2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Todd]

Velez was 24 years old in A ball.

[sports24/7]

Why my favorite team is destined to be terrible again this season:

Cueto is almost certainly a downgrade from Pablo, but the starters aren't likely to be a problem. Unfortunately, Miami starters aren't likely to pitch a whole lot more than half the innings, and the bullpen is for shit.

Soler and Garcia are still Marlins.

The overall defense will likely be worse than last season.

Interesting that you leave out easily the biggest reason the Marlins would be terrible this year. They still have a subpar lineup. The defense will probably be worse, and the bullpen is a concern. I'm not overly worried about the SP. Cueto probably is a downgrade from Lopez, unless Pablo gets hurt again, which is a distinct possibility; but their young starters should get better, and they have guys that could make an impact in the system. That's kind of a weird gripe, though, considering you wanted them to trade Sandy for prospects.

Soler and Garcia were always going to still be Marlins. The only way you were getting rid of either one would be for similar players on equally bad-looking contracts. One thing I do feel like people are kind of overlooking is what happens if those two (and you could throw Stallings in there, too, as he hd one of his worst years at the plate) actually have good years. While I certainly wouldn't count on it, even improving to their average seasons would be pretty beneficial, and if you could get production like they've had in their best seasons, now you're actually looking at a solid lineup assuming Jazz and Arraez continue to trend upward. Again, I don't think this is likely, and the front office counting on this is to happen is bad strategy, but I feel like most of us have written them off as terrible players, when it's entirely possible that these guys could be productive hitters.

[lou]

Prior to being traded, Velez threw 100 innings of .86 WHIP in High-A and AA for the Marlins in 2021. What Marlin fan wouldn't be excited about that? He was throwing like Chris Paddack, who was my biggest lamentation ever! Hell, I'm still excited about Luis Palacios and his strike-throwing ability.

More to ridicule: I have not given up on Nunez as the SS by season's end. Brilliant run prevention at the position.

See Todd's comment and evaluators don't think his stuff plays up as he climbs levels. This is the important thing missing in some of your MiLB takes IMO. The basis of how guys get the stats is important. A control freak just dominating A ball hitters without elite stuff is going to get annihilated as he moves up, but may be fully capable if being an ace in Jupiter. Meanwhile, guys with no control with elite stuff in A ball may have worse stats, but are much better prospects as their stuff could get out MLB hitters if they harness it with mediocre control. It's why guys like Holloway get chances and long looks and guys like Velez and B. Meyer disappear. That's the Luis Palacious comp also - he throws 88 right? What good is control when you don't have a plus secondary pitch and a well below average fastball? Once you get past AA, you're toast absent unusual circumstances. Who knows what he becomes, best case scenario is a poor man's Yusmiero Petit or hell, Richard Bleier.

Nunez is a real prospect though. Off the charts defensive and running ability, and some offensive hope with the BB rate. Who knows what he becomes either, but if he can slap a .625 OPS he might be Nicky Lopez real quick.

[fish16]

Don’t forget ben Meyer and Humberto Mejia

[Lee Stone]

Don’t forget ben Meyer and Humberto Mejia

Mejia with 45 K and just 3 W in 2022/23 Dominican Winter League!

[Nick]

Mejia with 45 K and just 3 W in 2022/23 Dominican Winter League!

He only had 3 Wins in Winter League? Unfortunate.

[Erick]

Prior to being traded, Velez threw 100 innings of .86 WHIP in High-A and AA for the Marlins in 2021. What Marlin fan wouldn't be excited about that? He was throwing like Chris Paddack, who was my biggest lamentation ever! Hell, I'm still excited about Luis Palacios and his strike-throwing ability.

More to ridicule: I have not given up on Nunez as the SS by season's end. Brilliant run prevention at the position.

Velez is going to be a stud.

Better numbers than Sandy Alcantara, who you weren’t very high on, at that level.

[emkayseven]

Keith Law posted his top 20 Marlins prospects on the Athletic. I normally wouldn’t post something paywalled but it’s friend of the site Keith Law.

