2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Agree. The offense only works if Garcia and Soler are way better than they showed last year. It's not a terrible bet that both guys bounce back. It's good to see both of them working out at the ballpark a ton, so we will see. I'd also like to see Amaya (Groshans or Edwards would work too) win the SS job in spring training.

Agreed. right now, barring some sort of unforeseen star breakout from a young player like Sanchez or Bleday, the only way we even compete for a wild card spot is perfect health for jazz and sandy and a bunch of other key players as well as bounce backs for Soler and Garcia. Obviously those bouncebacks are not super unheard of, especially for those 2, but that's a lot that needs to go right just to compete for a playoff spot in an expanded playoff field. If we add Reynolds, i think we are easy wild card contenders while being able to sustain a couple of injuries (obviously not to Sandy or anything super long for Jazz or Reynolds). I think with Reynolds, our ceiling goes to 90-93 wins in an ideal scenario with a base hovering around .500 as long as we dont have cataclysmic injury situations.

They are missing that last 1 piece, and they have the pieces to get it without impacting the long term rotation that will start as soon as 2024. To me, right now, you do whatever you can do outside of Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, and hopefully Meyer to go get that last bat. That includes Rogers, Sixto if he has any value, Eder, Fulton, and if need be realistically im fine with Meyer, as well as literally any other prospect they have. With the rotation we have lined up starting next year (and really outside of Eury, this year), idc what it takes to get that last piece, they need to do it. That rotation combined with Jazz, Arraez, and _________ (hopefully reynolds), that's a legit team, with a dirt cheap and amazing rotaiton.

[Nick]

that's really surprising that a marlins player would be the cover but awesome.

Especially one that only played in 60 games last year.

[Namaste]

I think it would be dumb to sell low on Sixto. Maybe I’m too optimistic but I think he’s coming back sooner than people think.

[fish16]

I think it would be dumb to sell low on Sixto. Maybe I’m too optimistic but I think he’s coming back sooner than people think.

completely agree. he likely has 0 value right now on the market, unfortunately. He missed 2 full years. It's not like he's coming off a year where he missed a few months. He missed 2 entire seasons. You would get nothing for him until he establishes his health. I still have incredibly high hopes for him. He was really fucking impressive. If he can get back to where he was, that's an enormous piece we were completely writing off. I hope they dont give up on him. At this point, just keep him around and see if he regains his stuff. Makes no sense to discard him for nothing.

[fish16]

not that i take any stock in the projection systems, but every single one seems to have almost literally the exact same projections for sixto on the fangraphs page. every one has him out of the bullpen for between 37-57 innings with each one projecting and era between 3.24 and 3.57. One has his projected FIP as 3.13, the other 3 are all weirdly between 3.37 and 3.40. I hope he still can start because he was efficient with his pitches and seemed able to go deep into games and starters are much more valuable than relievers, but if he is healthy and back to what he was, he'd be a pretty devastating closer.

But to give an idea of how long it's been since he pitched- here are some names that played his last major league game pitched- Dickerson, Magneuris Sierra, Lewis Brinson, Joyce, Wallach, Alfaro, James Hoyt, Brad Boxburger, Yimi Garcia, Ryne Stanek, and Nick Vincent.

[fish16]

Back to Barnes- maybe it's just chance, but he's never put up good numbers in Boston and has always been really good on the road. For his career, in 224 innings at home, he has a 4.45 ERA. On the road, its 3.65 in 207 innings. Weirdly, his K/bb numbers home/road are better at home though. At home its 298/90 K/BB, on the road its 258/110 K/B ratio. So who the fuck knows what to take from that info, but Boston isnt exactly pitchers heaven, plus the atmosphere is just a tad bit different compared to our home games. Maybe less pressure will allow him to flourish here.

[lou]

Agreed. right now, barring some sort of unforeseen star breakout from a young player like Sanchez or Bleday, the only way we even compete for a wild card spot is perfect health for jazz and sandy and a bunch of other key players as well as bounce backs for Soler and Garcia. Obviously those bouncebacks are not super unheard of, especially for those 2, but that's a lot that needs to go right just to compete for a playoff spot in an expanded playoff field. If we add Reynolds, i think we are easy wild card contenders while being able to sustain a couple of injuries (obviously not to Sandy or anything super long for Jazz or Reynolds). I think with Reynolds, our ceiling goes to 90-93 wins in an ideal scenario with a base hovering around .500 as long as we dont have cataclysmic injury situations.

