2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Mish corrected an earlier tweet and now says that the Red Sox are sending approximately $5 million to the Marlins. So the money is basically a wash for Barnes.

Oh that is massive at $5m. So Barnes is roughly:

1/$5.6 or
2/$12(ish). The option triggers at different levels of performance so splitting the difference roughly

I'm going to assume this is $3m on 2023 and $2m on 2024 (as that would match what they would owe Bleier on his buyout - .25m, etc.), so effectively payroll is likely going up here roughly $2m in 2023, and nothing in 2024 unless Barnes is great and they just pick up the option for the $8.5-9m or whatever it triggers at.

This is a good move to turn their 3rd/4th lefty into their 1st/2nd righty bullpen arm for just absorbing approximately $2m (over two seasons) and losing Bleier. Red Sox saved themselves $2m+ and got Bleier and his cheaper 2024 option if they pick it up.

Nice speculative move here. Low risk, medium reward for sure.

[lou]

*A different Boston reporter is sayin $5.5m is being swapped, so I think ultimately this is the Marlins absorbing roughly $1.5m over 2 seasons of new money for Barnes.

Barnes (age 33 season)
Adding $1.5m
Much more expensive 2024 option

Bleier (age 36 season)
Saving $1.5m
Cheaper 2024 option


Just saying, big picture this seems like a smart move. Barnes had great FB velocity last year. Garret Richard 2016 (.8 WAR in 34 innings) and Charlie Morton 2017 (a 3.1 WAR pitcher) are his two top two profile comps. I saw some Boston fans talking about how he is a "sticky substance" guy but that seems like a lazy insult to me of a guy they are annoyed with for whatever reason. Someone else also mentioned this here, but just mentioning again his post all start last year (22.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 20Ks) seems like a good omen. All in all, nothing to not like here versus keeping Bleier.


But what I came here for is the sky is falling with local TV - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/diamond-...-revenue-boat/. This has been mentioned before and some of you know much more about this than me, but this seems to me on the surface to impact the Marlins more than maybe everyone. So great. We can't have nice things? Would love someone to unpack this if possible.

[sports24/7]

Oh that is massive at $5m. So Barnes is roughly:

1/$5.6 or
2/$12(ish). The option triggers at different levels of performance so splitting the difference roughly

I'm going to assume this is $3m on 2023 and $2m on 2024 (as that would match what they would owe Bleier on his buyout - .25m, etc.), so effectively payroll is likely going up here roughly $2m in 2023, and nothing in 2024 unless Barnes is great and they just pick up the option for the $8.5-9m or whatever it triggers at.

This is a good move to turn their 3rd/4th lefty into their 1st/2nd righty bullpen arm for just absorbing approximately $2m (over two seasons) and losing Bleier. Red Sox saved themselves $2m+ and got Bleier and his cheaper 2024 option if they pick it up.

Nice speculative move here. Low risk, medium reward for sure.

The only way this is really a bad move is if somehow he's ok in 2023, they pick up his option, and he's bad in 2024, and that money prevents the Marlins from spending elsewhere. And if they're pinching pennies like that, then does any of it really matter? The Marlins traded a mediocre-at-best RP for a guy who, at points of his career, has been a pretty good high leverage reliever. I've said it before, but this position is so volatile, that if you're not giving up much of value, this is a position where you try and add at the beginning of the year, hope it works out, and then either have a valuable piece to a contending team, or trade him at the deadline for some value. The Marlins aren't going to go out and spend big at this position (nor should they), so these are the types of moves they should be making in the bullpen. Ideally they can get Alex Reyes at a reasonable deal, and then I think you feel ok about the bullpen going into the year.

[rmc523]

*A different Boston reporter is sayin $5.5m is being swapped, so I think ultimately this is the Marlins absorbing roughly $1.5m over 2 seasons of new money for Barnes.

Barnes (age 33 season)
Adding $1.5m
Much more expensive 2024 option

Bleier (age 36 season)
Saving $1.5m
Cheaper 2024 option


Just saying, big picture this seems like a smart move. Barnes had great FB velocity last year. Garret Richard 2016 (.8 WAR in 34 innings) and Charlie Morton 2017 (a 3.1 WAR pitcher) are his two top two profile comps. I saw some Boston fans talking about how he is a "sticky substance" guy but that seems like a lazy insult to me of a guy they are annoyed with for whatever reason. Someone else also mentioned this here, but just mentioning again his post all start last year (22.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 20Ks) seems like a good omen. All in all, nothing to not like here versus keeping Bleier.


But what I came here for is the sky is falling with local TV - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/diamond-...-revenue-boat/. This has been mentioned before and some of you know much more about this than me, but this seems to me on the surface to impact the Marlins more than maybe everyone. So great. We can't have nice things? Would love someone to unpack this if possible.

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what happens with all of that. Hopefully the Marlins aren't affected. Otherwise it'll be another excuse to push back spending.

[lou]

The only way this is really a bad move is if somehow he's ok in 2023, they pick up his option, and he's bad in 2024, and that money prevents the Marlins from spending elsewhere. And if they're pinching pennies like that, then does any of it really matter? The Marlins traded a mediocre-at-best RP for a guy who, at points of his career, has been a pretty good high leverage reliever. I've said it before, but this position is so volatile, that if you're not giving up much of value, this is a position where you try and add at the beginning of the year, hope it works out, and then either have a valuable piece to a contending team, or trade him at the deadline for some value. The Marlins aren't going to go out and spend big at this position (nor should they), so these are the types of moves they should be making in the bullpen. Ideally they can get Alex Reyes at a reasonable deal, and then I think you feel ok about the bullpen going into the year.

