2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Erick]

The 2nd hit given up by Eury not really a hit.

Segura struggling at his new position too.

[sports24/7]

I like the Jazz in CF experiment regardless, but if that’s what Arraez looks like at 2B, I wonder if they’ll make an adjustment at some point during Spring Training.

I was warming up to the idea because the metrics last year seem to indicate he’s average, but he actually looks quite bad. I would very much prefer him to play 1B/DH and put Segura back at 2B where he’s pretty good.

I wish Garrett Cooper wasn’t on this team and we could trade him for a guy who plays another position.

Yeah, the idea of putting so many of these guys in positions other than the one their best at is not ideal. If Amaya or Groshans can snag a starting spot at SS or 3B, that lets you put Segura back at 2B, and Arraez at 1B.Unless they surprisingly make a move for a SS, that's probably the best outcome.

[fish16]

Eury is gonna be really fucking good

[Lee Stone]

Eury is gonna be really fucking good

Wow. What level of praise would Perez have inspired if he actually pitched well? Fucking great or fucking awesome I imagine.

Cueto was tossing BP to the Cards.

Mikolas looked great.

[fish16]

Wow. What level of praise would Perez have inspired if he actually pitched well? Fucking great or fucking awesome I imagine.

Cueto was tossing BP to the Cards.

Mikolas looked great.

It’s almost as if I don’t make sweeping generalizations based on limited sample sizes like you and was just commenting on him in general. Also, he did pitch well. He’s 19 making his first spring appearance with bad defense behind him and dealing with a pitch clock element he’s never dealt with before.

I get all these years later you still have 0 ability to understand that age relative to competition matters, but it does

[fish16]

Burdick has looked good in his first few AB’s. He seems to have put on even more muscle.

I wonder if they get through spring with the healthy 6 rotation pieces if they carry 1 extra bat and 1 less bullpen arm and have both burdick and groshans make the big league roster with Garrett getting a lot of innings out of the bullpen

[Namaste]

The first Spring Training game of the season means nothing

[fish16]

anyone going to any of the WBC games at marlins park? They looked like an amazing atmosphere last time it was here.

[lou]

Yeah, the idea of putting so many of these guys in positions other than the one their best at is not ideal. If Amaya or Groshans can snag a starting spot at SS or 3B, that lets you put Segura back at 2B, and Arraez at 1B.Unless they surprisingly make a move for a SS, that's probably the best outcome.

..... but Arraez best position is 2B because his offense plays so over the top there it outweighs any defensive arguments. He is likely pretty OK at 2B as he has been pretty solid there since 2020 (2019 was rough). You only move him off at this point if Jazz is a complete failure in CF and he can't play SS. Big picture, Jazz at 2B/SS/CF (or 3B) likely all produce the same value for him offensively, so it's seeing how well he is defensively anywhere. Hopefully we don't get into a debate where Arraez has to move because Jazz is so bad everywhere else it makes more sense to keep Jazz at 2B and Arraez at 1B because Jazz can't cut it, but we'll see. I'd bet on the athlete here personally and trust the Marlins ability to turn him into a good enough CF.

Also, since we're lowering Arraez production moving him from 2B to 1B in this scenario, moving Segura doesn't change any defensive value (he's going to be fine anywhere), and Cooper isn't a total shlub, what you're asking for is Amaya or Groshans to be a 2+ WAR player instantly to push Cooper to the bench. I'm estimating Cooper to be a 1.5+ WAR guy here and the rest of the production the lost defensive value. I mean yes, that's a best case scenario for sure if they turned Bass/Pop/Rojas into a long term 2+ WAR starter, but I don't think this is realistic for now. If we want to ditch Cooper from the starting lineup..... it would be BERTI keeping up his 2022 pace (well over 3+ WAR over 600 PA). In that scenario I think you can make an argument Berti/Wendle/Segura/Arraez is better than Segura/Wendle/Arraez/Cooper, but who knows what Berti will do. I think a healthy Cooper is the better bet. And practically, Arraez should be starting 50+ games at 1B to give Cooper "2" off days a week with the Marlins "Buxtoning" his playing time, so we'll have that lineup effectively 1/3rd the time regardless. Presumably against right handers.

This is all going to work itself out via actual performance as the team is pretty versatile with Arraez, Segura, Wendle, Berti, Jazz, and I think think Sanchez is a sneaky OK enough CF defender versus RHP to be able to move around the field - plus they have the 13th bench spot up for grabs so that triggers what you mentioned, Groshans, Amaya, and others. Who knows, maybe Garret Hampson figures it out? Maybe Burdick becomes Luplow (career .842 OPS vs LHP)?

