2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I think you're severely overrating DLC and our internal options and underrating how fucking good conforto was when he was healthy, albeit that was a few years ago. If his medicals check out and you can get him on a 1-2 year deal, that's a home run signing for a few years. The guy put up 15 WAR over 4 years, and 1 of those years was the 60 game 2020 season.

I just want to be clear here about DLC.

1 - The Marlins themselves say he is a 500+ PA player. So we have to believe them when they say things even if we disagree.

2 - Analytics love him - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/its-ne...2023-sleepers/ and https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. It's the new swing basically.

3 - He does have a 1.7 WAR in 574 PA for his career, https://www.fangraphs.com/players/br...ts?position=OF . I do understand this is effectively 400 terrible PA and 175 BABIP infused insanity, and that CF time is driving this number down as it could be higher in a corner, but the overall career line averaged out for him. We all yell at Lee about regression to the mean and sample sizes, and quite frankly, DLC regressed to a mean and may have taken a step forward with the new swing. See # 2 above.


TBH, I do not know what to expect, but we can safely pencil in 120+ starts here. At minimum, he has at least earned April and May. So I do think he is in the plans FWIW.

I would *love* an OF of this

RHP

Conforto
A real CF
DLC/Garcia

LHP

DLC
A real CF
Garcia

But the Conforto thing goes back to.... if they have limited money/trade assets, is Conforto that much of an upgrade over Sanchez/Bleday versus doing something in CF, upgrading Groshans (3B/1B backup), upgrading Cooper (1B starter), upgrading Rojas or Wendle (predominant SS starter), or upgrading either Catcher (strong side platoon). At best, getting someone like Conforto is like the 6th thing they can (as Jazz/Garcia/Soler are entrenched in the other spots and you may in fact bet on DLC/Sanchez/Bleday over all other positions as sad as that is, etc.)

[lou]

Say they sign conforto and cueto and blow the doors off the pirates somehow for reynolds for a ton of non major league prospects even though it seems like he's not actually available (Say Meyer, Eder, Watson, Salas/Cappe, etc).

C- Fortes/Stallings
1b- Coop
2b- Jazz
SS- Unfortunately Rojas
3b-Wendle
LF-Conforto
CF- Reynolds
Rf- Garcia
DH-Soler
Bench-DLC, Sanchez, Berti, Stallings
SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Cueto, Garrett, eventually Eury, Meyer, Eder, Fulton (obviously dependent on what it would take for Reynolds)


that's a really solid team. I'd do anything in our power to sign conforto and trade for reynolds without touching Luzardo, Cabrera, Sandy and Eury. Those 3 to me should be untouchable unless it's for a proven star.

It's a $$110m team if you sign Reyes to the bullpen as you mentioned.

Do they spend that?

I can get behind this team quickly BTW, and I am assuming Pablo would bring another major asset on top of this since you didn't list him and Reynolds was moved for prospects.

Cough Rosario and dump Rojas/Scott making it salary neutral and recoup prospects on top cough.

[Todd]

They want to make a splash?

Trade for and extend Devers. Make a big move for Reynolds. Make a big move for Tatis who is apparently on the outs in San Diego. Send whatever Baltimore and Texas want for Lowe and Hays. Who cares if it destroys the farm system? You have a scary good young lineup that you can work with for years and either buy out further years or trade to replenish the farm.

[fish16]

I just want to be clear here about DLC.

1 - The Marlins themselves say he is a 500+ PA player. So we have to believe them when they say things even if we disagree.

2 - Analytics love him - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/its-ne...2023-sleepers/ and https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. It's the new swing basically.

3 - He does have a 1.7 WAR in 574 PA for his career, https://www.fangraphs.com/players/br...ts?position=OF . I do understand this is effectively 400 terrible PA and 175 BABIP infused insanity, and that CF time is driving this number down as it could be higher in a corner, but the overall career line averaged out for him. We all yell at Lee about regression to the mean and sample sizes, and quite frankly, DLC regressed to a mean and may have taken a step forward with the new swing. See # 2 above.


TBH, I do not know what to expect, but we can safely pencil in 120+ starts here. At minimum, he has at least earned April and May. So I do think he is in the plans FWIW.

I would *love* an OF of this

RHP

Conforto
A real CF
DLC/Garcia

LHP

DLC
A real CF
Garcia

But the Conforto thing goes back to.... if they have limited money/trade assets, is Conforto that much of an upgrade over Sanchez/Bleday versus doing something in CF, upgrading Groshans (3B/1B backup), upgrading Cooper (1B starter), upgrading Rojas or Wendle (predominant SS starter), or upgrading either Catcher (strong side platoon). At best, getting someone like Conforto is like the 6th thing they can (as Jazz/Garcia/Soler are entrenched in the other spots and you may in fact bet on DLC/Sanchez/Bleday over all other positions as sad as that is, etc.)

To me, the bold is a hell yes if he is healthy, plus i dont think it necessarily has to be an either or proposition. You can sign conforto and trade pablo for an Arizona outfielder. It doesnt have to be one or the other. Granted, whether he will stay healthy is a big if, but they have access to the medical records and can tell. This is not a minor upgrade, we're talking about a top 10 player at his position regardless of what OF position he plays. He gets on base and draws walks with the best of them, and he has amazing pure power. 5 seasons above .344 OBP, 4 seasons above .494 Sluging percentage. 3 of his 5 full seasons in the big leagues over 27 hr's, and one of the one's he didnt have above 27 hr's was the shortened year and he would have had it not been for the shortened year. we're talking about a guy who was producing like one of the best corner OF's in baseball consistently for a 4 year period. If he's healthy, it's a no brainer.