They are missing that last 1 piece, and they have the pieces to get it without impacting the long term rotation that will start as soon as 2024. To me, right now, you do whatever you can do outside of Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, and hopefully Meyer to go get that last bat. That includes Rogers, Sixto if he has any value, Eder, Fulton, and if need be realistically im fine with Meyer, as well as literally any other prospect they have. With the rotation we have lined up starting next year (and really outside of Eury, this year), idc what it takes to get that last piece, they need to do it. That rotation combined with Jazz, Arraez, and _________ (hopefully reynolds), that's a legit team, with a dirt cheap and amazing rotaiton.

There is always the trade deadline remember. Yes they need help April-June and all wins count in the correct column, but if they can't get "Reynolds or better" there is something to be said about filling out the team to get you to the all star break. I feel that's where this is headed.

Payroll is about $95m right now. How much more would they spend? Guys like Profar/Wacha/Rosario would push this to $102-104m range quickly as a floor. Reynolds is actually cheaper so he'd just barely be $100m. They might be able to get Chafin and backload some year 2/buyouts to creatively fit him under $100m.... and same thing can be said about Elvis Andrus who makes a ton of sense for 100+ games at SS (all lefties, half righties) and let Wendle/Berti peel off games from basically Cooper with Arraez moving over 50+ games. Andrus was really really good last year (3.5 WAR) if he'd accept this 450 PA role. Frankly, that is perfect for him to keep him fresh. He may want more playing time though. If they signed Andrus and Chafin and scaled to $110m, that would be really really interesting to me both on a team construction dynamic as well as they would be spending a decent amount (begs the question of why no Correa, but the team would be top to bottom deeper versus a star). Those two guys had a 4.4 WAR last year and getting half of that would be incredible TBH if we're talking 450 PA and 65 innings.

I'd try and trade for Rosario/Peraza or any other SS that has 3+ WAR immediate potential, and fall back on Andrus. Even if that's a two year deal as Segura/Wendle-Andrus/Wendle-Arraez/Berti in 2023, and Segura/Groshans-Andrus/Amaya-Arraez in 2024 seems like a good cascading depth chart (+ Edwards in AAA). With bonus points for another high leverage reliever (Chafin, Reyes, or both), and double bonus points if they do dip into the trade market and can radically upgrade Cooper (Casas, etc.) or DLC/Sanchez (Reynolds, etc.).


And holy shit with the bold, Reynolds gets them to 85-87 win land and a hope and a prayer your 1 run games get you over the Phillies and Brewers/Cards as last wild card. Pump the breaks. Absent literally everyone turning into Diet Sandy, this team has no shot at 90+ wins.

[rmc523]

Agreed. right now, barring some sort of unforeseen star breakout from a young player like Sanchez or Bleday, the only way we even compete for a wild card spot is perfect health for jazz and sandy and a bunch of other key players as well as bounce backs for Soler and Garcia. Obviously those bouncebacks are not super unheard of, especially for those 2, but that's a lot that needs to go right just to compete for a playoff spot in an expanded playoff field. If we add Reynolds, i think we are easy wild card contenders while being able to sustain a couple of injuries (obviously not to Sandy or anything super long for Jazz or Reynolds). I think with Reynolds, our ceiling goes to 90-93 wins in an ideal scenario with a base hovering around .500 as long as we dont have cataclysmic injury situations.

They are missing that last 1 piece, and they have the pieces to get it without impacting the long term rotation that will start as soon as 2024. To me, right now, you do whatever you can do outside of Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, and hopefully Meyer to go get that last bat. That includes Rogers, Sixto if he has any value, Eder, Fulton, and if need be realistically im fine with Meyer, as well as literally any other prospect they have. With the rotation we have lined up starting next year (and really outside of Eury, this year), idc what it takes to get that last piece, they need to do it. That rotation combined with Jazz, Arraez, and _________ (hopefully reynolds), that's a legit team, with a dirt cheap and amazing rotaiton.

Just makes you wish they could've just signed one of the big SS names for nothing but money and retain what's left in the system.

[rmc523]

completely agree. he likely has 0 value right now on the market, unfortunately. He missed 2 full years. It's not like he's coming off a year where he missed a few months. He missed 2 entire seasons. You would get nothing for him until he establishes his health. I still have incredibly high hopes for him. He was really fucking impressive. If he can get back to where he was, that's an enormous piece we were completely writing off. I hope they dont give up on him. At this point, just keep him around and see if he regains his stuff. Makes no sense to discard him for nothing.

At this point, I guess you could keep him and hope. But I am certainly not counting on him for anything.

The argument of him as a reliever I think is to limit his overall workload, and then he could slot back in the rotation next year if he's healthy.