The problem just still remains as you mentioned at the end - where's the SS (or other significant bat upgrade)? Whatever positional arrangement of Berti vs Cooper starting or who the 13th man is isn't going to make/break this team. Not having Correa or at least Swanson on the team is the problem. All roads to Bruce.

[lou]

The first Spring Training game of the season means nothing

Yep. I saw a stat Cueto has like a 12 ERA his last 4 spring trainings. The guy is a pro and he's going to be fine. The only thing worse than SSS reactions is spring training reactions - remember that Nunez guy who hit 10 bombs that one year? I don't remember his name.

[Nick]

Yep. I saw a stat Cueto has like a 12 ERA his last 4 spring trainings. The guy is a pro and he's going to be fine. The only thing worse than SSS reactions is spring training reactions - remember that Nunez guy who hit 10 bombs that one year? I don't remember his name.

OMGNunez

[fish16]

it was abraham nunez, no?

[lou]

OMGNunez

yes that guy!

[fish16]

Yep. I saw a stat Cueto has like a 12 ERA his last 4 spring trainings. The guy is a pro and he's going to be fine. The only thing worse than SSS reactions is spring training reactions - remember that Nunez guy who hit 10 bombs that one year? I don't remember his name.

exactly. If there is anyone other than sandy to trust to be ready for the season, it's cueto. the guy has been a quality pitcher for what feels like 20 years, he will be ready. He also wasn't even hit all that hard other than the bomb to walker, who is going to be a great player as early as this year. He gave up 3 singles, 2 of which could have easily been outs with better defense, and an infield hit.

One thing i will say that seems obvious even this early is that the shift will make offenses much better this year. The field seems much bigger without the ridiculous shifts teams were playing. Might not make a big difference in extra base hits, but i think singles will sky rocket from what they have been the last few years. For teams with a lot of slap hitters and teams that play to contact, it will be a huge benefit. That's us. It also will hurt us from a pitching perspective, but i trust our pitchers and i think it will be a net positive for us.

The other thing is i think we will be stealing a ton of bags this year. I think berti has become a lot mroe valuable and i wouldnt be surprised at all to see him getting more playing time than anticipated. I think i saw that the difference is 4.5 inches with the bigger bags this year and while that might not seem like a lot, that makes a pretty big difference on those close plays. I could see Berti obviously leading the league in steals again, but also Jazz and Segura stealing a good amount of bases as well if they stay healthy. Segura isnt as fast as he used to be, but he has a career high of 44 steals and stole 13 last year, so i could see 20 this year. Jazz stole 12 in a third of a season essentially last year. I could see him going 30/30 over a full healthy year.

With how our lineup is constructed unless Soler and Garcia recreate their career years power wise, we will need to manufacture runs more, and the lack of a shift and the bigger bases can only help us to do so.

[lou]

Also I didn't love the lineup, but it is an improvement from last year. Putting Soler 2nd is interesting as they didn't do that.

CF Jazz
LF Soler
2B Arraez
1B Cooper
RF Garcia
3B Segura
SS Wendle
C Stallings
DH Encarnacion


I think they are going to have 3 main lineups this year (with and without Berti versus RHP and vs LHP, and then versus LHP).

I think I'd do this:

vs RHP no Berti. This one is pretty easy IMO. I'd call this the base lineup.

2B Arraez <- Best OBP potential
1B Cooper < Better OBP potential than Soler, breaks up lefties
CF Jazz <- Arguably best SLUG potential to knock in, he can still steal here
DH Soler
RF Garcia <- Next 3 interchangeable depending on matchups/breaking up rights with Sanchez
LF DLC/Sanchez
3B Segura
C Fortes <- Stallings below Wendle if he is starting
SS Wendle

vs RHP with Berti. This is the hard lineup to figure out as this is where you have to move everyone around

TBD Berti < - Let him fly
2B/1B Arraez < - Not worried on bunched lefties here
CF Jazz
DH Soler < - Just leave him as the cleanup hitter
TBD <- Cooper/Garcia/DLC/Sanchez/Segura < - Next 3 interchangeable depending on whose playing/matchups. Cooper and Segura have priority
TBD <- Cooper/Garcia/DLC/Sanchez/Segura
TBD <- Cooper/Garcia/DLC/Sanchez/Segura
C Fortes < - Stallings below Wendle if he is starting
SS Wendle

vs LHP
SS/3B Berti < - Still let him fly
2B Arraez
1B Cooper
DH Soler
SS/3B Segura
RF Garcia
CF Jazz < - I do not apologize. He can vault up if he hits them
LF DLC
Catcher


So

Berti 1 when he plays
Arraez always 1 and 2
Jazz 3 right handers and drops lefties
Soler always 4
Lots of mix/matching in the middle
Catchers always 8/9
Wendle always 8/9