2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

Marlins Park could bumble this.

gates were announced to open at 5:00 PM

5:22 and there are thousands of people outside waiting to get in

[fish16]

Trevor rogers has been tremendous in spring training. He said today his command has never been better and the stats back that up. 9 innings, 11 k, 0 bb, just 2 er after todays Hr by Josh lowe. Other than that perfecf

[Namaste]

Marlins Park could bumble this.

gates were announced to open at 5:00 PM

5:22 and there are thousands of people outside waiting to get in

A few hiccups but we had a great time.

The hiccups:

-gates were supposed to open at 5:00 and they opened at 5:32. The problem is, they opened the security line at 5:00 and then when they opened the gates, they opened 3 of 4 (on the 3rd base side). All of this created a crush of people.

-the food choices were not nearly as good as a regular Marlins game

-parking is double the price ($40). Not the end of the world but just info sharing

The Good:

-The PA announcer wasn’t as annoying as rMarlins games. Was nice not hearing the guy shout and all of the subsequent echoes.

-The music was not deafening loud like Marlins games. -l

-Seeing the 300 level absolutely packed was cool. And the wait times for food and drink were not insane in the 300 level


I strongly suggest arriving 2 to 2.5 hours before the game starts like we did. The crush of traffic after that is wild. The 3rd base parking garage is closed (it’s VIP only). This will cause you serious parking problems if you don’t arrive early.

We are going back tonight for PR v Venezuela. I can’t wait to see USA if they advance.

[Lee Stone]

Glad that you are having a great overall experience!

[rmc523]

The wbc games at marlins park are always so electric. If we can ever make the playoff games it really will be such a good atmosphere in that place

Agreed - it's why I wish we could've gotten in there in the 2020 season.

[lou]

That Corbin Carroll extension is nuts. They are paying him a shade under Soto and Julio as an impact superstar. It's hard to see how they are valuing it, but it looks like they are valuing his arbitration years around....$36-38m and free agency years at $30m (If they pick up the last year extension, the free agency valuation shifts down to like $27m or something negligible). For perspective, Bryan Reynolds is going to make like $25m+ in arbitration years and he has paced as a 4+ WAR/600 PA player for his career. Which is very good and Carroll is way above that. Sandy is going to make $56m the same service years as Carroll is going to make $111m(!). So Carroll is quite the step up. They think he is going to be a super-duper star and they probably didn't really "save" any money here they just secured 2-3 free agency years to guarantee him all of this. There is value in that, but wow. I have to imagine a second benefit is they want to shave his luxury tax number for 4-8 years down the road when they emerge into their contending window when Lawlar, Jones, and others are up. Basically, you can see the writing on the wall that the Diamondbacks are going to spend some big big payrolls starting in 25/26 for 4-5 years. You know, how normal teams create contending windows and go for it when their players are ready.

So any hope that Jazz may sign an extension is out the door IMO. The comps say 6/$75ish (including 2023) is a realistic deal, but this is another level. Maybe Carroll is in fact that special and he's a tier above Jazz (I think we all agree Jazz is not a Soto/Julio kind of guy), but I can't see a world the Marlins go off-comps and devote much more to Jazz here in an offer. No way they could pay him what the Dbacks are doing here with Carroll. Marlins should offer that effectively 5/$74m extension and see if he'll take it, absent that reassess till next year. Big differences with a 3-4-5 WAR Jazz in valuing him, and my guess is he's more of a Reynolds than Carroll but we'll see. What's the defense look like and is he staying out there longterm?

Further, if Jazz is untenable on an extension right now, this starts eyeing Arraez and Luzardo on deals even more to start finding areas to save money/create value longterm. Those guys are none of the guys listed above even if very good. Arraez is probably a $70m extension and Luzardo probably a little more now based on recent comps and maybe $40+m. I think that's a better use of the same money in the Carroll deal. So they should focus on this, see if they get lucky with Jazz, and then next year god-willingly we are looking at Jazz, Rogers, and maybe Cabrera extensions even if Jazz is very very expensive. We'll see.

[lou]

Trevor rogers has been tremendous in spring training. He said today his command has never been better and the stats back that up. 9 innings, 11 k, 0 bb, just 2 er after todays Hr by Josh lowe. Other than that perfecf

I know I have posted this before, but Fangraphs saw this coming in September before the season was over - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-r...changed-it-up/

I'm not sure he'll ever get back to the 2021 performance rates personally (which was pacing 5+WAR for a full season), but I have had low concerns over him and he's going to be good. I do think we all may (or at least me) have been a little cavalier in just wanting to trade him for Reynolds (even if the package works). Hopefully he makes all that talk foolish and as mentioned above, they can extend Luzardo this year, Rogers next year, and maybe Cabrera in 2025.... and then Eury 2026. Could you imagine a 5 year cascade of SP extensions. Because that could happen here. Dreams.