There is a ton of upside in this system, but most of it is in guys with huge volatility — they could be stars, they could never get out of Double A. That should come through in the writeups below, as I see lots of upside and at least four guys I could have named as sleepers. They’ve changed quite a bit of staff this offseason, so it’ll also be worth seeing if the new player development folks can get more out of the talent in the system.
The ranking

1. Eury Perez, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 10)


Age (on July 1): 20 | 6-8 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019

Perez won’t even turn 20 until April, but the Marlins’ top prospect — and the top pitching prospect in all of baseball — is certainly all grown up, as he’s 6-8, pushing 6-9, and has already conquered Double A. Perez already sits in the upper 90s, reaching 99 mph in the Futures Game last summer, coming from a low slot that mitigates some of the benefit he might get from his height but that makes it nearly impossible for right-handed batters to see the ball out of his hand. He pairs it with a plus changeup that has hard tumbling action and looks just like the fastball out of his hand, leaving him with no platoon split at all in 2022, while he also has a mid-80s slider that has a short, mostly vertical break, enough to keep right-handers from sitting on the heater. He’s a strike-thrower who walked two or fewer batters in 14 of his first 15 starts last year, although his command is probably a full grade below his control right now. Pitchers this tall do not have a great track record of health, and Perez himself has missed time in the last two years, getting shut down for about five weeks in August and September last year due to “arm fatigue,” so there is real risk here around his durability. If he just stays healthy, though, he has No. 1 starter upside. There is no one in the minors with this kind of stuff, deception, and ability to throw strikes.
2. Dax Fulton, LHP (No. 78)


Age: 21 | 6-7 | 225 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 40 in 2020

Fulton had Tommy John surgery during his senior year in high school, taking him from a likely first-round selection to an over-slot bonus in the second round from the Marlins. He’s a huge kid, 6-7 and listed at 225 pounds, who starts on the first base side of the rubber and can show both a plus slider and plus changeup. The Marlins’ minor-league pitching coordinator Scott Aldred worked with Fulton to get a more comfortable arm slot and clean up what had been a pretty rough delivery, so while it’s not completely clean now, it’s far more fluid than it used to be and gives him a better chance to throw strikes and command his fastball. The heater is his worst pitch, as his velocity has fluctuated some post-surgery and hitters square the pitch up more than you’d like, which might limit his ceiling. He’s shown plus velocity in pro ball and might still get there consistently, so even without a lot of life or movement it could be enough to let him get to the two secondaries, with that slider, which is sharp and late with biting tilt and a ton of horizontal movement, a real lefty-killer. I like him as a back-end starter as he is, with clear upside as he continues to add strength and get further away from the surgery.
3. Jake Eder, LHP (No. 97)


Age: 24 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 104 in 2020

Eder was cruising toward a spot in the middle of the top 100 in 2021 when his elbow shrieked; Tommy John surgery that July took him out for all of 2022. He returned in the Marlins’ early camp this offseason to show his previous stuff, working 94-97 mph with an out pitch in his slider, that had him striking out 34 percent of batters he faced in Double A before he blew out. Eder has a great build for a durable starter — yes, I see the irony there — with a delivery he repeats well that should point to future 55 or better command and control, although before the injury he was around average in both. His changeup had really come on since he signed and looked like it had a chance to be an average pitch, although his delivery and slider will probably always give him some platoon split because he dominates lefties — they hit .095/.183/.191 against him in 2021, with a 46 percent strikeout rate in 71 plate appearances. We’ll have to see how his first full year back on the mound goes, but if he can stay healthy for a full-ish season, he’s got No. 2 starter upside and actually might not be that far away from contributing.
4. Max Meyer, RHP


Age: 24 | 6-0 | 196 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 3 in 2020

Meyer reached the majors last year after a strong start in Triple A, but his elbow gave out and we probably won’t see him until 2023 instructs or 2024. He’s got a wipeout slider that was his out pitch in the minors, but his fastball declines in quality too quickly within games, so by the second time through the order hitters were whiffing on the pitch about half as often, and his changeup is still a distant third pitch for him. Scouts have always questioned him as a six-foot right-hander with this velocity, but I think it’s more a question of holding his stuff and the fastball quality than his height. He could still start, but there’s reliever risk here, even if we ignore the Tommy John surgery.
5. Joe Mack, C


