2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

He had a .701 OPS w/ 70 steals last year, and is our best defensive shortstop in the system. I'm not to Lee's level, but I'm on the bandwagon. Now obviously the walk rate is probably not sustainable, 70 steals probably not, but maybe with the new rules. He needs to decrease the strikeouts, and increase the batting average to offset the losses he will probably have in OBP, but to me that doesn't seem far out of the realm of possibility to do, not to mention he's young and will most likely add some power to help the slugging% become more respectable. .700 OPS, 60-70 steals, and excellent defense plays as a major league starting SS.

of course that plays. that's not what he will be at this level unless he shows major improvements this year. I dont think you realize just how little power he has. The guy has 31 XBH's for his CAREER in 981 career PA's. That's a 3% XBH%. Miguel rojas is a slap hitting middle infielder and he was at 6%.

He will get eaten alive at the major league level without significant improvement. He will strike out much more against better pitching, and he wont walk as much against better pitching. You're looking at a much worse billy hamilton as a SS. Billy hamilton was also an elite CF but he was an even better base stealer and had even more power. and he couldnt stick around. He also walked a lot in the minors and struck out a lot, but he also hit for average, was an even better base stealer, and had slugging percentages over .400 in the minors and had 4 different years in the minors where his slugging percentage was better than Nunez's career high last year. And even he couldnt stick around for long.

It's pretty simple, if he doesnt improve the power while also carrying the obp ability, he wont be a major leaguer for very long.

[Nick]

of course that plays. that's not what he will be at this level unless he shows major improvements this year. I dont think you realize just how little power he has. The guy has 31 XBH's for his CAREER in 981 career PA's. He will get eaten alive at the major league level without significant improvement. He will strike out much more against better pitching, and he wont walk as much against better pitching. You're looking at a much worse billy hamilton as a SS. Billy hamilton was also an elite CF but he was an even better base stealer and had even more power. and he couldnt stick around. He also walked a lot in the minors and struck out a lot, but he also hit for average, was an even better base stealer, and had slugging percentages over .400 in the minors and had 4 different years in the minors where his slugging percentage was better than Nunez's career high last year. And even he couldnt stick around for long.

It's pretty simple, if he doesnt improve the power while also carrying the obp ability, he wont be a major leaguer for very long.

Players develop. He had 9 XBH in 364 ABs at Jupiter, 0 HRs. Half of those ABs were when he was 18 years old.

Last year he had 22 XBH in 442 ABs. 2 HRs. That's a big jump no? 22 years old, professional weight training made the first jump possible I'm sure, let's see what else it can do.

[fish16]

Players develop. He had 9 XBH in 364 ABs at Jupiter, 0 HRs. Half of those ABs were when he was 18 years old.

Last year he had 22 XBH in 442 ABs. 2 HRs. That's a big jump no? 22 years old, professional weight training made the first jump possible I'm sure, let's see what else it can do.

that's a big jump in the context of going from nothing to something is always going to be a big jump. It's also still a putrid amount of XBH's. It simply will not play without not only improvements, but drastic improvements.

It's a jump from 2.47 XBH% to 4.9 XBH%. Both are flat out terrible. It's playable if he can keep the OBP and plate discipline going, sure, but he wont. His walk rate and k% will be much worse as he gets higher in the system. Listen, i hope he does improve, but it will never be enough to be a major league starter. if he was some pure hitter, maybe. But he also has a terrible BA as well. As he gets to the higher levels of the minor, it's going to be bad.

[Nick]

that's a big jump in the context of going from nothing to something is always going to be a big jump. It's also still a putrid amount of XBH's. It simply will not play without not only improvements, but drastic improvements.

I just disagree with you here. 22 XBHs is not a putrid amount for a guy who went 70/86 in steals. You can essentially add a 54 number to his XBH amount (70-16) to make that 76 XBHs.

[fish16]

I just disagree with you here. 22 XBHs is not a putrid amount for a guy who went 70/86 in steals. You can essentially add a 54 number to his XBH amount (70-16) to make that 76 XBHs.

It's not putrid at the A+ and AA levels, im talking about projecting to AAA and the major league level. we will see, i hope youre right, but that's just not going to get better unless he gets significantly stronger. The OBP and BA will go down and the K% will go up as he reaches the upper minors without significant weight and strength put on. Like i said, look at billy hamilton's numbers in the minors as the same type of player but even better. He was significantly better in the minors in terms of power, and he was not a major league player when it was all said and done because of the lack of power numbers and the better pitching as you get higher in the minors.

[Nick]

It's not putrid at the A+ and AA levels, im talking about projecting to AAA and the major league level. we will see, i hope youre right, but that's just not going to get better unless he gets significantly stronger. The OBP and BA will go down and the K% will go up as he reaches the upper minors without significant weight and strength put on. Like i said, look at billy hamilton's numbers in the minors as the same type of player but even better. He was significantly better in the minors in terms of power, and he was not a major league player when it was all said and done because of the lack of power numbers and the better pitching as you get higher in the minors.