[fish16]

Mish confirms we are interested in Cueto with the obvious caveat that it only comes with a pitcher (pablo) trade. He also said last night however that he had not heard conforto's name mentioned at all.

[lou]

To me, the bold is a hell yes if he is healthy, plus i dont think it necessarily has to be an either or proposition. You can sign conforto and trade pablo for an Arizona outfielder. It doesnt have to be one or the other. Granted, whether he will stay healthy is a big if, but they have access to the medical records and can tell. This is not a minor upgrade, we're talking about a top 10 player at his position regardless of what OF position he plays. He gets on base and draws walks with the best of them, and he has amazing pure power. 5 seasons above .344 OBP, 4 seasons above .494 Sluging percentage. 3 of his 5 full seasons in the big leagues over 27 hr's, and one of the one's he didnt have above 27 hr's was the shortened year and he would have had it not been for the shortened year. we're talking about a guy who was producing like one of the best corner OF's in baseball consistently for a 4 year period. If he's healthy, it's a no brainer.

Arizona needs years of control, it's Rogers/Luzardo/Cabrera, but yes something like Luzardo/Salas/prospect would get them Varsho/Mantiply/more prospects I imagine quickly, and if Pablo is Danny Jansen/O. Martinez.... Or Luiz Arraez/E. Rodriguez..... or Peraza/Periera..... or Rosario/prospects.... sign Cueto to be the 5th SP and now they are a Conforto/Drury and RHP RP away from having a pretty cohesive team. 3 major bat upgrades and 1 SP is lost because of Cueto, plus likely adding prospects in the process.

We can hope for the creativity.

[fish16]

Arizona needs years of control, it's Rogers/Luzardo/Cabrera, but yes something like Luzardo/Salas/prospect would get them Varsho/Mantiply/more prospects I imagine quickly, and if Pablo is Danny Jansen/O. Martinez.... Or Luiz Arraez/E. Rodriguez..... or Peraza/Periera..... or Rosario/prospects.... sign Cueto to be the 5th SP and now they are a Conforto/Drury and RHP RP away from having a pretty cohesive team. 3 major bat upgrades and 1 SP is lost because of Cueto, plus likely adding prospects in the process.

We can hope for the creativity.

if they want years of control, do it with prospects like Eder, Meyer, Fulton, or give them rogers and see what that gets you. Luzardo and Cabrera are too young, too cheap, and under control for too long for them to be the ones that go when we have all these other prospects and guys like rogers, Garrett, and Pablo.

[lou]

if they want years of control, do it with prospects like Eder, Meyer, Fulton, or give them rogers and see what that gets you. Luzardo and Cabrera are too young, too cheap, and under control for too long for them to be the ones that go when we have all these other prospects and guys like rogers, Garrett, and Pablo.

Eder/Meyer/Fulton have fraction of value as the MLB guys. Luzardo/Garrett are high volatile pitch mix guys - pumping secondary pitches. Highest injury risks.

IMO, if we are going to bet who stays healthiest of the current 5 SP (ignoring Pablo, we all agree with 2 years of control he is an eventual move whether now or next year), it's Sandy, Rogers, Cabrera, Garret, Luzardo. That's not a ranking of who is the best, just health probability. Then add to that the years of control Sandy-5, Rogers-4, Cabrera-6, Garrett-6, Luzardo-4. And that Luzardo is a super2 so he is second most expensive.

Just saying here, if we have to trade two, best option is Pablo and Garrett to me (least control, least upside/volatile pitch mix), and if it's 3, it's probably Luzardo (worst pitch mix for injuries, second most expensive over 4 years). Basically, I'd bet Rogers over him and I love Luzardo.

Everyone should be available, but if we want to nitpick, I think the ideal 2024 rotation is Sandy/Eury/Rogers/Cabrera and let Veteran/Meyer/Eder/Sixto/Fulton duke it out for the last spot or spots.

Its sad they can't just keep them and sign people.

[rmc523]

The Giants are apparently postponing Carlos Correa's introduction due to a medical issue, and they're "awaiting test results." Interesting...

[fish16]

And now the giants failed correas physical and the Mets sign him despite not having a need at ss and with luxury tax their payroll is now projected for 495 million when the previous high for a payroll in league history was 350. Why even watch this sport?

[Lee Stone]

And now the giants failed correas physical and the Mets sign him despite not having a need at ss and with luxury tax their payroll is now projected for 495 million when the previous high for a payroll in league history was 350. Why even watch this sport?

Because the Mets haven't won a single game yet.

[Namaste]

It would be so amazing if the Mets win 94 games and get bounced in the NLDS

[Namaste]

The Mets luxury tax ($110 million) will potentially be higher than 1/3 of MLB teams entire payroll. Cool.

[fish16]

Because the Mets haven't won a single game yet.

no one has won a single game yet, doesnt mean they arent lightyears ahead of us. They took a team that won over 100 games and re-signed nimmo and diaz, upgraded degrom with verlander, and then added correa, senga, quintana, narvaez, ottavino, and robertson. The playoffs are a crapshoot because of the small sample but we arent anywhere close to them no matter what we do, which so far has been nothing.

[rmc523]

Meanwhile the Angels signed Drury for 2/17, which apparently we can't afford. As usual, we were "interested" but didn't get anything done.

So basically we're back to square 1 of we're not doing anything apparently.