2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

Outside of the box trade idea. Musgrove got hurt and might miss some time. Padres SP is thin otherwise with all their trades. They could really use a 6th SP as a contender.

Garrett, Cooper, Stallings.... for
Kim, Campusano

The Padres can shift Cronenworth back to 2B, Cooper/Carpenter can each play 1B and give each other the off days they need, and Stallings is fine as the backup to Nola or a pure timeshare. Tatis is still in RF here if any infielder gets hurt and they can shuffle from there. Garrett is a huge longterm get for them and Cooper/Stallings are useful enough. The Marlins could maybe throw in something like R. Hernandez (barely top 20 prospect C) or any catcher in the system not named Mack also. I think there are some variations to this also - they could get them Fortes versus Stallings and Cabrera over Garrett with Padres kicking in something else - but this sort of thing makes A LOT of sense to me for everyone. The Padres can live without those guys for an arm. The Marlins need some positional upgrades.


So the Marlins perspective, Kim is roughly 2/$15 with a 2025 option TBD on plate appearances. The Marlins actually save $500k doing this move for 2023, but absorb another $10m with Kim next year and the option buyout. He's worth it to bridge SS another year (or move him to 2B if they got Rosario in next year's FA, etc.). Campusano is club controlled 2023-2024 and will be a super 2 in 2025, arbitration 2026-2028. He has an option this year if he has to go down. An absolutely huge longterm move for a maybe catcher, or a hybrid backup catcher/part time DH player who should hit. I can see a world where Fortes would start 100, Campusano 62, and Campusano starts another 70+ games at DH. That sets up Berry in a perfect world to be a 1B, or part time 1B and he gets the rest of the DH time.

Kim has a career .741 OPS vs LHP and is superb defensively. He's a better Rojas IMO. He's a perfect compliment to Wendle. He had a 3.7 WAR last year which is likely (vastly) overachieving, but he's a floor 2+ WAR defender kind of like Rojas. They could set up an IF defensive situation like this:

(Starts)
C - Fortes 81 / Campusano 81
1B - Arraez 142 / Fortes 20(right?)
2B - Segura 130 / Wendle 32
SS - Kim 130 / Wendle 32
3B - Berti 110 / Wendle 52

Yes I know I am firmly against Arraez at 1B, but, the combo of (1) an above average SS with Kim and really building out this IF depth + (2) whatever value one gets moving Segura to 2B + (3) betting on the longterm bat of Campusano (I know I have Nick's attention here) + (4) not being required carrying another MI on the roster as Arraez and Jazz could operate as the 5th MI so your last bench spot can be a bat, i.e. a specialist like Burdick mashing lefties (ideally this is a 1B though), is worth having "inefficient" defensive placement at 1B. Practically, this is one of the best defensive infields in baseball IMO as Arraez would be very good there (and now I have fish16's attention), the bat just would play more at 2B. But you'd have to do this as it's a net gain offensively short term and long term with what Kim would do for the defense.

So the pitching. I think they'd be in dangerous waters without all 6 of the MLB SP.... but maybe you stretch out Puk a little and get a surprise from someone like Smeltzer. Longterm obviously no SP issues with Eury/Eder/Meyer/Fulton/Sixto coming by next summer. Some innings eaters (Dylan Bundy) are also out there and would be cheap. Basically, I'd bet on them figuring out the 6-7-8 SP over 150-200 IP versus relying on Groshans/LeBlanc/Amaya/Hampson having a competent 500+ PA.


Some food for thought. Some of you have mentioned recently you'd love to get out of Cooper, this is the smart way of doing that IMO and then figure out how to get Arraez back to 2B next year when you presumably don't re-sign Wendle (replaced by Amaya) and maybe Berti is gone too (replaced by Groshans/Edwards). Hopefully they are cooking something up here.

I would love this. Would the Padres insist on Rogers over Garrett, though?

[fish16]

i would absolutely hate that trade. We would be 1 injury away from having either eury in the rotation too early or someone like smeltzer pissing away every 5th game. Garrett should be in a rotation and he is tremendous depth for us. Kim is a good player last year and is cheap, but he was also a 70 WRC+ his first year. To trade away your starting C, starting 1b, and 6th SP who would be in pretty much every other teams rotation would be super short sighted. You can talk me into it maybe without cooper, but maybe that helps us get a longterm SS (MAYBE), but that has a very high chance of hurting the lineup significantly this year.