Not a major league player, a guy who has been in the league for over a decade. Even Billy Hamilton's stats 2014-2018, make him a great defensive SS, and I still think that plays.

[fish16]

Not a major league player, a guy who has been in the league for over a decade. Even Billy Hamilton's stats 2014-2018, make him a great defensive SS, and I still think that plays.

Not a major league player is probably not the right phrase- he was better than league average twice. For a full time starter, an average player is 2 WAR or more. He had 2 seasons producing that, and 4 others below that before teams stopped trotting him out as a starter instead of a gadget player. He was a 66 WRC+ for his career, which is horrendous. And that is with minor league numbers that tower above what nunez is doing. Maybe he takes a huge step this year and we can start looking at him as a billy hamilton type player for a few years, but billy hamilton was hitting .300 and OPS'ing over .800 several times in the minors. He played a similar style, just exponentially better.

Just for context, Billy hamilton had a season where he also played in A+ and AA ball at the exact same age as nunez- that year he hit .311, OBP of .410, slugging of .420, OPS of .830, and he stole 155 bags with a K/BB ratio of 113 to 86 in 512 AB's. And he was a horrendous major league hitter. Nunez at the same 2 levels last year at the exact same age hit .251, OBP of .384, slugging of .317, OPS of .701, and he stole 70 bags with a K/BB ratio of 139/95 in 442 AB's. I'm not saying it's impossible to play at the major league level playing this style, but he will never get to the major league level without significant improvements. you can't just say "oh if he does what he did in A+ and AA at the major league level he will be able to play." It's about projecting, and unless there is significant improvement from Nunez in terms of K's, BA, and power, he will never be a major leaguer.

[lou]

CF positional rankings - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-pos...-center-field/

TLDR - Who knows what happens defensively, but enormous upside if the defense is solid and Jazz/DLC/Sanchez bash

Summary
Great - 2B
Above Average, with upside to move up or down - CF
Average - C, 3B
Below Average, with real upside hope - LF
Below Average - 1B, SS
Disaster -

[lou]

Not a major league player, a guy who has been in the league for over a decade. Even Billy Hamilton's stats 2014-2018, make him a great defensive SS, and I still think that plays.

A great comparison if Nunez is that slick defensively. Nicky Lopez 2021 is another.

I am a big fan of trading 40 TB for 10 outs in a SB/CS analysis. It really moves the needle if Nunez is a low .600 OPS hitter.

[lou]

these fangraph projections are awful. Sanchez is projected for .4 WAR in only 140 PA in LF yet last year in a complete disaster of a year he put up a .9 WAR? I get that they will give him PA's in RF and DH but he will primarily be playing in LF. Cooper's projections were bad, and the SS projections were ridiculously high. These projection systems as i have been saying are awful. Lets revisit these at the end of the year.

That's a 1.6 WAR pace over 560 PA which is well above his career 1.4 WAR over 623 PA. That's a 1.8 WAR if scaled to 623 PA. Which is frankly roughly 23% more production. What more are you expecting here with Sanchez than projecting someone 23% better? That seems fair to me in a vacuum and would be GREAT if Sanchez drops a 1.8 WAR pace this year per 600+ PA??? I'll take that all day. That's a very reasonable projection and he clearly he has upside for more. So does DLC.

I also don't you get replacement value with Cooper and he is not that great when compared to his peers even if he is a solid MLB hitter. Also 23rd best SS situation in baseball is ridiculously high?

[Lee Stone]

No sense arguing about something that will be demonstrable. Nunez will be up by June if not sooner.

[lou]

No sense arguing about something that will be demonstrable. Nunez will be up by June if not sooner.

If he turns into a meteor prospect, I can assure you he won't be up until mid-June for service time control reasons. So let's dispel the if not sooner part as that is a 0% chance.

Also, how deep is he on the SS depth chart?

Wendle
Iglesias
Berti
Amaya
Segura/Groshans
Hinojosa
X. Edwards
Hampson
De Goti

A lot of problems will have to happen for him to get to AAA let alone the MLB level this summer.

[fish16]

No sense arguing about something that will be demonstrable. Nunez will be up by June if not sooner.

lol, Nunez probably wont even be up by june of next year let alone this year. He's like 7th on the depth chart for SS's, if not lower. Iglesias, Wendle, Segura, Berti, amaya, Groshans, Edwards,

[fish16]

wow, now rhys hoskins looks like he just hurt his knee badly as well. Phillies can be without Hoskins and Harper for most of the year now. Mets without Diaz and nimmo is week to week.

[fish16]

latest mish and barry jackson story just came out. Cueto threw yesterday and was fine and will throw again tomorrow. Sanchez and DLC will both make the team. Final roster spot will come down to iglesias and gurriel, who both have gotten off to slow spring starts. both of those guys can also opt out after saturday if they have another opportunity elsewhere. they think DLC was the unluckiest player in baseball last year. Marlins obviously havent spoken to cooper about an extension after this year yet. DLC said he wasnt focusing or either thinking too much about his ab's in the field and his fielding while he was hitting. Said rojas helped him to slow down and just focus on what he's doing at the moment.