and the bridge relievers are Puk and Max, and maybe Bender is back to full strength. For under $110m payroll.

This is why I am angry Namaste - I hear you and seem to be more optimistic than everyone else here besides you. My anger is they are so fucking close without Sandy at a $90m payroll. WTF Bruce? Just drop Montgomery, Rosario, and Lorenzen (+$40m) on this roster and trade Luzardo (-$6m) to Balt/Bos/Min for a dumptruck (call it Brooks Lee for SS and Rosario 2B/LF with Arraez going to 1B half the time, etc.), and this is a sub $130m payroll that would project to be the 3rd best team in the national league after the Braves and Dodgers. Just like that and you get to keep Noble. What a fucking asshole.

[rmc523]

2 moves in one day - crazy.

we claimed Declan Cronin off waivers from the Astros, and DFA’d Ort.

[sports24/7]

mish said on twitter today that the trade he thought the team was going to make was with the orioles and would have included ortiz in part for luzardo. he says with the burnes trade that is no longer the case

That’s depressing. We really may see an offseason where the Marlins only moves are a backup glove-first catcher, and a replacement level or worse SS. I’m willing to let the rest of the offseason play out, but fuck.

[lou]

That’s depressing. We really may see an offseason where the Marlins only moves are a backup glove-first catcher, and a replacement level or worse SS. I’m willing to let the rest of the offseason play out, but fuck.

And that's being generous as it might be a replacement level 2B/3B/LF and fringe SS with Brujan!