If you can do Garrett, Stallings, and a prospect or maybe wendle for Kim and Campusano i could maybe get behind that. But other than that, you're trading 3 key pieces to this years team potentially for a guy coming off 1 year who doesnt really hit all that well and doesnt do much to improve the offense over wendle. He might be a better overall player, but the bat isnt all that impressive. Through 2 full years he has a 93 WRC+. That's not the impact SS they need. He's a good player, but it doesnt fit what they need. Even last year, most of his value was defense. He only had a 105 WRC+.

And while campusano has talent, he's really done nothing at the big league level in an admittedly very small sample size. I think i would like Fortes just as much if not more as a longterm C.

If they are going to trade Garrett + for a SS, it needs to be a guy whose value is offensively based and is an impact hitter, not a rich man's rojas.

I wouldnt trade cooper until we are out of it. He hits when he's healthy. Maybe he sees free agency after this year and it clicks and he finally puts together a full healthy year and is a hugely impactful bat in the middle of our lineup along with Soler and Garcia.

[lou]

I would love this. Would the Padres insist on Rogers over Garrett, though?

Marlins need a major prospect coming back if they want him (or Luzardo) IMO.

They have two backend top 100 guys (Zavala (18 in rookie ball), Lesko-off a TJ also) but they are 4+ years away minimum. Value wise it probably makes sense if the Marlins were to ask for one of them (and maybe a low end "Soriano" type of right handed reliever in AAA), but the Marlins would really be kicking the can down the road with that guy and would *really* need another SP for right now. Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Anibal Sanchez.... FA is thin so they'd need a short term solution here if they traded better innings with Rogers. I think Rogers is going to be really good again and I'm not sure about Campusano, so I do think they'd have to get Zavala or Lesko and then that's a much larger and complicated deal. Those two have write ups here - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/ - and MLB thinks they are the Padres 2nd and 4th best prospects. Maybe there are some other guys the Marlins know about that would work as all we have are some fleeting early prospect lists, but who knows. I think Garrett or Cabrera makes a little more sense as they are around what Campusano is in "unproven" upside right now and then we're just swapping around some average starting players and some money. If the Padres want a better arm, they gotta pay up or a no thanks.

[fish16]

to me, SS is solved by finding whatever team has SS depth in the minors or an established starter in the majors and needs pitching. the SS needs to be bat first. Brooks lee is likely not available and we had a shot at him last year in the draft, but with Correa now there long term, maybe he can be available for a guy like Rogers or something. That's the type of move i think moves the needle without impacting the team too badly this year and beyond.

Or they could have just spent some fucking money on Correa and be looking at a playoff team this year. But what do i know.

[lou]

i would absolutely hate that trade. We would be 1 injury away from having either eury in the rotation too early or someone like smeltzer pissing away every 5th game. Garrett should be in a rotation and he is tremendous depth for us. Kim is a good player last year and is cheap, but he was also a 70 WRC+ his first year. To trade away your starting C, starting 1b, and 6th SP who would be in pretty much every other teams rotation would be super short sighted. You can talk me into it maybe without cooper, but maybe that helps us get a longterm SS (MAYBE), but that has a very high chance of hurting the lineup significantly this year.

If you can do Garrett, Stallings, and a prospect or maybe wendle for Kim and Campusano i could maybe get behind that. But other than that, you're trading 3 key pieces to this years team potentially for a guy coming off 1 year who doesnt really hit all that well and doesnt do much to improve the offense over wendle. He might be a better overall player, but the bat isnt all that impressive. Through 2 full years he has a 93 WRC+. That's not the impact SS they need. He's a good player, but it doesnt fit what they need. Even last year, most of his value was defense. He only had a 105 WRC+.

And while campusano has talent, he's really done nothing at the big league level in an admittedly very small sample size. I think i would like Fortes just as much if not more as a longterm C.

If they are going to trade Garrett + for a SS, it needs to be a guy whose value is offensively based and is an impact hitter, not a rich man's rojas.

I wouldnt trade cooper until we are out of it. He hits when he's healthy. Maybe he sees free agency after this year and it clicks and he finally puts together a full healthy year and is a hugely impactful bat in the middle of our lineup along with Soler and Garcia.

