2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Rojas 2022 BABIP: .258

Iglesias 2022 BABIP: .326

You’re right. Fangraphs is wrong.

No notes. If Iglesias was better, he'd be on the Dodgers with Amaya right now.


Iglesias is fine as a 13th man FWIW. This was a need.... so why the F didn't they sign Andrus for $3m bucks which is what he got from the White Sox? Andrus was borderline awesome last year. Anyways, I do agree with fish16 that Wendle/Iglesias makes for a high floor defensive SS situation and gets Berti off of SS which is great. It's not the SS we want, but it's the poor man's SS this organization deserves.


But they have 14 guys now. One too many. I'm not counting Groshans, Burdick, Amaya, Hampson, etc. Stick them in AAA.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper, Gurriel
Arraez
Wendle, Iglesias
Segura, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
Jazz
Garcia
Soler

I suppose they can keep Iglesias or Gurriel in the minors for now, but Sanchez is OOO. He's sticking. DLC has one option left but he isn't going down and not at the expense of Sanchez.

Maybe I am too optimistic, but is this setting up a move? They could ditch two of DLC, Sanchez, Wendle, and Cooper along with SP, and replace with "1" 1B (Casas), SS (Rosario/Peraza), or LF (Reynolds) and you can make that depth chart work easily moving some guys around. Just saying, Iglesias and Yuli probably know they are going to play a bit and that ain't happening unless they ship someone out. Maybe something is brewing here and it's not just moving Sanchez for a RP.

[fish16]

No notes. If Iglesias was better, he'd be on the Dodgers with Amaya right now.


Iglesias is fine as a 13th man FWIW. This was a need.... so why the F didn't they sign Andrus for $3m bucks which is what he got from the White Sox? Andrus was borderline awesome last year. Anyways, I do agree with fish16 that Wendle/Iglesias makes for a high floor defensive SS situation and gets Berti off of SS which is great. It's not the SS we want, but it's the poor man's SS this organization deserves.


But they have 14 guys now. One too many. I'm not counting Groshans, Burdick, Amaya, Hampson, etc. Stick them in AAA.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper, Gurriel
Arraez
Wendle, Iglesias
Segura, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
Jazz
Garcia
Soler

I suppose they can keep Iglesias or Gurriel in the minors for now, but Sanchez is OOO. He's sticking. DLC has one option left but he isn't going down and not at the expense of Sanchez.

Maybe I am too optimistic, but is this setting up a move? They could ditch two of DLC, Sanchez, Wendle, and Cooper along with SP, and replace with "1" 1B (Casas), SS (Rosario/Peraza), or LF (Reynolds) and you can make that depth chart work easily moving some guys around. Just saying, Iglesias and Yuli probably know they are going to play a bit and that ain't happening unless they ship someone out. Maybe something is brewing here and it's not just moving Sanchez for a RP.

rojas is a better asset of course. All i was saying is that iglesias was better than rojas last year. rojas was terrible last year. Maybe he bounces back, but he was one of the worst hitters in the league last year.

[lou]

It's almost as if his hard hit rates have plummeted since 2019 and 2020 when he had his best seasons. In 2019, his hard hit rate was 35.6%, then 31.8% in his best year in the covid shortened year. Those years his soft hit % was 14.3 and 13.1. Last year his hard hit rate was 20.8% and soft hit rate was 18.8% and his medium % rate was the highest of his career by a good chunk. Rojas for his career is a .288 BABIP. Iglesias is .310. He wasnt far off from his career numbers.

Neither has power, but iglesias had a higher line drive% and ground ball rate. His fly ball rate was 7% less than rojas, which is normally not what you want, but it is when neither player has power.

there is not a single metric where rojas was better than iglesias last year offensively. Iglesias isnt a huge bat, but rojas was a terrible hitter last year.

