2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

That's a fair deal for Soler IMO. Not offering him the 1 year/$20 million and getting the pick if he rejected kinda cemented the fact that Sherman is just never going to spend for me. What we've seen is what we'll get from him going forward. He wasn't saving money to go all in when the time was right he's just cheap and that's it.

he would have taken that deal, and he isnt worth 20 million. Im fine with them not offering the qualifying offer for a guy who could just as easily pull another sub .700 OPS season with 0 defensive value as he could put up 35 hr's again. They are going to sign one of these SS so ill reserve judgment until i see the opening day roster.

[lou]

he would have taken that deal, and he isnt worth 20 million. Im fine with them not offering the qualifying offer for a guy who could just as easily pull another sub .700 OPS season with 0 defensive value as he could put up 35 hr's again. They are going to sign one of these SS so ill reserve judgment until i see the opening day roster.

I'm not sure if he would have taken it based on what he got, but if he did, they'd probably have negotiated a 2 year deal with him and effectively moved Bell (as well as others like Chargois, maybe Berti) to offset the bucks which they could probably do easily eating some money and/or maybe attaching someone young. But you're right, they can make up the value with Soler easily and signing him to a $30-40m contract isn't the best idea with all the other defensive slugs around. He's just not a fit.

This one isn't a big deal at all, but Nick is right Bruce is a bit cheap for not extending the QO but that's more along the lines of why isn't this pathetic ownership spending $130-140m in a contending window, even if that's just for 3-4 years. Bottom 19th payroll, too much for that loser after spending nothing for 5+ years.

[Nick]

he would have taken that deal, and he isnt worth 20 million. Im fine with them not offering the qualifying offer for a guy who could just as easily pull another sub .700 OPS season with 0 defensive value as he could put up 35 hr's again. They are going to sign one of these SS so ill reserve judgment until i see the opening day roster.

the remaining free agent SS suck ass. It's a failure either way

[fish16]

the remaining free agent SS suck ass. It's a failure either way

Tim Anderson in the 5 years prior to last year had the following WAR- 2.5, 4.5, 2.4, 4.6, 2.0. The 2.4 year was covid in 49 games. The 2.0 year was 2022 when he played in 79 games. So he has played at a 4+ WAR pace for 4 straight years prior to last year. And he is a really good defensive SS. If they sign him with the money that would have gone to Soler at a position that we need much more than another all bat DH type, that is an upgrade to our ceiling.

Yes, soler had a good year last year. Go back 12 months and think about what you would have said about offering him 20 million per year. He is wildly inconsistent on a year to year basis, and he has negative defensive value, plus he has been on the IL every year in his career outside of 2 years. He is also so wildly inconsistent that despite the couple of crazy years he has had, he still has a sub .800 OPS for his career. He's not worth 20 million. If they dont reinvest the money its dumb as shit, but if they do for a starting SS, it's a better overall team.

For his career, Soler has just 2 seasons with a WAR above .7. Last year he was only at 1.9 WAR because his glove is so useless. He is what he is, and that is replaceable if we sign a SS. He hits the ball hard, is wildly inconsistent on an annual basis, has negative defensive value, and is injury prone. He had a good season for relatively cheap for us. Take it and run and dont give him big money long term at age 32 when he will only get worse.

[fish16]

I'm not sure if he would have taken it based on what he got, but if he did, they'd probably have negotiated a 2 year deal with him and effectively moved Bell (as well as others like Chargois, maybe Berti) to offset the bucks which they could probably do easily eating some money and/or maybe attaching someone young. But you're right, they can make up the value with Soler easily and signing him to a $30-40m contract isn't the best idea with all the other defensive slugs around. He's just not a fit.

This one isn't a big deal at all, but Nick is right Bruce is a bit cheap for not extending the QO but that's more along the lines of why isn't this pathetic ownership spending $130-140m in a contending window, even if that's just for 3-4 years. Bottom 19th payroll, too much for that loser after spending nothing for 5+ years.

Id take Bell over Soler every single time. More consistent on an annual basis, and he stays healthy, better OBP, close in slugging, less k's, more walks, higher average, similarly terrible defensively.