You're really all over the place here. Fortes is the team's starting catcher (or should be). Wendle is better than Cooper.... so you are effectively making the trade worse there. Kim is better than all of them, and is a radical improvement for the LHP lineup and depth. Large defensive gains everywhere. Campusano has huge upside and this is also a longterm move to have the compliment to Fortes in the organization. It beyond fits the Marlins needs for a + starter at SS who can handle lefties right now and bets on the future without losing Garrett's control years (Campusano also controlled for 6 years and Kim is controlled for 3). It also locks in your SS for next year and maybe 2025. It's a polar opposite of short sighted move. Payroll also goes down (nominally).

But they would absolutely need another SP for this year (or plus bulk reliever) and we'll have shifted questions about longer term SS and C to 2023 backup SP. Frankly, stretch out Puk. He wants to do it and let him throw 120+ innings... which is what Garrett was going to do anyways.

*And you can still trade for Reynolds and Brubaker with Eder, Berry, Meyer, Watson, and J. Sanchez BTW.

[lou]

to me, SS is solved by finding whatever team has SS depth in the minors or an established starter in the majors and needs pitching. the SS needs to be bat first. Brooks lee is likely not available and we had a shot at him last year in the draft, but with Correa now there long term, maybe he can be available for a guy like Rogers or something. That's the type of move i think moves the needle without impacting the team too badly this year and beyond.

Or they could have just spent some fucking money on Correa and be looking at a playoff team this year. But what do i know.

Brooks Lee won't be available. I've already done a deep dive into SS - it's Adames and Rosario who likely will be available. The prospect route is unlikely at the moment but we'll see who gains value.

and yes to the bold.

[Lee Stone]

On Lou's trade: baseball trade value site has Kim (18.4) and Campusano (8.4) as basically an exact match in value to Garrett (19.3), Cooper (5.2) and Stallings (1.8). Rogers, on the other hand, sits at 43.8 all by himself. (Of note, Puk and Bleday had exactly the same values prior to that trade. I think it was around 4.1 each.)

Personally, I favor defense for this team and think that Chisholm to CF instead of 2B is likely a huge mistake. The Arreaz for Lopez and Salas deal was one of the most lopsided ever for the BTV formula.

[Todd]

Please stop referencing that trash website.

[fish16]

You're really all over the place here. Fortes is the team's starting catcher (or should be). Wendle is better than Cooper.... so you are effectively making the trade worse there. Kim is better than all of them, and is a radical improvement for the LHP lineup and depth. Large defensive gains everywhere. Campusano has huge upside and this is also a longterm move to have the compliment to Fortes in the organization. It beyond fits the Marlins needs for a + starter at SS who can handle lefties right now and bets on the future without losing Garrett's control years (Campusano also controlled for 6 years and Kim is controlled for 3). It also locks in your SS for next year and maybe 2025. It's a polar opposite of short sighted move. Payroll also goes down (nominally).

But they would absolutely need another SP for this year (or plus bulk reliever) and we'll have shifted questions about longer term SS and C to 2023 backup SP. Frankly, stretch out Puk. He wants to do it and let him throw 120+ innings... which is what Garrett was going to do anyways.

*And you can still trade for Reynolds and Brubaker with Eder, Berry, Meyer, Watson, and J. Sanchez BTW.

They have shown 0 indication that the catcher position will be anything other than a 50/50 split, if not more to Stallings with fortes playing a little first. Wendle is not better than Cooper other than that he stays healthy which is valuable, but in terms of pure ability, Cooper is better and definitely more important to the team. also, including wendle instead of cooper would not make the trade worse because wendle would have no starting spot with Kim and with cooper included we have no first baseman.

Kim had a .765 OPS and a slugging percentage under .400 against lefties last year,and a .672 OPS against lefties the year prior. He isnt some lefty masher, unless you compare it to his abilities against righties. He's a fine player, and he is an upgrade at SS, but he isnt the kind of upgrade they need. They need a mashing power hitting SS, not a slap hitter with no power.

Willy Adames or Rosario would be the play, and they wouldnt cost a ton if they ever become available because i believe both are free agents at the end of the year. Adames has been the guy who has made the most sense for a while, though im not sure what the fuck the brewers are doing or if he ever becomes available.

But him at the 2 spot between Arraez and Jazz would be a tremendous addition. they need more power hitters, and they need them pretty desperately barring Soler breaking out for 47 homers again and Garcia having a career year, and even then, they probably need 1 more guy.

