2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

We're all in accord here. Puk really moves the needle for me to include that third "major" arm for Pittsburgh (versus Watson/Berry/Cappe), as well as a fourth lefty depth arm. Something like....

Rogers, Meyer, Eder, J.Sanchez, Nardi/Simpson/Reynolds, and a lottery ticket (Gerardo? Peguero?) for Reynolds and either Brubaker or Bednar in a significant 6-2 move. Either arm works for Miami IMO as Garrett can be in the rotation or not, and maybe even Puk could be stretched out. Brubaker seems more likely since he makes some money and Bednar has more control. He's a good 5 at minimum.

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett
Bednar/Brubaker
Barnes, Floro, Chargois, Nance/whoever (DL - Enright)
Puk, Scott, Okert

Longterm Eury, Fulton, Sixto, and Bender, along with various RP, show up next year with no pitching free agents for 2024, and only Cueto, Barnes, Floro, and Scott are free agents for 2025. Enormous depth still. Impress us Kim because Bruce has failed us already.

Id do that in a heartbeat.

Lineup looks like Arraez, Segura, Jazz, Reynolds, Soler, Cooper, Garcia, Wendle, Stallings/Fortes.
Bench of Berti, Backup C, DLC, Burdick?/Groshans/Hampson.

SP still great, bullpen borderline elite if Bednar is added. Reinforcements year end with Eury and sixto at some point. That's a playoff team.

Then next year the rotation can be Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett or whoever is left, with sixto still out there. If sixto can ever get back to form and get healthy, that's is an absolutely filthy rotation. It is even without him, but with him that's deep and absurdly cheap. It would be the perfect culmination of what we've been saying the plan should be for several years now since it became apparent the lineup could not be fixed internally. Develop all the pitching surplus, deal the spare parts for lineup fixes, and win.

Compared to last year, that's probably another 2.5 WAR from Jazz staying healthy, 4 WAR from Arraez, 4-5 from Reynolds, and 2.5 from Segura, plus bouncebacks hopefully for Soler and Garcia, and maybe stallings isnt the worst hitting catcher ive ever seen outside of jeff mathis again.

[Namaste]

Updated PECOTA
Marlins at 80 wins

https://twitter.com/fishstripes/stat...ascrW1pzdGDC8g

[fish16]

Updated PECOTA
Marlins at 80 wins

https://twitter.com/fishstripes/stat...ascrW1pzdGDC8g

thats about where i had them. must have read my post here and scrambled the fighters to update most likely. I think that's too high on the phillies. I dont think their rotation is special and their bullpen will be shaky. Great lineup though with turner added but i think harper will be out half the year or so. I think adding reynolds pushes us into their tier. Not ahead of them but in the ballpark.

[lou]

Also - F. Montas is REALLY hurt. Not to take advantage of other's sorrows, but the Yankees absolutely need a SP and thank you San Diego for signing Wacha yesterday as that would be too obvious for them. Go get Peraza today. And still do that Reynolds deal (maybe swap in Watson for Eder, etc.) and really knock out the offense with a top 4 longterm of Jazz, Reynolds, Arraez, and Peraza. You can figure out the pitching as you'd still have bodies even if Peraza costs you Luzardo, and innings eaters like Dylan Bundy are still available.

[fish16]

Frankie Montas is now best case scenario to return midway through the season. They could use another SP. Not sure if we have what it takes to get both Peraza and Reynolds, but if we can get Brubaker as well, it maybe opens the door for Peraza for Braxton Garrett and maybe another piece. Rogers + Prospects for Reynolds and Brubaker. Leaves us a little thin this year for SP, but still have a pretty effective rotation of Sandy Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Brubaker, next year add Sixto, Eury, + whoever is left after reynolds deal.