[Nick]

Tim Anderson in the 5 years prior to last year had the following WAR- 2.5, 4.5, 2.4, 4.6, 2.0. The 2.4 year was covid in 49 games. The 2.0 year was 2022 when he played in 79 games. So he has played at a 4+ WAR pace for 4 straight years prior to last year. And he is a really good defensive SS. If they sign him with the money that would have gone to Soler at a position that we need much more than another all bat DH type, that is an upgrade to our ceiling.

Yes, soler had a good year last year. Go back 12 months and think about what you would have said about offering him 20 million per year. He is wildly inconsistent on a year to year basis, and he has negative defensive value, plus he has been on the IL every year in his career outside of 2 years. He is also so wildly inconsistent that despite the couple of crazy years he has had, he still has a sub .800 OPS for his career. He's not worth 20 million. If they dont reinvest the money its dumb as shit, but if they do for a starting SS, it's a better overall team.

For his career, Soler has just 2 seasons with a WAR above .7. Last year he was only at 1.9 WAR because his glove is so useless. He is what he is, and that is replaceable if we sign a SS. He hits the ball hard, is wildly inconsistent on an annual basis, has negative defensive value, and is injury prone. He had a good season for relatively cheap for us. Take it and run and dont give him big money long term at age 32 when he will only get worse.

Honestly, I think he would've turned it down and we would've gotten a good pick to help our farm system, that's what I'm mostly mad about. But even still if he had accepted, it should be a low risk for any team, he has a bad year, you move on in 2025. It's only a big risk for the Marlins because Mr. Sherman believes we can't operate outside the bottom 3 lowest payrolls in the league.

[Namaste]

They are going to sign one of these SS so I’ll reserve judgment until i see the opening day roster.

Genuinely happy that you’re singing a different tune than 2 weeks ago.

[fish16]

Genuinely happy that you’re singing a different tune than 2 weeks ago.

im talking solely as it relates to letting soler walk. This offseason is a complete disaster and this franchise is a sad excuse for a professional team, but im completely fine with them letting soler walk as long as they use the money they didnt spend on him to go get a legitimate SS like Anderson and hopefully also a corner OF and a righty reliever.

The offseason as a whole is pathetic. Pitchers and catchers report in days and they havent signed a single major league free agent as we have a bottom 5 payroll. They deserve to have the lowest attendance in baseball.

Maybe they shut us all up and go sign 3-4 legitimately impactful players to add to this core before opening day, but that almost assuredly wont happen.

[fish16]

this bullpen was awful last year outside of Scott and Nardi and the first 2 months of Puk, and we've done nothing to help that unless ive missed something. We did not have a single reliable righty to count on out of the pen all year and have done nothing.

[Nick]

I just don't think you can ignore the fact that Tim Anderson wasn't just bad last year, he was basically Jacob Stallings at the plate last year.

[lou]

Honestly, I think he would've turned it down and we would've gotten a good pick to help our farm system, that's what I'm mostly mad about. But even still if he had accepted, it should be a low risk for any team, he has a bad year, you move on in 2025. It's only a big risk for the Marlins because Mr. Sherman believes we can't operate outside the bottom 3 lowest payrolls in the league.

Yep. No notes (plus they could easily move other payroll more than likely to deflect against it).

[lou]

I just don't think you can ignore the fact that Tim Anderson wasn't just bad last year, he was basically Jacob Stallings at the plate last year.

In Tim's defense, he was hurt early in the season and may have been part of the reason.

But the entire league not signing him says to me (1) it's not just the injury, and/or (2) he wants too much money. I am leaning hard to 1 here and he just went full Carl Crawford falling apart. But I'd still take a shot at the right price for sure. Why not.