IF, and it is a huge IF, they get reynolds in a big deal, then you could convince me on Kim. but absent that, his bat doesnt move the needle whatsoever this year.

[lou]

They have shown 0 indication that the catcher position will be anything other than a 50/50 split, if not more to Stallings with fortes playing a little first. Wendle is not better than Cooper other than that he stays healthy which is valuable, but in terms of pure ability, Cooper is better and definitely more important to the team. also, including wendle instead of cooper would not make the trade worse because wendle would have no starting spot with Kim and with cooper included we have no first baseman.

Kim had a .765 OPS and a slugging percentage under .400 against lefties last year,and a .672 OPS against lefties the year prior. He isnt some lefty masher, unless you compare it to his abilities against righties. He's a fine player, and he is an upgrade at SS, but he isnt the kind of upgrade they need. They need a mashing power hitting SS, not a slap hitter with no power.

Willy Adames or Rosario would be the play, and they wouldnt cost a ton if they ever become available because i believe both are free agents at the end of the year. Adames has been the guy who has made the most sense for a while, though im not sure what the fuck the brewers are doing or if he ever becomes available.

But him at the 2 spot between Arraez and Jazz would be a tremendous addition. they need more power hitters, and they need them pretty desperately barring Soler breaking out for 47 homers again and Garcia having a career year, and even then, they probably need 1 more guy.

IF, and it is a huge IF, they get reynolds in a big deal, then you could convince me on Kim. but absent that, his bat doesnt move the needle whatsoever this year.

Kim had a 3.7 WAR last year, which would have been the 2nd best player on the Marlins. He's frankly exactly what they need and it's fine if he is saving runs in a "no shift" infield versus hitting bombs. Wendle is a better player than Cooper, safer with the defensive floor. Ignoring health also. And I like Cooper. We've gone over many times how the team needs 100+ starts in the infield right now so Wendle (and Berti's) time wouldn't be impacted by getting a real infielder. The trickle down of getting an infielder will eat into DLC and Sanchez by ways of Berti, Soler, or maybe even Arraez kicking out into the OF more. Adames is controlled 2 years and would cost a ton - greater than Pablo value. Brewers are a contender also so he's a deadline guy if that. Rosario can probably be had easier as while they are a contender, they have depth and are cheap. Cleveland is workable.

But I do agree, if the line in the sand is "contender" they'd also need to liquidate the farm for Reynolds/Brubaker as Kim/Campusano wouldn't be enough. Maybe this is where Profar could fit in too. Regardless, I'm about taking steps forward. Was just a thought with Musgrove going down, the Marlins really can help them out on both their SP depth chart and helping sort out their over the top infield depth mess. There is a package here in some permutation if the Marlins can find a 100+ IP 6th SP for this year only. Which I think they can.

[lou]

On Lou's trade: baseball trade value site has Kim (18.4) and Campusano (8.4) as basically an exact match in value to Garrett (19.3), Cooper (5.2) and Stallings (1.8). Rogers, on the other hand, sits at 43.8 all by himself. (Of note, Puk and Bleday had exactly the same values prior to that trade. I think it was around 4.1 each.)

Personally, I favor defense for this team and think that Chisholm to CF instead of 2B is likely a huge mistake. The Arreaz for Lopez and Salas deal was one of the most lopsided ever for the BTV formula.

That website is generally trash, but they seem right about the general value of those guys (not Puk and Bleday that's LOL. I think the Marlins destroyed them but maybe I am wrong. Likewise they gave it too much for Arraez, but not killingly lopsided if Salas is a FV45 guy now.).

Also they could use a lefty so maybe it's Garrett, J. Sanchez, and Stallings and not Cooper. It accomplishes the same thing from the Marlins perspective and maybe they'd pick up an extra prospect from the Padres as Sanchez has way more control if he works out. That opens room for a Profar signing too so it could be Garrett, J. Sanchez, and Stallings out..... and Kim, Campusano, Profar, Dylan Bundy in.

They could probably do this for around $105m total payroll with kicking some Profar/Bundy money to next year.

Fortes, Campusano
Arraez, Cooper
Segura
Kim
Berti, Wendle
Profar, DLC
Jazz
Garica
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Rogers, Cabrera
Barnes, Floro, Chargois, D. Bundy, Enright/AAA
Puk, Scott, Okert


That team is going to be scrappy and they'd have trade deadline ammo for Reynolds big time + Eury/Eder on the way if they arrive Fernandez style this year. I'd like 1 more bat and 1 more reliever, but it's frankly waiting to the deadline. TBH maybe you don't even need Profar here and you just keep Burdick to hit lefties and Arraez pops out to LF to Cooper is still playing 100+ games. It would work itself out no doubt.