This took 1 minute. Here's 6 metrics:

Average Exit Velocity
Iglesias 1%
Rojas 7%

Barrels
Iglesias 1%
Rojas 3%

BB
Iglesias 2%
Rojas 12%

xwOBA
Iglesias 12%
Rojas 22%

xSLUG
Iglesias 6%
Rojas 16%

Chase Rate
Iglesias 3%
Rojas 41%


Also not offensively, defense does count and this is *massive*

OAA
Iglesias 48%
Rojas 98%(!)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

[fish16]

This took 1 minute. Here's 6 metrics:

Average Exit Velocity
Iglesias 1%
Rojas 7%

Barrels
Iglesias 1%
Rojas 3%

BB
Iglesias 2%
Rojas 12%

xwOBA
Iglesias 12%
Rojas 22%

xSLUG
Iglesias 6%
Rojas 16%

Chase Rate
Iglesias 3%
Rojas 41%


Also not offensively, defense does count and this is *massive*

OAA
Iglesias 48%
Rojas 98%(!)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

so just to be clear, the things iglesias is terrible at rojas is slightly less terrible? Every single one of those stats other than chase rate says that rojas was also terrible in those areas.

Yes, iglesias isnt a power hitter. What he produced offensively last year was markedly better than rojas because iglesias has speed. neither are overall significantly productive offensive players. Iglesias sprint speed on that website was 78, rojas was 29. Neither walk, and both are elite in terms of not striking out, and both are slap hitters. Igelsias is fast which is why his numbers are better, this isnt rocket science, and no one is saying iglesias is anything more than a slap hitter, but he has speed and plays to his game. Rojas doesnt and that's why his offensive numbers fell of a cliff last year when his slugging numbers plummeted from what they were in 2021 and especially what it was in 2020

[lou]

so just to be clear, the things iglesias is terrible at rojas is slightly less terrible? Every single one of those stats other than chase rate says that rojas was also terrible in those areas.

Yes, iglesias isnt a power hitter. What he produced offensively last year was markedly better than rojas because iglesias has speed. neither are overall significantly productive offensive players. Iglesias sprint speed on that website was 78, rojas was 29. Neither walk, and both are elite in terms of not striking out, and both are slap hitters. Igelsias is fast which is why his numbers are better, this isnt rocket science, and no one is saying iglesias is anything more than a slap hitter, but he has speed and plays to his game. Rojas doesnt and that's why his offensive numbers fell of a cliff last year when his slugging numbers plummeted from what they were in 2021 and especially what it was in 2020

The statement was - there is not a single metric where rojas was better than iglesias last year offensively. But now we are moving the goalposts to they both aren't very good offensive players. So you're wrong. And doubly wrong as you are radically underselling the defense.

But you are right, this isn't rocket science. If Iglesias was better, he'd be on the Dodgers and they'd still have Amaya. They saw him all year out west and opted to move a solid bench prospect in Amaya to inherit a contract much larger than Iglesias. That being said, Iglesias is a fine signing. It should have been a Correa, and then Swanson, and then Andrus, but at least they got a MLB defender and the infield works now. This helps bridge to July for sure.

The real question here is what I said above, they have 14 genuine MLB bats now. Is a real move coming? This helps move that needle.

[fish16]

The statement was - there is not a single metric where rojas was better than iglesias last year offensively. But now we are moving the goalposts to they both aren't very good offensive players. So you're wrong. And doubly wrong as you are radically underselling the defense.

But you are right, this isn't rocket science. If Iglesias was better, he'd be on the Dodgers and they'd still have Amaya. They saw him all year out west and opted to move a solid bench prospect in Amaya to inherit a contract much larger than Iglesias. That being said, Iglesias is a fine signing. It should have been a Correa, and then Swanson, and then Andrus, but at least they got a MLB defender and the infield works now. This helps bridge to July for sure.

The real question here is what I said above, they have 14 genuine MLB bats now. Is a real move coming? This helps move that needle.