Age: 20 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 31 in 2021

Mack missed most of 2022 with a hamstring injury he couldn’t shake, but stood out in the AFL with big power to all fields, a great approach for a 19-year-old against older pitching, and solid receiving in a league where everyone throws 112 with zero command. He’s got a 55 arm and should improve against the running game with time. We don’t have a ton of data here given how much time he missed, but the looks have been very promising. I look forward to his return in 2023.
6. Yiddi Cappe, SS


Age: 20 | 6-3 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021

The Marlins signed Cappe, a Cuban defector, for $3.5 million in January 2021, waiting two years to sign him due to the pandemic and his choice to wait until a later signing cycle, and his U.S. debut last year showed more promise than his 2021 pro debut in the DSL. He’s a shortstop now who has to work on technique and footwork, and might just end up at third base, but the bat is the main ingredient here. He can handle a fastball, manipulate the barrel to use the whole field, and has some sneaky pop already that could end up 55 or better as he fills out. He wasn’t great after a midsummer promotion to Low A but still struck out just 13 percent of the time. It’s deep projection but I could see a strong regular at third or an above-average one at short.
7. Ian Lewis, 2B


Age: 20 | 5-10 | 177 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019

Lewis signed out of the Bahamas way back in 2019 for $950,000 and had a solid full-season debut in 2022 when he wasn’t on the injured list, hitting .265/.347/.368 with 16 steals in 17 attempts in 51 games. He’s a solid second baseman who could end up plus there and can handle third, with a plus arm that might make moving to the hot corner the better choice. He’s super-athletic with bat speed and an idea at the plate, he just needs to get stronger and stay on the field for more reps.
8. Jordan Groshans, 3B


Age: 23 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 12 in 2018

The Marlins picked up Groshans, the Blue Jays’ first-round pick in 2018, in a July trade that sent two relievers to Toronto, and Groshans just went off after the deal, hitting .301/.399/.416 in a month in Jacksonville before a call-up to the majors. He may have just been pressing less, or maybe it was a reversal of fortune, but he does show good feel for the barrel, making good contact but not elite, so the power some folks projected on him in high school still hasn’t come. He can play third or second, or fill in at shortstop, with a chance to be a regular if he starts hitting the ball harder.
9. Kahlil Watson, 2B


Age: 20 | 5-9 | 178 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 16 in 2021

Watson was the 16th overall pick in 2021, which was a surprise based on the scouting reports and rumors that spring that had him going in the top ten. He got off to a miserable start in 2022, hitting .221/.274/.372 before a stint on the injured list, but was much better after he returned to Low A in late July, hitting .258/.349/.452 and cutting his strikeout rate from 39.3 percent to 26.4 percent. Watson has excellent bat speed and showed he could make adjustments in games and across series, and actually performed better with the platoon disadvantage as he’d stay back to try to pick up sliders from lefties, while against righties he’d get more pull-heavy and go for homers. I don’t think he’s a shortstop, and while the Marlins may try him at all three infield spots, I’d just stick him at second and let him focus on hitting.
10. Jacob Berry, 3B


Age: 22 | 6-0 | 212 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 6 in 2022

Berry was the No. 6 overall pick in 2022 out of LSU, where he put up strong numbers but didn’t have elite exit velocities. More problematic is his lack of a position, as he was bad everywhere the Tigers tried to play him, and the Marlins may have to move him to first or DH and hope his bat will carry him.


11. Sixto Sanchez, RHP


Age: 24 | 6-0 | 234 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2015

Sanchez hasn’t pitched in a game since 2020, undergoing two shoulder surgeries in the last two years, the last one an arthroscopic procedure in October. He’s supposed to be throwing without restrictions again and ready to go for spring training, although I imagine his workload will be tightly managed. Pre-injury, he would be an easy 96-100 mph with a plus changeup, while his breaking stuff had always lagged behind the other two pitches.
12. Victor Mesa Jr., OF


Age: 21 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
International signing in 2018

Mesa can go get it at all three positions in the outfield and has good zone awareness at the plate, but needs to get to harder contact to be more than an extra outfielder. He’s a pretty high-energy player with great feel for the game, just lacking that plus tool he needs to be any sort of regular.
13. Xavier Edwards, 2B


Age: 23 | 5-10 | 175 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 38 in 2018

