2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Mish and Barry Jackson's latest article says rogers is the one getting the most interest as the pitcher they would trade for hitting. If they trade just rogers, keep pablo, then let him walk in 2 years, that is incompetence of the highest order. Or if his shoulder injuries come back and his value is gone. Just so stupid. If they wanted to keep him, they should have signed him long term when his value was lower and he had more years of control left. This front office has 0 foresight.

[sports24/7]

If they were willing to spend $18-20m on Abreu, payroll expectations would be $90-95m (keeping Cooper, Pablo, one of Rojas/Wendle). Certainly there would be room to cut with just moving on from three of those guys (sheds $15m to get you back around $80-85 adding a club controlled CF and RP), and then stopgap cheap pitching may push that to $90m as they'd need to sign 150 innings minimum still.

So maybe we can glean $90m is the upper threshold here. That'll be tough for Correa. It would be a pipe dream at this payroll absent shedding a lot more money (Stallings, Berti, Floro, Scott, and Okert/Chargois, and replacing all with club-controlled players).

But you can *easily* fit Correa into $100m:

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper, LeBlanc
Jazz
Correa, Rojas
Berti
DLC, Sanchez
"Arizona CF"
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers
____, Floro, Chargois, Nance
Scott, Bleier, Okert, Castano

=Roughly $98m (and deferring say $4m of Correa to a decade out which is not unreasonable). They'll have to skimp on the last RP, but I think we'd all be OK with that and pray Correa and the Arizona CF are immense upgrades that help everyone, and Castano/Sixto can be legitimate 6/7th SP until the bigger names are ready midseason.

Wendle - traded for prospects
Pablo - traded for prospects
"Arizona CF" - traded with prospects, or Rogers is used and they turn Pablo/Wendle into a young controlled SP and wait for reinforcements

Even better if you get a 1 year 1B/OF type and kick Sanchez to AAA for now, and that helps Cooper and maybe LeBlanc is swapped for Groshans as it'll be a more stringent 3B platoon.


Basically, you can nickel and dime Correa into $100m, and especially $110m as they'd have room for legitimate stopgap SP/RP or 1B/OF as needed at that point. Which I don't understand why they won't do with Correa or whoever, as the team is very club-controlled for the next 2 years with contracts coming off the books so payroll won't raise in 24/25 from $100m, and in 2026, your major liabilities would only be Sandy ($17.3m), Jazz arbitration 3 (could be $10m+ easily), Luzardo and Rogers if still around would be in final years of arbitration also (could also easily be over $10m each), and then only very limited guys are in Arb1 or Arb2. Effectively, Correa, Sandy, Jazz, Luzardo, and Rogers could cost $75m for the 5 of them.... but you'd have 12-15 club controlled guys (like Mack, Berry, Watson, Eury, Fulton, Eder, Meyer, etc. - $10m) after them, and maybe 5-8 guys (Cabrera, Fortes, Groshans, DLC/LFers) in low arbitration so maybe they all collectively make $15-25m. So your payroll in 2026 might scale to $110m internally, and you'd have opportunities to move payroll (notably Luzardo/Rogers) as maybe Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Fulton/Eder/Garrett, and Luzardo/Rogers is enough for the rotation so you can effectively shed the 2nd most expensive guy as not needed? Maybe Miller is ready by then and works out? This is the broken record - they have so much high end MLB control, especially with the pitchers future salaries who are going to be so Effing low salary wise for a very long time, they can afford a star offensive bat and STILL have a bottom-ish payroll lower than Milwaukee. Simply stated, Bruce is just that cheap. And this ignores any deal Correa signs likely has a 3 year opt out so maybe he goes POOF from this anyways and 2026 is the same as this offseason, 22+ guys for roughly $75m and what are they going to do?


But $90m and under is going to be a shit show absent some really radical trades and then the kids being "2022 Jazz" immediately, and they get continued SP improvements.

Allowing myself to put on my "hope" hat for a minute. Offering Abreu in the neighborhood of $20M per year, doesn't necessarily mean that's the cap on what they were prepared to spend in the offseason. I don't see how they go into next season without adding some BP arms at the very least, and they could also be looking to spend a little more elsewhere. So if they're prepared to add that kind of payroll, it would be foolhardy to not be willing to spend a little more to land an actual proven commodity in their prime like a Correa or Turner. You'd still be very much in the bottom 3rd in payroll, and making money, while actually having a chance to win game, draw fans, and build some goodwill.

OR, you could sign Dansby Swanson, who probably isn't going to command much more than that on a yearly basis, and will provide you, at minimum, decent play at one of the most important positions in baseball, with the upside for all-star play at the position.