The original statement was that iglesias had a better year than Rojas did, and he did. If you want to find power stats that Rojas is better at barely sure, go ahead, that is neither of their games and it’s why they both rank terribly on every stat you posted. The reason he’s not a dodger is because Rojas is clearly the better asset. That’s not something I disputed. I said iglesias was a better hitter last year, and he was. Rojas was the third worst hitter in baseball among qualified hitters. And yes namaste, Rojas was complete garbage last year offensively. Terrible, if you will

[lou]

The original statement was that iglesias had a better year than Rojas did, and he did. If you want to find power stats that Rojas is better at barely sure, go ahead, that is neither of their games and it’s why they both rank terribly on every stat you posted. The reason he’s not a dodger is because Rojas is clearly the better asset. That’s not something I disputed. I said iglesias was a better hitter last year, and he was. Rojas was the third worst hitter in baseball among qualified hitters. And yes namaste, Rojas was complete garbage last year offensively. Terrible, if you will

The direct quote is "Not sure how you're getting that rojas was anywhere near as good as Iglesias unless you're just looking at the WAR on espn's page that ridiculously overvalues rojas' defense." You can understand other's confusion based on these two points. And that ignores you are really under-selling defense. But yes, Rojas is clearly better. But...... Iglesias, Amaya, and having salary for Garrett Cooper (effectively Rojas salary pays for Cooper +13th man) is better than Rojas so in a vacuum, this was a good series of deals with Rojas and Iglesias in a world where Bruce refuses to spend money. This is fine. It doesn't move the needle, but it protects the floor which is worth something. And it lets them keep all the kids in AAA and they can further preserve service time.

They still need to make a larger move for Casas, Peraza, Rosario, Reynolds, Kim/Campusano..... you name it. But this helps inch to that.

[Namaste]

The direct quote is "Not sure how you're getting that rojas was anywhere near as good as Iglesias unless you're just looking at the WAR on espn's page that ridiculously overvalues rojas' defense." You can understand other's confusion based on these two points. And that ignores you are really under-selling defense. But yes, Rojas is clearly better. But...... Iglesias, Amaya, and having salary for Garrett Cooper (effectively Rojas salary pays for Cooper +13th man) is better than Rojas so in a vacuum, this was a good series of deals with Rojas and Iglesias in a world where Bruce refuses to spend money. This is fine. It doesn't move the needle, but it protects the floor which is worth something. And it lets them keep all the kids in AAA and they can further preserve service time.

They still need to make a larger move for Casas, Peraza, Rosario, Reynolds, Kim/Campusano..... you name it. But this helps inch to that.

I seriously doubt that

[Nick]

I have a feeling we're going to have a new appreciation for how good Rojas' defense was/is this year.

[fish16]

with guerriel and Iglesias, it gives us 2 more guys with elite contact skills, even if guerriel is coming off a down year, he has a track record of putting the ball in play and not striking out. If he can bounce back that's 2 really good weapons off the bench against lefties for a team that, again, was historically bad against lefties last year. If he is just cooked, you cut bait and move on.

Theres 2 questions with them to me- the first is will they be ready for opening day. I presume they have been at least working out to stay in shape, but will they be ready for opening day in less than 3 weeks. The 2nd is what that means for the rest of the roster construction. Groshans making the team is now off the table with iglesias, or if he makes the team he's going back down once iglesias is ready. And what does guerriel's addition by proxy mean for Sanchez and DLC. If Guerriel is on the team, it is presumably to play against lefties either at 1b or DH with cooper splitting that time, and then Soler plays LF in those situations and Dh's against righties. So do they carry DLC and Sanchez or is there a move to be made somewhere. There isnt enough roster spots unless they are carrying 12 pitchers, which might make sense given braxton garrett's ability as a 6th starter to pitch a lot of innings out of the bullpen.