Edwards was a top 50-ish prospect when younger, but he has added no strength at all and is caught in a no-man’s land (no-prospect’s land?) where he has no path to improvement other than hitting the ball harder. He can play second or third, can fill in at shortstop, and is at least fast enough for centerfield, while at the plate he makes contact with some patience but no damage — he had 25 extra-base hits in 93 games in Triple A last year, which was actually up from 16 in 81 games the year before, and some of that is speed-driven. He’s still just 23, so it’s not impossible for him to figure it out, but he’s basically a marginally better Nick Madrigal right now. The Marlins acquired him in a four-player deal with Tampa this winter that sent prospect Santiago Suarez to the Rays.
14. Jose Gerardo, OF


Age: 18 | 6-1 | 179 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022

Gerardo has some big thump in his bat, hitting .284/.417/.551 in the DSL as a 17-year-old along with a 30 percent strikeout rate. It’s real power, though, and he does work the count, with the beginnings of an approach rather than no idea at all.
15. Jacob Miller, RHP


Age: 19 | 6-2 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 46 in 2022

Miller was the Marlins’ second-round pick in 2022, a high school right-hander who had been committed to Louisville. He’s been up to 98 mph with good riding life up top and a sharp downward-breaking curveball, while his changeup has promise despite little usage. His delivery needs a lot of work, though, as it’s rough and hard to repeat, which may limit his future command.
16. Jacob Amaya, SS


Age: 24 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 340 in 2017

Amaya was the return for Miguel Rojasin a trade this offseason and is a high-probability utility infielder who probably lacks any ceiling beyond that, maybe profiling as a regular shortstop on a bad team. He showed more power than usual in Double A last year but it didn’t carry over to Triple A, and he’s probably still just a high-contact, low-power guy who can play all three infield spots.
17. Yoffry Solano, SS


Age: 18 | 5-10 | 155 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022

The Marlins signed Solano for $750,000 last January, and the switch-hitting shortstop managed 30 games in the DSL around some injuries, hitting .320/.393/.398 in 117 PA. He has good feel to hit with contact over power, although he makes good enough quality contact to hope for more juice down the road.
18. Ronald Hernandez, C


Age: 19 | 6-1 | 155 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021

Hernandez is a switch-hitting Venezuelan catcher who’s a lock to stay behind the plate, with good hands, athleticism, and a strong arm, while his bat will take some time to catch up as he’s still very lean, making contact (19.9 percent strikeout rate in the FCL) with no impact. He could be a solid backup.
19. Cody Morissette, 2B


Age: 23 | 6-0 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 52 in 2021

The Marlins’ second-rounder in 2021 showed more power last year but at the cost of too much batting average, hitting 13 homers in High A, more than he hit in two-plus years at Boston College. His year ended early with a foot injury but he should be good to go for spring training.
20. Antony Peguero, OF


Age: 18 | 6-0 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022

Peguero played in the DSL last summer at age 17 and showed good feel to hit and the potential to stay in centerfield, perhaps offering less upside than Gerardo but more present skill.

---

2023 impact


I don’t know if Eury Perez sees the majors this year, but he pitched so well in Double A in 2022 that I wouldn’t rule it out. Groshans is probably the next man up if any of their infielders gets hurt. Of course, Sixto could return to the major-league staff if he’s fully healthy, but I imagine he’ll spend some time in Triple A first.
The fallen


I’m not giving up on Nasim Nunez completely, as he is an elite defender at shortstop and stole 70 bases at an 81 percent clip last year, but the 21-year-old slugged .317 between High A and Double A, and that’s just not going to cut it even with all the things the 46th pick in the 2019 draft can do.
Sleeper


This system might have more sleepers than anyone — Cappe, Mack, Lewis, and Watson could all show up on the top 100 next year. Lewis gets the biggest raves from scouts, though, with his combination of athleticism and feel to hit.

[I](Top photo of Eury P

[Lee Stone]

[QUOTE=emkayseven;n581793]Keith Law posted his top 20 Marlins prospects on the Athletic. I normally wouldn’t post something paywalled but it’s friend of the site Keith Law.