[rmc523]

There is always the trade deadline remember. Yes they need help April-June and all wins count in the correct column, but if they can't get "Reynolds or better" there is something to be said about filling out the team to get you to the all star break. I feel that's where this is headed.

Payroll is about $95m right now. How much more would they spend? Guys like Profar/Wacha/Rosario would push this to $102-104m range quickly as a floor. Reynolds is actually cheaper so he'd just barely be $100m. They might be able to get Chafin and backload some year 2/buyouts to creatively fit him under $100m.... and same thing can be said about Elvis Andrus who makes a ton of sense for 100+ games at SS (all lefties, half righties) and let Wendle/Berti peel off games from basically Cooper with Arraez moving over 50+ games. Andrus was really really good last year (3.5 WAR) if he'd accept this 450 PA role. Frankly, that is perfect for him to keep him fresh. He may want more playing time though. If they signed Andrus and Chafin and scaled to $110m, that would be really really interesting to me both on a team construction dynamic as well as they would be spending a decent amount (begs the question of why no Correa, but the team would be top to bottom deeper versus a star). Those two guys had a 4.4 WAR last year and getting half of that would be incredible TBH if we're talking 450 PA and 65 innings.

I'd try and trade for Rosario/Peraza or any other SS that has 3+ WAR immediate potential, and fall back on Andrus. Even if that's a two year deal as Segura/Wendle-Andrus/Wendle-Arraez/Berti in 2023, and Segura/Groshans-Andrus/Amaya-Arraez in 2024 seems like a good cascading depth chart (+ Edwards in AAA). With bonus points for another high leverage reliever (Chafin, Reyes, or both), and double bonus points if they do dip into the trade market and can radically upgrade Cooper (Casas, etc.) or DLC/Sanchez (Reynolds, etc.).


And holy shit with the bold, Reynolds gets them to 85-87 win land and a hope and a prayer your 1 run games get you over the Phillies and Brewers/Cards as last wild card. Pump the breaks. Absent literally everyone turning into Diet Sandy, this team has no shot at 90+ wins.

The only thing about the trade deadline is that you have to make it there within striking distance, if you're not in a spot already.

We typically fall out of it in May lol.

[fish16]

There is always the trade deadline remember. Yes they need help April-June and all wins count in the correct column, but if they can't get "Reynolds or better" there is something to be said about filling out the team to get you to the all star break. I feel that's where this is headed.

Payroll is about $95m right now. How much more would they spend? Guys like Profar/Wacha/Rosario would push this to $102-104m range quickly as a floor. Reynolds is actually cheaper so he'd just barely be $100m. They might be able to get Chafin and backload some year 2/buyouts to creatively fit him under $100m.... and same thing can be said about Elvis Andrus who makes a ton of sense for 100+ games at SS (all lefties, half righties) and let Wendle/Berti peel off games from basically Cooper with Arraez moving over 50+ games. Andrus was really really good last year (3.5 WAR) if he'd accept this 450 PA role. Frankly, that is perfect for him to keep him fresh. He may want more playing time though. If they signed Andrus and Chafin and scaled to $110m, that would be really really interesting to me both on a team construction dynamic as well as they would be spending a decent amount (begs the question of why no Correa, but the team would be top to bottom deeper versus a star). Those two guys had a 4.4 WAR last year and getting half of that would be incredible TBH if we're talking 450 PA and 65 innings.

I'd try and trade for Rosario/Peraza or any other SS that has 3+ WAR immediate potential, and fall back on Andrus. Even if that's a two year deal as Segura/Wendle-Andrus/Wendle-Arraez/Berti in 2023, and Segura/Groshans-Andrus/Amaya-Arraez in 2024 seems like a good cascading depth chart (+ Edwards in AAA). With bonus points for another high leverage reliever (Chafin, Reyes, or both), and double bonus points if they do dip into the trade market and can radically upgrade Cooper (Casas, etc.) or DLC/Sanchez (Reynolds, etc.).


And holy shit with the bold, Reynolds gets them to 85-87 win land and a hope and a prayer your 1 run games get you over the Phillies and Brewers/Cards as last wild card. Pump the breaks. Absent literally everyone turning into Diet Sandy, this team has no shot at 90+ wins.

the 90+ wins with Reynolds would be on the extreme end of the bell curve, not an expectation. That's the absolute ceiling with limited thealth issues and bounce backs for Soler and Garcia. With Reynolds added, plus Arraez and Segura along with bounce backs from Soler and Garcia and health from Sandy and the rest of the young guys in the rotation, that's not unheard of. Plus better luck with the 1 run games with more legitimate back-end options this year. You are correct though, with Reynolds it would be 85 wins or so as an expectation. To be clear, again, i was saying the absolute ceiling, not the expectation.