I have little faith that this will happen, but the mentality that you were ready to pay a 35 year old around $20M for multiple seasons, but won't spend on players in their prime even if it means keeping a more than reasonable payroll is very, very stupid to me.

[sports24/7]

im so fucking tired of "being in on X free agent who just signed elsewhere" for reasonable money. At a certain point, its not enough. we have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball still and they have shown 0 indication to actually spend money on anyone significant. The front office tries to play this rhetorical trick of "oh we spent $100 million on Garcia and Soler" when really thats $100 million over 4-5 years, and i can guarantee you they were hoping soler went off last year so he would have opted out. Plus garcia was an obviously terrible investment from the second that contract was started and we all acknowledged that. They need to open up the wallet this offseason or quite frankly im done supporting this team. Theyve already made it so that i refuse to go to games, im pretty damn close to just following the team casually. Why should any one spend their money to support this team when the owner wont even spend his own money to support the team.

Ive said it for the last year or so, but we need an owner with a big wallet and a long term vision. Mediocre additions wont put this team over the top, and not being a good team means continued terrible fan base. A good owner would realize that a big initial investment would go a long way to making this team successful and with a more consistently engaged fanbae. Instead of waiting for the fan base to show up before spending money, we need an owner with vision who will do everything in their power to MAKE the fanbase show up. Expecting a damaged fanbase to come out and show support before you spend money is just asking to remain in this middling tread of low payroll mediocrity.

It's frustrating, but that's the nature of being the Marlins. You have very little draw outside of no state income tax, and maybe location for some players. All things being equal, you're usually going to lose out on players. So for that, I don't blame the current front office. In fact, that's part of the reason you have to give bad contracts to the Garcia's and Soler's of the world. To me, it's much more frustrating when we hear that a trade was close, but they couldn't get it across the line. That's something you can control, and just failed.

[lou]

im so fucking tired of "being in on X free agent who just signed elsewhere" for reasonable money. At a certain point, its not enough. we have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball still and they have shown 0 indication to actually spend money on anyone significant. The front office tries to play this rhetorical trick of "oh we spent $100 million on Garcia and Soler" when really thats $100 million over 4-5 years, and i can guarantee you they were hoping soler went off last year so he would have opted out. Plus garcia was an obviously terrible investment from the second that contract was started and we all acknowledged that. They need to open up the wallet this offseason or quite frankly im done supporting this team. Theyve already made it so that i refuse to go to games, im pretty damn close to just following the team casually. Why should any one spend their money to support this team when the owner wont even spend his own money to support the team.

Ive said it for the last year or so, but we need an owner with a big wallet and a long term vision. Mediocre additions wont put this team over the top, and not being a good team means continued terrible fan base. A good owner would realize that a big initial investment would go a long way to making this team successful and with a more consistently engaged fanbae. Instead of waiting for the fan base to show up before spending money, we need an owner with vision who will do everything in their power to MAKE the fanbase show up. Expecting a damaged fanbase to come out and show support before you spend money is just asking to remain in this middling tread of low payroll mediocrity.

To quib, Abreu wasn't reasonable for this time.

But yes, I think we were all on the bold. We did all say this in March/April, but we are suckers. Fool me once Bruce, shame on you, fool me twice.... casual fanship until you decide to operate as a real MLB franchise. Should I buy an Orioles or Mariners hat?

[lou]

Mish and Barry Jackson's latest article says rogers is the one getting the most interest as the pitcher they would trade for hitting. If they trade just rogers, keep pablo, then let him walk in 2 years, that is incompetence of the highest order. Or if his shoulder injuries come back and his value is gone. Just so stupid. If they wanted to keep him, they should have signed him long term when his value was lower and he had more years of control left. This front office has 0 foresight.

And this isn't correct, it depends on what other moves they make as mentioned exponential times. Rogers for A. Thomas is FINE. What's coming back? Pablo is their 3rd best player after all and is an asset.

[lou]

Allowing myself to put on my "hope" hat for a minute. Offering Abreu in the neighborhood of $20M per year, doesn't necessarily mean that's the cap on what they were prepared to spend in the offseason. I don't see how they go into next season without adding some BP arms at the very least, and they could also be looking to spend a little more elsewhere. So if they're prepared to add that kind of payroll, it would be foolhardy to not be willing to spend a little more to land an actual proven commodity like a Correa or Turner. You'd still be very much in the bottom 3rd in payroll, and making money, while actually having a chance to win game, draw fans, and build some goodwill.

OR, you could sign Dansby Swanson, who probably isn't going to command much more than that on a yearly basis, and will provide you, at minimum, decent play at one of the most important positions in baseball, with the upside for all-star play at the position.

