given that we consistently love to take upper minors relievers to cheap out on the bullpen, i can also see victor vodnik from the braves. Great stuff, sub par control- the ideal marlins reliever.
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Originally posted by lou View Post
I'd take a right handed reliever like you said. That's likely the best bet to stick.
After that it would be a hail mary CF or some sort of infielder and just kicking Groshans and LeBlanc to AAA as they have options remaining.
This is pretty set IMO:
Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (or they'd get a larger upgrade)
Jazz
Wendle, Rojas (or they'd get a larger upgrade)
Berti, Groshans/Leblanc (can keep both in AAA so maybe some sort of middle infield type if opportunistic)
DLC, Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar (everyone has options). I can't see them adding someone else here to the corner situation. They like DLC and will play Garcia
______ < -- If they get an Uggla for CF here, I will shit my pants
Garcia
Soler
Sandy/Pablo/Rogers/Luzardo/Garret/Cabrera
_____, _____, Floro, Chargois (Brazoban, Nance, Soriano, Villalobos all have options)
Okert, Bleier, Scott (and Castano is OOO so they'd keep him over a righty or DFA him)
If they are going bat, I'd take this guy for CF also (he is a legit CF). Mets fans were surprised he wasn't protected as they were expecting him to be optionable last guy on the bench. - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ja...ts?position=OF
No real hopes of anything here, but the right handed reliever market seems like something they are good at. Also doesn't it say something if the Pirates (low depth) don't protect someone. The Dodgers/Rays have insane depth so their guys might be pretty OK as they have no other choice, but like you said, may be a year away so they may get kicked back and are the Marlins going to try and win or circle 2024? Misner is someone the Pirates should take as they suck, etc.
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if they dont go after a legit CF prospect, i wouldnt mind at all a "change of scenery" type former top prospect who is an actual CF who has struggled like Kelenic or Adell. Obviously the best option is to get a legit prospect who hasnt yet struggled at the ML level or a guy who has had very little time, but Adell and Kelenic are uber talented, actual CF's, and depending on the price a solid fallback option. Both still just 23. Would wonder what it would take as both of those teams are trying to win and have superstars in CF already in Trout and rodriguez. Both could use pitching as well which we have plenty of. Wouldnt trade pablo for either of them unless there are more pieces, but theres a deal that can be worked out there if those guys are available at all.
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the more i look into him the more i like Nunez from the pirates. He's super young, only 21, baseball reference had him 3 years younger than his comptetion in AA between the Pirates and Cardinals system, and his profile seems like someone who really has the approach to be able to be stashed on the roster all year and not be a trainwreck like Campbell and elieser were. Pipeline has him at 12th in a decent pirates system. When projecting guys, aside from obvious pure counting stats like homers and OPS, i think k/BB ratio is a big barometer for how guys will perform at higher levels, especially when they are so young for the competition.
Jose salas for instance didnt have these unreal numbers, but at 19 in A and A+ ball, he held his own with a decent 95/43 K/BB ratio in 412 AB's. Also, looking at his stats, i had no idea how well he did stealing bases last year. 33/34 is pretty crazy.
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Originally posted by fish16 View Post
Completely agree that relievers are the easiest thing to consistently find in the rule 5 draft, but I think there is a market as well that can be capitalized on for corner infielder/corner outfielder/DH types. A lot of the guys i highlighted above fit that mold. Obviously, our biggest needs are long-term SS, C, and CF, but that's not something you really find in the rule 5 draft because of how valuable those types of guys are and how unlikely it is that any guys at that position with real potential get risked in the rule 5 draft. Other than relievers, I think you look for guys that were in the Garrett Cooper situation, although he got dealt to us with Caleb smith before the rule 5 draft when the Yankees had a roster crunch. You look at guys in the upper minors of the best teams in the league with upper minors track records and are really only left off the 40 man because of roster crunches. You look to guys on the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers, and maybe the rays because of how much talent they have in the system. That's why i think getting Misner back is a good opportunity, plus the guys on the dodgers and astros that i mentioned.