This year it becomes:

C- Fortes/Stallings
1b- Coop
2b- Arraez
SS- Peraza
3b- Segura
Lf-Reynolds,
CF- Jazz
Rf- Garcia
DH-Soler'
Bench- DLC, Wendle, Berti, _____
SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Brubaker, maybe eventually Sixto or Eury late in the year. Could also sign another innings eater 5th starter type.
RP- Puk, Barnes, Floro, Scott, Okert, Chargois, eventually enright once his health issues are taken care of,

Next year you can roll out Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, and then Sixto or whoever is left out of the SP prospects or sign another Cueto type, or pick up his option if he performs well this year.

[lou]

Peraza for Braxton Garrett and maybe another piece.

Let's not be homers, unless that other piece is Meyer. They love him. Luzardo makes the most sense for everyone.

[fish16]

Let's not be homers, unless that other piece is Meyer. They love him. Luzardo makes the most sense for everyone.

They have Volpe and have an immediate need in a year they are trying to win. Garrett had a 3.58 ERA and 3.50 XFIP last year in his first real time in the big league rotation. It was limited innings, but he's a former top 7 pick with years till even arbitration. They would absolutely need to add more, but a couple lower level guys with promise like a Mack or Miller is equal value. MLB has him at 52 and BA at 62. He's a good prospect, but they have volpe and have torres this year. Volpe is the guy long term if he can stick at SS. MLB has volpe at 5, BA at 14. It would certainly be a win now move, but if they buy garrett's year last year, it's not crazy to think they fill montas with garrett and a prospect or 2 to add to the lower levels. Or you add Wendle as the 2nd useful piece this year in a year they are trying to contend for the title. All 3 of their top 100 guys are bats, so there isnt a ton of top end pitching talent they can rely on this year. Severino is injury prone, and montas is now out for the year with shoulder surgery. They have German, and i dont know their full upper minors prospect situation, but they have good high end pitching talent but almost 0 depth. Top 30 list hasnt come out but last year their top 8 guys were all position players.

It won't happen regardless, seems a little late for that, but you never know. We had interest in Peraza at the deadline. Id add Berry to that to get Peraza. It's essentially a depth arm who realistically wont be in our rotation long term (though he could be helpful this year) and a late top 100 prospect for a mid top 100 prospect.

[lou]

They have Volpe and have an immediate need in a year they are trying to win. Garrett had a 3.58 ERA and 3.50 XFIP last year in his first real time in the big league rotation. It was limited innings, but he's a former top 7 pick with years till even arbitration. They would absolutely need to add more, but a couple lower level guys with promise like a Mack or Miller is equal value. MLB has him at 52 and BA at 62. He's a good prospect, but they have volpe and have torres this year. Volpe is the guy long term if he can stick at SS. MLB has volpe at 5, BA at 14. It would certainly be a win now move, but if they buy garrett's year last year, it's not crazy to think they fill montas with garrett and a prospect or 2 to add to the lower levels. Or you add Wendle as the 2nd useful piece this year in a year they are trying to contend for the title. All 3 of their top 100 guys are bats, so there isnt a ton of top end pitching talent they can rely on this year. Severino is injury prone, and montas is now out for the year with shoulder surgery. They have German, and i dont know their full upper minors prospect situation, but they have good high end pitching talent but almost 0 depth. Top 30 list hasnt come out but last year their top 8 guys were all position players.

It won't happen regardless, seems a little late for that, but you never know. We had interest in Peraza at the deadline. Id add Berry to that to get Peraza. It's essentially a depth arm who realistically wont be in our rotation long term (though he could be helpful this year) and a late top 100 prospect for a mid top 100 prospect.

Volpe is going to be a 2B longterm and Sweeney a 3B, so they need Peraza longterm. That's the thing. You won't sell any person in the Yankees organization Peraza is in the same stratosphere to Garrett as a centerpiece. They love him. Yankees are also win now and Garret is more of a projectable guy. They can do better. I think it's Luzardo/Rogers if you are going to pry him away. Not even Cabrera. They have a deep farm so they'll have other P trade options so it'll be going big or no thanks. I'd do it. I'll bet on this FO finding pitching faster than a longterm SS the entire industry loves.

