2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

The Bryan Reynolds conundrum

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brya...lds-conundrum/

[lou]

Not really sure why Luzardo is guaranteed a rotation spot. Last season was the first time in his career where he wasn't a complete dumpster fire(including his 12 starts for the Marlins post trade in 2021 where he was beyond awful) and even then it was just when he came back from injury. He was still mediocre in April and May.

Luzardo was great final 7 in 2021.

He has a 2.7 WAR his last 135 innings over 25 starts. Since late August 2021, that's good for 60th best P WAR in baseball and the only guys with less innings ahead of him are two RP (Diaz, Clase).

Only Rogers has shown this kind of upside where he was better in 2021. The Marlins are right here, the top 4 is set and Cabrera/Garrett can be the 5/6. It'll work itself out.

[Todd]

I wouldn't say "clearly". Luzardo had 2 WAR, 3.32 ERA, and 10 k/9 in 18 starts. Garrett had 1.5 WAR, 3.58 ERA, and 9 K/9 I'm 17 starts.

Garrett's BABIP against was about 70 points higher and he BBd 2 fewer/9.

[Todd]

Luzardo was great final 7 in 2021.

He has a 2.7 WAR his last 135 innings over 25 starts. Since late August 2021, that's good for 60th best P WAR in baseball and the only guys with less innings ahead of him are two RP (Diaz, Clase).

Only Rogers has shown this kind of upside where he was better in 2021. The Marlins are right here, the top 4 is set and Cabrera/Garrett can be the 5/6. It'll work itself out.

What are you talking about? In Luzardo's final 6 starts of 2021 he had an 5.38 ERA and .786 OPS against. He was horrid.

[lou]

What are you talking about? In Luzardo's final 6 starts of 2021 he had an 5.38 ERA and .786 OPS against. He was horrid.

Luzardo's last 135.1 IP spanning end of 2021 and all of 2022:

25 Starts, 135.1 IP, 10.51 K/9, 3.59 ERA (3.33/3.44 FIP/xFIP), 2.7 WAR, 60th best in baseball during this calendar period of time. Basically he's awesome and this is a #2 SP on most of teams. Realize that's 135 innings and imagine that scale if he can throw more.

End of 2021

7 starts, 35 IP, 9.77 K/9, 4.37 ERA (3.94/4.37 FIP/xFIP), .5 WAR. This is a 2+ WAR pace and effectively a really solid 4th starter.


So yea, this is what I'm talking about. Horrid? I wish we had 13 Luzardos.

[lou]

The Bryan Reynolds conundrum

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brya...lds-conundrum/

It's interesting, I think he's being sold short here (just a little). Also those zip projections aren't accounting for 2023 which is *really* important in trading for him. That's an ultra prime age 28 season.

I'd give him 6/$110 (includes 2023, and a 7th year option) - cue the JAYSON WERTH aquisition here to self legitimize and get Reynolds 2023-26 prime and maybe the last two years are a little sloppy. He can hit though and we may not get such a steep decline his age 32/33 seasons. My fear with Reynolds was always him wanting 7/$140m or something like that. Maybe he could get there with a 7th year expensive option if he just holds entirely up.

Assuming he would take that and they can claw back Brubacker or Bednar (doesn't matter which) in that deal and only give up Rogers/Cabrera and say J. Sanchez off the MLB roster (+ Meyer, Watson/Eder/Fulton, Peguro/etc.), it's a no brainer. They'd be set once they get Wendle some help. Maybe Amaya/Hinojosa are god sends though.

[Todd]

End of 2021
6 starts, 29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 5.28 ERA(4.45 FIP). I like how you just arbitrarily throw that Aug 29th start in there. He was awful before that start and after that start. He was mediocre his first 6 starts of 2022.

All of his value has come from those post injury starts in 2022.

I am not opposed to him being in the rotation. But I think it's asinine to just guarantee a guy who has had exactly one 10ish game stretch in MLB where he wasn't beyond awful a spot.

[lou]

End of 2021
6 starts, 29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 5.28 ERA(4.45 FIP). I like how you just arbitrarily throw that Aug 29th start in there. He was awful before that start and after that start. He was mediocre his first 6 starts of 2022.

All of his value has come from those post injury starts in 2022.

I am not opposed to him being in the rotation. But I think it's asinine to just guarantee a guy who has had exactly one 10ish game stretch in MLB where he wasn't beyond awful a spot.

Arbitrary, like what you are doing? The guy had his turning point start and his last 135 innings have been awesome (which is not cherry picking, its just here is his last 135 innings). You want to pull 2021 out? Go for it. Let's talk about a 2.2 WAR in 2022 in just 100 innings then (which I believe is a better rate so like, he gets even better here). Which is not 10 starts BTW.

You're underselling him big time here. He's probably the 4th best player on the team let alone debatable for a rotation spot.

[Nick]

Bruce Sherman expects to be in the playoffs. Mentions this is the 2nd highest payroll in Marlins history.

Fuck Off.

[lou]

Bruce Sherman expects to be in the playoffs. Mentions this is the 2nd highest payroll in Marlins history.

Fuck Off.

Only note is payroll is behind opening day 2012 and 2017. By a lot. What he is trying to do here is say year-end 2012 payroll is lower because they traded guys mid-year to lower payroll (notably Hanley). Which is fun because they are going to trade off this team in July when they aren't a contender, so it's not going to continue to be 2nd.

So it's third and more gas lighting. But nice try Bruce.

[Nick]

Only note is payroll is behind opening day 2012 and 2017. By a lot. What he is trying to do here is say year-end 2012 payroll is lower because they traded guys mid-year to lower payroll (notably Hanley). Which is fun because they are going to trade off this team in July when they aren't a contender, so it's not going to continue to be 2nd.