Nope to the bold. Doesn't matter.


Reyes on a MiLB makes a ton of sense. There is the Sixto wild card also, and Eder likely comes in as a RP if he is fully recovered this year.

August 1st could very readily be:

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Rogers, Cabrera
Reyes, Sixto, Enright ---- > Barnes, Floro, Chargois, Nance
Garrett, Eder ----- > Scott, Okert

They could be bullpen sellers here even as a contender which is truly a fascinating thing to say. Everyone on that list above is controlled for 2024 or beyond (assuming they do a service time analysis with Reyes, see below). Of course, they do need to sign Reyes still and Sixto/Eder both need to be healthy, but mentioning this all to suggest, Reyes is in fact a really really smart signing. A best case scenario is a ton of arm depth here.

As for Reyes, if he is in the minor leagues until roughly early June, he will have under 5.172 days of service time at the MLB level meaning he is controlled for next year. TBH, I think that may be the negotiating ploy for Reyes' agent here. He wants a a guarantee at free agency versus a team getting a final arbitration season. It would be easy to keep him in the minors until mid-June for a club, so they may be shopping for someone to guarantee they will put him on the MLB DL so he gets service time or otherwise agree to just call him up before X days into the season or agree to not extend arbitration. They should call that bluff here as the guy hasn't pitched in a year, but we'll see.

[fish16]

According to a twitter reply last night from Mish, they are still interested in Reyes, but his decision time might be coming soon and the acquisition of Barnes might affect that.

[fish16]

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what happens with all of that. Hopefully the Marlins aren't affected. Otherwise it'll be another excuse to push back spending.

almost every team will be affected by that for the most part. It will be interesting to see what the next step for each team's tv rights will be. Lot of different options. Another network can buy the rights, or there could be a streaming model where you either pay for each game individually like you would for an on demand movie, or perhaps a season long package for some sort of set price.

[fish16]

with the money that's changing hands, at least as far as this year is concerned, we swapped Bleier for Barnes and took on little to no money. Honestly makes sense for both sides. Sox apparently needed a lefty and they im sure were set to get rid of barnes and eat the whole contract regardless so each team got what we were looking for and we ended up with no real money added this year. Plus if he shows out and has a bounce back year, we either have a nice closing option for relatively cheap next year, or we can pick up the option and then trade him if a young guy is ready to become a closer. Or you have a great set up option/back up plan for that guy. Really smart move by NG. I still want 1 more piece to add to the pen, but good work adding some quality arms to the pen from last year.

[rmc523]

almost every team will be affected by that for the most part. It will be interesting to see what the next step for each team's tv rights will be. Lot of different options. Another network can buy the rights, or there could be a streaming model where you either pay for each game individually like you would for an on demand movie, or perhaps a season long package for some sort of set price.

Paying per game sounds horrible lol.

[fish16]

Paying per game sounds horrible lol.

im assuming they will both be options. Some will just want to buy individual games as a casual fan and a lot will just want to get the whole season. If that is the road this ends up going down.

[rmc523]

im assuming they will both be options. Some will just want to buy individual games as a casual fan and a lot will just want to get the whole season. If that is the road this ends up going down.

I would agree that MLB somehow needs to implement a better way of modernizing their broadcast rights. It's archaic to not be able to stream from wherever.

[Todd]

I actually wouldn't mind Austin Hays. His OBP isn't particularly good, but he would likely be a 15 to 25 HR guy with good defense in LF. A nice 7 hole guy.

[lou]

Fangraphs approves of Barnes swap - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-mak...iever-edition/

[fish16]

I actually wouldn't mind Austin Hays. His OBP isn't particularly good, but he would likely be a 15 to 25 HR guy with good defense in LF. A nice 7 hole guy.

DLC platooned with either Sanchez or Bleday would put up similar stats with more upside. No thanks to hays. Im still somewhat high on Sanchez as a lefty platoon guy and Bleday is still obviously too early to make a decision on. DLC i think is fairly mediocre and his stats are inflated due to like a 3 week span in september that was meaningless, but the marlins are high on him for whatever reason. Just role those guys out there if the alternative is Hays. If we're getting a LF, it needs to be a significant upgrade like Reynolds if/when he actually becomes available.

[lou]

DLC platooned with either Sanchez or Bleday would put up similar stats with more upside. No thanks to hays. Im still somewhat high on Sanchez as a lefty platoon guy and Bleday is still obviously too early to make a decision on. DLC i think is fairly mediocre and his stats are inflated due to like a 3 week span in september that was meaningless, but the marlins are high on him for whatever reason. Just role those guys out there if the alternative is Hays. If we're getting a LF, it needs to be a significant upgrade like Reynolds if/when he actually becomes available.

I'm with you totally here.

But for the bold - DLC had a mid season swing change in the minors. It's a potentially big development. It was BABIP infused post split for sure, but DLC is not the same player as pre-all star break 2022. He's a huge unknown, but the peripherals are off the charts. I don't think the organization is wrong to publicly say they expect 500 PA this year or to be high on him. He's very interesting going from one of the worst players in baseball they had to play just because everyone was hurt to a reasonable breakout candidate with this new hitting profile. I would take the bet DLC/Sanchez/Bleday don't embarrass themselves as the collective LF/4th OF, even if there is not an above average guy emerging here.

Also is there where we point out DLC and Sanchez are both better on paper than their picks/IFA signings - VVM, Scott, Misner, Bleday, Burdick, and Jerar