There is a ton of upside in this system, but most of it is in guys with huge volatility — they could be stars, they could never get out of Double A. That should come through in the writeups below, as I see lots of upside and at least four guys I could have named as sleepers. They’ve changed quite a bit of staff this offseason, so it’ll also be worth seeing if the new player development folks can get more out of the talent in the system.
The ranking

1. Eury Perez, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 10)


Age (on July 1): 20 | 6-8 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019

P

Hope you post the rest of the 20.

[fish16]

another one with fulton ahead of eder. Also, he seems to be a lot higher on joe mack than others. I really like joe mack too. If he can develop into a nice hitting C of the future, that is another guy that can go a long way towards helping this lineup be a quality one. If Berry and him can develop, those are 2 huge pieces moving forward.

Maybe his power will develop as he gets older, but his stats remind me a lot of john baker when he was here those few years. Not necessarily a huge plus defensively or huge power numbers, but really solid plate discipline from the left side as a catcher. Big year for him upcoming.'

The thing that stands out to me other than the clear strength of upper minors starting pitching is the really solid lower minors bat potential. That's why this year in the minors is going to be super interesting to watch, but a lot of potential for this list to feature a lot of really nice bats moving forward at the end of this year. Cappe, Lewis, Watson, Mack. I wouldnt be surprised to see any of those 4 in top 100 lists next year. Nor would i be surprised if they fell of the map.

[fish16]

Also, i completely agree with him on Nasim Nunez. The tools are there with the ridiculous speed and glove and the clearly good plate discipline which allows him to draw walks, but his current level of power is just not sustainable as a starter at the major league level. He could be an interesting bench guy regardless as a guy with elite defense whose speed could be a real threat as a pinch runner late in games similar to billy hamilton, but unless he can develop even below average power, i dont see him as a long term starter in this era of baseball. With that being said, i dont see how you can justify Morissette being on the list but not Nunez.

[emkayseven]

[QUOTE=Lee Stone;n581794]

Keith Law posted his top 20 Marlins prospects on the Athletic. I normally wouldn’t post something paywalled but it’s friend of the site Keith Law.



Hope you post the rest of the 20.

The e with an accent broke the pasting for some reason but I pretty quickly edited the post, it’s all there

[emkayseven]

Also, i completely agree with him on Nasim Nunez. The tools are there with the ridiculous speed and glove and the clearly good plate discipline which allows him to draw walks, but his current level of power is just not sustainable as a starter at the major league level. He could be an interesting bench guy regardless as a guy with elite defense whose speed could be a real threat as a pinch runner late in games similar to billy hamilton, but unless he can develop even below average power, i dont see him as a long term starter in this era of baseball. With that being said, i dont see how you can justify Morissette being on the list but not Nunez.

Ozzie Smith’s career slugging percentage was .328

[fish16]

Ozzie Smith’s career slugging percentage was .328

nunez's was .317 in A+ and AA. Ozzie smith was also revered as the best defensive SS of all time, if not one of the best. Nunez has elite defense, but doesnt seem to be the best ever obviously. smith was also able to maintain a high .600's and low .700s OPS for the majority of his career. Nunez so far for his career in the minors, not the majors, is .654. If he can get around a .700 OPS in the majors it will work, but if he's going to put up an Adeiny Hechavarria type OPS, it will not play as a starter.

[Nick]

Also, i completely agree with him on Nasim Nunez. The tools are there with the ridiculous speed and glove and the clearly good plate discipline which allows him to draw walks, but his current level of power is just not sustainable as a starter at the major league level. He could be an interesting bench guy regardless as a guy with elite defense whose speed could be a real threat as a pinch runner late in games similar to billy hamilton, but unless he can develop even below average power, i dont see him as a long term starter in this era of baseball. With that being said, i dont see how you can justify Morissette being on the list but not Nunez.

If there is one thing that should be able to improve for a skinny 22-year old it's his power. My bigger concern with Nunez is the K's he needs to cut down on the Ks or the BA could plummet at the majors.

That being said a SS that is above average defensively (and Nunez might be better than just above average) gives you a .340 OBP, .315 SLG and goes 50/60 in steals in a year. I think that plays as a starter, I really do, and I think it's realistic for a guy like Nunez, with just a little increase in power and like I said, cutting down some on the Ks.