The way i see it now against lefties is:

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Iglesias
3b- Segura
LF- Soler
CF- JAzz
RF- Garcia
DH- Guerriel
Bench- DLC, Sanchez, Berti, Stallings, Wendle

Against righties it would be

C-
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Wendle
3b- Segura
LF- DLC/Sanchez
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler

Bench- DLC/Sanchez, Guerriel, Berti, Backup C, Iglesias

To me, this leaves them a decision of whether they keep Sanchez or DLC on the opening day roster, send 1 to the minors if there are options left, or trade 1 of them for another impact reliever that might be available at the end of spring. I like the last option, but if/when Iglesias and Guerriel are ready, they have a fairly important decision to make on how to handle those 2 guys.

I really like the option of trading one for another Puk type reliever and really solidifying the bullpen. We're going to have a mediocre offense, if we can do everything possible to shore up the bullpen so that when we have leads we keep them, im in favor of that. To me, Sanchez and DLC are a little repetitive, so if they feel one is a better bet than the other and make a move, im cool with it, especially with Burdick right behind them and ready as a platoon guy for either one of them after maybe 1-2 more months in AAA to start the year.

[fish16]

I have a feeling we're going to have a new appreciation for how good Rojas' defense was/is this year.

it's not that i dont have an appreciation for his defense, it's that there is very little chance to be an impact player overall when you were as bad as he was offensively last year. I dont care how good the defense is, we can find a good defensive SS (wendle and iglesias are both good defensive SS's), if you were as bad as he was last year as a hitter (3rd worst OPS in baseball out of qualified hitters) it's hard to justify giving that guy so much playing time on a team desperate for offense. He had a wrist injury so he likely bounces back to the average offensive player he was for us the couple of years prior and is a net positive again, but he was terrible as a hitter last year. Not to mention he went from locker room savior to locker room issue by all accounts.

And that's all i was saying about iglesias. Rojas is obviously the better player and the better asset, especially if he is healthy. all i was saying is that iglesias was better offensively last year, which by all measures of actual production, he was. Iglesias hit's lefties competently and plays solid defense, Wendle hits righties competently and plays solid defense. It's not correa, but it's a solid platoon in the alternative of having an owner who is actually trying to do everything possible to win.

[lou]

To me, this leaves them a decision of whether they keep Sanchez or DLC on the opening day roster, send 1 to the minors if there are options left, or trade 1 of them for another impact reliever that might be available at the end of spring. I like the last option, but if/when Iglesias and Guerriel are ready, they have a fairly important decision to make on how to handle those 2 guys.

Sanchez is OOO, DLC has 1.

Big picture, you are right someone has to go. I'd bet on DLC and Sanchez though. I'd trade Cooper for a prospect and go with Arraez at 1B. DLC/Sanchez have more control and upside and don't cost $4m. Cooper could easily be moved to a team looking for a DH. It is exactly what I don't want to happen with Arraez primarily going to 1B, but it gets Segura to 2B, Wendle/Berti can handle 3B, and Wendle/Iglesias can handle SS. That's a really good defensive infield. They can also avoid Soler in the OF if the front 4 OF all work out, which I am optimistic about.

Something like this on paper:

Starts
Fortes(81)/Stallings(81)
Arraez(112)/Gurriel(50)
Segura(132)/Arraez(30)
Iglesias(100)/Wendle(62)
Berti(110)/Wendle(52)
DLC(82)/Sanchez(80)
Jazz(132)/DLC(30)
Garcia(132)/Sanchez(30)
Soler(140)/Gurriel(22)

Arraez 142
Soler 140
Jazz 132
Garcia 132
Segura 132
Wendle 114
DLC 112
Berti 110
Sanchez 110
Iglesias 100
Fortes 81
Stallings 81
Gurriell 72

And this set up gives Jazz, Berti, DLC, and Gurriel in particular plenty of opportunity to poach games off Wendle, Sanchez, and Iglesias if Jazz does in fact hit lefties and isn't a defensive liability, Berti plays like 2022, DLC plays like statcast, and Gurriel plays like 2021. Effectively, this depth chart works itself out based on performance and has the defensive floors.