I have little faith that this will happen, but the mentality that you were ready to pay a 35 year old around $20M for multiple seasons, but won't spend on players in their prime even if it means keeping a more than reasonable payroll is very, very stupid to me.

Agree in full.

Also, you can do the same math with Nimmo + Rosario, and using Pablo as the Rosario trade (Rosario + a solid prospect). That's a good 2-1 trade for everyone TBH and Fish16 can stop obsessing trading Rogers versus Pablo.

But they then need to sign Nimmo to that "Werth" deal, presumably $120+m and extend Rosario for say 5/$65. Team makes *a lot* of sense doing that and is sub $100m for sure. Make it $110m and add Zach Eflin type arm, and that team looks really really solid with major upside. We can dream.

[rmc523]

She isn't wrong about the luck (health), but that just gets them to high 70s wins. If their expectation is that alone can get them to high 80s wins without making some large changes, they are wrong. Nearly everyone would have to play to their best season of the last 3-4 years to crack into a top 6-10 offense.

I don't disagree that health played a role in the poor play, but if all they're doing is counting for a healthy roster to bring them into contention, then they're delusional. They went into the season with glaring holes, yet still expected to compete. I expected around a .500 team, and with health they might get around there, but that's not enough.

im so fucking tired of "being in on X free agent who just signed elsewhere" for reasonable money. At a certain point, its not enough. we have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball still and they have shown 0 indication to actually spend money on anyone significant. The front office tries to play this rhetorical trick of "oh we spent $100 million on Garcia and Soler" when really thats $100 million over 4-5 years, and i can guarantee you they were hoping soler went off last year so he would have opted out. Plus garcia was an obviously terrible investment from the second that contract was started and we all acknowledged that. They need to open up the wallet this offseason or quite frankly im done supporting this team. Theyve already made it so that i refuse to go to games, im pretty damn close to just following the team casually. Why should any one spend their money to support this team when the owner wont even spend his own money to support the team.

Ive said it for the last year or so, but we need an owner with a big wallet and a long term vision. Mediocre additions wont put this team over the top, and not being a good team means continued terrible fan base. A good owner would realize that a big initial investment would go a long way to making this team successful and with a more consistently engaged fanbae. Instead of waiting for the fan base to show up before spending money, we need an owner with vision who will do everything in their power to MAKE the fanbase show up. Expecting a damaged fanbase to come out and show support before you spend money is just asking to remain in this middling tread of low payroll mediocrity.

That's how I am already. I might have tuned into 3 or 4 games' worth of innings all year last year adding them together. I'm not wasting my time or money on this team until they show they actually want to do what needs to be done.

[lou]

I don't disagree that health played a role in the poor play, but if all they're doing is counting for a healthy roster to bring them into contention, then they're delusional. They went into the season with glaring holes, yet still expected to compete. I expected around a .500 team, and with health they might get around there, but that's not enough.

.

Totally. Fangraphs actually has them at 79 wins right now (Mets/Phillies 84 and Braves 96(!)). That also includes them getting some production out of keeping both of Wendle/Rojas at SS and the litany of PA to all the fleeting LF masquerading as CF, so it's probably closer to 77+ wins if we're assuming two bat upgrades are coming to replace those guys. Effectively, they need to add 10 wins this offseason, which becomes even more problematic where if Pablo/Rogers are moved, it's 12 wins minimum to get squarely above the Mets and Phillies (and that's ignoring each is likely going to sign a few guys to bump themselves up).

Correa, an Arizona CF, 2 cheap-ish free agent arm replacements, and then getting repeats of elite (5+ WAR) Sandy and Jazz level production, and at least 1-2 other larger breakout of someone becoming a 3+ WAR player (Luzardo? Cabrera? Arizona CF? DLC pure statcast explosion? Soler going all 2019?) would be the most probable contending path for them.

That probably still works with Nimmo/Rosario/FA arms, and Marlins breakout production.


I'm not sure how you do it without getting at least Nimmo/Swanson unless you circle 2024.

[fish16]

not sure if anyone posted this since the list came out on november 10th but baseball america posted their marlins top 10. Eury, Meyer, Berry, Salas, Cappe, SIXTO, Eder, Fulton, Burdick, Groshans. They are crazy high on Eury and see him as surefire of an ace as their can be. Also, if berry can pan out thats a huge piece moving forward, they say likely as a 1b or DH masher type with limited availability in the field.

They crazy thing is sixto's pitch grades are still ridiculously high somehow despite not having thrown a pitch since the playoffs going on 3 years ago. They say he should be ready for spring, and obviously we'll wait to see because he has given no one any hope that he will ever return, but if he can ever get healthy we havent lost any years of team control and that would make another huge piece either in the rotation or in the back end of the bullpen with his stuff. But obviously no one is holding their breath on him ever pitching for us again.