[lou]

As a thought experiment, if they did sign Rosario or Tim and Urshela:

Bethancourt 1.8 WAR (2022)
Burger 2.5 WAR (2023)
Arraez 3.4 WAR (2023)
Berti 2.1 WAR (2022/2023)
Urshela 2.4 WAR (2022)
Rosario 2.7 WAR (2022) or Anderson 2 WAR in limited time (2022)
Jazz 4.4 WAR (Combo 22/23)
Sanchez 1.3 WAR (2023)
Bell 2 WAR (2022)
—————
Fortes 1.3 WAR (2022)
N. Gordon 1.6 WAR (2022)
DLC 1.4 WAR (Combo 22/23)
Brujan .4 WAR (2024 projection)
—————
26.6 - 27.3 TEAM BAT WAR

Injury replacements, which really protect the floor here
Edwards .7 WAR (2024 projection)
Amaya .4 WAR (2024 projection)


I think there is 10-15 WAR downside to this group based on a lot of bad 2023's (Bethancourt, Urshela, Rosario/Anderson, Bell, Fortes, Gordon, and DLC in particular) plus injury (Jazz) and Berti is old, but I do also think there is some upside to this as Arraez, Jazz, Sanchez, Fortes, Anderson/Rosario (hit tool), and especially Brujan, Edwards, and Amaya, could impact this. Maybe there is another 3-5+ WAR in upside on top of this as those numbers above are obviously pretty. Combining those, this would probably be a 17-32 WAR range (absent major injuries to Jazz and Arraez carrying the real load here), and a reasonable expectation could be around 20 WAR. I think anyways. An everyone is their best self top 5% projection in 2024 from their past two years plus 2+ notable breakouts would be a top 4-6 position core in baseball (around Astros, Mariners, Padres). That'll never happen. But a middle ground of "20ish WAR" would be a 11-14th position core (Phillies, Diamondbacks), and the floor if everything goes wrong with all those guys above just a behind middle of the pack 17th-19th range team (Giants, Guardians). Get a Jazz or Arraez injury on top of that and it could dip further to "Pittsburgh" land. Optimistically, they could creep into the low 20s so it's a downturn from everyone's best self, but only collectively taking off 5 WAR so maybe it's a 22+ WAR team pace which would be a radical upgrade.

Basically, it would be a wildly volatile team projection, would probably floor out as a bottom 16-18th position core if everything went wrong, but the point here is - they were 26th last year in 2023 position player wise (10.4 WAR). Segura, Wendle, Stallings, Yuli, Garcia, Burdick, J. Davis, and Cooper combined for a robust -3.6 WAR over 1800 PA or so (jesus!), so building in this depth with Gordon/Brujan, having better hit (Edwards) and defensive (Amaya) backups likely able to contribute something, and getting some crafty vet floors (Bethancourt, Rosario/Anderson, Urshela) raise this group dramatically.

Everyone could fall apart and go full Segura for sure or Jazz/Arraez collide opening day and the season is over quickly, but that's kind of unexpected. But if *this* is the plan, it's not exactly a bad one. But they do need to bring in that SS type, and I really think someone like Urshela who can play some 3B makes a ton of sense to really get Bell off 1B most of the time. I'm frankly not worried about DLC/Edwards being optioned to AAA. Someone will be hurt. Everyone will get their time and those guys can effectively be the 13th/14th men and if Brujan sucks they both are just up quickly. They can likely add those two pretty cheap with a guarantee the 2B/SS gets 125+ starts and Urshela roughly 100+.

I would file this as a barely satisfactory offseason for the bats (still need an arm here IMO), but a sound plan accounting for Bruce financial treachery. Absent a plant the flag Adames-level move, I'm not sure you can do much better than this on paper with available FA + hopes and prayers.

[fish16]

I just don't think you can ignore the fact that Tim Anderson wasn't just bad last year, he was basically Jacob Stallings at the plate last year.

It's obviously not a sure thing, but his track record suggests that is a major major aberration. Also, he has a very healthy floor even if his bat is merely average and not as good as it once was and his ceiling is also super high as well. His floor is decent because he steals bases and plays really good defense and hits for average. It's worth a gamble to me. I would bet a good amount he ends up with a higher WAR than Soler this year for probably close to half the price.

[Nick]

It's obviously not a sure thing, but his track record suggests that is a major major aberration. Also, he has a very healthy floor even if his bat is merely average and not as good as it once was and his ceiling is also super high as well. His floor is decent because he steals bases and plays really good defense and hits for average. It's worth a gamble to me. I would bet a good amount he ends up with a higher WAR than Soler this year for probably close to half the price.

I don't see how you could say anything about what he did last year was decent.