This is also SCREAMING for Reynolds/Casas to replace Sanchez/DLC (if Casas, Soler/Berti would play more in the OF with Arraez back at 2B, etc.), or Peraza/Rosario to replace Wendle(which would clear $6m if Peraza). Those are easy reshuffles of time to get a new upgrade 140 games vulturing effectively DLC/Sanchez/Wendle in total and shaving some games off every below Segura above.


That being said while typing this... they asked for Gleyber before from the Yankees and they could do this very easily and just ditch J. Sanchez (yankees could use a young lefty OF as a throw in). This is addition to chucking Cooper.

Fortes(81)/Stallings(81)
Arraez(142)/Gurriel(20)
Gleyber(132)/Berti(30)
Iglesias(100)/Wendle(62)
Segura(132)/Wendle(30)
Berti(80)/DLC(52)/Soler(30)
Jazz(132)/DLC(30)
Garcia(132)/DLC(30)
Soler(110)/Gurriel(52)


That team works. Gleyber would be a huge upgrade to effectively Jesus Sanchez PA and reshuffling the crew defensively to adjust that. Everyone is still eating here and same as above, gives Jazz/Berti/DLC/Gurriel to eat into time if each others and Wendle/Iglesias PA if they suck or if Garcia throws another lemon.

Food for thought. They can do a lot of things here still, and they should as they need a bat upgrade. They'd need more than Gleyber, but that's what the deadline is for, etc.

[fish16]

From what Barry jackson is saying, they dont want Arraez at 1b, they want him to focus on 2nd the reason they signed gurriel is because they didnt like the backup options at 1b in Groshans and Fortes. Id prefer to trade one of DLC or Sanchez because i think their value in a trade would be higher than Cooper. cooper has the injury history and is a free agent to be. I also think he's a better hitter than either of them when he's healthy. He's also our only real 1b option other than guerriel and trading him would be putting a lot of faith in gurriel coming off the down year. I'd take the chance on cooper and hope he gets luckier with the injuries and stays healthy and mashes this year. Trading DLC and Sanchez wouldnt be creating a hole anywhere, it would just be creating more clarity in LF, so i'd make a decision between the 2 and trade 1 if you can get another impact reliever.

Or, make the pirates an offer they can't refuse for Reynolds and make it all moot. Give them Sanchez, Rogers, Meyer/Eder, and lower level guys or whatever combo works. I wouldnt do cabrera or Luzardo though. they can make it work with Rogers, and rogers has looked much better in spring than he did at any point last year. IF they can get Reynolds, everything becomes a lot clearer, and the additions of Gurriel and Iglesias make a lot more sense and gives them a lot of platoon options to create real positional value out of mediocre players similar to how the rays operate.

All of a sudden, vs righties you have

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Wendle
3b- Segura
LF- Reynolds
CF- Jazz
Rf- Garcia
DH- Soler

Bench- DLC, Berti, Backup C, Iglesias, Gurriel

Lefties

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Iglesias
3b- Segura
Lf- Reynolds
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia/Soler
DH- Gurriel

Bench- Berti, DLC, Backup C, Wendle, Gurriel

It still feels one OF too heavy.

[fish16]

This WBC action so far is great. Looking forward to the games in miami

[rmc523]

While I wish we had signed a Correa or other big SS, at least we're getting some depth/backups at positions there are some questions about.



I'm very interested to see how she handles the roster IN SEASON this year, as that was a catastrophe the last 2 years. Leaving the ML team short handed for weeks at a time was ridiculous. A day-to-day guy, ok. But guys clearly hurt and unable to contribute for weeks should be put on the IL and a replacement brought in. Coupled with Don's bizarre unnecessary double switches, leaving the club even more short handed at the end of games, and we were in bad shape.

So, we'll see:

1a) If it was her?

1b) If so, did she learn from her mistakes over the last 2 years?

or 2) was it others in the org above/beside her (Jeter, Denbo) that collectively couldn't agree and caused paralysis, and therefore no moves.