I don't think C is a high organizational need though. Fortes is good, Stallings should be good enough, there is growth potential for Banfield and McIntosh, and they have two real solid lower minor catchers with Mack and Hernandez. They should find some AAAA catcher (like a Wallach) and put him in AAA off the 40 man since they kicked Henry, and do their usual draft a super athletic guy rounds 3/4 to keep taking swings at them and hope you are right every 4 years. I'd actually argue, they are good at this scouting wise (Barnes, Nola, Realmuto, Fortes), but maybe this regime has different scouts. This could change quickly if Fortes drops below a 1 WAR player and Stallings is a dud again, Mack/Hernandez have duds this year, and Banfield shows no late growth (played better end of the year). But I suspect there is some good news here from more than 1 of them where this position is "fine."
I'd say:
Major needs - longterm play now CF and SS
Medium need/Major needs in a year - longterm 1B, but would be nice to upgrade *now*
Moderate needs - longterm 3B and corner OF (as Garcia/Groshans/DLC/Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar/LeBlanc/Johnston are talent, but are there above average starters here? What's in system after this beyond position changes for Salas/Cappe in 2-3 years and a stop gap year for Berti or Wendle?), as well as play-now RHP relievers. Optimistically, they do nothing here and all of this moves down a notch next year, but some horror performances could move this up. I have medium confidence here this will be alright.
Opportunistic Depth needs - C, DH, SP. See above C, then a Soler/Berry/OF reject trickle down, and they have a lot of SP right now even if you can always use more. This seems fine for a few years if not more.
We good - Lefty relievers and 2B. Pipeline is good with Nardi/Simpson/Reynolds and potential RP conversions with Garret/Eder/Fulton if they don't remain starters, and Jazz to Salas/Cappe/Watson/Lewis/Morisette seems like an internal plan for the next decade. Hopefully we get to put CF, SS, and another position or two here by the summer.
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Catcher is obviously below SS and CF, but i dont trust that Fortes will be above average offensively. Even last year, it felt like he was so good a lot in part due to Stallings being so incredibly awful. The numbers are pretty mediocre, but so were JT's his first year so who knows.
id put longterm 3b a level up though. We have needed a long term stud 3b since the day Cabrera was dealt.. 1b we havent had a long term stud since delgado's 1 year here. Every other position on the team has had long term studs as you'd expect since the mid 2000s, but we've had nothing but retreads for years at 1b and 3b. Our WAR leader at 1b by year since 2007- Jacobs, Cantu, Gaby, Gaby, Carlos Lee, Lomo, Garrett Jones, Bour x4, Cooper, Aguilar for 2, then cooper again last year. 3b is even more bleek- Cantu, Bonifacio, Helms, Dobbs, Hanley, Polanco, Mcgehee, Prado for 2 years, Dietrich for a year, then anderson for 5. Just horrific. For once id like to have those positions locked down with quality young players and not the most recent veteran of the moment.
I think corner OF is fine for the next 2 years. Maybe i agree that they have a moderate need for a surefire long term piece in either corner OF spot, but i think those spots have enough talent mixed with vets to find good production for this year and next. Garcia isnt great but he's a lot better than he was last year and he came into last year out of shape after the lockout and probably eating well for a few months after signing the big deal. I expect a bounce back from him. Still terrible contract though. soler if he is healthy will be a good enough stop gap as well. And then you have Bleday, Sanchez, and Burdick as young pieces with talent, plus guys you can move from the infield like cooper.
I think the key will be how Schumaker uses the young pieces to their strengths. We need to see more out of bleday, but Sanchez hits righties really well and Burdick is a lefty killer. I think Burdick needs a few more months in AAA, but overall, It's ok in the absence of a bonifide stud to just use guys at their strengths, and that was my biggest issue with mattingly, he never knew how to get more out of a team than the sum of its parts, which is what you have to do when you are operating from a financial disadvantage. maybe not this year, but a future platoon of Burdick and Sanchez can be really successful.Last edited by fish16; 12-02-2022, 02:03 PM.
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Originally posted by fish16 View PostCatcher is obviously below SS and CF, but i dont trust that Fortes will be above average offensively. Even last year, it felt like he was so good a lot in part due to Stallings being so incredibly awful. The numbers are pretty mediocre, but so were JT's his first year so who knows.
id put longterm 3b a level up though. We have needed a long term stud 3b since the day Cabrera was dealt.. 1b we havent had a long term stud since delgado's 1 year here. Every other position on the team has had long term studs as you'd expect since the mid 2000s, but we've had nothing but retreads for years at 1b and 3b. Our WAR leader at 1b by year since 2007- Jacobs, Cantu, Gaby, Gaby, Carlos Lee, Lomo, Garrett Jones, Bour x4, Cooper, Aguilar for 2, then cooper again last year. 3b is even more bleek- Cantu, Bonifacio, Helms, Dobbs, Hanley, Polanco, Mcgehee, Prado for 2 years, Dietrich for a year, then anderson for 5. Just horrific. For once id like to have those positions locked down with quality young players and not the most recent veteran of the moment.