[lou]

Posted without commentary - https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-breakou...andidates-2023

[lou]

They have Volpe and have an immediate need in a year they are trying to win. Garrett had a 3.58 ERA and 3.50 XFIP last year in his first real time in the big league rotation. It was limited innings, but he's a former top 7 pick with years till even arbitration. They would absolutely need to add more, but a couple lower level guys with promise like a Mack or Miller is equal value. MLB has him at 52 and BA at 62. He's a good prospect, but they have volpe and have torres this year. Volpe is the guy long term if he can stick at SS. MLB has volpe at 5, BA at 14. It would certainly be a win now move, but if they buy garrett's year last year, it's not crazy to think they fill montas with garrett and a prospect or 2 to add to the lower levels. Or you add Wendle as the 2nd useful piece this year in a year they are trying to contend for the title. All 3 of their top 100 guys are bats, so there isnt a ton of top end pitching talent they can rely on this year. Severino is injury prone, and montas is now out for the year with shoulder surgery. They have German, and i dont know their full upper minors prospect situation, but they have good high end pitching talent but almost 0 depth. Top 30 list hasnt come out but last year their top 8 guys were all position players.

It won't happen regardless, seems a little late for that, but you never know. We had interest in Peraza at the deadline. Id add Berry to that to get Peraza. It's essentially a depth arm who realistically wont be in our rotation long term (though he could be helpful this year) and a late top 100 prospect for a mid top 100 prospect.

I thought about your Garret pitch. Maybe this could work.

Yankees are right at luxury threshold (which is $273, they are at $271 right now. Rounding to whole numbers). Hicks makes $10.5m bucks in 2023 (and then $9.5, $9.5, $1 buyout). Hicks is still playing above average CF defense and….. hits lefties .743 for his career. He dipped last year, but was very good against them in 2021 (.800+). He’s 33. This isn’t about him obviously though.

If the Marlins acquire say…. Peraza, Hicks, and take back $15m dollars to deflect Hicks after this year (call Hicks $10.5-$2.5-$2.5-$0 for the Marlins moving forward), this bails the Yankees out of being up against the luxury threshold. If the Marlins include Garrett which solves SP issues on paper, they then have money for PROFAR.

So maybe this works:

Garrett, Amaya, J. Sanchez
(Amaya replaces Peraza in their system, Marlins would have to DFA Sanchez and the Yankees do need a lefty, this opens money for Profar which is important)

Peraza, Hicks, $15m spread 2024-2026, and some throw-ins (Lockridge? RP prospects?).

The Yankees would do this and be under luxury threshold:

Trevino, Higashioka
Rizzo, DJ
Gleyber (DJ, Profar)
IKF, Cabrera
Donaldson (DJ, Cabrera)
Profar, Sanchez
Bader (Judge, Sanchez)
Judge, Stanton

+Garrett and Amaya, and Volpe coming mid-season as an injury replacement as obviously someone gets hurt for them

And then the Marlins can roll this out

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (Arraez)
Arraez, Berti
Peraza, Wendle
Segura (Wendle)
DLC
Jazz, Hicks
Garcia
Soler

You lost Garrett, $15m effectively and an extra bench player they can replace IMO. A small price to pay for Peraza IMO. I think you'd tell Puk get stretched out here and he's the 5/6 with Cabrera.


Not sure the Yankees would do this, but you're giving them a ton of service years with Garrett/Amaya/Sanchez plus ability to sign Profar and effectively all they care about here is losing Peraza. Maybe they'd want Rogers instead and they upgrade the "throw-in," but this would work on paper. I'd go all in trying to get Peraza. Hicks is the key.

[lou]

Also longterm IL opened up so Meyer and Bender can go on it now.

So they have 38 spots right now (maybe Enright also???? I'm not sure what kind of recovery time he is looking at) and can add two more guys without losing anybody.

If they were waiting to sign somebody (Gurriel, Profar, Andrus, Reliever, etc.), this minor obstacle has been cleared. Because god forbid you DFA Brazoban.