Also, it's funny how the conversation on Andrus has changed over the years. I wanted him a few years ago and you didnt, now you want him and i dont. I honestly think wendle is fine unless you can get a legitimately impactful and cost controlled long term option before opening day. Peraza id be good with, and i dont think the price would be crazy. For Wendle though, If he goes back to any of his 3 of the 4 years prior to last year, he's a really decent SS . To me, i think we need a LF. I like Sanchez and Bleday, but they should be put in a position where if they break through and succeed it's a bonus, not an expectation. Wendle is fine enough to me, i want a major upgrade in LF for this year. I think Wendle can be good enough this year, and then at the end of the year we look and see where the SS prospects in the system are. Maybe by August Watson figured out his character issues and shows out and you have a long term SS not far from the bigs. It's not the most likely scenario, but we have a good number of decent SS options long term that i think we can figure the position out internally this year potentially. We have nothing in the OF outside of guys whose potential has come down like Sanchez, Bleday, and Burdick. I like all 3 potentially as maybe platoon guys, but i dont think it's likely any of them become the all around OF we have been hoping. Especially Sanchez and Burdick, though i think they would make a really good platoon eventually.

[lou]

Just makes you wish they could've just signed one of the big SS names for nothing but money and retain what's left in the system.

*Yes*

[lou]

the 90+ wins with Reynolds would be on the extreme end of the bell curve, not an expectation. That's the absolute ceiling with limited thealth issues and bounce backs for Soler and Garcia. With Reynolds added, plus Arraez and Segura along with bounce backs from Soler and Garcia and health from Sandy and the rest of the young guys in the rotation, that's not unheard of. Plus better luck with the 1 run games with more legitimate back-end options this year. You are correct though, with Reynolds it would be 85 wins or so as an expectation. To be clear, again, i was saying the absolute ceiling, not the expectation.

Also, it's funny how the conversation on Andrus has changed over the years. I wanted him a few years ago and you didnt, now you want him and i dont. I honestly think wendle is fine unless you can get a legitimately impactful and cost controlled long term option before opening day. Peraza id be good with, and i dont think the price would be crazy. For Wendle though, If he goes back to any of his 3 of the 4 years prior to last year, he's a really decent SS . To me, i think we need a LF. I like Sanchez and Bleday, but they should be put in a position where if they break through and succeed it's a bonus, not an expectation. Wendle is fine enough to me, i want a major upgrade in LF for this year. I think Wendle can be good enough this year, and then at the end of the year we look and see where the SS prospects in the system are. Maybe by August Watson figured out his character issues and shows out and you have a long term SS not far from the bigs. It's not the most likely scenario, but we have a good number of decent SS options long term that i think we can figure the position out internally this year potentially. We have nothing in the OF outside of guys whose potential has come down like Sanchez, Bleday, and Burdick. I like all 3 potentially as maybe platoon guys, but i dont think it's likely any of them become the all around OF we have been hoping. Especially Sanchez and Burdick, though i think they would make a really good platoon eventually.

Well they had Andrus already, his name was Rojas. But Rojas is gone.

Wendle is a real liability on left handers. Rojas was a perfect platoon partner for him. I'd have done that trade still for Amaya as take the service time, but if we are taking the longterm view they want to try Amaya, Nasim, Cappe, and Watson (in that order) to find the internal SS, Andrus does get you there to try those guys 24-25-26-27 respectively. Andrus fits a role now so the next 5 years of SS could be Andrus/Wendle, Andrus/Amaya, Amaya/Nunez, then Cappe, then Watson. Someone has gotta stick here right, or they could all fail like CF did.

They also love DLC. His swing change might be a real interesting development. DLC/Sanchez can really hit the ball hard and Bleday is a swing path fix to being borderline elite with the walk rate and power potential. They should hire Jose Bautista/Daniel Murphy or their coaches to exclusively work with Bleday is what I'm saying. I do think it's a good bet to try them all out this year. It's make or break for all of them. Burdick too.

We'll see what they do. They need some more but I like the Barnes/Bleier swap and let's hope this is a Bass type move.

[fauowls44]

Mish corrected an earlier tweet and now says that the Red Sox are sending approximately $5 million to the Marlins. So the money is basically a wash for Barnes.

[fish16]

Mish corrected an earlier tweet and now says that the Red Sox are sending approximately $5 million to the Marlins. So the money is basically a wash for Barnes.

That’s what I thought it would be earlier. 1 mill never made a ton of sense given that Barnes was dfa