I think corner OF is fine for the next 2 years. Maybe i agree that they have a moderate need for a surefire long term piece in either corner OF spot, but i think those spots have enough talent mixed with vets to find good production for this year and next. Garcia isnt great but he's a lot better than he was last year and he came into last year out of shape after the lockout and probably eating well for a few months after signing the big deal. I expect a bounce back from him. Still terrible contract though. soler if he is healthy will be a good enough stop gap as well. And then you have Bleday, Sanchez, and Burdick as young pieces with talent, plus guys you can move from the infield like cooper.
I think the key will be how Schumaker uses the young pieces to their strengths. We need to see more out of bleday, but Sanchez hits righties really well and Burdick is a lefty killer. I think Burdick needs a few more months in AAA, but overall, It's ok in the absence of a bonifide stud to just use guys at their strengths, and that was my biggest issue with mattingly, he never knew how to get more out of a team than the sum of its parts, which is what you have to do when you are operating from a financial disadvantage. maybe not this year, but a future platoon of Burdick and Sanchez can be really successful.
Also, DLC has jumped every other OF with the new swing. The future ideal LF / backup OF platoon is DLC and Sanchez/Bleday. Ideally Sanchez who can dabble in CF. I'm not sure how I became a DLC hater to, hey he might actually be good, but here we are.
But I came here to say the Red Sox signed Chris Martin for 2/$17.5 which is insane. He's a fine reliever off a peak year last year, but jesus christ these prices. He makes more than Sandy and Pablo next year and will throw 60 innings. Every Marlins pitcher is more valuable than July 31st based on these prices. When they pull the trigger, they will get a haul. Those service time tinkerings for Cabrera and Garrett look better by the league signing.
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Originally posted by lou View Post
3B is OK with Berti/whoever -> Groshans/Leblanc -> Salas/Cappe are moving there as they age. Berti/Groshans projected to be a fine platoon relatively middle of the pack and not insulting. If Berti plays like last year, it's honestly a good situation.
Also, DLC has jumped every other OF with the new swing. The future ideal LF / backup OF platoon is DLC and Sanchez/Bleday. Ideally Sanchez who can dabble in CF. I'm not sure how I became a DLC hater to, hey he might actually be good, but here we are.
But I came here to say the Red Sox signed Chris Martin for 2/$17.5 which is insane. He's a fine reliever off a peak year last year, but jesus christ these prices. He makes more than Sandy and Pablo next year and will throw 60 innings. Every Marlins pitcher is more valuable than July 31st based on these prices. When they pull the trigger, they will get a haul. Those service time tinkerings for Cabrera and Garrett look better by the league signing.
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Originally posted by lou View Post
3B is OK with Berti/whoever -> Groshans/Leblanc -> Salas/Cappe are moving there as they age. Berti/Groshans projected to be a fine platoon relatively middle of the pack and not insulting. If Berti plays like last year, it's honestly a good situation.
Also, DLC has jumped every other OF with the new swing. The future ideal LF / backup OF platoon is DLC and Sanchez/Bleday. Ideally Sanchez who can dabble in CF. I'm not sure how I became a DLC hater to, hey he might actually be good, but here we are.
But I came here to say the Red Sox signed Chris Martin for 2/$17.5 which is insane. He's a fine reliever off a peak year last year, but jesus christ these prices. He makes more than Sandy and Pablo next year and will throw 60 innings. Every Marlins pitcher is more valuable than July 31st based on these prices. When they pull the trigger, they will get a haul. Those service time tinkerings for Cabrera and Garrett look better by the league signing.