[fish16]

watching the WBC, arraez is just such a pure hitter. he's going to be an absolute joy to watch compared to the swing and miss shit we've been watching for the last few years.

Also, pablo was throwing harder than he did last year in is start yesterday. Granted he's capped at 65 pitches so that could potentially explain going a little harder than normal.

[fish16]

I know I have posted this before, but Fangraphs saw this coming in September before the season was over - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-r...changed-it-up/

I'm not sure he'll ever get back to the 2021 performance rates personally (which was pacing 5+WAR for a full season), but I have had low concerns over him and he's going to be good. I do think we all may (or at least me) have been a little cavalier in just wanting to trade him for Reynolds (even if the package works). Hopefully he makes all that talk foolish and as mentioned above, they can extend Luzardo this year, Rogers next year, and maybe Cabrera in 2025.... and then Eury 2026. Could you imagine a 5 year cascade of SP extensions. Because that could happen here. Dreams.

His overall numbers in 2021 were terrific, but he definitely fell off in the 2nd half. It's also worth mentioning that despite his terrible overall numbers last year, his peripherals were still very decent. He had a 5.47 ERA and a 4.11 XFIp. His XFIP in 2021 was 3.54. So he is probably somewhere in between the 2, which is great, with the potential for an uptick as he develops more. He's probably not an ace level guy, but he should be a very steady #3 type for the next few years.

[lou]

Some Yankees beat writers are talking about Volpe breaking with the team. I'm understanding that to be "April 15th-April 18th" for service time reasons, but if he is ready I don't think they will hold him back and they don't care about Super2 statuses as a contender.

Peraza may be a dream, but there is a real opportunity here to think about getting Gleyber IMO. If they got him and traded Cooper, payroll only moves around $6m up and there is an obvious reshuffle there with Arraez. Gleyber is going to hit IMO. I bet Garrett could easily make this work in a package, and maybe they'd trade Sweeney instead of Peraza/Volpe in a deal and Sweeney could be a perfect R/L 3B combo with Groshans when Segura is done. I don't love Arraez at 1B, but an improvement is an improvement. I think they should be all over this. I am thinking Cooper and trading one of DLC/Sanchez get guys that can replace Garrett, etc.

[rmc523]

Some Yankees beat writers are talking about Volpe breaking with the team. I'm understanding that to be "April 15th-April 18th" for service time reasons, but if he is ready I don't think they will hold him back and they don't care about Super2 statuses as a contender.

Peraza may be a dream, but there is a real opportunity here to think about getting Gleyber IMO. If they got him and traded Cooper, payroll only moves around $6m up and there is an obvious reshuffle there with Arraez. Gleyber is going to hit IMO. I bet Garrett could easily make this work in a package, and maybe they'd trade Sweeney instead of Peraza/Volpe in a deal and Sweeney could be a perfect R/L 3B combo with Groshans when Segura is done. I don't love Arraez at 1B, but an improvement is an improvement. I think they should be all over this. I am thinking Cooper and trading one of DLC/Sanchez get guys that can replace Garrett, etc.

They're also the Yankees, and can buy whoever they want to replace the guy if he leaves early and/or give him a massive extension if deemed worthy. So 1) it hasn't happened yet, and 2) I'd hardly use them as an even comparison.

[Namaste]

The USA has to win out AND other things have to happen for them to advance out of their Pool after they got torched last night.

None of the Top 10 American born pitchers are on the USA team

[lou]

They're also the Yankees, and can buy whoever they want to replace the guy if he leaves early and/or give him a massive extension if deemed worthy. So 1) it hasn't happened yet, and 2) I'd hardly use them as an even comparison.

Not sure what this means, but the Yankees are brushing up on luxury tier thresholds so they have real incentives to lower payroll and those 2 would give them breathing room.

[fish16]

id be very hesitant to trade Cooper. He does get injured, but id take the chance on him finding a way to stay healthy and hitting well, and it keeps arraez at 2b and Jazz in CF. When cooper is healthy, he hits and he has power. His bat is sadly very key to the lineup performing. What about wendle, garrett for Gleyber. that's something i would do and would make sense for both sides. Wendle is a FA to be, we have no need for Wendle if gleyber is here, and he is making more than cooper anyways i believe, but less than gleyber so it would still be something that gets them below the tax plus allows them to address the SP need immediately.

[rmc523]

Not sure what this means, but the Yankees are brushing up on luxury tier thresholds so they have real incentives to lower payroll and those 2 would give them breathing room.

I guess my point was that they're not necessarily worried about playing service time games like we would be.