[fish16]

Kim had a 3.7 WAR last year, which would have been the 2nd best player on the Marlins. He's frankly exactly what they need and it's fine if he is saving runs in a "no shift" infield versus hitting bombs. Wendle is a better player than Cooper, safer with the defensive floor. Ignoring health also. And I like Cooper. We've gone over many times how the team needs 100+ starts in the infield right now so Wendle (and Berti's) time wouldn't be impacted by getting a real infielder. The trickle down of getting an infielder will eat into DLC and Sanchez by ways of Berti, Soler, or maybe even Arraez kicking out into the OF more. Adames is controlled 2 years and would cost a ton - greater than Pablo value. Brewers are a contender also so he's a deadline guy if that. Rosario can probably be had easier as while they are a contender, they have depth and are cheap. Cleveland is workable.

But I do agree, if the line in the sand is "contender" they'd also need to liquidate the farm for Reynolds/Brubaker as Kim/Campusano wouldn't be enough. Maybe this is where Profar could fit in too. Regardless, I'm about taking steps forward. Was just a thought with Musgrove going down, the Marlins really can help them out on both their SP depth chart and helping sort out their over the top infield depth mess. There is a package here in some permutation if the Marlins can find a 100+ IP 6th SP for this year only. Which I think they can.

He had a 3.7 WAr because he is tremendous defensively. I get that you think WAR is WAR, but he is not an impactful offensive player. Sure, theoretically he will increase the overall war of the team, but he is not an impact bat whatsoever. Through 2 years he has a WRC+ of a below average hitter. He is a good player and im fine adding him for the price, dont get me wrong, but he doesnt move the needle because he is miguel rojas on steroids. He is not an impactful hitter, which is what they need. If it's paired with reynolds, sure, im all for it, but absent getting reynolds, they need an impact hitter for the middle of their lineup at SS, and Kim aint it.

[lou]

He had a 3.7 WAr because he is tremendous defensively. I get that you think WAR is WAR, but he is not an impactful offensive player. Sure, theoretically he will increase the overall war of the team, but he is not an impact bat whatsoever. Through 2 years he has a WRC+ of a below average hitter. He is a good player and im fine adding him for the price, dont get me wrong, but he doesnt move the needle because he is miguel rojas on steroids. He is not an impactful hitter, which is what they need. If it's paired with reynolds, sure, im all for it, but absent getting reynolds, they need an impact hitter for the middle of their lineup at SS, and Kim aint it.

Production is production. Saving 10 runs versus hitting 10 solo HR is the same thing. Kim would absolutely move the needle for this team, even if there is more to go. It's always been Reynolds + another upgrade, and some move like this certainly falls into the "other" upgrade territory getting guys with years of control. They'd need another SP for sure, but this goes back to what are they good at - pulling pitching out of their ass. Let's bet on what they are good with. In any event, hopefully something is coming.

[rmc523]

Production is production. Saving 10 runs versus hitting 10 solo HR is the same thing. Kim would absolutely move the needle for this team, even if there is more to go. It's always been Reynolds + another upgrade, and some move like this certainly falls into the "other" upgrade territory getting guys with years of control. They'd need another SP for sure, but this goes back to what are they good at - pulling pitching out of their ass. Let's bet on what they are good with. In any event, hopefully something is coming.

Yup, saving a run is going to help when we're already down 1-0 and can't score any runs at all.

I get your point, but our problem is offense.

[Nick]

Production is production. Saving 10 runs versus hitting 10 solo HR is the same thing. Kim would absolutely move the needle for this team, even if there is more to go. It's always been Reynolds + another upgrade, and some move like this certainly falls into the "other" upgrade territory getting guys with years of control. They'd need another SP for sure, but this goes back to what are they good at - pulling pitching out of their ass. Let's bet on what they are good with. In any event, hopefully something is coming.

I would disagree with this, you act like defensive metrics are 100% foolproof and they aren't. You see guys vary wildly from year to year when it comes to defensive metrics, which doesn't make sense. I'm not saying they are without merit, but 10 HRs is concrete undisputable, defensive metrics are not there yet.