There are weirdly fringe rumors about bogaerts signing here. I dont think it would ever happen, and the back end of that deal would be terrible if they foolishly give him 6+ years, but he has been the best hitting SS in the league for the last 3 years i believe, and opening up the wallet like that without giving up assets makes the path to contention a lot more feasible. All of a sudden, you sign him, then take whichever other pitcher you want (whether its rogers, garrett, pablo, or one of the prospects) for a CF, and now were talking. Say pablo for Thomas. that leaves you with:
C- Fortes/Stallings
1b- Cooper
2b- Jazz
SS- Bogaerts
3b- Wendle/Berti
LF- Sanchez/Burdick/Bleday
CF- Thomas
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
SP- Sandy/Luzardo/Cabrera/garrett/Rogers/Eder/Eury
This team is annoyingly close to a feasible contender with an owner who makes 1 big signing for a legit star. It's unfortunate for all of us as fans that that big move is just completely unforeseeable. I know ive been super positive in the past, but it all hinged on Sherman being a legit owner when it came time to spend, and he just isn't. With the gaping hole at SS and all these guys available who can instantly transform this team like Correa, Bogaerts, Turner, it should be a no-brainer that our team as a bottom 5 payroll would be going after those guys, but we're not even in the conversation with 0 long term money aside from Garcia/Soler/Sandy, and that's nothing but discouraging. If Sherman doesn't sign a major guy this offseason, which he won't, i cant help but step back from my super fandom of this team. Why root for this team when a team a signing and a trade away just won't spend the money to make that 1 move to catapult us not necessarily to immediate contention, but at the very least the conversation? Why buy a team and just not spend money? I get the power is cool, but what's the point of buying this team in particular and just doing the same thing? why buy this team if you don't have fuck you money to spend on players? It doesn't even make business sense other than the inevitable appreciation of any sports franchise. That's my biggest question for Sherman? What was the point of buying this team?
I wish when he does his 1 press availability each year, a reporter had the balls to ask him point blank "Why should any marlins fan support this team and spend their hard-earned money to come out and cheer for this team when you, 5 years in, clearly have no intention of spending your own hard-earned money to support this team you own?" I know he would spin, but hold the fucking guy to the fire. I hate to say it, because loria was a fucking cheap moron as well, but i knew what his ultimate goal was, even if he had 0 business sense on how to get there in this market.
And At least with loria, as cheap and dumb as he was, he clearly wanted to win. That's obviously despite his misguided opinion on how to get there, but i had no question as to whether loria actually cared about winning. Sherman? I couldnt tell you whether he actually wants to win.Last edited by fish16; 12-02-2022, 06:30 PM.
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Originally posted by fish16 View PostAnd At least with loria, as cheap and dumb as he was, he clearly wanted to win. That's obviously despite his misguided opinion on how to get there, but i had no question as to whether loria actually cared about winning. Sherman? I couldnt tell you whether he actually wants to win.
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Originally posted by Nick View Post
Nah, I can't get behind this. Loria and Sherman both wanted to win. You know how I know this? Because no one wants to lose. For both it seems squeaking out a profit by being cheap as possible trumps winning or spending something to build a franchise in Miami. The difference between Loria and Sherman so far is we know Loria was constantly meddling in the affairs of the FO and it doesn't seem like that's the case with Sherman. They both suck.
His first year in 2018, our payroll was essentially 100 million, since then by year, its 71, 41, 56, then 79 this past year. Even in 2018, the highest year, that payroll was inevitable. 50.3 of the 100 went to Prado, Tazawa, Ziegler, Chen, and Starlin. Guys who were untradeable. 2019, we cut payroll by 28 million and were 29/30 out of all teams in spending, 20 million was chen, 15 was prado, and 11 was starlin. 46 million were those complete bum assets. Since then, in 2020, we were 27th in payroll. In 2021, 28th in payroll, Last year, a whopping 26th in payroll at 95 million. Make no mistake, we will never be the dodgers, but the league average payroll was 165 million, meaning if we were at least league average in competing with every other team in terms of money, we're talking about an additional payroll of $70 million to just be league average. Imagine if we were just a league average payroll and we could find an ownership group to give us that in a Hispanic market. Its ridiculous.
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Originally posted by fish16 View Postjacob degrom officially out of the nl east. to the rangers. not sure what theyre overall goal is, but theyve dedicated to 3 highly prone to crazy swing guys in semien, seager, and degrom. seems highly unlikely to pan out well for them.
They are operating like a real organization and getting upgrades for when their kids are ready. i.e. why the Marlins should sign Correa.