So it's third and more gas lighting. But nice try Bruce.

The bigger point is, having the 2nd highest payroll in Marlins History is not an accomplishment. Our entire 30-year team history is predicated on either not spending money or spending money for a very short period then immediately tearing it down. This type of statement just conveys that he thinks the Marlins fanbase is stupid and will eat up whatever shit he tries to shovel in.

2nd highest payroll in organization history! Look at me! (Ignore the fact that if you averaged the Mets, Braves and Phillies Payrolls it's over 3 times ours)

No sense of organizational history, contempt for the fanbase, that's the current ownership in a nutshell.

[fish16]

I find it odd that Cabrera is competing for anything. Dude was fantastic in his 71 innings at the majors last year. I think I've made it clear how I'd like to see the staff handled this year. It'll never happen the way I want it, but very interested to see what they end up doing.

I would agree with you until I saw how fucking fat he looked the other day in a video the marlins posted where he was in a tank top. And someone else on twitter confirmed he gained 15 pounds over the offseason, and it clearly wasn’t muscle. How this can continue to happen to guys like him, sixto, Garcia, etc is beyond me. But he absolutely shouldn’t be guaranteed a rotation spot if he’s going to show up to a critical spring in that kind of shape

https://twitter.com/Marlins/status/1627346342233227264

[lou]

The bigger point is, having the 2nd highest payroll in Marlins History is not an accomplishment. Our entire 30-year team history is predicated on either not spending money or spending money for a very short period then immediately tearing it down. This type of statement just conveys that he thinks the Marlins fanbase is stupid and will eat up whatever shit he tries to shovel in.

2nd highest payroll in organization history! Look at me! (Ignore the fact that if you averaged the Mets, Braves and Phillies Payrolls it's over 3 times ours)

No sense of organizational history, contempt for the fanbase, that's the current ownership in a nutshell.

Exactly. Just for perspective 2017 was opening day $115m and year end $116m. 2012 was $101m and year end $89m after the sell off.

Payroll is going to be $91-92m this year assuming the last bench spot (Groshans or whoever) and last bullpen spot (Nance or Brazoban) are club controlled.


Personally, I'd have liked to see this team at a $115m opening day payroll. That's flat out adding Nimmo outright...... or they could have done something like trade the house (Rogers. J. Sanchez, + a lot of the farm) for Reynolds/Brubaker/Bednar (combined $10m), and then signed $3m Andrus, traded Cooper to get back another 4m and use that final $16m a year for like Josh Bell to upgrade 1B.

Imagine they did just that, this is roughly $115m and would merely tie the largest high in payroll, which still sucks.

Fortes, Stallings
J. Bell
Arraez
Wendle, Andrus
Segura, Berti
Reynolds, DLC
Jazz
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Brubaker, Garrett/Cabrera combo 5
Bednar, Barnes, Floro, Chargois
Puk, Scott, Okert


I don't know what Bruce is smoking with this playoff talk, but that last $25m to match the highest Marlins payroll goes VERY FAR even if it costs Rogers and 3-4 of the top 2-10 prospects in the system. I'd bet some vegas overs on that team. Currently, it's a hard under

[lou]

I would agree with you until I saw how fucking fat he looked the other day in a video the marlins posted where he was in a tank top. And someone else on twitter confirmed he gained 15 pounds over the offseason, and it clearly wasn’t muscle. How this can continue to happen to guys like him, sixto, Garcia, etc is beyond me. But he absolutely shouldn’t be guaranteed a rotation spot if he’s going to show up to a critical spring in that kind of shape

https://twitter.com/Marlins/status/1627346342233227264

They are all going to pitch, they have the innings to burn. I think it's what is best for Cabrera and it's an easy answer IMO.

2018 - 100.1 innings
2019 - 96.2 innings
2020 - 0 innings
2021 - 87.2 innings
2022 - 110.1 innings

What's best for him is throwing call it 130+ innings at the MLB level IMO. You don't want to push him too hard, and if they somehow make the playoffs, adding another 10-15 innings on that isn't going to be brutal and debilitating.

It's basic math here - 32 starts, 4 inning average. It gets you there. I don't think you let him throw 5-6 innings just to shut him down. They can manager this workload and if it works out, move him to a 5+ inning guy in 2024.


Then do Garrett

2018 - 0 Innings
2019 - 106.2 innings
2020 - 7.2 innings
2021 - 119.2 innings
2022 - 125 innings

So call him a 4+ inning starter and shoot for a little more, 140-150 IP. He has a tough pitch mix with not being completely changeup dependent so I don't think you push him more here. Give him another year before maybe turning into a 150-170 IP guy.



It will inspire confidence if they name Garrett and Cabrera the co-5th starter and do this, with the starter whoever has a better R/L matchup and force other teams to dictate. Maybe even use an opener to really mess with people with a L/R/L or R/L/R set up if someone wants to stack hitters and just blow out Scott to destroy some lefties with Cabrera coming 2nd inning, etc. '

Let's be smart.

[lou]

Ten breakout bats from Eno Sarris/Athletic (I consider Eno an upper tier writer) - https://theathletic.com/4192015/2023...breakout-bats/

TLDR - DLC, J. Sanchez, *and* Fortes. The first two hit the ball really really hard and Fortes has one of the fastest swing speeds in baseball which is suggestive of some real power/contact ability. What's fun is, Jazz and Sanchez are on that swing speed list and the other names are..... Julio, L. Robert, Stanton, Machado, Alvarez, Witt, Alonso...... and then some pedestrian guys like F. Reyes, T. Thompson, Cron, MJ Melendez, and Wisdom.


They couldn't have signed a SS or Nimmo and moved Jazz to SS?