[fish16]

great hire for the blue jays with mattingly as bench coach. ive been saying for years he's a terrible manager but hed be a great bench coach

[lou]

not sure if anyone posted this since the list came out on november 10th but baseball america posted their marlins top 10. Eury, Meyer, Berry, Salas, Cappe, SIXTO, Eder, Fulton, Burdick, Groshans. They are crazy high on Eury and see him as surefire of an ace as their can be. Also, if berry can pan out thats a huge piece moving forward, they say likely as a 1b or DH masher type with limited availability in the field.

They crazy thing is sixto's pitch grades are still ridiculously high somehow despite not having thrown a pitch since the playoffs going on 3 years ago. They say he should be ready for spring, and obviously we'll wait to see because he has given no one any hope that he will ever return, but if he can ever get healthy we havent lost any years of team control and that would make another huge piece either in the rotation or in the back end of the bullpen with his stuff. But obviously no one is holding their breath on him ever pitching for us again.

I believe this was mentioned, but yes it's crazy Sixto is that high. I hope it's a compliment to him and not an insult to others. We can hope. But Watson? Mack? I'd get Sixto and Burdick out of there and add those two after Fulton. Sixto can be in the teens for pure upside.

Also not that it is the best but I looked as a reference, MLB pipeline added X. Edwards in the mid-teens after I. Lewis. That's an immense drop from where other places had him earlier this year. Still a fine trade to get him, but hopefully he is a bit better than that and the Marlins can find some untapped potential there. He had a really good BB/K so hopefully he figures it out.

[sports24/7]

not sure if anyone posted this since the list came out on november 10th but baseball america posted their marlins top 10. Eury, Meyer, Berry, Salas, Cappe, SIXTO, Eder, Fulton, Burdick, Groshans. They are crazy high on Eury and see him as surefire of an ace as their can be. Also, if berry can pan out thats a huge piece moving forward, they say likely as a 1b or DH masher type with limited availability in the field.

They crazy thing is sixto's pitch grades are still ridiculously high somehow despite not having thrown a pitch since the playoffs going on 3 years ago. They say he should be ready for spring, and obviously we'll wait to see because he has given no one any hope that he will ever return, but if he can ever get healthy we havent lost any years of team control and that would make another huge piece either in the rotation or in the back end of the bullpen with his stuff. But obviously no one is holding their breath on him ever pitching for us again.

If Berry becomes a 1B or DH "masher type" that would be a huge boon IMO. I think a more realistic, glass-half-full, outlook for him is a professional hitter type that has a solid average/OBP, and ok power numbers.

[fish16]

If Berry becomes a 1B or DH "masher type" that would be a huge boon IMO. I think a more realistic, glass-half-full, outlook for him is a professional hitter type that has a solid average/OBP, and ok power numbers.

i completely agree. i said when he was drafted that i hate drafting those types of guys so high because if the bat isnt what it was supposed to be you have nothing. He reminded me way too much of colin moran as this "close to MLB ready bat only college guy". Moran's hit tool was not close to what it was supposed to be, and he in turn had a very short major league career. Hopefully im wrong on berry, but that's what scares me about him.

[Lee Stone]

i completely agree. i said when he was drafted that i hate drafting those types of guys so high because if the bat isnt what it was supposed to be you have nothing. He reminded me way too much of colin moran as this "close to MLB ready bat only college guy". Moran's hit tool was not close to what it was supposed to be, and he in turn had a very short major league career. Hopefully im wrong on berry, but that's what scares me about him.

You have every right to be skeptical of Berry. No speed, no glove and no power. That's a helluva situation for a guy drafted near the very top.

As to the prospect list you referred to, what a joke. Sixto is pretty much gone as a prospect. And how the heck does Meyer rate above Eder? They were both at Pensacola together, Eder was better in every way, they both had TJS, but now Eder is returning. IMO, Eder, Perez and Fulton are the top three and the only surefire prospects in the entire system.

[Namaste]

As to the prospect list you referred to, what a joke. Sixto is pretty much gone as a prospect. And how the heck does Meyer rate above Eder? They were both at Pensacola together, Eder was better in every way, they both had TJS, but now Eder is returning. IMO, Eder, Perez and Fulton are the top three and the only surefire prospects in the entire system.

Eh, I’ll take a crack at it.

Sixto: had several dominant outings in the major leagues (playoffs included)

Have Eder and Fulton ever done that?



Meyer: crushed opposing lineups several times in AAA before an injury that almost everyone ultimately gets these days.

Have Eder and Fulton done that? I honestly don’t know how high up Eder and Fulton have pitched. I know Eder got TJ.