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Originally posted by fish16 View Post
not going to get into the berti conversation again because we obviously disagree, but i think berti/whoever to groshans/leblanc is screaming desperately for an upgrade. That is not a good situation unless you have stars throughout the rest of your lineup and your 3b is at the 8 or 9 spot in the order. Berti is just not a good hitter. he is a nice utility guy with speed, but 2 years straight of being well below league average hitting, this past year at 93 WRC+ and 2021 at 77. He should not be a starter, especially at a corner infield spot. Weirdly, if we're in the terrible spot where we dont do anything to upgrade SS, i would prefer Berti everyday over Rojas at SS, but... I know youre going to try to convert his steals into his OPS, but his OPS is what it is, and he steals bases. Those two things can be taken together with context, but i dont subscribe to the whole argument where you treat him as a .750 OPS guy using his steals. He's a super utility bench guy with speed. Trade Rojas, get a real SS and long term 3b, and let berti flourish in his ideal role as a super utility guy with speed off the bench when he doesnt start.
This team is annoyingly close to a feasible contender with an owner who makes 1 big signing for a legit star. It's unfortunate for all of us as fans that that big move is just completely unforeseeable. I know ive been super positive in the past, but it all hinged on Sherman being a legit owner when it came time to spend, and he just isn't.
I wish when he does his 1 press availability each year, a reporter had the balls to ask him point blank "Why should any marlins fan support this team and spend their hard-earned money to come out and cheer for this team when you, 5 years in, clearly have no intention of spending your own hard-earned money to support this team you own?" I know he would spin, but hold the fucking guy to the fire.
Also agree this only works if you have some big production elsewhere, rinse/repeat sign Correa/Big SS/Nimmo, trade for Arizona CF/Rosario/Peraza, and a healthy Jazz/Cooper, rebounds from Soler/Garcia/Stallings, and growth from DLC/Fortes/Sanchez/Bleday gives you a fighting chance. Anything less is probably a .500 team absent everyone becoming Sandy.
Can we edit that press question to this: "Why should any marlins fan support this team and spend their hard-earned money to come out and cheer for this team when you, 5 years in, clearly have no intention of spending your own hard-earned money to support this team you own, and as a direct follow up, if your position is you can't spend money on the team because no one goes to the games, why should any marlins fan support this team and spend their hard-earned money to come out and cheer for this team when you, 5 years in, clearly have no intention of spending your own hard-earned money to support this team you own." Let's throw 2 punches at once and anticipate the obvious spin.
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Originally posted by fish16 View Post
That wasnt pro loria as much as it was anti sherman. If it seemed pro loria, it was my bad. Loria was a complete and utter cheap buffoon who had no idea how to operate a small market team, but there were at least times i saw "going for it" when the "time" came, even when sometimes it was nonsensical. For example, trading chris paddack for a clearly out performing his peripherals Fernando Rodney. I can at least respect a misguided attempt to spend money to improve the team. For Sherman, has there been anything done in 5 years that you can say shows a next step from inheriting a major league team with hitting talent and 0 pitching after jose died to building a contender that shows that he's down to spend money to actually improve the team other than stupid signings of soler and a terrible deal for garcia? Because i cant. It's been 5 years. Its a fucking shame that the 2020 playoffs were all on the road during the pandemic and that entire season of lost revenue throws a wrench into the evaluation, but this guy is loria part 2 but worse, without any kind of outgoing clear desire to at the very least care about winning. Is there a single thing that sherman has done that indicates he actually gives a single fuck about a winning team? Like i said a few days ago, they will spin the soler and garcia signings as spending 100 million, but its over 5 years, plus they hoped soler would opt out. Thats a normal offseason for any competent team. To trot that out as some sort of commitment to winning is such a gaslight to the fanbase.
His first year in 2018, our payroll was essentially 100 million, since then by year, its 71, 41, 56, then 79 this past year. Even in 2018, the highest year, that payroll was inevitable. 50.3 of the 100 went to Prado, Tazawa, Ziegler, Chen, and Starlin. Guys who were untradeable. 2019, we cut payroll by 28 million and were 29/30 out of all teams in spending, 20 million was chen, 15 was prado, and 11 was starlin. 46 million were those complete bum assets. Since then, in 2020, we were 27th in payroll. In 2021, 28th in payroll, Last year, a whopping 26th in payroll at 95 million. Make no mistake, we will never be the dodgers, but the league average payroll was 165 million, meaning if we were at least league average in competing with every other team in terms of money, we're talking about an additional payroll of $70 million to just be league average. Imagine if we were just a league average payroll and we could find an ownership group to give us that in a Hispanic market. Its ridiculous.
I fucking hate the current ownership, but Jeff Loria was possibly the worst owner in the history of the league.
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