[lou]

Wacha deal with SD is super fun. I can see this being a blueprint in the future for these one year "prove it" type of guys, who also are better than getting a 1 year deal. Basically, the next "Soler" kind of deal might be something like this versus getting an opt-out every year. SD's front office is more creative than the Marlins for sure.

1/$7.5m
-Club Option - 2/$32m
-Player Option 3/$18.5m w/ IP bumps

So Wacha is:

1/$7.5m
4/$26 w/ innings pitched bumps, or
3/$39.5


I bet Profar signs something like this.

[fish16]

I think the more likely scenario now that i look into how high the yankees are on peraza based off his performance to end last year, is gleyber torres. He doesnt really fit in with the low K, higher OBP after his year last year, but as a free agent to be and the yankees desire to get away from the luxury tax, i think he'd be fairly affordable in a trade. IDK if i would do braxton garrett though, and im not sure how much sense it would make for the yankees to deal him for lower level prospects, but he would give the lineup a little power that they could really use.

[lou]

I think the more likely scenario now that i look into how high the yankees are on peraza based off his performance to end last year, is gleyber torres. He doesnt really fit in with the low K, higher OBP after his year last year, but as a free agent to be and the yankees desire to get away from the luxury tax, i think he'd be fairly affordable in a trade. IDK if i would do braxton garrett though, and im not sure how much sense it would make for the yankees to deal him for lower level prospects, but he would give the lineup a little power that they could really use.

They love Peraza (and Volpe). Love. But they also love avoiding luxury tax, hence Hicks is an idea.


Gleyber is pretty good and still 26. He has a ton of upside still. He also smashes lefties (.850 OPS career). If we would be OK with something like this, it could work with him:

Fortes/Stallings - 162 starts
Arraez - 92, Cooper 70 < --- Exactly what I don't want them to do with Arraez, but it is what it is
Gleyber - 132, Berti 30
Wendle - 112, Berti 50 < --- I'm concerned
Segura - 132, Berti 30
DLC - 82, Arraez 50, Sanchez 30 < --- Exactly what I don't want them to do with Arraez, but it is what it is
Jazz - 142, DLC 20
Garcia - 132, Sanchez 30
Soler - 142, Cooper 20

Total starts on paper:

Jazz 142
Soler 142
Arraez 142
Gleyber 132
Garcia 132
Segura 132
---
Wendle 112
Berti 110
DLC 102
Cooper 90
Stallings 81
Fortes 81
Sanchez 60

And if any of Berti/DLC/Cooper/Sanchez really take off, they can really eat into each others projections there as they could move all sorts of guys around to find the PA.


I'm not sure this is the best idea (I know you aren't advocating Gleyber), but it is an idea with the Yankees. I do think Garrett would make a lot of sense as they get an arm and could sign Profar for them still. He helps 2B/LF for them for sure. Gleyber is no slouch and team defense wouldn't be bad here. I also think the Marlins could ask for a pretty significant second piece from them as Garret'ts 6 years of control is no joke. Sweeney maybe and take lots of shots at future 3B? Biggest issue is backup SS and some inefficiency of not playing Arraez at his best position. The Gleyber upgrade over effectively Groshans is worth that probably. Cooper gets A LOT of off days to really stay healthy here for once.

I'd also STILL sign Andrus here budget permitting (as Gleyber adds a bunch of money), kick Sanchez off the team opening up 60 starts and shave 20 starts each off Wendle/Berti to make Andrus a 100+ game starter, and Wendle and Berti 90+ game starters. They can easily do that moving Berti around. That team is deep AF with injury redundancy adding Gleyber/Andrus and ditching Sanchez/Groshans/Garrett. Hell maybe it's Garrett/J. Sanchez (and they can sign Profar) for Gleyber/Peireira. That is not outrageous for anyone IMO.

[Namaste]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-may-n...mpires-can-be/

Fascinating article on umpires and balls and strikes. A must read for everyone who thinks Robo balls and strikes have to happen or baseball will be ruined.